Bitcoin has enjoyed this incredible run Matt as we look ahead now to 2025 12 months from now Matt you know it's December 2025 we're talking here Bitcoin is where Matt what do you forecast we're gonna have it's great to be here we're gonna have the same conversation that Bitcoin has had an incredible run we expect Bitcoin to be up above $200,000 by this time next year there're just three irrepressible sources of demand driving the market you have ETFs that are vacuuming up Bitcoin you have public companies like micro strategy vacuuming up Bitcoin and now we're
talking about governments vacuuming up Bitcoin at the end of the day it comes down to supply and demand there's too D too much demand not enough Supply and so I think the price goes higher in 20125 I me Matt rarely though do you see demand for an asset so sustained over this kind of a a time period right does it need new catalysts or are I mean is this effectively just a momentum trade with nothing really to stop it well I think the real story is people just wake up to bitcoin at different Paces we
saw retail investors get there first we've seen companies and financial advisors get there we're starting to see institutions get there and once they realize that bitcoin's not going away that it belongs in a portfolio they have to get off zero get to 1% Black Rock now says 2% so it's just this cascading series series of educational breakthroughs that brings new people into the market look Bitcoin is now a global macro asset it's a few trillion dollars pretty much every investor should have some and we still have a large number of investors to go that's why
I think this is maybe a momentum trade maybe it's a a one-off introduction but we're still early in that Journey we have many quarters to go in terms of potential Catalyst Matt I got to ask you about Trump and and his support for this idea of a Bitcoin strategic Reserve map what do you make of that what do you think the odds are that actually happens if it did happen what would it mean for the price yeah I'll answer that last one first if we do get a Bitcoin strategic Reserve where the government is buying
Bitcoin and there's a bill from Senator lumus that had the government buy a million Bitcoin $200,000 Bitcoin is going to be looking quaint you're going to be looking at three four $500,000 Bitcoin it's just too big a story because governments all around the world would have to do it when this initial idea was floated I was somewhat skeptical of it but over the months it hasn't gone away in fact we continue to see leaders in the Trump Administration suggest that they're open to it I still think you know maybe it's less than a 50% chance
but it's not zero and again if it happens or if we start to see it happening in other countries you're going to see you know a rip up in Bitcoin that will make 2024 look pretty docel in comparison and one of the other predictions that you have for the coming year um is that coinbase is going to be a big beneficiary here so big a beneficiary that it's going to surpass Schwab uh in terms of a brokerage size talk us through how you get from here to there yeah right now it's about half the size
of Charles Schwab and we think it could reach that and more coinbase is this really unique opportunity because there was so much regulatory suppression over the past few years coinbase hasn't have major competitors bubbling up to challenge it it's sort of had a degree of regulatory capture if you can believe it and as a result it's been able to sustain its high margins in brokerages and then layer on things like stable coins like it's layer to network base it's executing extremely well it has a limited competitive environment and it's in an industry that's growing 100%
year-over-year when you add those three things together you'll see this Vault up the Spectrum it'll also help if it gets into the s& P 500 you see institutions buying it broadly but I think it's a really unique situation driven by the fact that there was so much regulatory uncertainty it cleared the competitive fat path and now it's going to reap those rewards and build really you know maybe an unsalable position leading this industry in the US and Matt you know another theme we're talking about heading into next year is whether that IPO window mat swings
open uh I'm curious whether you think you're going to see more crypto names next year teslo public markets and if so Matt any names on your radar yeah absolutely again this is a story of regulatory suppression you can imagine the negative regulatory environment sort of pushing the lid down on crypto for the past few years and now that's being released L lid's going to come off where you think we'll see multiple firms come to Market firms like Kraken which is a coinbase competitor firms like Anchorage which is a leading custodian chainalysis which is a Digital
Data firm there may be a dozen high quality companies that are big enough to go public they're due to go public and I think they will go public and that will just further normalize this industry every American will crypto in their brokerage account through these companies we'll see Wall Street coverage it's going to be a very positive theme and I think you're you're maybe already starting to see that you're starting to see companies uplist into markets I think the IPO window explodes in 2025 gosh Matt all of your predictions are positive ones I mean I
listen I got to ask you what could go wrong because the way you're describing it like is perfect right for for crypto investors across the board are there any risks here this has been what's been keeping me up at night reer writing my bullish thesis of course there are risk the biggest risk is that politicians don't deliver on their promises we don't get regulatory clarity as fast as we think we don't get a highquality stable coin bill or the industry the traditional Finance industry interferes with those bills so they're not really Pro crypto and sort
of pro eonic Freedom regulation and politics are supposed to be a big driver of crypto in 2025 and if they deliver on their promises I think it's an extraordinary bull market but you know the proof will be in the pudding we haven't seen these bills we haven't seen the Strategic Reserve so that's the biggest risks is is politicians not delivering Matt always great to see you and to have you on the show happy holidays thank you happy holidays to you all too
