yeah warning this video and all other videos on this channel for entertainment purposes only the content of this video and all other videos on this channel opinions of the Creator only and do not constitute legal trading investment or financial advice of any kind investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money do not invest in capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all all right hello and welcome to camel Finance I'm your boy camel and this is the weekend's Deep dive if you're new here on the weekend we like to come back and re-examine the base case hypothesis of the channel check to see if it's still going roughly speaking according to plan and then of course we use that Bas case hypothesis to ensure I can continue to have confidence in my positioning and in my posturing at the end as always I will show you my positions and where I am looking to continue to add more more positions going forward so as ever we're going to run through this thing from the top the base case for the stock market was pretty simple at the lows I thought we were way too bearish we'd have a blowoff top to alltime highs and then we would have a big Global bare Market recession and this bare market and recession would have a deflationary component to it for the third time in the US's history it's also an idea that once we've seen the high for this current ball Market it will likely Remain the high as we experienced one of these L decades and possibly even have a stagflationary component just as we've observed when we look left here here here and here as the oscillator down the bottom resets itself fast forward to today and you can see that we have an argument to be made that we have completed a blowoff top to three angles and whilst they can't yet call Tops it wouldn't take much to see me do so all we would really need to do is trade sideways into here and then lose this second angle and that would be me being taken out of the market by my system that would be me calling this the top of course the inverse is true as well right if we can somehow push up from here or if instead we can move our way to the second angle and then hold it as support then I have no true top signal I can't possibly call Tops and I would continue to have to remain long biased expecting that this right here that I've got as the third angle was actually a temporary third angle and thus we would be looking to set another third and final blowoff top angle likely even steeper based on the current market structure and as always it would be again rinse and repeat we'd be looking to capture the trend sell the third angle violation and call Tops once we got a second angle violation so for now I consider all of this in here to be no man's land and if we start to push off like I said we'll set a third and final angle and we'll use the same technique that we used to capture this and this by just readjusting these angles here and here and here and we'll do the whole thing from the right hand side so I would say so far so good for the stock market for Bitcoin this Remains the one component that didn't quite play ball for me I was expecting this cycle to left translate I did correctly call the alltime high before the Haring but we of course spent way longer consolidating in here than I was originally anticipating so like any analyst should do I pivoted as new data presented itself and we moved towards expecting the top to come later in the cycle so originally I was calling for this needless to say we simply didn't break out of this down sloping resistance line until much later in life and thus I was forced to accept that something more akin to this is going on we did manage to catch this weekly cycle low though and show that on the channel and so now the big question remains is the q1 top on the table right have we already seen the top is this working on some kind of distribution type pattern or does this bull market have legs for Bitcoin are we going to continue to see the weekly cycle lows yield roughly speaking 100% upside moves as they are found now it's also of note here that we just so happen to be a couple of weeks at the most away from this current daily cycle low telling me that if this thing holds it's only reasonable to expect at least based on the prior weekly Cycles a doubling in price roughly speaking from wherever that low forms I've also said multiple times of late that once this low is in I will draw a line underneath it and use that for me as bull market inv validation for now though in the short term I'm largely speaking happy with the performance we've managed to capture most of the move in front of everyone and now we're simply waiting for a weekly cycle load to form where we will get back in from the trading position we're still holding the spot allocation from the lows and we are looking to dump some of that and take some profit if we can get up here out of this upcoming weekly cycle low so so far managing to stay on the right side of the trade for both the stock market and for Bitcoin as I said right at the start of the video part of this hypothesis is that if we're going to get this breakdown the global bare Market in recession we will indeed have a deflationary component to this and largely speaking this is because anything you do to the M2 rate of change tends to show up in the inflation data albeit with a lag we've got an updated chart here thanks to e and you can see anything you do to the M2 rate of change again shows up in the CPI albeit with a lag so we are currently still hypothesizing we are yet to see this part of the M2 rated change show up in the CPI data this point is a very contentious point in markets a lot of Market participants believe that this is much more likely and that we're going to see the resumption of inflation but when we look at the true inflation data okay in the last couple of weeks just over two weeks we saw the true inflation drop off by a full percentage Point almost and so I continue to make the case that all this was up here this rally was nothing more than a counter Trend wobble in the primary downtrend and I believe that what we're seeing at the hard right Edge now is the resumption of disinflation now we could use a simple trend line here to let us start to know where things could be going wrong okay a simple trend line break in the CPI print if we can get above here okay might tell us to look for one higher up but so long as okay we continue to set lower highs and lower lows then this thing is of course in a downtrend still and especially if we can get some kind of rejection here and continue down then of course the trend will be down and there'll be no possible way to argue that so by the time we come back and do next week's Deep dive we should have a bit more data of course and we'll be able to see whether or not this downtrend is for Real the next component of course is if we're going to have a global bare Market in recession we would of course expect to see labor market deterioration the labor market has been very very challenging to navigate simply because they continuously Revis the data over and over again there's lots of conflicting data over the last couple of weeks we saw that we had around 4% unemployment coming in slightly below the estimated in the prior readout which had investors jumping up and down and screaming everything is a okay we also had the Sam recession rule coming off slightly however I still make the case that this thing is still making higher highs and higher lows at the hard right Edge and until we Buck a trend then to me it looks suspiciously like a leadin phase before acceleration a leadin phase before acceleration as we see in all prior instances leading into a recession so I don't think we can breathe a s of relief just yet I think first of all we need to make a lower low here but undeniably for now at least over the last few prints this thing is turning down and is below the 0. 5 threshold required to indicate a recession but this jobs data continues to be challenging to navigate look at continued claims okay not really agreeing with the 4% unemployment rate it's the same story when we look at temporary health services okay again showing a very very recessionary look just like we saw in the c19 era just like we saw in the GFC just like we saw in the do bubble so this of course contradicts what we're seeing in the unemployment rate the story Remains the Same for the hiring rate when we look at the nbe Shaded recession areas in Gray okay again at the hard right Edge looking again like a recessionary tendency here not really agreeing with the 4. 0% historically low unemployment level that you're hearing investors parrot and as I was showing last week we continue to see things like non-farm payrolls experience massive revisions this is the second biggest negative payroll revision on record the jobs numbers were also revised down by around 600k between January and December of last year and we saw average weekly hours of all employees again fall off a cliff and start to show recessionary looks just like in the c19 era and just like in the GFC and as of late this week we also saw that the job market has effectively lost 163,000 private sector jobs in Q2 of 2024 this is a huge contrast to the monthly non-farm payrolls 411,000 additions so in other words nonfarm payroll have been overstated by just under 600k jobs in Q2 of 2024 this is continuing to be an incredibly challenging environment to navigate at face value a lot of this data looks just fine but as soon as we start to scratch a little bit below the surface everything again continues to look worse and worse it's a very very challenging data set to navigate the data that is released 1 month is revised quietly the next month this to me makes me feel a little bit uneasy and has been for quite a while now actually quite few months I've been feeling a little bit uneasy especially since there's an awful lot of parting of narrative going on and one of those narratives is that 4.
1% or 4. 0% is historically low but we only have to look back at prior recessions to see that five out of 12 of them started at 4. 1% unemployment rate or less and at least we forget the one from the ' 50s which started at just 2.
6% so then the question becomes is 4. 1% or 4.
