as the crypto Market keeps pumping more and more people are asking when exactly will it top and how will we know when it's time to sell well there are many indicators we can use that have a strong track record of predicting crypto Market tops and that's why today we're going to take a look at some of these indicators explain how they work reveal when they suggest the crypto Market could top and how you can use them to maximize your returns my name is Nick and if you hold crypto this is a video you cannot afford
to miss before we get started I need to note that nothing in this video is financial advice it's educational content intended to inform you about a few crypto market indicators if you happen to be looking for Content that's specific to crypto trading check out the coin Bureau trading Channel using the link down below with that said the first indicator to watch is arguably the most important and that's levels of liquidity you can think of liquidity as being the amount of money in the economy and the markets the more liquidity there is the more that the
economy grows and the more that the markets rally in other words most of the price action we see in assets like stocks crypto and even real estate are fundamentally just a reflection of the money supply growing or shrinking in fact if you look at the price of most assets when adjusted for money supply high you'll notice that most haven't even gone up in price as a fun fact the only two assets that have truly beat inflation are basically assets related to technology and finance crypto is a combination of technology and finance hence why it should
come as no surprise that cryptos are the top performing Assets in recent years specifically Bitcoin the more you know now this begs the question of how to measure Global liquidity and as you can imagine measuring the amount of all the money in the economy and the markets is not that easy particularly on a global scale thankfully there are a many free indicators that attempt to accurately calculate Global money supply growth one of these is the global liquidity indicator provided by Bitcoin magazine Pro as you can see it's almost perfectly correlated to bitcoin's price and of
course the crypto Market follows Bitcoin you'll notice that there was a huge drop in liquidity in late November 2022 and it's been rising ever since there were just four caveats the first is that the free version of the global liquidity indicator provides data with a 6month lag what it's worth looking at the M2 indicator provided by the Federal Reserve is enough to give you a sense of global liquidity given that the dollar is of course the world's Reserve currency the second caveat ties into the first and that's that liquidity does not have an immediate effect
on prices this makes sense given that the money which enters the economy or the markets doesn't immediately go into crypto it takes time for it to flow to that corner of the pool so to speak and this relates to the third caveat and that's that liquidity isn't everything when it comes to predicting crypto prices this is according to macro analyst Michael Howell who is the top expert on global liquidity Michael's research suggests that liquidity only accounts for around 40% of bitcoin's price action the fourth and most important caveat is that these liquidity measures cannot predict
future liquidity increases or liquidity drains for example uh the Chinese Central Bank is expected to stimulate the economy soon nobody knows how big the stimulus will be or if it indeed will come at all if it's big it will obviously be very bullish but if it doesn't come then it will be bearish and again this is just one of the many examples of liquidity events that's why liquidity should be one of the many indicators you check when assessing whether the top is in for the crypto Market if Global liquidity is high and Rising then that's
just one of the many signs that suggests the market top is close and I'll remind you that Global liquidity is high and Rising by the way if you enjoying this video so far why don't you smash that like button to let us know and don't forget to subscribe and ping the notification Bell as well to make absolutely sure you don't miss the next one now the second indicator to watch is actually two and that's the pi cycle top and the bull market support band as you might have guessed these are technical analysis indicators now before
you roll your eyes you should know that there's some science to TA it essentially tracks human fear and greed the reason why technical anal is patterns work is because emotions of fear and greed follow predictable patterns for instance prices go up everyone gets greedy and they buy then prices go down and a portion of the people who bought get fearful and they sell and if prices go up again quickly then everyone who sold realizes damn that was a mistake and they buy back even more the result is a bull flag pattern in turn indicators such
as the pi cycle top and the bull market support band look at the average price at which an asset traded during a period of time in this case Bitcoin the rationale there is that if BTC historically traded a lot around a price like say 90k then chances are that this is where people will start buying if prices are crashing or where people will start selling if prices are below that level and start rallying up to it in the case of the pi cycle top indicator it uses the average price of BTC over the the last
111 days and the average BTC price over the last 350 days time 2 it goes without saying that the exact specifics here are outside the scope of this video all you need to know is that these are averages being used as you can see the P Cycle top is incredibly accurate when it comes to predicting crypto Market tops if you look closely you'll notice that the two moving averages crossed or overlapped the fact that they're nowhere close to Crossing or overlapping suggests there's still a lot more room to run and FY you can also find
the pi cycle toop indicator on the Bitcoin magazine Pro website now when it comes to the bull market support band it uses the average BTC price over the last 20 weeks and the average BTC price over the last 21 weeks again the exact specifics here are outside the scope of this video all you need to know for this indicator is that it provides more more of a longer term view because it focuses on the weekly time frame instead of the daily time frame as you can see the bull market support band has also been accurate
