Raoul Pal’s 2025 Market Predictions ft. @BloorStreetCapital

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spot and use realvision 15 for 15% off don't miss your chance to be part of the industry's defining moment hi everyone sorry to interrupt but this is the cheesy podcast bit that gets on everyone's nerves but it's really important to me please if you can like the channel and also subscribe it helps me a lot to get the best guess in the world for you guys so click like And subscribe appreciate it thanks join me Ral pal as I go on a journey of Discovery through the macro crypto and exponential age landscapes in the journey

man I talk to the smartest people in the world so we can all become smarter together thank you very much for joining us today how are things in the Caymans uh can't complain it's a bit cold today look I've got a sweater on because it's 75 degrees this to me is like Arctic weather yeah yeah well I am in Toronto and I can assure you it's significantly colder so there's many beautiful islands in the Caribbean why did you decide on the keans um by random accident I was Shark diving in the galapagus: in the Mediterranean

and one was a tropical beach I love diving I love white sand turquoise water and I was living in Spain I was on this dive Bo in the galapagus: I about my house and little C today um I came down here day two I bought a piece of land and built a house uh which was a brave thing to do it's an island of 150 people not the easiest thing to do to build a house and you've been there for how long now 11 years ah fantastic that's a great story I've never been to the

kayans I got to check it out sometime hi R here listen I think we've got until 2030 before the economic Singularity arrives now it might not be the exact date but it's around then so we have about six years to figure out how to unfuck our future I've put together a report to help you called prepare for 2030 it's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030 so just click on the link below and start your journey now so let's move on now and I want

to talk about the economy and I want to get your opinion on the global economy and if you have any concerns when you look at the various regions in the world whether it be Asia Europe or North America America so generally speaking the economic cycle and I'll use the ism survey Institute of Supply manager survey from the US as the best guide has been subdued so even though we've had Equity markets and stuff very strong it's been the economy's been subdued so normally a growing economy you should see the ism above 50 GDP has actually

been reasonably good but there's something going on in the kind of manufacturing sector that is still sluggish so the cycle has still been relatively slow which has created this bation of like tech stocks which are not based on you know debt Dynamics or real world expenditures it's a very separate kind of um cash FL that they're earning the traditional economy has been sluggish globally Europe's slow they haven't picked up yet either the UK is a bit of a mess Canada's slow and then we go to China China and China's got a full-on debt deflation playing

out so bond yields are collapsing they can't stimulate because their currency's too weak and they don't want to lose control of their currency everybody's desperate for the US to weaken the dollar because the Dollar's way too strong for everybody so the strong dollar usually slows the global cycle now Trump's coming in the probability is he'll do the same as he did last time which was the Dollar's too strong because the US needs to export goods and a strong dollar means less exports which means a larg of trade deficit so we're kind of a little bit

in this no man's land where everything is slow all the forward-looking indicators of the economy are suggesting because the liquidity that went in and financial conditions over the last 6 months they tend to be forward leading suggest that the economy should pick up significantly this year um now China is the one problem child we have to as I said see the dollar weaken but also the Chinese need room to stimulate um so then they can try and stimulate their economy now the reason they're seeing this debt deflation is the same that we've all had similar

issues is too much debt aging population doesn't generate enough GDP growth to service the debts and what you get is this big problem and they've got it in the real estate sector much like we all had back in 2008 and 2012 in Europe they've got in the banking system much like the um everyone had in 2008 and 2012 in Europe they' got got the same set of problems because their demographics just are falling off a cliff so you expressed some concern about the US economy and when I look at the US economy and I see

the same thing in Canada but it's like you have this two you have two different economies you have people that are doing extremely well and then you have another group that are not doing well and in spite of the fact that the government is saying we the economy or the GDP is growing at 2 and a half to 3% they say they got inflation under control the and the NASDAQ trading at or near all-time highs there's still this sense that things are not really as strong as they are do you have any other concerns about

the US economy and where do you see it going this year do I along at two and a half to 3% yeah I don't have any structural issues with the US economy um I think that that bacation of the two different worlds people live in is is is real you know don't forget the average person is dealing with very high mortgage rates very high credit card debt uh interest rates um they're dealing with still low cash flows from their regular businesses you know we're not talking about tech Giants here who are changing the world we're

