ETH / BTC: Is the Bottom In?

hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today we're going to talk about ethereum more specifically we're going to be discussing the eth Bitcoin valuation and talking about the evidence for the Bing being in and the evidence for it not being in if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on intothe cryptoverse premium at intothe cryptoverse decom let's go ahead and jump in so to begin with I must remind people as always that there is a fundamental

difference between ethusd and eth Bitcoin right eth Bitcoin is the valuation of eth against Bitcoin right therefore it you know eth Bitcoin going up or eth Bitcoin going down doesn't necessarily tell you the direction of ethusd right it doesn't in fact in 2019 when eth Bitcoin bottomed ethusd still had not yet bottomed in that year so it's important to remember that there's a Nuance behind it now what I have found is that new people to the cryptoverse tend to think in terms of the USD valuation because that's what they that's what they always value things

in the longer you're in in the cryptoverse the more likely you are to value your portfolio in Satoshi because that's what actually matters right do you value your portfolio against the US dollar which the purchasing power is going ASM totically zero over a long period of time or do you value it against Bitcoin an asset that has proven itself throughout the Cycles to generally head higher with time of course there are there are some pretty brutal bare markets so because of that it makes more sense in my view to value eth on its Bitcoin pair

and for me the low for eth Bitcoin for the cycle was always going to be between 003 to 004 always right I've said that for years 03 to 04 and of course most you know most of um I think most people had no idea that it could actually go that low and and here it is where it feels like even a rallied to 039 is is seen as bullish when just about 6 months ago it was almost inconceivable for people to think about eth Bitcoin going below 004 so there is a case to be made

that the low for eth Bitcoin is either in or very very close to being in both in terms of valuation and in terms of time I would say that after 3 years we finally have at least a little bit of evidence to suggest the bottom might actually be in this is the first time that I've looked at the chart and thought maybe it is actually in and it's been a really frustrating weight because for so long I've been reluctant to say that it could be in on every single one of these lower highs and on

every single one of these lower highs you know it was dealing with people sort of laughing and and saying there's no way it could possibly go lower but I will say it is possible that eth Bitcoin has bottomed and and what I want to do is I want to talk about what is the evidence to suggest the bottom could be in and what's the evidence that would say let's hold off before we make any you know overly bold proclamations all right now the first thing is this pattern right I mean this this pattern is is

pretty telling where you sort of you get your your double tops where the second top is a little bit lower you set a low in between those two tops that eventually access support for a while and then eventually eth Bitcoin breaks down in 2016 you can see that eth Bitcoin fell about 50 something per. after it broke below the range low in 2019 it fell about yeah 30% after I broke the range low this cycle it's already fallen about 30% and so that's at least some evidence to make me believe that if the low's not

in it's probably getting pretty close right and again I I can't say exactly where the bottom is but I will say this the current low of 03465 is good enough for me right it's good enough for me it's between 0.3 to 0.4 Bitcoin dominance did go to 60% so who would I be to say that it can't you know that it can't have bottomed I mean it it would fit in with the general theories that I've been presenting right 03 to 04 check Bitcoin dominance check break below the range low check the other thing that

is important to point out and is why I'm I'm starting to think that there's at least a chance is in 2016 and in 2019 after eth Bitcoin got above its 50-day moving average after it durably broke down the bottom was in fact in right so it durably broke down right here after it durably broke down once it was back above the 50-day moving and and when I say durably I mean for more than just a few days right because the these are just sort of fake breakdowns once it durably broke down you can see that

when the 50-day SMA was crossed right once the once eth Bitcoin crossed the the 50-day SMA on a daily close the bottom was in right it didn't look back it rallied it Consolidated and then it went up so that's one point that's one that's 2016 if you look at 2019 you'll see something very similar right where after it durably broke down once it got a daily close above the 50-day moving average the bottom was in fact in now it did come back down later to form a higher low but the actual bottom was already in

we didn't know it at the time right we had this rally back up to the to the prior support level we got rejected came all the way back down and we more or less formed a double bottom right where it was just a slightly higher low but for all intensive purposes it was just a double bottom you know this was at 0016 this was at 0169 I mean it was basically the same valuation just a slight a slight difference so that that meant the bottom was in and so I I've said for a number of

months now that whenever it gets back above the 50-day SMA after durably breaking down then the bottom could be in right it doesn't have to be but the odds start to go up if you think back after the First Rate cut there was a rally by eth Bitcoin up to the 50-day moving average and there was a wick above it but it ended up closing below it this time we at least got a close above the 50-day moving average now to be completely honest I'd like to see more than one right I'd like to just

see another daily close to help really solidify these these views it could still just simply be a fake out right the rally to the 50-day SMA back over here was right after the First Rate cut and this rally here is right after the second rate cut so there does exist a scenario where e Bitcoin doesn't hold the 50-day and it just ends up being a a one- day fake out that we look back on and we're like well it was just a fake out just like it was after the First Rate cut but I have

