we know that the US presidential election isn't about the raw number of votes you have it is all about 270 votes 270 Electoral College votes each state of the union has a particular number of electoral College votes assigned to it on the basis of population if you get over 270 then you win the election it really is as simple as that let's have a look at what we think will happen in most of the states because most of the states are safe for either kamla Harris or Donald Trump you can see we've colored them in
there on the basis of the polling we're pretty certain that most of these states will go this way if it doesn't then one or other the candidates is having an incredible night so there are seven left remaining these are the seven swing states that you've heard so much about between them all they're worth about 90 Electoral College votes all together so we've got Georgia here down here we've got North Carolina we've got Pennsylvania we've got uh Michigan we've got Wisconsin we've got Arizona and we've got Nevada these are the Electoral Battlegrounds the Arenas where this
election will be fought has been fought and will be won and lost on the basis of this what can we say on the basis of the current polling what can we say that we know well we can't say a lot because the polling has been so close the pulsers have been herding together basically saying it's too tight but there are a few states where one or other of Harris or Trump is a little bit further ahead so for example in Georgia Donald Trump is a bit further ahead than kamla Harris that's a state that Joe
Biden won last time first time a Democrat had done that in 30 years Arizona same thing first time a Democrat had won it since 96 but Trump is back ahead there cam Harris is in ahead in Nevada a state the Democrats have won in every election since 2008 and in Michigan again state that Donald Trump won back in 2016 but Kamala Harris is is ahead and that leaves Wisconsin it leaves Pennsylvania it leaves North Carolina what are the paths then in that situation you can see they're tantalizingly close to each other 247 versus 246 there
are three Paths of that would be available to them in that uh situation and really so much attention has been paid most of all to Pennsylvania in the northeast of the United States why well because it has more people living in it than either Wisconsin or North Carolina or indeed any of the other swing states with 19 Electoral College vote so you can see that let's for the sake of argument give that to camea Harris well if she were to win Pennsylvania in this scenario and it is just one scenario there are loads of different
possibilities in this scenario then she would only be four away from clinching the the that historic presidency she would only need for example Wisconsin she wins she would only need North Carolina even if Donald Trump would to win North Carolina or one he state twice then she would win and we can reverse it as well and we can see that if we give that to Donald Trump then he would win that is why so much attention has been pay to the state of Pennsylvania on the night itself it is almost certainly where this election will
be won and lost
