[Music] [Music] [Applause] [Music] warning this video and all other videos on this channel for entertainment purposes only the content of this video and all other videos on this channel the opinions that the creat only and do not constitute legal trading investment or financial advice of any kind investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money do not invest in capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all all right hello and welcome to camel Finance I'm your boy camel and I'm not going to be
posting a video tomorrow so I thought I would make a brief one today and then relax for a couple of days take a few days off and really nothing has changed right we're still aiming at early Jan time frame to see some cycle load across the board I have a sneaky suspicion the metals might be firing one slightly sooner but either way we'll do what we always do on this channel which is find and trade the cycle lows before we get into today's episode I think I know who it was but I'm not 100% sure
but whoever it was that sent my dog a Christmas present a nice little toy thank you very much I really really really appreciate that and he really liked it as well so today I want to talk about this right I want to show you that 2025 could well be quite a wild year I'm going to point out a few Bitcoin things because I'm pretty sure we are as close as we've ever been to find finding a cycle low for Bitcoin and of course that is for me at least a tradable low then I want to
talk about Bitcoin dominance and gold so Apollo just published their biggest Market risks for 2025 and between potential rate hikes a recession in China a 40% chance of the 10-year note yield at 5% 2025 is probably going to be quite volatile so they see tariffs coming with a 90% chance the GDP impact of tariffs is estimated to be negative 1.7% but tax cuts are possibly going to be able to offset that and Nvidia is expected to miss earnings with a 90% chance and Nvidia has contributed 20% of the S&P 500's returns over the last year
so if we start to get misses major tops com in for NVIDIA then again we could be in for a little bit of volatility into 2025 and also envidia has a third angle violation so if it can hold the second angle and maybe continue to print higher highs then no reason to be super alarmed however if what we get here is what normally happens after a third angle violation which is a grind and another breakdown especially incid with perhaps earnings misses then the S&P again May well be in for a bit of tough times ahead
they also give a 85% probability that the US economy re accelerates GDP growth in the US has remained around 3% and will likely accelerate in 2025 and this will come as inflation rebounds and monetary conditions have eased they say inflation will remain a major issue in 2025 and it's already becoming apparent as I'm sure you're well aware I disagree with this but once more time will tell they say there is a 40% chance that US inflation accelerates in q1 or 2025 see 40% so even according to them deflation is higher risk right or at least
stagnating inflation I think this is all going to become very very apparent very early in next year but they think this is the biggest risk in 2025 we get another spout of inflation they also see a 40% chance the FED hikes interest rates if you ask me it is essentially zero everything is a non-zero possibility in markets but I I really think it's is close to zero as we could get that they're going to continue to hike rates because they're already behind the curve however if I am wrong about this then maybe just maybe we
could see something absolutely wild where they start hiking rates again either way we're going to see volatility I can assure you of that and of course the 10-year note yield rises above 5% before mid year they give this a 40% chance I mean it's almost there already right it wouldn't take much to see that and the weird thing about the 10-year note is since the FED pivot began the the 10e note is actually up 100 basis points so under the hood some weird stuff is going on and they also see China enter in a recession
with a 40% chance they also state that there is a 0% chance that United State enters a recession so I mean one of us is very very very wrong here right and lastly they are watching the housing market in 2025 because despite the Fed rate cuts the average 30-year mortgage rate is back above 7% and nearing a new 52- we High mortgage demand will likely hit new 40-year lows so as you can see there's a lot of weirdness going on let's call it weirdness there's a lot of conflicto or contradictory things being said of course
as always no one really knows okay but the good news is we can take a couple of weeks off come back early Jan buy some cycle lows and then continue to ride the waves of insanity during these wild times speaking of wild times micro strategy somehow managed to buy the absolute top 106k in size of 5,260 odd Bitcoin and Bitcoin as I've been talking about for a long time is getting closer and closer to that cycle low you can see we have followed this thing pretty well okay here's a more updated version you can see
that we are inside the timing window now to find a daily cycle low so anytime early Jan and I think we should be able to get a tradeable swing I think you'll see me get a long on out of there and you'll be seeing me Target North of 150k for the top to give you a couple of ideas of how this low could form outside of the cycle idea that we also have this ABCD E from Kushi where we're looking for a slight undercut early Jan and then a big reversal shake out and one final
leg to the upside nesty here shows that just like we had this ABCDE e here with a higher low maybe that's what we're going to get from over here in either case it doesn't make much difference to me from a cycle perspective because if we do get a higher low then it's the same trade idea with a stop below that swing it's just that it would be much easier for me to identify if what we get here is one final undercut to a lower low that's just makes everyone's life a little bit easier but we've
played plenty of higher low Cycles before and so as you can see we are chilling out right we're waiting patiently for a nice tradable swing to form on bitcoin and then we'll get behind that we'll get behind some crypto stocks in the members section as well before we get into the charts which are also showing early cycle lows in other asset classes for early Jan I wanted to point at this okay because I woke up this morning I scrolled Twitter as I always do and I noticed every man in his dog has got the same
