the Bull Run is back with a vengeance bags are packed bears are wrecked and Bitcoin is flying only one question remains though how much higher will we go stay tuned to find out what the bulls and bears are saying plus where we expect BTC to top out at the end of this cycle as the market gets more and more bullish cycle top predictions are getting more and more extravagant it's classic bull market Behavior the higher BTC goes the more sacrilegious it becomes to take profits you'd have to be a fool to do so don't you
know it's going to a million bro well you know what they say Bears get to sound smart and Bulls get to make money and there is probably some truth to this uh 10 years ago you could have bought one Bitcoin for $375 and if you had told your coworker it was going to be worth $100,000 in a decade uh you might have been laughed out of the office speaking from experience here but here we are and uh Look Who's Laughing Now crypto has defied disbelief many times before and there's no reason for us to think
that this time is any different nonetheless the road to Lasting success in investing and trading is paved with a good riskmanagement ment strategy good risk management means that your first priority is not losing what money you have and making profit of course comes second if you adopt this mindset then your price targets are likely to be more conservative than some of the more bullish predictions circulating online and when all is said and done your crypto gains from this bull market may be smaller than those of the most determined and fortunate Bulls however you will be
far more likely to actually realize your gains and turn those numbers on your screen into lifechanging money in this case your conservative targets saved you from the fate of those poor souls who are going to watch their bags turn to dust waiting for Price targets that never came if you think about it like that then it's actually a pretty good idea to lower your targets or at least be a little bit more skeptical of the highest ones floating around because this is a choice that faces all of us exit the market with a suboptimal amount
of profit or try and squeeze every last drop out of the cycle top failing in the process and becoming the person who loses money in a bull market time in the markets beats time in the markets as they say this could easily turn into a video about just taking profit but I'll stop here just consider what your own targets are and how they shape your decisions a well-thought out price target for BTC and a company in ex strategy could make you rich conversely a Target that gets higher and higher as the market becomes more and
more euphoric well that doesn't end so well usually with that said it's time to look at some of those price targets our most conservative price estimates for BTC have already been smashed and frankly we'd be a little bit worried if they hadn't and that's because they are specifically predictions for the yearly high of 2024 and the year well it's almost over most analysts agree that this will not be the macro cycle top which is widely anticipated to come at some point in 2025 as for 2024 there is barely a month left BTC went on an
insane tear all throughout November not bothering to stop for breath all the way from 70k to 99k by the time you're actually watching this it may have knocked down the cell wall at 99k and reach that hallowed six figure Mark or we may finally see a pullback and everyone who had been sidelined this whole time can finally get an entry either way at the time of making this video BTC is hanging out between 90k and 99k at a boy and this means that the predictions that BTC would reach 80k or 90k in 2024 have come
true and then some in this price bracket two institutional forecasts stand out on the lower end is bitwise which describes itself as the world's largest crypto crypto index fund manager and these guys have been calling for an ATK BTC in 2024 since December of last year bitwise reiterated this prediction again in October of this year in a blog post Chief investment officer Matt Hogan specified that he expected BTC to hit 8K in Q4 of this year if these three conditions were met firstly the 2024 us elections would have to result in quote anything but a
democratic sweep and this is of course because the Democratic party has presided over the war on crypto in the US whereas Republicans have become very Pro crypto of late and lo and behold the Republicans won the house senate and presidency Tri factor in November political conditions check secondly the Federal Reserve would have to make a second interest rate cut and China's Central Bank would have had to introduce a second stimulus package I say second because the fed and the People's Bank of China had already completed a first round of these measures in September so Hogan
was looking for topup measures and these were duly delivered in November the FED cut by an additional 25 basis points and the People's Bank of China injected $200 billion of liquidity into the economy macro conditions check the third condition is simply that there is no crypto specific Black Swan that tanks the markets before the end of the year of course anything is possible but BTC has already blasted through Hogan's Target without a hitch no uh Aven catastrophes so far check so all Hogan's conditions were met and just one month on from his blog post BTC
