Tom Lee: "URGENT WARNING - Do This ASAP"

folks we have a major warning from Tom Lee about 2025 this is not clickbait I want you to pay attention carefully to what I got to say in this video because this is critical now as you know in all of my videos the drill is the same I don't hold anybody hostage the bottom line is first ahead of the analysis ahead of everything so don't click nothing don't smash nothing don't buy nothing just listen so if you just need the bottom line of the Tomley warning here it is Tomley says that even though we're going to have a good first half of the year in 2025 climbing all the way to 7,000 on the S&P 500 the second half of the year is not going to be so peachy and we will drop all the way to 6600 so this second half the year according to Tom Lee is going to be subpar and it's going to be correction l so if all you needed is just the B line here it is but if you got a few minutes I suggest you stay because I'm going to make some very interesting counterarguments to what Tomley said I'm going to be making a lot of arguments supporting what he said I'm going to show you the entire breadth of all the options all the strategies and how you can make money no matter what happens whether Tomley is right or wrong there are a lot of money making opportunities here but first we're going to play the clip of tomlee going over his prediction in CNBC interview and then right after that I'm going to share my analysis my strategy can't wait I'll see you right after that clip I I think investors should realize 2024 has been a year of uh surprising strength the market has avoided so many opportunities for weakness and now we're entering the final weeks of the Year where we know there's still 7 trillion of cash on the sidelines and quite good visibility next year so I I think stock should finish very strong why do you think money is going to the mega caps now in the manner that it is up 1 and 3/4 % today the NASDAQ up almost 4% over a month and able to achieve this Milestone one reason is Mega caps have been leading um so it's sort of what people reach into the Shelf when they risk on but second we know that when interest rates fall uh the mega caps actually are very sensitive to that and I think today was a day where the odds of a December cut increased you know the probabilities are are now solidified and that's actually bullish for Tech because the CPI was you know some would say ick but it was largely in line is that how you read it the yeah that's right and I think it's allowing the CPI print today allows people to imagine a path to 2% because shelter now is cooling to a level that's in line auto insurance which was at 25% earlier this year year-over year is now down to 13 so the two biggest contributors CPI are in a downshift I don't think the fact that used cars are going up is going to reverse the fed's view I don't think the fed's going to tighten because used car prices are up all right so fed's cutting next week that's your base case yes and then what happens after that all bets are off wait and see what do you think uh I think the fed put remains in Play Because neutral is let's say 2 and a half to 3% we're at 4 five after the December cut so we know the fed's in a cutting cycle I actually think the best case is for the FED to do the fewest number of cuts next year that means the economy is pretty strong that's right it's strong they don't they're not harming the economy by keeping rates here and the labor market is is holding up and now we have a lot of Firepower for future cuts which support stocks okay you talk about a fed put you also talk about another put and that's a trump put yes he's going to be here tomorrow by the way ringing the opening bell people are excited about that uh down here for sure um but you say that that is a substantial part of your outlook for the new year the Trump put explain uh the Trump put is on the simplest level it is the a white house that is going to measure its success by how the stock market performs forms but it's also a president that's coming in into a second term but with a lot of previous experience so this is a cabinet that has good private sector acceptance and I think very markets friendly overall I I think investors who might have been cautious for the last few years now want to be risk on next year all right so your outlook to me is interesting the way you sort of game out where the S&P can go because you say we're going to 7,000 by midyear which sounds amazing cuz most targets that I've seen are 7,000 at the top end for the entire year your full year forecast though is 6600 why uh part of it cyclical we're coming off to backto back 20% years and there are five precedents to look at five of the five precedents since 1880 had a weaker second half so I'd say that's the base case the reason I think markets do better in the first half is that there is going to be a lot of enthusiasm about a new White House some of the headlines that come whether it's uh deregulation Etc and we know there's still a ton of cash and a lot of low leverage on the sidelines that's why stocks can rally and by the way 11% in in a few months we've seen that routinely the last couple of years but in the second half I think markets start to worry about the larger macro risks like the Middle East the potential risks of tariff and executing that and potentially the fact that Doge could be so successful that it could slow the economy so Tomley basically says look folks 2024 was a great year it's not over yet but so far it has been great to investors and we're heading into 2025 with a lot of great opportunities with a great setup for the market we have a lot of sideline money we have a lot of certainty a lot of clarity about policies about the government about the stuff that are coming down the pipeline so the combination of of the certainty we now have and all the sideline money and the great market right now sets up 2025 to be a great Runway all the way up he also says that the odds of the FED cutting in December have now pretty much become 100% which is good for tech companies in the short term and he also says that he thinks the FED is heading all the way down eventually to 2% interest not 3% like the market is pricing in which is going to create another op site now the thing he says in this clip which is a little bit different from anything he said so far it's the first time anybody has heard Tom Lee being bearish somewhat about anything over the past two and a half years he actually says look we're going to have a great 2025 in the beginning of the year right we're going to have the FED cut cycle we're going to have the Euphoria in the market from the new Administration all this hope all this excitement and we're going to have a lot of trump market frame policies being implemented deregulation and the FED cutting cycle and all this stuff and we're going to have a great first half