fr raal now that does not mean this is not correct okay we certainly maybe have just completed let's say one into two looking for three four and five okay and during this time of course we'd expect a nice big alt season but one thing I wanted to just point at and out of objectivity make a note of is I don't see anybody calling for this and I also don't see anybody calling for this all I see is 100% of Market participants saying this is the only path and the funny thing about this is those same
Market participants were called for this from here from here from here from here from here the whole way up and now all of a sudden they've just started to pretend like they never were calling for it to break down until now okay so I just wanted to kind of point at this and say if it plays out okay as you know I don't have a dog in the fight I don't mind either way but usually when you see 100% of Market participants calling for the same thing okay then it means something else is going to
happen and I don't know which one of these three things is going to happen but I just wanted to point at that and ask you the question right do you see anyone calling for anything other than this because this seems 100% certain in markets and whenever everyone is 100% certain then someone ain't thinking right and then before we hop into some charts and say goodbye for the Christmas period here is a really really nice example of gold on the monthly time frame targeting 20K this is what I think is on the table and I know
a lot of people really don't care about gold I know a lot of people think this is some kind of Boomer rock or that bitcoin's going to demonetize it and all of this stuff that's fine okay I'm not trying to sell you anything I'm not trying to tell you to buy it but I believe this is very much in play I've been consistent L saying this is very much in play for the entire time I've had my channel and I've been very consistent in saying I'll be really surprised if we're not trading five figures by
the end of this decade which is now of course only about 5 years away I very much expect this to play out I suspect over the next couple of years that I have this channel you will see me start to trade the precious metals mining stocks more and more I think I'm slowly but surely going to be evolving out of a stock market Trader and into a commodity Trader there have been times in my career when I've traded all sorts of different instruments primarily of late we've been mostly trading stocks and crypto since that's where
the easy money has been but I do believe that over the coming couple of years you are going to see me pivot to becoming much more of a commodity Trader because I really do believe the stock market is not going to be able to outperform these types of moves so for now hard to argue that this chart is not beautiful if you're a chart nerd like I am also fits my base case so Hing into the charts it's the exact same setup that we're looking for in the stock market as to bitcoin so far if
we draw our eyes to this upper slope in red we've got breakdown possible retest resumption into that cycle low now this would also notice complete a two drives pattern into a cycle low which is very very typical for the stock market and also it's the easiest to identify pattern from an Elliot wave perspective I also think this would give rise to an ABC again it would just be much easier to identify we'd be able to get this long on out of here as ever a trade setup has to have an invalidation and so that is
what this downward sloping red resistance line is if indeed we forced an early cycle low here and it would be quite early that would only be day 33 versus if we were to run this into day 40ish that would give us a new low right around the same time that Bitcoin is due to put in its cycle low and and so on a balance of probabilities we can say with about a 70 or 80% probability we will be seeing a low into the early Jan time frame and of course if we get that then Happy
Days long and strong if we don't and we do have to entertain this is an early cycle low then the trigger for that would be a trend line break up here ready to catch any legs to the upside that may or may not be left in these markets on a balance probabilities though that two drives that cycle low ell Jan makes a lot of sense and it's really the same deal for the NASDAQ and the Dow we expect two drives into a cycle low followed by getting long out of that swing we expect the same
thing from the Dow some kind of re at resistance one final under cut and go and of course invalidation the same as ever is if we break out early then we get long put a stop below here and we look to ride this wave and see what the market will give and the last thing I wanted to touch on are the precious metal markets they still are missing one component and that component is a new lower low on a balance of probabilities there should be one final move to the downside here just to take out
that low just to run the stops and then it should be time to Turbo reverse and again we will be capturing that in the members section same deal for silver Silver's actually playing right it's got the lower low and it hasn't even confirmed the low probability breakout with the Steep trend line yet so I would think possibly one more low and we'll look if Silvera is going to lead here though we'll have to take note of that and the miners I usually Reserve these kind of mining ETFs and stuff for the members but you can
see they're also telling us that this move has been expected we've drew this yellow squiggle all the way back here sometime in September and you can see largely speaking things are going according to plan so find a low tradeable swing get some breakouts and then it should be time to conquer the precious metal markets and for Bitcoin I don't know if I've already covered Bitcoin but no real changes right looking for that cycle low we're getting very very close wherever it forms early Jan we'll get behind some Longs we will set a third and final
blowoff top angle and then hopefully that fourth comes in so I'm your boy camel I hope you have a fantastic holiday period I'm going to be chilling out waiting to see if we can get a nice high probability setup in a form of a two driers pattern across the board of course if you're a level three member I'll notify you in real time when I think we got tradable swings in for everyone else have a fantastic holiday I hope you're doing well in life and until next time take care from me all the best cheers
bye cam fin he's the man to see rocking the marcks with his contrarian stream trads like a pro no fear no shame sticking to his guns in his money game he's a bad ass oh yes indeed camel Finance got the lock its key taking a stories on ay ride tion