in predicting past crypto Market tops if you look closely you'll notice that there's a red line and a green line the red line is the 21 we moving average and the green line is the 20 we moving average when the red line crosses the green line from below it's a sign the top could be in and as with the pi cycle top indicator we're nowhere close to that yet and if you're wondering where you can find the bull market support band indicator the answer is trading view just find the Bitcoin chart on trading view open
the full chart black button on the top right if you're going to the page via Google click on the indicators tab at the top search for bull market support band select the first option and voila you now have a clearer view of bitcoin's price action the bull market support band is additional evidence to the idea that the crypto Market is nowhere close to hitting the cycle top but just like liquidity technical indicators alone aren't going to tell you exactly when the market will top and in contrast to liquidity there's no guarantee that these technical indicators
will predict the next cycle top with the same accuracy they did in the past this calls for additional indicators before we get to that though you should know that the coin Bureau deals page has trading fee discounts of up to 70% and sign up bonuses of up to $100,000 on the best crypto exchanges so if ta is your cup of tea and you're itching to trade the pi cycle top or the bull market sport band take advantage of those limited time deals to maximize your profits using the link in the description now the third indicator
to watch is actually three hodle waves net unrealized profit or loss AKA nupal and the mvrv Z score if these sound alien to you then that's probably because you're not familiar with onchain indicators as the term suggests onchain indicators look at well stuff that's happening on chain and note that all these indicators can be found on the glass node website starting with the hoddle waves these effectively show us how long it's been since BTC has been moved by people who've been holding it for a particular period of time the bigger the hoddle waves the more
that the longer term hold BTC Supply is moving logically if lots of BTC that's been held for a long period of time is moving this suggests that lots of people are taking profits and this tends to correlate to local tops similarly the Nole shows us just how much BTC holders are sitting on unrealized profits versus losses obviously when the indicator is in the red this suggests that lots of BTC holders are sitting on unrealized losses and this tends to happen around the lows conversely when the indicator is in the green this suggests that lots of
BTC holders are sitting on unrealized profits and this tends to happen around the tops if you were looking at both indicators you'll notice that both seem to be flashing bullish but don't seem to be in cycle toop territory yet and this is even more clearly seen on the mvrv Z score if this indicator sounds familiar chances are it's because you saw it on our video about Bitcoin liquidity from a few months ago and if you didn't then you know where you can go to watch that good stuff for those who didn't see that video though
the mvrv Z score is less complicated than it sounds and is easy to understand when broken down first we have the market value uh the mvy this is just bitcoin's current market cap which is calculated by multiplying the number of BTC in circulation times its current price second we have the realized value the RV uh this takes the average value of all the BTC that's ever been moved and multiplies it by btc's circulating Supply this makes realized value kind of like gay market cap but it's the market cap of BTC based on the price it
was purchased at and hence the term realized value third we have the Zed score which looks at how much btc's price has deviated from its realized value in Practical terms this gives us a different view of how many BT holders are in profit and this makes the mvrv Z score like a more refined version of the hodle waves and the newo but it's technically different anyways as you can see the mvrv Z score is nowhere close to hitting levels that have historically corresponded to crypto Market tops at least for Bitcoin again the rest of the
crypto Market follows BTC so if you get BTC right chances are you'll get most of the crypto market right as well the catch with these onchain indicators though is that they don't seem to have a good track record of predicting crypto Market tops that happen because of Leverage such as the November 2021 cycle top this means that they may accurately predict the initial BTC top but it's possible that BTC could still go higher after that along with most altcoins once again this calls for additional indicators to be sure now our fourth indicator is is actually
a series of indicators and that's stock market indices as well as stocks that are highly correlated to the crypto market and this is where things get interesting for starters the S&P 500 the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 all have a history of top in around the same time as the crypto Market this makes sense given that most stocks are ultimately driven by the same factors as crypto namely liquidity when you recall that crypto is at its core a combination of technology and finance it's no surprise that crypto's correlation to Tech heavy indices like the NASDAQ
tend to be the highest what is surprising though is that this story seems to change depending on whether you're looking at Bitcoin or altcoins Bitcoin seems to be more highly correlated to stock market indices with larger stocks such as the S&P 500 whereas altcoins seem to be more highly correlated to stock market indices with smaller stocks such as the Russell 2000 this makes sense when you consider that Bitcoin is the most mature of all cryptocurrencies it's been around the longest it's arguably the easiest for investors to understand digital gold it's the most liquid and it's
the most accessible thanks to the spot Bitcoin ETFs and the like this combination makes BTC more appealing to larger investors by contrast most small cap stocks are less established and harder to understand stand more easily affected by macro factors like interest rates less liquid less established but also more volatile just like most altcoins and this makes small cap stocks and altcoins more appealing to smaller investors namely retail investors which is likely the cause of this correlation what makes things interesting is that it's possible keyword possible that we could see a decoupling between large cap stocks
