I'm Dom Nichols and this is Ukraine the latest today as the US welcomes Russia back in from the Diplomatic cold with so-called peace talks in Saudi Arabia we ask who now speaks for Europe and we examine the security priorities Ukraine has in the Cyber domain bravery takes you through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with Victory it's the worst Carnage that this world has seen since World War II Absolutely fascinating we are with you not just today or tomorrow but for a 100 years nobody's going to break us we're strong we're ukrainians it's
Tuesday the 18th of February 2 years and 354 days since the full scale Invasion began and today I'm joined by the telegraph's executive editor for audio Francis dley and Yona Huma Secretary of the economic security Council of Ukraine I started with the latest on the military situation in Ukraine and Russia of course the big news today is on the Diplomatic front with the meeting in Saudi Arabia between Russia and the US where they just finished holding actually so-called peace talks the meetings we had told broke up about 30 minutes ago after 4 and a half
hours of talks Bloomberg is saying that they've discussed a possible Trump Putin meet but the Russian representative there usikov next to Lov said it is difficult to name a specific date he said the Talks went quite well but then he couldn't really say anything else if he wanted to walk with confidence to any future Kremlin meeting not happening on the ground floor now unsurprisingly Russia has stuck to the usual negotiation script of demand the maximum play the victim don't give an inch talk this morning in Saudi Arabia of blocking Ukraine from joining NATO not being
enough to secure peace any peace deal is impossible without addressing the wider Security issues blah blah blah U these build on comments from the Russian representative to the UN yesterday that Ukraine has irrevocably lost Crimea and in his words that donet and luhansk people's republics as well as zapia and haon oblasts despite obviously not holding all the land in those last four this is Neza Russia's un rep he also reiterated the old Kremlin line that Ukraine must conduct elections before the implementation of any peace Agreements continuing efforts to falsely portray the current Ukrainian government as
illegitimate and then just on that theme in a statement today Dimitri pesov said Putin has made it clear on several occasions that he's willing to negotiate with zinski if the situation demands it nonetheless any legal agreements would need thorough discussion taking into account the potential challenge to zelinsky's legitimacy I mean it's just Rubbish there's no challenge to his legitimacy it's just a narrative that they're pushing they're trying to suggest that it's an objective fact that zalinski is illegitimate we're going to hear more of it we've said that before so just buckle up folks this is
just the start now more on all those negotiations and the wide diplomatic front from Francis shortly I'll just urge you just remember this is a typical russian/soviet Mentality don't get despondent folks when you see these news headlines don't feel powerless just arm yourself with information now speaking of that on the ground in Ukraine and Russia minor moves by Russia to the west of kurakov in the dbass no move in K oblast I wonder if that came up in the chat today between Marco Rubio and Sergey Lov we did however today get some more detail on
that Ukrainian strike overnight Sunday Monday on the ILY oil refinery in Russia's crat AR cry region that's east of the kers bridge and also the C I've been practicing this whole morning copon kinaya oil pumping station just to the east of that now the head of Ukraine Center for combating disinformation that's Andre kovalenko he said seven drones had struck the pumping station the largest such site in the Caspian pipeline Consortium and that had led authorities to take the station out of operation for a brief time Russia's mod Today saying their forces downed 70 Ukrainian drones
overnight including 24 over that kador cry region although no further details given there about what happened and any battle damage assessment uh inside Ukraine Russian attacks against Ukraine killed two injured 26 civilians over the last day according to Ukraine's Air Force Russia launched 176 drones at Ukraine overnight these obviously as these quote unquote peace talks are going on they were Launched from the Russian cities of arel Brians KK shatalov movo and pror act task as well as Russian occupied Crimea it's clear that they're interested in peace Ukraine air defense shot down 103 with another 67
brought down by electronic warfare or just decoys but that meant that six did get through now there are more in another report more alleged executions by Russian troops Ukrainian Ombudsman Demitri luminet said yesterday that three surrendering Ukrainian prisoners of war in an unspecified location were executed after a Russian Commander was seen giving the order to kill two of them again we report these one week can a couple more for me a Ukrainian draft officer injured yesterday was injured in a violent attack in the city of ZKA that's to the north of Lviv right over in
the west of the country whilst he was escorting two mobilized individuals to a medical evaluation the individual the man was Attacked with a knife or some other kind of bladed object the suspects in the case got away fled the scene investigators have launched inquiries they believe the likely motive was to help one of the escorted conscripts escape the draft officer but that's the latest in a series of recent attacks against military enlistment uh officers now then Francis as said I want to move quickly through the the battlefield updates because you're in The spotlight today European
countries we are told found themselves quote at a separate kids table in the negotiations on Ukraine because of insufficient investment in their defense this comes from Arman Pap who's the chief executive of Ryan matal speaking to the financial times an interview published to today is that your reading of the current situation and what else is the latest on the Diplomatic front thanks Dom many will argue that is indeed an accurate Summary but first of all let's just pick up from where we were yesterday with European leaders dashing to Paris for that emergency Summit to discuss