just talking about people who run small local businesses it's still not great and you know we have to get rates lower and stuff for that to happen and the inflation yes the rate of inflation's come down but the price is stuck you know it's still sticker shock every time you go anywhere for dinner you're like oh my God how did this happen these prices have doubled um so that's that's a real problem and what we need is the economy to grow now Trump and his team know this Scott Besson is somebody I've known for a

long time because he was an ex hedge fund guy uh and he's a friend of mine I haven't spoken to him for a while but um he understands what needs to be done and that's we need to get growth so growth to me is yes you need to get interest rates lower yes you need to get the dollar lower yes you need to stimulate the US economy you need to deregulate the economy so all of those things on a forward basis suggest that the economy will be much stronger uh whether GDP changes much below you

know Trend rate of GDP growth roughly is about 2% or just below it uh we've been trending higher recently um do we go much higher do we have a few periods of you know three and a half% growth Maybe probable you know when you have a new Administration there's tax cuts there's all of that stuff you tend to do that and and Trump is very driven by the economy more than anything else so I'm I'm optimistic do the Europeans manage to get their together or not that's a different issue um because you know they are

doing the opposite they just keep increasing regulation increasing tax making it harder for people um but they have the difference they have a Social Security net so there's it's a different structural system um and then we we do need China because China buys goods from abroad they don't just sell them to us they also buy stuff from us and if they're on their knees with their economy they're going to be buying less Goods so we need the global economic system to get fired up so we need the US to Trump to do what he's suggesting

is doing and allow the Chinese to figure out what they need to do you are so right about inflation being sticky and uh I noticed that in Toronto like I was Whole Foods the other day and their beef tenderloin something I enjoyed very much was $60 a pound okay and that's Canadian so that's probably 45 us and it wasn't that many years ago when it was 30 bucks okay and those prices are never going coming down again I was in New York City and I went out for two dinners and I was on my own

uh I was having to go to some event so I thought I'd just R my hotel go for dinner first night was a pretty crappy steak restaurant and I had two glasses of wine a steak and a salad it was 180 bucks and the following night was a nice restaurant um but again it was $300 on my own I'm like this is insane and you go to Spain for example where I spent you know I lived 10 years in Spain I had a house there for 20s something years you can go to a three star

michelan restaurant go highend on the wine list in one of the best restaurants in the world and it will cost you €250 you know so we've got some real problems here somewhat 100% so Stan dram Miller has stated that the biggest risk he seized the 2025 is this reacceleration of inflation Paul Tudor Jones had similar comments he said all roads lead to inflation and I think their concern is that lower taxes higher tariffs deregulation deportation will all be inflationary what are your thoughts on that um I am not an inflationist the business cycle when it

picks up will create some inflation again because oil prices will eventually rise and stuff like that but I'm not an inflationist there's two different things going on there's debasement of currency that inflates asset prices that's continuing inflation itself I see less so and all I see ahead is a tsunami of technology that is so deflationary we can't get our heads around it so yes we will get business cycle inflation where will inflation end up in this cycle I think it ends up below 2% and then picks up again and maybe gets to 4% and then

comes off again so I'm not wildly concerned by inflation but as we said those prices won't fall so we've still got that issue um but I if I look further ahead I I think this is maybe the most deflationary period anybody's ever lived through because of Robotics and AI it's it's you know we we're creating infinite people or people in inverted commas um at zero cost I mean Amazon now employs more robots than people so they're the largest employer in the United States I think outside of the postal service or maybe the largest employer but

they have more robots now and the robots work 24/7 7 days a week never complain never take a tea break that is a great start and uh they never go on strike either exactly they never complain don't have any HR issues nothing and so look if you step back it means that everybody is e economically incentivized to use technology as opposed to people that's a fact go to a Tesla Factory it's all robots go to any modern Factory so even if the Reon Shore of of manufacturing the US a big Trump thing they're not going

to employ people it's not the 1950s anymore this is this is a very very different world where nobody employs people if they can if they can avoid it because technology is so much cheaper and more effective we are living through fascinating times yeah so I want to get your thoughts on the tenure okay and it's been very strong the yields gone from 360 in September it's up to 460 470 now and this is in the face of three cuts by the FED what is this telling us are you concerned at at all about the 10year

