Al-Jolani in his speech at the historic Umayyad Mosque in Damascus. . .
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tried to prove himself like the Saudi ruler MBS (Muhammad bin Salman). All the guesses proved wrong. .
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. and the Assad regime did not resist at any place even with a single bullet. In an American documentary of 2014,.
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. . Tahrir al-Sham was shown receiving American missiles and training.
The one who killed 900,000 compatriots, banished four million from his country,. . .
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has now left the country for asylum. America is calling Al-Jolani a bad-but-necessary choice. Osama Bin Laden and Haqqanis in the 1980s, by America.
. . were also supported as moderates and freedom fighters.
While the rest is history. What effect will the Syrian revolution have on the Gaza war? Will victorious Salafi-jihadi groups keep their promises after taking over Syria?
How are you, guys! I, Faisal Waraich. This is what happens with dictators.
The seemingly powerful and never-ending power ended in 10 days. So much so the last 3 major cities took less than 30 hours to fall. This was also the time when President Bashar al-Assad.
. . .
. . was negotiating his survival with the help of Turkey and Russia.
The deal stipulated that he would formally resign,. . .
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and his 55-year-old prime minister, Ghazi al-Jalali will stay in office to officially transfer power. Wherever the Syrian forces are, they will leave their weapons and uniforms and quietly move into Western Syria. The Bashar al-Assad family and close associates will be given safe passage.
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. . and the US will guarantee that Israel will not shoot down the plane carrying the Syrian president.
After making all these deals, on December 8, Bashar al-Assad. . .
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flew to the Gulf countries in a private plane. Probably after refuelling the plane or changing flight. .
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. he har reached Moscow for refuge. Russian media also confirmed that he has come to Russia to take refuge.
Obviously, if Russia will not shelter its important and old ally,. . .
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who will trust Russian power and become its ally tomorrow? So it was also vital for Russia. .
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. to somehow save its long-time ally. How much a cruel dictator is actually a coward and away from the people,.
. . .
. . has been proved by Bashar al-Assad who has left his tribe and his Alawite family alone.
The largest number of his supporters resided in the coastal region of Syria in Western Syria. There are Russian air and military bases. .
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. but Bashar al-Assad was so morally weak. .
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. that he could not even hope to support his own people. Although these are people whose scores of relatives were killed by Tahrir al-Sham and its allies.
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, and the walls are filled with pictures of those dead. The Alwite people have been fighting for 13 years for Bashar al-Assad and his safety. Their lifestyle is very different from Tahrir al-Sham.
They lived in the Western style unwilling to make religious rituals part of political laws. Hence, they live differently from Tahir al-Sham. But Bashar al-Assad left them alone.
. . .
. . preferred to flee and quit the country for the safety of his life.
Of course, they may be missing support here as well. So, without exaggeration, the best proof of the weakness of a dictator. .
. . .
. in modern history has been given by Bashar al-Assad. 54 years of dynastic rule, 24 years of personal dictatorship.
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. . , in which he killed millions of people and forced.
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. . four million people to leave the country in exile in Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon and Germany.
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. . failed to get asylum anywhere in the country, and took refuge in Russia.
Perhaps this is the reason why the Russian military also did not try to fight Tahrir al-Sham and its allies. What needed the Russians or Iran to fight when Bashar al-Assad and his forces were not ready to fight. Now reports state that in Western Syria, where the Russian forces were based,.
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. . the Russians have withdrawn some of its essential assets and forces,.
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. . and at the same time, they are also dealing with the victorious rebels through Turkey.
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. . to allow them to keep the bases.
Bear in mind Latakia and Tartus military bases. . .
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are very necessary for the Russian international power projection. Because Russia not only trades some energy through these bases. .
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. , but also controls its proxies in Libya and North Africa from these bases. Iran, on the other hand, has been completely defeated in the latest part of this civil war.
Its forces are no longer going to get a place in Syria. Rebel leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani and his associates. .
. . .
. have repeatedly announced the end of Iran's influence. They did not mention the name of the Russians so many times.
Because they believed for years that. . .
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Bashar al-Assad's support is Iran and Lebanon's Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia. They believe, the Russians for their international interests. .
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. will support anyone who would govern in Syria as Russia has no sectarian ambitions. Whoever will be the ruler, Russia will talk to him in its interest.
Now before we go further, the most important question is, who Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of Tahrir al-Sham, is? Abu Muhammad al-Jolani of 42-years was born in Saudi Arabia. .
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. but he spent his entire childhood in Damascus. He belongs to the religious family of Salafist thought,.