ripped through ATK like it was confetti so what can we make of this well firstly congratulations on the successful prediction all the pieces fell into place perfectly and the 2024 Target which was originally set in December of last year has been met there is something to be said for bitwise sticking to this Target and not raising it after BTC raced up to 74k in March it takes real conviction to stick to a plan amid Market Euphoria which tends to make people move their goal posts further and further away and end up round tripping their profits
as a result that's not going to be bitwise because they are playing the game with a cool head and not succumbing to the bull market Mania they may not make the biggest gains in the world but they'll have no cause for regret either then again they could have been a little more ambitious considering the bullish macro political and crypto specific factors that coalesced in 2024 a one firm that did raise its Target was the research and brokerage firm Bernstein alike bitwise Bernstein analysts had also previously forecasted ATK by the end of the year however after
ETF Euphoria drove BTC all the way up to 74k in q1 Bernstein figured that 80k was too low in March it raised its 2024 Target to 90k and in September it reiterated the same Target and added that it would be conditional on a trump victory in November this prediction has aged very well and since btc's yearly high will now be closer to 90k than 80k we can say that Bernstein forecast was more accurate than bit [Music] [Applause] wise's the coin Bureau deals page it won't make you stronger but it will make you better at crypto
the four-year Cycle Theory suggests that BTC will Top out in 2025 likely in Q4 but even if we dismiss this somewhat esoteric idea that BTC is programmed to go up at a certain point in time we have plenty of reasons to believe that price will continue melting upwards over the coming months specifically the maturation of BTC as a major asset class the increas in interest from ETF buyers financial institutions and governments and the Persistence of the debasement trade I.E people betting on the devaluation of fiat currency there were a few structural factors that led some
analysts to believe that 100K is just the beginning for example AR invest recently suggested a range between 104k and 124k not as a cycle top but as a target for the end of 2024 and meanwhile standard charted has been calling for 120k BTC in 2024 since July of last year if BTC keeps up its current momentum then that prediction is on course to age very well indeed maybe 120k will be reached by Year's End or maybe it won't but the more important question is how much juice is there left in the tank for 2025 and
uh what of 2026 and Beyond one variable that will help decide the answer is the political climate in the US the future looks very bright for crypto there at the moment since Trump's election win in November the Bull Run has been sustained by anticipation of how positive his presidency will be for crypto but some have pointed to inauguration day on January 20th as a major crossroads to be blunt the second Trump Administration may be the best thing to ever happen to crypto we have to give an honorable mention to Arthur Hayes over here because he
has suggested that Trump's economic policies will literally Drive BTC to $1 million although he has not said exactly when that might happen but be that as it may when it comes to fuel for speculative buying it's very hard for real events to beat anticipation and this is a premise of the sell the news and Trump's inauguration could be just such an event it could be a major top and the rest of 2025 could be a slow bleed back into a new bare market then again crypto has more going for than just the US government in
a report published in October Bernstein predicted that BTC will touch 200k in 2025 reasoning that Bitcoin is entering a quote new institutional era H this is a claim that sounds tantalizingly like this time is different but it's also one that's rooted in fact the report outlines how quote 10 Global asset managers now own 60 billion wrapped as regulated exchange Traders funds compared to 12 billion in September 2022 this sustained passive bidding from ETF issuers is a fundamentally new variable among the drivers of btc's returns Bernstein drives this point home further by predicting That Wall Street
institutions will hold more BTC than satoshi's wallet by the end of 2024 and this prediction was made in late October and as of late November this target seems to have been reached satosi wallet or rather the cluster of wallets believed to belong to satosi hold around 1 million BTC and data from the Block confirms that spot Bitcoin ETFs officially hold more than 1 million BTC and that this has been the case since October it's wild how fast this happened just 10 months after their launch BTC spot ETFs are already on track to surpass gold ETFs
in net assets accumulation of BTC in passive funds on Wall Street is direct buying pressure that could Propel BTC higher than most are expecting if of course it persists add to this the new rate cut in cycle and more economic stimulus from China and we have a very bullish outlook for the year ahead 200k might be doable and we can do a little back of the envelope math to show this to be a plausible Target or be it a bit on the high side to be specific if we look at the percentage increase from 1