their response to the approach adopted by the United States sakir starm the British prime minister had declared that London would be willing to put troops on the ground in the event of a peace deal echoing similar sentiments by French president Emanuel macron and the Swedish government but after that meeting Olaf Schultz Germany's chancellor said that suggestion was completely premature highly inappropriate and that he was a little irritated indeed Germany Spain and surprisingly Poland all signaled reluctance to deploy troops to Ukraine as part of that settlement pledging support in terms of logistics and political support to
countries that will possibly want to provide such guarantees in the future those were the remarks by polish prime minister Donald Tusk now Schultz seems to be more outraged at the discussions about European security happening over the heads of the talks taking place between Russia and the us then the fact that those talks between Russia and the US are taking place over the heads of the Europeans the chancellor insisted that discussions on possible European troop deployments were being held over the heads of the ukrainians and that possible peace talk being discussed at the moment they Haven't
even started this is highly inappropriate to put it bluntly and honestly we don't even know what the outcome will be there I think many can guess Mr Schultz but anyway many other countries including the Netherlands are also said to be undecided so major splits remain NATO Secretary General Mark rut was also in attendance posting this morning that Europe is ready and will to take a leadership role in providing Ukraine with security Guarantees it's ready and willing to step up to lead in providing security guarantees for Ukraine ready and willing to invest a lot more in
our security the details will need to be decided but the commitment is clear now bear in mind that Mr rut is going to be split now divided between the Europeans and the Americans he's going to be trying to keep the Americans on side while perhaps being sympathetic to the European position and crisis so a very difficult Maneuvering act he will have to be playing there are real concerns as the Financial Times report today that Putin wants new NATO troops removed from the whole of the former Soviet Empire Trump is they think likely to potentially agree
to withdrawing US troops from the baltics and perhaps further west leaving the EU vulnerable to a Russian army that NATO governments warn is preparing for a larger conflict Beyond Ukraine that of course being the view of Many intelligence Services as we reported on the podcast over the past three years as such the German press are claiming that the EU is preparing a multi-billion Euro package perhaps as much as 700 billion euros to buy weapons for Ukraine officials say the plan will be revealed only after the German election on February 23rd to avoid controversy Berlin's foreign
minister bbok hinted that a package of Unprecedented scale is coming but again we return to the perennial question to achieve what what are Europe's objectives in Ukraine as Fran Stefan gayy at The Institute for strategic studies rights that's where Dom was last week the first step surely should be to Define our European objectives in Ukraine and access how vital they are to Europe's security only then can we determine what we are willing to risk the second step is to outline a coherent Operational plan and the third to identify the required forces the Mandate in which
they would operate and the duration of their deployment we are working backwards he goes on the longer we delay this debate particularly in Berlin the more apparent it becomes that either Germany does not view Ukraine as crucial to Europe's security architecture as its rhetoric suggests or that there is genuine decision paralysis driven by fear of committing to a Military Mission without direct US Military Support so big fissures remain and it looks more and more likely that there will have to be some kind of Coalition of the Willing formed that is willing to be more decisive
though they would be acting for the good of Europe I'm thinking here of countries like Britain Britain would not be in the direct sense conventional Warfare sense threatened in the short term by Russia certain countries on the Eastern flank Would be and yet those countries may not be all of them willing to act as decisively as London might that is a cause of well concern but also May well be the reality that we are in here but let's turn to the other major Summit of the moment that taking place between the US and Russia in
Saudi Arabia formulating a peace proposal for the war over the heads of Europe and Ukraine we've now had our first picture from inside the room where those officials Met for talks sitting at the top of a long brown table are two saudy officials sitting in front of us and Russian Flags pretty extraordinary in of itself also in the room were Mike Waltz The White House National Security adviser Marco Rubio the US Secretary of State and Steve witkoff the Middle East Envoy it's a striking image it really feels it belongs to a different age great Powers
determining the futures of Free People peoples at the stroke of a pen Putin is Ready to talk to president zinski if necessary he said which was good of him today uh with Dimitri pesov the Kremlin spokesperson saying Putin had repeatedly said that he is ready to speak about peace but that moscow's wider security issues must be addressed first to give that quote in full he said Putin himself said that he would be ready to negotiate with zelinski if necessary but the legal basis of agreements discussion considering the Reality that zelinsky's legitimacy can be questioned pretty
extraordinary coming from Moscow but nonetheless speaks to their strategy here of undermining president zalinski and his position and legitimacy in Ukraine now interestingly the Kremlin also tried to dangle a carrot to act that they are behaving in good faith they said with regard to Ukraine joining the EU it is The Sovereign right of any country but it is completely different when it comes To security issues and military alliances here we have a different approach that is well known clearly Moscow favors the idea that if it has to agree to anything it is the idea of
Ukraine joining the EU at some point but it would be presumably of a Ukraine that is more like Hungary and Slovakia politically than one that is as Westward leaning as this current Administration and it Bears repeating that EU membership is not not something that Until now has been considered as being at all likely in the medium term will that be something that is accelerated perhaps but to say that there are no security aspects of EU membership is also inaccurate there are some and we will of course be returning to that at some point very soon