yield climbing I am because it's tightening Financial conditions it is also decoupled from inflation expectations so it's not about inflation so what is going on is every four years all of the major governments around the world have to roll the debt now it's this fouryear cycle something I call the everything code cycle cuz in 2008 there was a debt Jubilee of where they reset interest rates to zero all of the governments therefore didn't have to pay interest for a while so it was a break on interest so it was like a debt Jubilee it's like

don't worry about it guys don't pay your interest sort out your debts they all restructured their debts into the 3 to 5e sector and so four years being in the middle of it and it's created this perfect cycle that's been happening since 2008 um what has happened this time around because we had the pandemic inflation it's been very late for them to cut rates normally in this point in the cycle they would have cut rates back down to Trend rate of GDP growth let's say 2% but they couldn't so what's happening is the debt is

now compounding into new debt because they're issuing new debt to pay old debts and so what you've got is a tsunami of debt that's happening which is why they need to get interest rates down so it's that Dynamic that's causing it is the issuance some something will give at some point either the governments are going to have to stop it because everyone's got the same problem and the UK interest rates just hit a what it was like a 30 40y year high you know it's unsustainable in highly indebted economies so they're all going to have

to do something now whether it's a yield curve control idea which is they kind of as opposed to forgiving all the debt payments they say we're going to cap interest rate on government debt at x% um or you have to do QE but certainly what they're desperate for is to add liquidity into the system there's a tightness of liquidity that stops people buying the bonds which is why the excess issuance isn't being bought the other issue is the Dollar's too strong so it's expensive for the Japanese and the Chinese and the Europeans to buy US

government bonds so again it's another reason they've got to get the dollar lower got to get the rates lower um and then I think it'll free up the 10-year um Trump has already said interest rates are too high um and I think Scott besson's first job is to figure out this particular mess and so where do you see interest rates going or where do you see the 10e going like does it go to 5% and if it does what does that do to the equity markets look I think again if we talk about the equity

Market that bif foration I think it makes no difference to Google Apple meta open AI none of these guys because those guys compound growth at 30% a year so a 5% hurdle rate don't forget they all sit on cash so they actually make more money as interest rates go up which people don't realize so I'm not worried about that if inflation came back then you have to Discount those the cash flows but with rates up it's not an issue it is for the regular economy which creates this bation and I think that look there is

a risk that it goes to 5% and 5 a half% um so I think there is going to be some pressure from Trump to organize this as fast as possible the other side of the equation that makes some complexity to it is Trump wants to renegotiate trade terms with everybody whether it's Canada whether it's um China whether it's Europe and the best way to beat everybody into submission is a strong dollar and so because they all have dollar debts as well so what he's going to do is use the strong dollar as the stick and

then offer the carrot and the carrot will be we will lower the dollar if you agree um tariffs or changes in the trade deficits so let's just talk about the dollar because uh I can't get over the strength of this dollar it's crazy especially against the Canadian currency the uh Canadian dollar is at a 22-year low it was down 10% alone in 2024 but how will they get the US dollar lower well really if the US just says it wants a lower dollar it actually tends to work the other way is giving access to swap

lines to China Japan and others who have large dollar borrowings so that's an injection of liquidity directly into those countries and then they can recycle that into buying treasuries that's usually how it work works so there's some way of the US via the Federal Reserve lending money into the global system to alleviate the dollar shortage that those people have they recycle that because they they have the dollars they buy treasuries and everybody's a winner so that is the mechanism so then you ask well why is why are they not doing that why is the dollar

so strong it's because they want it strong and the the reason they want it strong is to quickly get an agreement on trade deals so when I look at all of the elements that we just discussed okay I have to admit I'm somewhat perplexed by it all because the way I look at it is Trump is coming into Power he's going to do anything and everything he can to keep this economy growing at two and a half to 3% to keep the S&P and the NASDAQ at or near all-time highs to keep the housing market