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. . i.
e. an advanced radical form of the Wahhabi sect, emanated from Imam Muhammad ibn Abdul-Wahhab,. .
. . .
. you might call it. Al-Jolani has mentioned in an old interview .
. . that his family, his family lived in the Golani Hills of Syria, .
. . which are now occupied by Israel.
The Golan Heights is called the "Highlands of Al-Julan" in Syriac Arabic. Accordingly, his name is Al-Jolani after the old village. It was not his family name, but he had adopted it himself.
So according to Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, his grandfather and the Muslim population of the villages. . .
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were forced to leave these areas during the Arab-Israeli War in 1967. Because Israel occupied this area. .
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. and forced most of the Arab population here to leave. At the same time, his family left the Golan Heights and came down to Damascus.
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. . and then at some point went to Saudi Arabia.
In Saudi Arabia, al-Jolani was born and then in his boyhood returned to Syria, Damascus with his patents. When the United States invaded Iraq in 2003. .
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. , 21-year-old Al-Jolani joined Al-Qaeda and moved to Iraq from Damascus. He joined the group of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the hardline leader of al-Qaeda's Iraqi branch.
Then he began targeting Americans and their pro-Iraqi Shiite groups in Iraq. For this, huge explosions were also made in public places. Al-Jolani himself says that he was against the killing of civilians,.
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. . he used to raise his voice for it among his colleagues,.
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. . but since he was not among the top leadership,.
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. . he could not stop these attacks.
This is what he says. But let us tell you. .
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. that even after that he participated in such large-scale attacks,. .
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. in which dozens of civilians were killed. So, while fighting for al-Qaeda in Iraq,.
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. . he was arrested in 2005 and sent to the notorious Iraqi desert prison "Camp Bucca".
This camp was near the Kuwaiti border and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was also imprisoned there. The same Baghdadi when released from this prison, founded Daesh, ISIS. The same ISIS whose hands are the most stained with Arab blood, after the United States.
In this prison, Al-Jolani befriended people. . .
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who went on to organize ISIS in Syria and Iraq. In 2008, when the United States changed its Iraq policy. .
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. and most of the prisoners at Camp Bucca were released on good conduct. .
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. Al-Jolani was also included among them. After being released from here, he changed his jihadi mission.
Instead of Iraq, he decided to go to Syria, his own country, to fight against the Bashar al-Assad regime. To help in this mission, he joined Daesh. .
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. and became a partner of Abu Bakr Baghdadi and. .
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. started terrible attacks on government supporters and government institutions in Syria. He formed an organization called the al-Nusra Front.
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. . and tried to gain fame as a moderate leader in the international media.
It is quite possible that Jolani was taken by America during his detention. There is no proof of this, but you will find some people saying so. Well, that was the time, after 2009,.
. . .
. . when he started getting the attention of the Turkish intelligence after the US,.
. . because these two powers were also against Bashar al-Assad.
That is, now the interests of the Syrian wing of ISIS, Al-Nusra Front,. . .
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the United States and Turkey were united. These three wanted an end to the Iranian and Russian-backed Bashar al-Assad regime. .
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. and a complete end of the Iranian-Russian military influence here. Israel also had an advantage in this.
While all this was going on, Al-Jolani distanced himself step by step from the ISIS and Al-Qaeda mindset. He assured the Americans through his links developed in jail. .
. . .
. that he was not on pan-Islamic ideology, that is he did not have the intention of global jihad. He is out of the ISIS mindset.
He is against the massacre of minorities and Shia Muslims. He had only one enemy and that is, Bashar al-Assad. After that, if there is an enemy, it is the powers that support Bashar al-Assad.
Although at the same time, al-Jolani was having secret meetings with ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. As his accomplice, he prepared a large number of youths as suicide bombers. .
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. and was hitting the official Syrian targets. The only difference was that in Syria he attacked public places less.
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. . and government institutions more.
But still, the common people were suffering huge casualties. In an interview with PBS, he said. .
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. that he would receive 50 to 60 thousand dollars from ISIS in the beginning. But gradually, Al-Jolani's links developed in Arab countries and wealthy Syrians.
Due to this, he got so many dollars. . .
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that now he used to send millions of dollars to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the main commander of ISIS in Iraq. These included the ransom money. .
. . .
. obtained by releasing the videos of the imprisoned Americans and other nationals. .
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. to their families or institutions. But in the background differences were also arising between these two leaders.
Because Al-Jolani had become a great power in Syria. Soon the differences between these two leaders became public. The media circulated an audio message from the ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
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. . that Al-Jolani and his associates in Syria are not a separate organization,.