I imagine in terms of this summit though nothing else concrete has come out as yet but the telegraph yesterday published the details of Trump's demand For a $500 billion Payback from Ukraine for its support in the war it goes far beyond Us control over the country's critical minerals it covers everything from ports and infrastructure to oil and gas and the larger resource base of the country as our writer Ambrose Evans Pritchards writes the terms of the contract that landed at zelinsky's office a week ago amount to the US economic colonization of Ukraine in legal perpetuity
it implies a burden of Reparations that cannot possibly be achieved the US will take 50% of recurring revenues received by Ukraine from the extraction of resources and 50% of the financial value of all new licenses issued to third parties for the future monetization of resources there will be a Lun on view of revenues in favor of the US that Clause means pay us first and then feed your children said One Source close to negotiations Ambrose goes on this states That for all future licenses the US will have a right of first refusal for the purchase
of exportable minerals Washington will have sovereign immunity and acquire near total control over most of Ukraine's commodity and resource economy the fund should have the exclusive right to establish the method selection criteria terms and conditions of all future licenses and projects it seems to have been written by private lawyers not the US Departments of state Or Commerce and he wraps up by saying president zinski himself proposed the idea of giving the US a direct state in Ukraine's Rare Earth elements and critical minerals on a visit to Trump Tower in September hoping to smooth the way
for continued arms deliveries he calculated that it would lead to us companies setting operations on the ground creating a political trip wire that would deter Putin from attacking again he probably did not expect to be Confronted with terms normally imposed on aggressor States defeated in war they are worse than the financial penalties imposed on Germany and Japan after their defeat in 194 5 most countries were ultimately net recipients of funds from the Victorious allies if this draft were accepted Trump's demands would amount to a higher share of Ukrainian GDP than reparations imposed on Germany at
Versa at the same time he seems to be willing to let Russia off the hook Entirely we'll have a link to that piece in the show notes essential reading I would say at the present moment it really speaks to just the shift in the white house towards Ukraine which is as many have said vindictive frankly it is clear that this deal could never be accepted most likely the Trump Administration are hoping for two outcomes either a lesser but still massively profitable counter offer from keev or an outright rejection Will trump Use that as an excuse
then to say that the US has been treated unfairly and cut them off many think so only a week ago it was the Russian economy that was widely believed the Americans would try to squeeze further that after all was what was Trump suggested in his first week of office but now at least in the short term the reverse looks set to happen the ruble is stabilizing somewhat the stock market has rallied and analysts believe that Moscow will be Able to avoid sanctions better because Trump has dismantled or crippled agencies that enforce them and third countries
are more likely to be willing to work with the Russians without fear of consequences even if a sharp reverse were to occur in these talks or further down the line months of economic buoyancy have just been gifted to the Russians as a result of the White House's actions that will sharpen the Focus of European leaders as they will realize they cannot rely on the Russian economy being what ultimately brings this war to a close now it will need to be military and political actions the two areas that Europe has been most hesitant to move on
yeah thanks France it's interesting this stuff about the rare earth minerals that you're discussing there and am is's article I mean I think a lot of the deposits are in Ukrainian land currently Occupied by Russia so I'd be very very interested if there was any any whiff at all out of these talks of the Americans trying to deal directly with the Russians over access to those minerals um well maybe want to keep an eye on but just before we move on Francis intered in your thoughts on this now you quoted Mark R NATO Secretary General
earlier on it was on the sidelines of the Paris Summit yesterday but he was talking about you know Europe can do this Europe Is ready to do that blah blah blah he's an he's the Secretary General of NATO so why is he now assuming this position of speaking for Europe doesn't that just underline that that there is no natural leader in Europe right now especially with regard to defense and security issues doesn't that actually under undermine in some ways that Europe doesn't have somebody able to speak for it and has to rely on the NATO
Secretary General it puts him in an awkward Position as you say where is he between Europe and the us but what do you think was this a slip up you think by Mr Rutter to sort of be speaking as if he was representing Europe I wouldn't go as far as a slip up I think that he's probably just trying to desperately reassure the United States and others that Europe is willing to act based on the conversations that he has had in those meetings but I take the point and I agree that the fact is most
journalists politicians have taken those comments and and run with them which really speaks to the fact that given NATO is now split because of the United States position that there is as you say no natural leader that everybody is waiting to hear Clarity from so we look to Nato we're looking at the European Union URS Leon Deion we're looking at Mark rer and that speaks to the well crisis that we are in there is no Natural leader of Europe at the moment and there is no natural Coalition of leaders of Europe either can you imagine
if for example in different circumstances Britain France and Germany all had a coherent cohesive strategic posture that they were offering what Mark R would be saying at the moment would be listen to them but instead he is the one that is posting the statements about what the European position May well become in the coming Weeks it is quite extraordinary and I wonder whether this is ultimately going to be sustainable somebody is going to have to fill this void of indecision by decisive action K starma has made a first stabed it in terms of the question