going and but at the same time he also wants to implement lower taxes higher tariffs deregulation all of which could be argued to be inflationary you don't think it is but let's just assume they are if it's inflationary that to me that means we're going to see higher interest rates we're going to see a higher US dollar but at the same time Trump wants a lower US dollar to bring manufacturing back home and and keep that economy going stronger how do you reconcile all of that well when you listen to Scott Besson you listen to

a few of the others one of the other things you know why are they talking what what is this nonsense with Canada what's that all about it's all about oil Trump knows as the Scott bessent is been need lower oil price even though it's not particularly expensive right now but a low oil price gets the economic machine working and they want the Canadians to pump as much oil as possible the Keystone Pipeline that all of those things so I look there's lots of moving Parts some are inflation some take time and others a simple fix

a simple fix is you can add liquidity via um either the Federal Reserve or via the treasury and you can stimulate assets so they've got that under their control so then somehow you need the economy to grow enough via deregulation but you don't want it inflationary so you're trying to keep cap on commodity prices there's a lot of moving Parts here so look it's not an easy thing and we will definitely as the as the economic cycle picks up we will definitely see um inflation come back but the question we ask ourselves is is it

coming back in a non-cyclical structural fashion where you see that chart that goes around Twitter all day about the 1970s all over again is it that or is it just the normal business cycle where inflation picks up and then it goes down again so I want to get your views on the so it's kind of it's quite a fine line to draw right I think you're correct it's like this is not straightforward you know we have problematic economies um and it's not easy yeah and and I guess just a lot of uncertainty about what policies

are going to be implemented in the coming months with the new Administration and what you know last time around the tariffs weren't inflationary so that's interesting too so it's not necessarily guaranteed because the exchange rate can offset them and stuff so it's really not clear um but Trump came in with similar policies last time the dollar from second week of January fell like a stone Bond yals had backed up for the same reasons this is all inflationary bond yields fell for the next 18 months so I think often the market can get wrong-footed by getting

ahead of itself um I think to the point you're making now as as well is like how long before actual large tariffs get put in place well that's going to take a while 18 months two years so in which case the the incremental tariff increases will be small so there's a lot of we all think it happens on day one it won't I want to get your views on the S&P and the ndaq now we've had two incredible years uh 23 and 24 S&P and NASDAQ up 25 to 30% both years I read in one

of your letters you had an incredible 2024 up 150% one of your best years ever I'm going to have to give you some of my money but what are your thoughts do you think we can have a third incredible year in the S&P so I'll use the NASDAQ as the best example 97 and a half% of the entire trend of the NASDAQ is driven by liquidity so it's a 97 half% correlation so really what is driving Equity markets is the action of the Federal Reserve plus the treasury that's the treasury general account that is the

reverse repo um that is the balance sheet and then in addition it's what the global governments are doing so Global liquidity is the Big Driver of everything so if we know that there is I don't know 8 trillion or 10 trillion of debt to roll this year year the bond Market's already struggling they need liquidity well the probabilistic outcome is we're going to get a lot of liquidity Trump also likes High asset prices so the chances of this being another strong year for equities is high it will be probably volatile probably more volatile than last

year was um but I think I don't see a world in which it won't if the government rolls its debt which it has to do and it's the same for the Europeans it's the same same for the Chinese it's the same for the everyone's got the same thing to do and to do that they inject liquidity so it goes back to the point I made earlier he's going to do anything and everything he can to keep the economy going keep the markets going yeah number one roll the debt that's the single most important thing because

if you blow up your entire bomb markets that's the end of the game so rule number one roll your debt in doing that you have to add liquidity and that's going to drive asset prices so it's going to make him look good and uh what about valuations when you look at some Dames I'm I'm going to throw it Nvidia right that's the poster child for this Market I think it was up 170% in 24 are you concerned about valuations with Nvidia or any other names so generally speaking PE ratios have been rising over time and

why is that it's because the price is driven by debasement of currency and earnings don't go up as much they're driven by GDP so if you're debating the currency by 8% a year and GDP growth is 2% a year earnings from a corporate level grow at 2% a year or whatever the overall number is 5% whatever it is uh nominal GDP so let's call that 5% while debasement is growing 8% a year so the p ratio keeps going up so we can't use that but you know are people overe extrapolating the impact of impact on