of the year and we're going to end up the first half with 7,000 on the S&P 500 however the party stops there according to Tom Lee Tom Lee says that at 7,000 we're going to hit correction territory and the second half of 2025 is not going to be as peachy and we're going to drop from 7,000 to 6600 now just to put this in perspective it still means that Tomy is saying that 2025 is going to be a 9% year if we measure from this point so pretty much an average year for the S&P 500 now seems all of a sudden like a bad thing after we've seen a couple of years of super duper performance on the market all of a sudden at 9% we all of a sudden disappointed but still this is a normal year for the S&P 500 even according to Tom Le prediction now he says basically for the ones who are trying to time the top here that is going to come in the middle of 2025 but even if you stay in the market and you decide not to try and time the top which I think is the right way to build good habits as long-term investors you're still looking at 9% even according to the Tomley prediction now when he was asked about his rationale but why he thinks this is going to happen he basically cites a few reasons that are not ridiculous I'm going to be honest with you number one he says look we just had two years with 20% and above all the Year back to back so it doesn't happen a lot when we have two 20 plus years back to back it happens six times in history in this clip he actually says five but if you go to his website to FS inside it actually is six but six out of six times that this happened not five six out of six times it happened the second half of the third year was not good the first half good the second half 100% of the time was not good that's because the excitement dies down the sideline money that goes into the market in the first half basically runs out and statistically speaking half two of the third year of a bullish cycle is usually the slowest of the all now he also talks in his website about what kind of Trades he's looking at for the next few months before this is going to kind of go into correction territory and he basically repeats the same thing he's been saying for the past 6 months which is small caps iwm and Bitcoin now interestingly in his own website in FSN site he actually sites 250,000 $250,000 for Bitcoin as a potential ceiling in 2025 I guess this is his Uber bull kind of case 250,000 seems like insane but look if I told you Bitcoin is going to be at $1,000 a couple years ago you would have thought that's insane so who knows now in my opinion here I'm going to kind of lay down the counterarguments to what he said the arguments that support what he said I'm going to tell you how I see 2025 develop and I'm going to give you at the end a strategy to make money no matter what happens no matter if he's right or wrong it's very good right so check this out so number one and I do think that Tom Lee is right about the bullishness of 202 5 and the reason is because the FED is in the middle right maybe in the beginning even of a cutting cycle we're still at 4 and 1 12% we're heading to 3% 2 and a half% maybe even 2% according to Tom Le so we're in the early stages well not really in the early stages in the early middle stages of a cutting cycle by the FED but basically no matter how you define the middle or the beginning the Federal Reserve is right now in a monetary friendly policy and it's going to continue to be in the same monetary friendly policy for the next few months at the very least that means more money in the market that means more sale for retail that means more jobs more profits higher pees and the snowball continues the economy does better the market does better so the friendly monetary policy is good for the market it's good for the stock market now the other thing I want to point out here and this is very interesting I know we've seen two great years but people forget that this bull cycle actually started back in November of 2022 with the release of the chat GPT miracle that we have never seen before so chat GPT comes up in November of 2022 the cycle begins but if you look all the way from November of 2022 until now the market only done 61% now I'm saying only not because it's not a great number I think 61% in a couple of years it is insane but here's the thing here's the thing since 19 1929 we had had 27 bull markets now the average return on a bull market in America is 114% we're not even close to being exhausted here we're at 61% the average is 114% so we're somewhere in the middle according to statistics now the average length of a bull market in America based on the same statistics is about 1,020 days so a little bit over 1,000 days if you count how many days we have passed since the release of chat GPD it's about 700 days so statistically speaking we have another 300 days Plus for this bull run to hit what is the average length of a bull run the other thing is that inflation is actually falling although Tom Lee has said about this multiple times not in this specific interview people don't seem to fully grasp the idea that we are going to get to close to that 2% territory but we don't need to get to 2 00 if the United States continues in this 2. 5 2. 7 2.

3 dancing around that 2% that is good enough the 2% is kind of something that you strive for but you don't necessarily have to hit 2. 0% so inflation is falling we don't have any unemployment the GDP numbers are great the market is good we have good earnings and good expected earnings from the companies so if you look at this setup and you specifically have a prog growth Administration going into the office right now we're talking about a very strong setup for 2025 now if you want some arguments that support the Tom Le theory that the second half of 2025 might be weaker I can show you some as well because I'm not in an echo chamber right so we can talk about the fact that the fact that history has all of these great numbers in front of us but even though history repeats it don't mean jack you can put on the T-shirt but basically historical performances don't guarantee nothing in the future so this thing historically is correct until it isn't so there's no point in saying oh history shows that this is the statistical number who cares until it isn't right there's always an outlier number two people just assume that Trump is going to be so friendly to grow stocks and the economy and is going to do all that but Trump is inherently unpredictable nobody knows what Trump is going to do in any given day and that unpredictability might birth a lot of chaos for the market that the market might not like that's also the matter that we have very high pric earnings right now on the S&P 500 and some companies are absolutely out of control and we have geopolitical Insanity instability is still going on still unresolved and the fact is that much like in 1999 when we have a bunch of pets.