of some kind of postwar settlement that involves troops on the ground but there needs to be much much clearer Clarity very very soon I would wager from Europe in terms of who is leading this effort and what coalitions of powers are Willing to act decisively to change the calculations that will be currently being made by Moscow which will be very very advantageous to them will it be kakalis will it be Ursula Von Deion will it be Emanuel macron at last coming off the fence somewhat and acting as opposed to just saying the right things these
are the questions of the moment but it's certainly based on the reactions of yesterday it's not going to be led by Germany and it's not going to be led by Poland it's going to have to be London it's going to have to be Paris or it's going to have to be a coalition of powers that have not yet formed perhaps Dom perhaps as you were saying yesterday using Jeff as the foundation of some kind of new Coalition of the willing but it's a real precarious moment indeed it is I would uh I would just caution
perhaps to don't write off Germany just yet they' got elections in 10 days time be very interested to see The outcome of that and and what may come of it but you're right there's a job vacancy at the moment for some European to step up and be the talking head on all this now on in that vein this morning I went over to the institute for government that's a think tank here in in central London next to right next to St James's Palace in central London just a Stones Throw from bakan Palace but don't throw
stones at Buckingham Palace is my advice now John Healey was there the British defense secretary it talked about a range of things I won't go through it all but just pull out a few bits and pieces I think pertinent to this he said this is a quote from John Healey the decisions that we make right now over the coming weeks will not only Define the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine but the security of our world for a generation to come Ukraine has the lessons which tell us how we can do things differently In the
future as well as the imperative that tells us we must European nations need to step up on European Security on defense spending and on Ukraine especially over the last year we've been doing just that so saying the right things he was then asked about what the minimum credible force would be that the UK could provide for any peace deterrent force or whatever you want to call it I mean peacekeeping is the short hand but of course it's a very loaded term when You say peacekeeping Force so you I I I tried to stay away from
it but anyway he was asked about a minimum credible force and he said we need a security guarantee for Ukraine that is capable of delivering what president Trump has pledged that he says he wants which is a durable piece interesting this is British defense secretary almost talking as if Trump was his boss which you know take your pick anyway he carries on that requires an end to the Russian attack And no repeat of that in the future the European countries have to play a leading part of that guarantee but require a back stop from the
US because in the end it is only the US that can provide the deterence to Putin that will prevent him attacking again the detail of that is being developed K starma Britain's prime minister will discuss that with President Trump when they meet shortly but the one thing I'm not going to do is discuss details of the work That we're doing the discussions we're having with allies and with the US thought that was really interesting I me that absolute Defence to the US possibly a reflection of military and political reality but talking about only the US
can provide deterrence to Putin now there's a lot of talk in defense and security circles about how independent Britain's nuclear deterrent is and when we're talking about deterrence let's cut to the chase here nuclear deterrence now The firing chain for Britain's missiles is completely independent of the US industry not so because we buy a lot of you know a large part of the boats from the US and a large part of of the missiles as well but the actual firing chain is Holy within the gift of of the United Kingdom UK's nuclear deterrent is declared
to Nato and so therefore says that that Britain will in extremists use nuclear weapons to defend and attack on Any country in the joint expeditionary Force because all 10 nations in the joint expeditionary Force are in NATO so they've all agreed this Mutual defense Clause that an attack on one is an attack on all they'll all come to each other's Mutual Aid up to an including the British nuclear deterrent so if I was allowed a second question to the British defense secretary this morning but I was not only allowed the one if I was ask
a sec going to ask a second one I'd say well why doesn't Jeff have a mutual defense Clause everyone's sort of signed up to that in principle you do it through NATO why doesn't Jeff have a mutual defense Clause to which you can invite Ukraine and that would get away from the difficulties of the US or you know baly Hungary Slovakia etc etc why doesn't Jeff have a Mutual defense Clause if you're happy to do that under NATO why not do it under the Jeff umbrella and of course that goes up to And includes Britain's
nuclear deterrent which if you tell me mod that we are entirely independent of the United States in our firing chain and the decisions over the ultimate use of nuclear weapons well let's see it then but this statement today from John hey was very very much couched in you know we'll only do it the back stop of the US guarantee from the US only the US can provide deterence to Putin anyway one to continue discussing at length just on That I said to him here we go so I said if you listen to the signal rather
than noise from Munich and Ramstein the Americans are saying they'll do China they expect Europe to do Europe why is it still a priority for Britain that we tilt to the indo-pacific and not Euro Atlantic security this is a much vaunted admittedly started under the last conservative government about Britain's tilt to the Indo Pacific which I think was there to flatter ourselves supposed To catch the Americans eye not sure they're interested this it's more to do with Britain feeling brilliant on the world stage but why tilt to the Indo Pacific and not Euro Atlantic security