revenues of AI and stuff like this probably but you know don't forget go back 10 years 10 years 12 years yeah between 10 and 12 years ago yeah 10 years ago Amazon was trading at a p of 600 still was a pretty good investment so it depends on the rate of growth however my general construct is this year will be a good year we will go to much higher valuations and then after we've rolled the debt we tend to tighten liquidity cu the inflation pressures have come back somewhat that tends to draw down the markets

we kind of reset again before we start this cycle all over again I actually my working hypothesis is this is going to be you know valuations will get expensive this cycle the correction may not be large maybe just be a year of sideways you know down 15% something but the next cycle because that's when AI robotics self-driving cars missions to the Mars all of this starts hitting we will go to a full bubble cycle and then we can think about what the world looks like after that so I I kind of think we're in a

golden bull market at least until the end of the decade and so when we if I speak to you in a year from now do you have a target for the S&P um it probably does another 20% from here that's good news yeah so I can't have a discussion with you uh without discussing Bitcoin I know you're very bullish in the long term but I saw an interview you did recently and you think it's going to have a good year but it's there's going to be a lot of volatility maybe you can just take us

through your thesis so Bitcoin is also driven by global liquidity but it's also the adoption of this new technology which puts it in this stupid exponential secular Trend but with volatility the volatility the big volatile draw Downs are just driven by liquidity so this year we've already established is a liquidity positive year in fact a very big liquidity positive year because you need to roll all of this debt so generally speaking it should be a very good year for cryptocurrencies however we're in this period where the Federal Reserve and the treasury and because of the

dollar have tightened liquidity over the last couple of months it's forward-looking so it's affecting cryptocurrencies right now so they've been soggy for a while because liquidity was tightened a while ago but again our expectation is a it should be it shouldn't last that long in in in in price all time um and then we've got liquidity all the way through the cycle now if we go back to 2021 the prior post elction cycle because the pandemic had seen the global economy go down to zero then go straight back up again the business cycle peaked really

early in April 2021 normally in these presidential election cycle years the business cycle Peaks towards the end of the year so Bitcoin had a very complicated 20201 but what we now looks very similar to the 2017 post elction for Trump and what we saw then was ongoing injections of liquidity we started the year with a sharp 30% correction or 25% correction sort of the sort of thing we're getting now um and then liquidity just came all year and it didn't it wasn't actually massively put in by the US it was actually China last time um

and I think we might see that again this time where China is going to going to play an important role in global liquidity so I think it's going to be a much stronger year than people expect people have a lot of PTSD from 20121 where it peaked early then collapsed then went back up again then collapsed um I think it's going to look more like we saw in 2013 2017 so yes I remain very bullish for this year on all risk assets so if uh if I use similar numbers let's just use round numbers it's

at 100,000 you see it pulling back 25% to 75 and then take off probably not even I don't think it goes down 25% because there's ETFs and there's you know the market is more mature so let's say it go you know let's say 990,000 so it goes from 10 where did it get to 110 down to 990,000 okay that seems about right um so not far from where we are now um and then it finishes the year in a worst case scenario I think it's like 200 250 in a base case scenario it's kind of

350 and in a blowoff Top Cycle like 2017 back end of the year could go north of 500,000 we just it's you know it's difficult to know so I always kind of give a probabilistic tree of you know these are the kinds of zones do you have any views on gold look gold is driven by the same thing which is De basement of currency it's just doesn't have a tech adoption curve so it doesn't go up as much so gold will considering again we're in the liquidity cycle where you have to debase currency to pay

your debts gold should continue to do well um so um yeah I'm bullish gold um and I think that'll continue to do well for the rest of this um Market particularly you know when the dollar starts falling as well that's good for gold so overall I think it's a very good market for gold very good market for most risk assets so you often say in a lot of your online interviews that we have five years to make a lot of money and I think you touched on this a little bit earlier when you were talking

about Ai and Robotics Etc but maybe you can provide some more context what exactly do you mean by that so my job as a macro investor an analyst is to look ahead in the future and try and figure out where the world is going I have been using a framework since 200 since 2000 of debt deflation and demographics and that framework has been in play ever since it got me the right side of the financial crisis got the right side the European crisis it got you know you kind of could see the world through that