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. . but the territory of Syria under their control is actually a part of the global Islamic government of ISIS.
In response to this public statement, the next day, an audio statement by al-Jolani was released. . .
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that he did not agree with the global Islamic government of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Baghdadi's statement is unacceptable. He clarified that we are not part of any such state.
After that, he also gave an interview to Al Jazeera Arabic channel and said. . .
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that we did not receive any message directly. "We came to know from the media that something like this is being said. " In his video statement and interview, he repeatedly emphasised.
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. . that his aim is not to establish any global Islamic state,.
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. . and he is not hostile to Western countries.
He does not plan to attack them or do any kind of adventure outside Syria. Their mission is limited to Syria only. This interview was a declaration of his ideological and organizational separation from ISIS.
Later, in mid-2016, he made it all official. It was at this time that al-Qaeda and ISIS were losing ground in Iraq. .
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. and these people were setting up sanctuaries inside Syria. Al-Jolani also changed the name of his organization from Al-Nusra Front to.
. . .
. . Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, meaning the Organization for the Liberation of Syria.
He also brought together dozens of small and large opposition and fighter groups,. . .
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the largest of which was the Turkish-backed "Free Syrian Army". This is the same group that the US was also supporting with weapons. After that, he tried to advance and capture different areas of Syria.
But the Iranian Quds Force, Hezbollah and Russian jets. . .
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bombarded the group so much that this united group retreated and. . .
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was confined to the outskirts of Idlib along the Turkish border. This meant that they were temporarily defeated,. .
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. but their training camp and arms continued to be supplied from the West. This Syrian history is not a conspiracy theory.
In 2014 the US media group "Frontline PBS" made public a documentary,. . .
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which showed al-Jolani's al-Nusra Front's alliance with the US intelligence agency. . .
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and the Turkish military. In 2024, this video was again shared on YouTube. The same documentary showed fighters from the Free Syrian Army and al-Jolani's al-Nusra Front.
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. . using sophisticated anti-tank missiles.
Fighters fired an anti-tank missile and recorded its video. In it, it was shown that these wire-guided Tow Missiles were provided by America. It is about those days when in the regions of Idlib.
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. . there was no formal alliance between the forces of the Free Syrian Army and Al-Nusra Front i.
e. Al-Jolani. They were fighting each other in many places.
But the American Tow Missiles were reaching both of them. There were reports that Nusra had seized missiles from the Free Syrian Army. But by 2021 it became clear that both these parties had Western backing.
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. . and the CIA supplies them with weapons through various covert methods.
In the news, it appears that one group has grabbed some weapons from another group in an attack,. . .
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but in reality, the weapons were being delivered using the same tactics. Because efforts were being made to bring these groups together. .
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. and an asset was being created that could be used if needed. As in secret covert operations.
If the interests of those fighting for different goals come together in one place,. . .
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for some time both become each other's assets. In such an alliance, the stronger partner sees the weaker partner as an asset,. .
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. while the weaker partner does not want to miss the opportunity to make use of a stronger partner. So this is what was happening at that time,.
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. . which has now been changed into a powerful asset and in a ruling position.
He also did much to show his image better. One of his greatest efforts was that, the Syrian territories under his control. .
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. did not target the Christians and Shiite minority sects. On the contrary, for tens of millions of Syrian refugees who came from different cities.
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. . he set up thousands of camps to protect them in his territories.
That is why he is accompanied by thousands of fighters. . .
. . who have come from the same camps, where families expelled by Bashar al-Assad's forces were living.
You know that the number of internally displaced refugees in Syria,. . .
who were forced to leave Syrian cities to Idlib and other places,. . .
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is also more than 6 million. A large part of them took refuge in Idlib, in the controlled area of Tahrir al-Sham. So these were the tactics, through which Tahrir al-Sham.
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. . and the Syrian Free Army have been trying to show their soft image.
One consequence of this is that there are now reports from the British government. . .
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that they are considering changing the terrorist status of Tahrir al-Sham and Al-Jolani to stabilise Syria. The question is, have Tahrir al-Sham and al-Jolani fighters really changed? Now friends, we can't look into someone's heart and mind,.
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. . but a historical record is in front of us anyway.
That is, in the last century, we have seen that the United States trains, arms, and promotes armed groups,. . .
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which sells its moderate image. . .
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, and then these groups act against American interests in the changed circumstances. Then the United States hunts these so-called assets or moderates as the most wanted terrorists. Osama bin Laden, Abdullah Azzam, Sirajuddin Haqqani and Ayman al-Zawahiri are all examples of this.
What actually happens is that even when the US is supporting them,. . .
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these groups have their own agendas,. . .