he said We're a nation that's made a commitment to Nato first uh blah blah blah he said on the indopacific the previous government confirmed that the indopacific Tilt had been delivered we have commitments and Partnerships which are profound in the indopacific from Orcus submarine and Technology to gcap Next Generation fighters to other arrangements and we can do a contribution to the balance of regional Security in the Indo Pacific in particular to the Us and other allies in a variety of ways technology industry diplomacy and military training we will provide a role fundamentally our first responsibility
is in NATO and that's where my focus is that's where the prime minister's focus is and that was at the Heart of the terms of reference to our Strategic Defense review that is ongoing supposedly reporting in the spring although I think that's been delayed so very clear there he didn't say it but I think that's the end of the Tilt I think that well he said the Tilt has been delivered there's no more tilt I think Britain is now focusing firmly on Euro Atlantic security good it needs to happen and I think realistically that's all
we can do but I thought that was Quite a um quite a not an admission I think it's just a statement of the blindingly obvious but I do hope the priority for the SDR is Euro Atlantic security and what we can actually do in our part of the world and that I'm sure will be of more interest to the US in trying to send a a carrier strike group to the Indo Pacific carrier strike group basically being Shand for the entire Royal Navy Francis so there's a lot riding on uh Prime minister starmus to to
the US next week to go and visit Donald Trump but one of the roles of any deterrent force that we're talking about peacekeeping Force deterrent Force what have you would be to actually keep eyes on what Russia is up to movement in the ground air and sea now that might take a huge amount of troops big number of troops perhaps more than Europe is prepared or able to stump up but you have also been looking at how the Cyber domain and Artificial intelligence might be able to play a role here would you like to introduce
Our Guest Francis thanks Dom yes I'm delighted to welcome our guest Alona HEV Secretary of the economic security Council of Ukraine that was the institution established in 2021 to identify and counter internal and external threats to Ukraine's economic security she's worked closely with the parliament of Ukraine and the office of the Commander and Chief of the Armed Forces Alona there are many in Europe who still seem to think that the danger from Russia is limited largely to Conventional Warfare and therefore that as long as Article 5 holds then European security is assured but that seems
to underestimate the evolving importance of hybrid warfare using Ai and other Cutting Edge technology which has been deployed now for many years by Moscow and that's on top of the other acts of sabotage that we've covered on this Podcast so I wonder if I can ask you what are the of the most serious cases of that which we've seen in the Ukraine context and what might that reveal about the longer term dangers to wider Western Security if Moscow succeeds with its Ambitions for Ukraine welcome hello thank you very much for having me today and thanks
a lot for the previous discussion very important to have these talks about the geopolitical changes and given all these possible decisions about Cire or peace talks or whatever it is important to have in mind that the Russian aggression is not only in the conventional mode it's also the hybrid Dimension and this hybrid Dimension also demonstrates us that the Russian aggression is going on not only against Ukraine but actually it's already ongoing both against the US and the EU against NATO States so for me it's very important to see that the hybrid aggression against Ukraine for
example Began earlier than the classical aggression uh and even before 2014 we already faced some hybrid attacks including economic cotion and including uh cyber attacks uh if we are talking about uh The fullscale Invasion uh the cyber attacks began uh several days um before uh the actual attacks against Ukraine and they covered our military sector including the ministry of Defense but also some other sectors including banking uh so we saw that these attacks Were used to make ukrainians afraid of the aggression more but also they were very much correlated with other attacks in other dimensions
so a very good example from my point of view is the attack against Ukrainian civil infrastructure and actually there were a series of such cyber attacks during winter 2022 2023 when there were also huge missile attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure for the first time so we Saw a real correlation between different dimensions of the aggression and we also understood that some cyber attacks are not just some abstract attacks against Ukrainian militaries for example or some special services but actually against the Civil population another very good example of the severe attack is the Cyber attack against
Ukrainian largest Telecom operator kear which took place last year and actually it led to the destruction of about 40% of its support In infrastructure for you just to understand why it is important for Ukraine it's not only about some communication Services of course it is important but also this Telecom operator is used by many people to achieve the information to gain the information about raid alerts so it's also the part of security infrastructure and that is why it was very negative for a big part of ukrainians what I also want to say is that we
conducted a big research of the Different attacks in different dimensions of the Russian Federation and what we saw is that they are correlated first and that they are also sometimes committed against Ukrainian allies for example uh we saw a lot of situations when some European parliaments were voting in favor uh of Ukraine and at the same day there were cyber attacks against such parliaments it's very political example but there are a lot of other examples which are um much less Political we also understand that cyber incidents have affected the global financial sector so for example
according to the international monetary fund they CA 12 billion indirect losses for the past two decades so by telling this I'm trying to say that for example the Russian Federation could also use the cyber attacks to ruin the adversary State national economies and actually it's their usual t itic and maybe the last for the intro but not least is that I think that in the European Vision and in the US Vision like information domain and cyber domain sometimes are assessed not together but if we look in the doctrine of the Russian Federation so the information