lens and it worked very well um I missed the rise of Technology earlier on when I look forwards the whole world that we understand it is driven by scarcity and generally as we've transitioned from manufacturing economies to service economies scarcity of knowledge is the thing that's why lawyers get paid so much money and accountants and financial advisors and doctors and surgeons and all of this stuff radiologist is because they there's a short number of people large demand for the services AI has just made that knowledge a zero people don't get it yet but it's all

a zero being a content creator creating a media company a zero making films a cost of making film will go from 100 million bucks to 5 million bucks or 2 million bucks so that's the cost element on the manufacturing side we're bringing the robots in so what is the expensive thing of a manufacturing is the people where you going to get rid of them okay so we're kind of laying off a lot of jobs everyone understands that about AI over time but it's offset by an aging population so there's less people in the labor force

anyway so that is not the bit that concerns me the bit that concerns me is what does it mean for your business or my business when we're replaced by AI what does it mean for financial markets when we have um artificial super intelligence ASI well as investors we're replaced because somebody can do it better than us somebody can do everything better than all of us so you start thinking well I'm not sure how financial markets even work do they just well I don't know because it's not going to be run by human emotion it's going

to be run by Machine emotion or machine logic then we start thinking well the other thing about AI is right now we've been living this software as eating the World Revolution that Mark Dron talked about many years ago and the rise of SAS software well now it's pretty close already I can if let's say you've built a beautiful new platform for whatever Financial advice I can say hey I want to copy Jimmy's platform but I want it for the Indian market doing for their regulation and it will build it in less than a minute so

what Moes to we have around our business and what Moes do we have around the fact that you and I got paid for knowledge and that scales everywhere so humans will find new ways of making a living and I think they online communities is one way because humans are social creatures by Nature so they want to be around other humans they want to be talking to each other but the world is going to fundamentally change in ways that we can't understand we've never not been the top of the the intellectual tree but if you look

at AI it went last year from an IQ of 90 to a IQ of 157 so we pretty much doubled if we double in IQ we get to 300 next year which is more than any human ever recorded and then the year after that 600 then the year after that I mean this is La La Land right so I kind of thought about this and thought with the exponential change that's coming in all of this technology even longevity increases for Humanity as genetic Sciences use this and nanotechnology is that we don't understand what the world

is and so when I come into a process of massive change it's going to create societal disruption it's going to create enormous opportunity but in ways we don't yet know the answer for me is if they still have to continue to roll the debt and debase the currency and drive asset prices up let's use this opportunity to make as much money as possible that when we go into the early 2030s and the world is starting to move in ways we don't understand where the study of Economics doesn't even really work anymore that will be secure

because it's much easier to do it from a place of security because we don't even know what businesses how our businesses will work in that environment so that level of unknowingness Unknowing is is too much for most people to deal with stress but we've been given the greatest macro risk-taking opportunity of all time which has been particularly within technology and crypto because these are Tech adoption curvs that are playing into the trend of us being replaced by the AI so we're investing in our own demise we can make an extraordinary amount of money out of

it yes there'll be Cycles and'll they'll come with risks and all of that stuff but it will set us up in a place that we can deal with change and what advice would you give young students that are in University right now I do this all the time because all of my friends kids are at University or just a bit younger I had a friend from here in Little Cayman brought his son round to me he's at University um all the same questions firstly if you are to go into an industry go in into an

industry with Tailwinds and not headwinds I went into the banking industry servicing hedge funds so we had the largest financial bubble of all time which was the '90s which was my career hedge funds were the dominant power within that so I rode two secular Trends if you go into finance and Consulting now it's a headwind because everybody's going to be replaced so go into an industry if you want to go into an industry that has a secular Tailwind so that would be AI robotics that would be um cryptocurrency so that's what I say to friends

of mine I also say to the kids if I were you because you're going to come out with quite a lot of uncertainty go traveling experience people the greatest skill in a world of machines is to be a human go and backpack Rand India go and do something like that because you will be much more valuable as a human because the human to human thing is going to be valuable so I I do think there's an element of that is the more human you are the more likely you'll you'll be to find a role as