cycle top to the next it's clear that btc's performance is characterized by diminishing returns however the rate of decline appears to be slowing or at least stabilizing to show you what I mean let's compare the percentage increase from one cycle top to the next we'll start in Q2 of 2011 when BTC reached its first macro top of $29.60 and this was just 2 and A2 years after the Genesis block of January 2009 but these were the very early days of Bitcoin and four-year cycle as we know today had yet to crystallize Bitcoin saw its first
proper bull market top in 2013 in the span of 2 months in Q4 BTC ripped by 10x to set a new all-time high of $1,160 an increase of 3,818 over the previous high of June 2011 4 years later BTC went ballistic again in the 2017 Bull Run and once again the top came in Q4 when BTC reached $972 and this marked an increase of approximately 1600% from the previous all-time high another four years on and BTC reached its next cycle top of $69,000 in Q4 of 2021 and this represented an increase of 350% over the
2017 high so what can we make of this well assuming the trend of diminish returns persists then the top of the current cycle should be a price that is less than 350% higher than the previous high of 69,000 for reference a 350% increase from there would Place BTC at about $240,000 of course the whole dimin return thing implies a figure significantly below this 200,000 is within this range but isn't that too high well arguably not since the trend of diminish returns is well diminishing to show you what I mean let's examine how returns have diminished
from cycle to cycle for Simplicity sake I'll refer to the periods between two cycles as epochs from 2011 to 2013 is the first Epoch 2013 to 2017 is the 2nd 2017 to 2021 is the 3D and 2021 to the present time is the fourth Epoch in the first Epoch the gain from Peak to Peak was 3,818 in the second it was 1, 1600% in the third Epoch the gain was 350% in other words from a 38 times to 16 times to around four times so how diminished will our fourth Epoch gains be compared to the
third Epoch well these historically diminishing returns suggest that it will be somewhere closer to two times compared to the previous cycle top of 69k so somewhere around 140k is that it's possible that inflation has warped this model a bit in case you didn't notice the supply of money basically grew by 40% over the course of the pandemic and this would give us a BTC cycle top price Target that's 40% higher than 140k which happens to be around 200k based on this we think 200k is probably a maximum upper limit for 2025 but what if what
if 2026 comes and BTC keeps on ongoing if that happens then it would be entering technical super cycle territory for those unfamiliar super cycle is not the most technical of terms in this context it means an extended bull market that breaks btc's fouryear cycle of expansion and contraction and just keeps expanding this sounds amazing but it's the kind of a exuberant prediction that usually proves to be a top signal and this was the case back in 2021 when the super cycle idea was popularized by a certain crypto hedge fund manager it was everyone's genius season
back then too and the markets became so euphoric that people started believing that the good times would never end of course they did end big time and that guy's chronically overleveraged hedge fund collapsed a year later as the bare Market reared its ugly head so we are not inclined to believe a super cycle just yet and we do expect a macro top in 2025 the top has come in Q4 several times before and many expect 2025 to be no different but we think there is a chance that it could indeed come a bit sooner perhaps
in mid Q2 whatever happens it's best to be prepared for every outcome you should periodically ask yourself if your cycle top Target for BTC makes sense as market and macro conditions develop and in terms of being prepared we can't overstate the value of dollar cost average in or DC in this is one of the first strategies that every new investor should learn and it involves slowly scaling into your Investments rather than buying everything in one go and this Hedges against volatility and typically reduces the cost basis of your investment but doing the same thing in
Reverse is highly underrated taking profits in tranches at lower medium and higher price targets means you are the person selling on the way up instead of waiting for a single top Target that uh may never come this is your best insurance policy against round tripping those profits and this is why we would spend less time trying to predict the exact cycle top and more time plotting multiple levels at which we would take partial profits because ultimately this is all that matters if you are trying to make money in crypto right now where the top will
be is an interesting question but for your finances it's nowhere near as important as the question of when you are going to sell your bags so where do you think we are going to top out somewhere between 100K and 200k seems like the most sensible answer to us but uh maybe we're not bullish enough or maybe the market is pulling a sick joke on us all and 99k was the cycle top perish the thought we'd love to hear from you though so let us know your cycle top predictions in in the comments below and of
course please do leave your reasoning as well if you enjoyed this video be sure to leave us a thumbs up and make sure you subscribe to the channel and have your bell notifications turned on as well so that you don't miss our next upload as always thank you very much for watching and I'll see you in the next one this is Nick signing off [Music]