attacks and the cyber attacks are always interconnected so there are even units who are working on both cyber and information attacks that is why it is very important to ESS and to address these attacks in a more complex manner as a part of the bigger Hybrid Warfare and for me it's also an very important argument just to demonstrate to those countries who are still not sure whether to support Ukraine and whether to take the situation seriously because once again cyber attacks are being organized not only against Ukraine and the cyber warfare is already taking place
against the NATO countries thanks Lona I'm going to ask a a blunt question here but do you think that There would ever be a situation where a hybrid attack a Cyber attack would be enough in and of itself Beyond say t tanks rolling across a border to see Article Five of NATO invoked So my answer is yes it could actually trigger the invocation of NATO's Article 5 and there were even several official statements from different NATO officials that cyber defense is part of Nat's core task of collective defense and actually the NATO has already decided
that Cyber Attack could impact and could be as harmful uh as modern conventional attacks but the question is what criterias do we use to invocate uh the article five and the answer from NATO as of now is that uh they will deal with each situation on the case by case basis so for me it's not a perfect scenario because you're like yes it gives you flexibility but on the other hand it does not draw any red lines for the aggressor States so uh they don't feel Uh that something actually will happen if they violate this
uh approach I think that a very good development was that in 2024 there was a decision to establish the NATO integrated cyber defense center and we'll see how it will work but I think that it really could enhance all this network protection and could elaborate some common decisions and approaches but for me the biggest question is to form some common position of NATO on this and actually we have the Decision that the Cyber attack can violate the article five but we still do not understand what criterias shall be meet mat I also don't like the
discussions when many people say that for example today the cyber attacks are not so severe as usual attacks for example if you will look on the situation in Ukraine of course like cyber attacks were not as harmful as missile attacks but maybe in five years given the development of Technologies The situation could be very different and in the international humanitarian law there is a very sad joke that the humanitarian law develops not very fast and it's always late for one war so my Approach is to develop a little bit quicker and to be prepared with
both politic IAL and legal decisions to meet the reality which we will face I think like in 2 three years well let's get into that then so what security guarantees for Ukraine would be possible that would be as it were covering the Cyber domain in a way that you think would be adequate to protect it as part of the conversations taking place at the moment so first of all I think that can look at the already signed agreements security agreements between Ukraine and some other countries so most of them already have some parts on Cyber
defense some of these agreements already have the understanding of even of cyber Aggression and it's very good but I believe that it may be not enough because if we for example talking only about the guarantees for Ukraine it's always good but when we are talking about hybrid Warfare I think that it's not limited by like state borders and it's more about elaborating and preparing some common answer both from Ukraine and the countries which will provide these guarantees because as I stipulated before the cyber attacks are Committed not only against Ukraine sometimes they committed even simultaneously
against Ukraine and against some other countries so the response also shall be very Collective as for the part of these security guarantees so of course it's important to work together on the attribution of cyber attacks and make a clear political attribution not only to some groups who are making these attacks but also to the state who are backing these attacks and I think that we like this approach in the international Arena and the other part of these guarantees is also depriving the Russian Federation and maybe some other countries which are helping of the instruments which
make this cyber attacks possible because unfortunately the Russian Federation is still using a lot of Western Technologies against Ukraine and now also against the west and I think that of course now there are a lot of talks Concerning like sanctions as a part of some peace deal or whatever but I believe that some sanctions against the Russian Federation which deprive it from the access to the newest Western Technologies shall be very ongoing independently on the some geopolitical developments in Ukraine thank you and just a couple of other questions for me if I may I know
that your expertise as well beyond cyber security was the economic war and I wonder if you can Assess your Reflections on the developments of the past week and what the ramifications of that might well be for the economic front in this conflict do you see Russia as putting put in a stronger economic position by the decisions made by the White House I think it's hard to say just now because like we still lack a lot of uh details so even talking about sanctions policy so a lot of uh people are very uh unhappy with some
statements uh from the US but still not so many people discussed the news from the last week when the US imposed new sanctions against the Russian Federation in the Cyber domain so it mean that we still have some topics even in the economic sphere on which we we can work together maybe we shall find some different arguments as for the other developments so of course for me it's very important to understand that sanctions and expert control shall not be just a part of the Deal and shall not be put off uh the table if for