things change because businesses are going to change if you do want to go into business and you're very ambitious go into businesses that are growing at 100% a year you know that that indust those Industries don't go into industries that aren't now you could end up deciding well you want to be a restauranteur that's fine because that's Human Experience travel you know travel and tourism human experiences so either lean into human experiences or lean into technology ignore everything avoid like the plague everything in the middle because that's all gone I want to summarize a few

of the points we've discussed here and overall you're very bullish on the US economy the US markets Bitcoin but if there was one risk that a lot of people might not be looking at it's you know how sometimes when when we get these massive pullbacks 25 30% or more it's something you didn't see coming and if there was one risk like that what would it be I think the unraveling of the political system in Europe could be one you know we're seeing all of these political systems rejecting the previous politicians you're about to do it

in Canada we've done it everywhere but does that Force the change to the EU itself and then what would that mean for global trade what would that mean for you know that's a big deal that people don't think about because they just think of and I talked about it earlier as Europe is this kind of Regulation driven beer mooth but what happens if that changes what would that do to the system okay that's something that I don't think people think about because people always say well China's going to invade Taiwan or or the Chinese economy

is going to blow up these are known knowns right so those are not the things that I worry about now the answer to each and every one of these problems is to print more money if China blows up print more money China invades Taiwan print more money if um if there's another pandemic print more money if there's if Europe blows up and the world goes to ship print more money so what you get is a world where the central banks and governments in Combined have reduced what's known as the left tail risk the risk of

really bad outcomes if you think about it we had the most shocking outcome of our entire lives was the entire world closing down for a 2 to 3 month period what did it do to the market it went down for a month and then did nothing but go up in a straight line why because we injected massive liquidity and debase the currency so it's proven we did it in 2008 we did it in 2012 in Europe with draggy everything it takes every time we inject incredible amounts of liquidity Silicon Valley Bank inject liquidity so we've

got into a very different world it's a world where you forced to own risk assets but they've taken the risk of the downside away yes you'll have draw Downs in those liquidity negative years yes you know the NASDAQ can correct 30% yes the the the longer duration stuff can go down further but it won't last long because they'll just inject liquidity interesting points well as we wrap up I follow a lot of your content on both real vision and also the journaling I enjoyed your recent discussion with people I still can't believe he sold that

nft for 69 million bucks but I especially enjoy your sessions on the journ when you sit back and you open up a bottle of wine and you have a Q&A with your subscribers very well done but if somebody would like to learn more about you and your various Services where can they go the best thing is obviously you can go to realvision to join all of the information's there some of the greatest analysts thinkers in the industry but as a first step just go and subscribe to the journey man it's the free YouTube channel it's

my interviews with some really cool people plus my presentations on the world of macro crypto and the exponential age of technology and we have a fun with a few GL with a few glasses of wine every month where I ask everybody's questions and that will then point you in the direction of the various things that I do the best suit you so go and subscribe to the journey man and enjoy that Journey because it's it's legitimately my journey into the understanding of what the hell is going on and you know I've been doing this for

35 years this is the most exciting time I've ever lived through um and so my job is to go and speak to the most interesting people in the world learn more and then occasionally present it back as kind of a synopsis of here's where my thinking is and I hope people find that useful yeah I would encourage our viewers to check it out it's you do a great job there but maybe the next time we do one of these interviews I can come to the camans and we can do an in-person interview and enjoy a

nice bot of wine at the same time what do you think exactly we can do it at the ball behind me well once again thank you it's been a pleasure thank you really enjoyed it consensus Hong Kong 20125 is where the global crypto Community converges to shape the next era of web 3 from February 18th through the 20th Hong Kong becomes the meeting point for leaders across Finance technology and digital assets this isn't just a conference it's where deals are made Partnerships are forged and New Opportunities emerge consensus features exclusive networking lounges expert Le sessions

and invaluable insights from Top industry voices whether you're expanding your network building your brand or closing your next big deal this is the event that moves markets visit coind des.com consensus dhk to secure your spot and use real Vision 15 for 15% off don't miss your chance to be part of the industry's defining moment hey thanks for sticking around to the end uh look if you enjoyed it hit the Subscribe button and check out the video here on the right hand side I'm sure you'll enjoy that one as well and if you're ready for more

go to real.com jooin I'll see you there