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but temporarily these groups take support from the US and the US from them. But their long-term goals are completely different from each other. .
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. which appear after gaining strength. Therefore, often groups that are supported by the United States, after gaining power,.
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. . their leaders are killed mysteriously.
So the like threat is also hovering over al-Jolani. After what Al-Jolani has done so far, that is, disassociating himself from ISIS,. .
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. you can also understand it as the only option with him. Because if he had been connected with al-Qaeda or ISIS,.
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. . or if he kept the same ideology, he would have been killed.
Just visiting the historic Umayyad mosque in Damascus on Sunday, al-Jolani said. . .
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he would not take revenge on anyone. He said he had set a date. .
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. after which he planned to work hard to rebuild Syria. Throughout this speech, he presented himself as Saudi Crown Prince MBS instead of a Jihadi leader.
Although earlier he has said in various interviews. . .
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that whatever area will be under the control of his forces,. . .
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Sharia law will be enforced there according to his ideas, that is Salafi. He never supported democracy to date. He has been vocal against democracy.
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. . and even during his speech at the Umayyad Masjid, he did not speak in support of the democratic system.
This is important because of the storm that hit Syrian politics in 2011 in the name of the Arab Spring. . .
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was brought about by the demand for democracy. The millions of Syrian youth who took to the streets. .
. . .
. their primary demand was not the departure of Bashar al-Assad. .
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. but they sought democracy and freedom of speech in Syria. When this was not accepted.
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. . and shootings, arrests, missile attacks and killings were carried out to crush them.
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. . , then this movement became violent.
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. . and spread throughout Syria.
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. . and Syria was formed into five major regions and 14 smaller areas.
So now, if Tahrir al-Sham or the Syrian Free Army or the SDF of the Kurdish rebels,. . .
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all of them do not agree on a proper democratic formula,. . .
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and the Salafi-minded Tahrir al-Sham fighters and supporter groups. . .
. . .
fail to permit democracy,. . .
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and a system is put in place contrary to the sacrifices the Syrian youth gave for,. . .
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, chaos will once again take root in Syria. Remember, in many interviews given in Idlib, these groups have openly said. .
. . .
. that all rights will be given only according to Islamic Sharia. .
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. and women will never be allowed to work in the office. So here is a brief introduction to the movement, its supporters and the leaders.
. . .
. . who is currently leading affairs in Syria.
Also, a brief but extremely important development that will have far-reaching implications in future. It is that Israel has accelerated its advance into the South. Israeli forces have advanced beyond Golan Heights.
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. . to capture the southern hills of Syria and the routes.
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. . along the Lebanese border areas.
Israel has also inserted its forces into Syrian villages and towns along the Jordanian border. Israeli forces have ordered people to stay indoors and say. .
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. it is a temporary Israeli deployment. But you know this is the way Israel has been expanding itself for the last 60/70 years.
Right now, it is calling this occupation area a buffer zone,. . .
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but after January, when Donald Trump takes charge as US president,. . .
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, it is quite possible that Israel will put the US stamp on this buffer zone to annex it. Because Donald Trump went against international laws in the first term of his administration and. .
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. legalised the Israeli occupation of Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, at least in American policy. He also recognized East Jerusalem as Israel's permanent part and capital.
. . .
. . and also shifted the American embassy to this part.
While these two actions were illegal according to the United Nations. Another question is about Gaza. .
. . .
. that what side the Palestinian question will lean to after Iran's influence ends in Syria? What shape will the Gaza war take?
The victory of the Salafist-minded major group in Syria will have no effect on Gaza for now. Rather, for now, these Syrian revolutionary groups. .
. . .
. will not be able to do anything about their own area of Syria, the Golan Heights and the new buffer zone area. Hezbollah and Iranian proxies have already been defeated in this area,.
. . .
. . so no good news, even in terms of human rights, is coming from Gaza.
Donald Trump will go to great lengths to please Israeli PM Netanyahu. But they are short-term matters. In the long term, if any such Arab national government is established in Syria.
. . .
. . then you must know, there may be difficulties for Israel.
Because the stable government, including Golan Heights. . .
. . .
will also make efforts on the Palestinian issue. But this is long term. For now, things will go on as they are.
The Syrian civil war has seen a lot of blood. Hopefully, after this new development, the Arab and world powers will prevent aggravation of the human tragedy. We will keep giving you more updates on this.
In the meantime, to know the basic reasons for chaos in the Muslim world. . .
. . .
must watch our landmark series Muslim Cold War. The series shows Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Turkey. .
. in a tug-of-war for the control of the Islamic world. Here are its links.