example we have some kind of ceasefire because having some sanctions against the Russian Federation and uh weakening its military complex is also a part of security guarantees for Ukraine so I think that we should be prepared to discuss sanctions and Export control in a more broader Vision than we were discussing before because today there was a very good statement from the EU that the EU will proceed with Sanctions not withstanding the position of the US but I think that it's important to keep the Western Coalition because to implement sanctions separately will be very very difficult
so we shall look at this instrument using some more sophisticated Manner and putting it as an instrument for Ukraine's security and also for some strategic achievements for the Western countries including the us as for the other economic questions which which Were raised throughout last week for example concerning the ideas of the new American Administration about uh Ukrainian resources so once again I think that a lot of details are still lacked because in general of course it could bring some Investments to Ukraine it it it also could be some part of the guarantees because I think
that if the Russian Federation understands that the US has the economic interest in the Ukrainian development they will be not Willing to attack again so there is some right ideas in this but I also understand that Ukrainian economy was very much ruined by War and actually it will need a lot of Investments to be renewed and the Russian Federation shall somehow pay for this so I think that we like the discussion about this part of the question so the Trump Administration likes to speak about Ukrainian depth in this and actually so yeah we are very
thankful to all other part our partners For the help and I understand that they may want to have some kind of cooperation more but on the other hand the Russian Federation did all this and the Russian Federation caused the situation when the American Tax taxpayers needed to invest their money into the protection of Ukraine and European security NATO security so actually I see now not so many questions to Russia but I think that the Russian Federation needs to pay for everything And I think that it will be a next step I very much hope at
least that it will be uh The Next Step uh of this discussion well thank you Elena for your Reflections on these subjects one final question from me we had Sana morinet Ukrainian journalist based in London on the podcast last week summarizing the reaction amongst ukrainians to the decision by President Trump to speak to President Putin and the ongoing talks in Saudi Arabia I wonder if you could just Offer your Reflections as a Ukrainian on your on what's happened and and the direction of travel in the last few days of course sure so I think that's
first of all of course ukrainians are those who want just peace so our main desire of course we are the country who suffers this terrible war and ukrainians are being killed every day so today we discussed some cyber attacks which could be like part of war crimes yes but actually classic war crimes are being Done even when we are speaking now because there are attacks against the Civil population each day and of course everybody wants it to be stopped and I think that some peace process could be welcomed on the other hand like an inter
as an international lawyer I can also say that by peace talks we shall not destroy the international order and it's very important important to keep some basic rules and preserve it unless we'll just ruin the international law not only For us but also for the future Generations so that is why I think that some of the meetings are not very positive some of them are more positive and we'll see more in the coming days I think that also a lot of ukrainians are now looking at Europe with more optimism but on the other hand I
think that it's also a moment for the EU to become a more active player in the international Arena unfortunately I didn't see it yesterday Frankly Speaking because the Results of the yesterday's meeting were a little bit confusing because not there were no real decisions which were made and I hope that once again so we'll see some decisions in the coming days but what I also believe is that we might see the situation differently but the new American Administration is doing everything very quickly and that is why we need to prepare all our proposals and the
uh Collective proposals maybe from the EU from Ukraine whatever also very Quickly because if we cannot manage to prepare our position which is also um very basic which is realistic enough and has some legal grounds then somebody will prepare the answers uh for us and we'll just be looking on this and I think that it's the worst situation so I think that we shall make some conclusions from the last week and we shall work on the possible solutions and having in mind all the interests especially of course the interest of the Ukrainian people because I
believe that some part of Ukrainian Society still understands that we will not gain everything just for example in 2025 but I also believe that we want to see some kind of just ice in this process and bringing Justice and rule of law even some elements of this to these discussions is really crucial goal for both for Ukraine and our International partners well thanks Lona and thank you Francis Let's start drawing to a to a close there alone I'll come back to you at the end if I may for any any final thoughts you want to
leave us with just quick thought for me and I've been I've been looking at that comment from John Healey this morning Britain's defense secretary talking about any postconflict guarantees and I'll read you the the quote again he said the European countries have to play a leading part of that guarantee but require ire a back Stop from the US because in the end it is only the US that can provide the deterrence to Putin that will prevent him attacking again I mean I think that is it in a nutshell what is the back stop from the
US if it's not a credible conventional Force which you could say Europe should be able to Pony up if it's not a nuclear deterrent which Britain has France has Britain's declared it to Nato don't think the French have but what is this back stop from the US They're not going to put more troops in there they got 50,000 in South Korea I think I think the US they not going to put any more troops into urom they've got three brigades I think please correct me if you know better than me I think the US has
three brigades in Europe at the moment one of which is the 173rd Airborne in Italy another one is a striker Brigade in Germany but I think that one that's the only heavy metal Brigade that the US has on European soil right now so in terms of any back stop any credible conventional defense the US have already ruled out putting troops on the ground but even if they went the whole hog I think they're talking about three brigades please tell me if I'm wrong on that and what do you think this back stop is that can