and small cap stocks and crypto in including Bitcoin this is simply because of the Trump administration's plans to implement tariffs which could hurt the profits of large companies and reduce the regulations and resore which should boost the profits of small companies at the same time Trump's agenda is packed with Pro crypto plans the most notable of which is the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve these will not only attract lots of attention and investment to crypto but also make it much easier for large pools of capital to to get access to things like altcoins via ETFs and the
like the Practical effect of this is that it could be that crypto decouples from major stocks if this happens then chances are that it will become the narrative that triggers the rally to the cycle tops for those who don't know uh the narrative that crypto could someday decouple from other assets is one that many crypto investers have dreamed of because it goes hand inhand with the idea that crypto will enter a super cycle as a result that it will go up only forever or something like that make no mistake this decoupling would likely be temporary
assuming it happens at all if it does then I'll reiterate that it will likely be an indicator that the cycle top is close if it doesn't happen though and crypto continues to be highly correlated to Major stocks then it's safe to say that we will need to watch the major indices as well as specific stocks closely to get a sense of if the crypto Market top could be in in retrospect uh the Catalyst for the late 2021 cycle top appears to have been Elon Musk announcing that he was going to sell Tesla shares after he
put it up for a vote this kind of makes sense given that Elon was very involved in crypto in the last cycle and if you haven't been noticing he's been quite involved in this cycle too what's fascinating is that the most bullish phase of the 2021 Crypt bull market seems to have been kicked off by micro strategy hitting a parabolic all-time high in early 2021 in case you missed the news micro strategy recently hit another all-time high just like that foreshadowing the start of the most bullish phase yet as for altcoins they appear to be
very highly correlated to the Russell 2000 now for those unfamiliar there's an indicator called others which is the combined market cap of all the altcoins outside of the top 10 it is the mirror image of the Russell 2000 both suggest that El season hasn't even started yet but that it could start in the coming weeks and last for many months so consistent with Trump's policies this brings me to the fifth and final indicator and that's sentiment if you think about it cycle Toops in crypto happen when the fear of missing out reaches its apex when
friends and family members who know nothing about crypto are asking you for advice or you're seeing crypto everywhere you go there are many ways to measure sentiment in crypto but practically all of them are useless of the few that are useful Google search Trends is the easiest to use all you need to do is check the search trends for your favorite altcoin over the last year and if it starting to go parabolic chances are the top is coming another useful indicator is to see what the view counts and subscriber counts are looking like on your
favorite crypto YouTube channels there are many websites you can use to check this one of which is vid IQ the problem is that most of those don't track long-term data that's why it's best to keep track of these channels manually uh just check the channel or check the into the cryptoverse platform made by our friend Benjamin Cowen it keeps track of YouTube views across major crypto YouTube channels uh Ben Al share screenshots of this on X as well as you can see the number of views on major crypto YouTube channels is still nowhere close to
where it was in 2021 not sure who needs to hear it but the 2025 crypto bull market will probably be bigger than the 2021 Crypt bull market the US president is literally launching his own defi protocol anyhow it seems that sentiment analysis is the most helpful in identifying the cycle tops for Al coins especially categories of altcoins such as gamey defy etc etc if altcoins in these niches are going parabolic because some bullish Catalyst like I don't know GTA 6 introducing crypto features then chances are it's the top in case that didn't make it clear
enough the key thing to look out for is catalysts the trigger that causes the fomo in its apex and this could be a major upgrade a significant partnership or just General hype around that particular narrative if this catalyst is accompanied by things like your friends and family asking you about these very particular cryptos there's a very high chance that the crypto cycle top is in the elephant in the room in this regard is the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve which could potentially Mark the cycle top for BTC when it's approved some would argue that this is something
that would trigger the start of the super cycle with countries around the world copying the USA and accumulating BTC from our perspective these tend to be the exact kinds of catalysts that happen around the cycle tops precisely because they make you feel like you never want to sell and it's going to keep going up only forever the approval of the Bitcoin Futures ETFs in late 2021 was one example of this uh the approval of the CME Futures in late 2017 was another both happened within weeks of BTC and crypto hitting their cycle tops given that
the spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved a year ago and that was evidently not the cycle top this means there must be another bigger Catalyst that causes peak fomo in the crypto Market the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve or something along those lines seems like the most likely candidate for the time being you'll know it's time to sell when you're in so much profit that you're feeling so bullish and you're convinced that it will just keep going higher and you also notice that almost everyone feels the same way as far as we can tell though not many people
feel that way yet good the longer we feel fud the higher we will go now if you found that video useful why don't you check out our latest one right over here and are you subscribed to the channel yet no well you can do that right over here and of course if trading is your thing then you can subscribe to the coin Bureau trading Channel that's right over here that's me for now see you next time [Music]