only come from the US that cannot be found anywhere else because I think it is that's dangerous territory back to what I said earlier on About Britain almost undermining not of course not meaning to but undermining the argument about an independent nuclear deterrent if that's what we're saying the only thing that Putin cares about Francis final thoughts please well thanks Tom and just to say I completely agree with you on that it is is simply extraordinary how many European countries seem to think that they do not have an adequate defense beyond what the United States
provides despite the Nuclear umbrella despite the number of forces combined that Europe can offer despite the fact that Ukraine one Army has managed to deliver near fatal blows to the Russian army let alone dozens and yet you have defense secretaries you have leaders who are stating publicly that they need the US for their own defense what privately let alone publicly when you have a foe who's on the March it is mindboggling frankly but I think it's Also just important to register the concern Beyond Europe Canada Australia New Zealand countries also very concerned about the direction
of travel and I know many of you in those countries have written in to express your concerns your anger your frustration at the events of recent days we hear you and I'm sure sure that soon we will be able to report in more detail about the Maneuvers being made in Australia in Canada in New Zealand and Elsewhere by the shift of the Trump Administration in foreign policy that implicates them too so bear with us on that and just related to that if you check out battle lines this week Roland interviews Michael ignatiev who served as
leader of the liberal party and leader of the opposition from 2008 until 2011 in Canada he's a former historian a great biographer of the philosopher Isaiah bin read that a couple of years ago and we'll play a clip from that now Canada will be absorbed into you know a sphere of influence and our problem will be that we'll lose our political sovereignty which matters a hell of a lot to Canadians but it's not going to matter to others I I think the Europeans have an awful lot to worry about they've made a historic bargain that
began with 45 with the arrival of American troops with Marshall Plan and all that stuff in which that generation of American leadership from Roosevelt Truman onwards Understood a linkage between American Security and European security that was dictated by the Cold War antagonism with the Russians and now uh it seems to me if you had a sphere of influence in which they basically come out of the Ukraine war saying basically you know if if Russia wants 25% or 20% of Ukrainian territory kind of okay with us I mean that's basically what heg said this is where
we Are I think this is also existential for Europe is that Europe after 1945 built its welfare states the things that we're proudest of I'm talking to you from Europe and I love it they built their welfare states on basically transferring defense costs to the Americans now I think it's going to change and so the pressure to maintain the the social commitments the welfare commitments that Britain has made that France has made that Germany has made it's basically the social model of Europe will come under a tremendous amount of pressure from the sheer necessity of
of increasing uh defense expenditure thanks Francis Alona as our guest today would you like the very final words so first of all thank you very much for having me today and thanks a lot for you for your support to Ukraine I believe that the coming weeks will bring a lot of changes and it's Very important to hold our Unity so so thank you once again and maybe the last few lines about your final idea concerning what us could do actually and what unique power that the US have I think that this is actually in the
economic Dimension because if we are talking about the economic sanctions that was what uh Ukraine was asking before The fullscale Invasion so we asked uh to stop from invading Ukraine by impos in uh quick sanctions and the US didn't do it back then and I think that maybe uh some kind of uh economic guarantees uh some kind of um real package of sanctions which could be a part of the guarantees actually is important part from the yes and Trump Administration has already noted that the current sanction regime is effective maybe as a level of two
points from 10 points so maybe they can propose something else or we can make them propose something else uh so by the end This thank you once again for inviting and I very much uh hope that there will be both just peace and victory of the democratic World Ukraine the latest is an original podcast from the telegraph created by David nolles to support our work and stay on top of all the Ukraine news analysis and dispatches from the ground please subscribe to the telegraph you can get your first three months for just one pound at
Www.telegraph.co.uk Ukraine thelatest or sign up to dispatches our Foreign Affairs newsletter bringing stories from our award-winning foreign correspondents straight to your inbox we also have a Ukraine live blog on our website where you can follow updates as they come in throughout the day including insights from regular contributors to this podcast we also do the same for other breaking International stories you can Listen to this conversation live at 1: p.m. London time each weekday on Twitter spaces follow the telegraph so you don't miss it to our listeners on YouTube please note that due to issues beyond
our control there is sometimes a delay between broadcast and upload so if you want to hear Ukraine the latest as soon as it's released do refer to podcast apps if you appreciated this podcast please consider following Ukraine the latest on your preferred podcast app and Leave us a review as it really helps others find the show please also share it with those who may not be aware we exist you can also get in touch directly to ask questions or give comments by emailing Ukraine pod telegraph.co.uk we do continue to read every message you can also
contact us directly on Twitter you can find our Handles in the description for this episode as ever we're especially interested to hear where you listening from around the World Ukraine the latest was today produced by Rachel Porter executive producers are Louisa Wells and David NS