to take the data as it comes in and you know after in 2016 and 2019 when eth Bitcoin cross the 50-day SMA on a week on a daily close the bottom was in fact in okay so that's more evidence to suggest that it is possible some more evidence to suggest that the bottom could theoretically be in would be that if you were to look at at rate Cuts we know that in 2019 eth Bitcoin bottom about five weeks after the First Rate cut right the First Rate cut was in Late July and then eth Bitcoin

bottomed in early September right around the time of the second rate cut same thing right the First Rate cut was in September and about five weeks later eth Bitcoin hit 03465 right around the time at the second rate cut so there's a chance that it's just playing out in a very similar structure right where you you start to get these rate cuts and then eth Bitcoin bottoms right we're getting rate cuts and then maybe e Bitcoin bottoms out but that's just one more thing right that that's more evidence to suggest that it it could be

in but there's still no way to know for sure there is evidence to suggest that it could still go lower and my argument all along has been that if eth Bitcoin is going to go lower it's probably going to do so before 202 that would be my best guess at this point with the information that I have right if it's going to go below the current low it'll do so before the end of the year and the reason I say that is because historically in the year that eth Bitcoin breaks down it forms the bottom

structure and starts moving back up in December of that year right this was December of 2019 this was December of of 20 2016 so if it's going to go low I think it'll do so before the end of the year the one thing to consider that makes me you know that keeps me from just saying it with more confidence right now I'm I'm probably like say 6040 right I'm more so leaning towards it being in than not especially because dominance has hit 60 but I also know there are a couple of things that that could

come back to to to sort of question the idea of whether the bottom is in and whether the bottom is in or not there's likely going to be a period at some point in the future where we're not going to know right it's going to go back down from a certain level and we're going to wonder was that actually the bottom or not and so one of the things that I I go back to is that you know last cycle eth Bitcoin actually bottomed when quantitative tightening ended right that's when the bottom actually occurred almost

to the T I mean basically to the to the to the week right I mean QT ended eth Bitcoin bottomed and QT hasn't actually ended yet quantitative tightening hasn't actually ended and so because quantitative tightening is going to likely continue for at least a little while there's a chance that eth Bitcoin could go lower so you know it's important to remember that while there's some evidence to suggest that it could be in there's also some that would push back againsta that idea you're probably wondering well how is this useful to you my argu as it

relates to eth bitcoin is that for for me and I I could be wrong but for me 03465 is good enough right I don't I don't need to you know to hold out for longer to see if it goes lower I think these are fairly attractive valuations for eth Bitcoin now where I've gotten myself into a lot of trouble with people are my views on ethusd right and I've talked a lot about eth eventually coming home on its USD pair I will say this right first of all I don't get everything right I certainly don't

second of all in the video where I said eth could come home in December I also said that with eth Bitcoin at you know 035 it makes sense to start hedging that view and I have already actively started hedging against that view right and so there's part of me that wants to see eth go home there's another part of me that's actively hedging against that view so yes the Twitter trolls will say what they want to say like they normally do but the reality is as most of them spent the last three years calling the

bottom on E Bitcoin and they were wrong every step of the way and you know of course now they're they're sort of laughing at the ethereum going home Theory but the reality is is they're always going to be there right there's always going to be trolls there they're going to have an about something and if you check their history uh they basically just say the same thing over and over again so I would say you know it's important to remember that these things take time to play out and it's also important to remember that I

myself ackowledge that I get things wrong right and and it could be that I'm wrong about eth USD going home and and if you're new to the channel the idea about eth USD going home is essentially that every year that eth Bitcoin coin has broken down ethusd went to the lower logarithmic aggression trend line in December of that year that is the argument right that you know when it breaks down ethusd continues to drop so the first thing I would say is there there does exist a scenario where eth Bitcoin has bottomed right and then

eth USD still goes down in December and then I imagine if that were to happen people would get upset because they'll be like well you know what about eth Bitcoin bottoming but again eth Bitcoin is not the same as ethusd right it's not if eth Bitcoin has bottomed which we don't know for sure but if it has there still is a risk that ethusd drops again in December even if it's not the most likely scenario the one thing that you know I think it's important to come to terms with is the only way and I'll

do another video on this you know s a dedicated video on it but the only way for eth to go home is for the broader Market to sell off right there there's not a a compelling you know there's not a compelling case to be made that ethusd drops back below $2,000 and bitcoin's not also dropping and the reason why that's a hard you know you know sort of a hard pill to swallow is because in order for that to happen Bitcoin would have to drop that wasn't true earlier this year right earlier this year Bitcoin

was mostly just going sideways since March while eth was dropping right so you could have argued that had Bitcoin just continued in that path eventually eth would have gone down here because Bitcoin was just absorbing that liquidity from eth but now it seems like we've sort of slowly started to enter a new phase of the cycle where eth Bitcoin could start to turn things around especially in 2025 so the sobering reality for ethusd is that the only way it goes home is if Bitcoin drops right and so that's the reason why you know having some

eth in a portfolio I think can make some sense is because it does give you exposure to the upside but if if if eth does go home there's a good chance that Bitcoin would have also experienced a similar drop so by having it in Bitcoin it's not like you would have even necessarily been better off at that point maybe slightly if if eth Bitcoin does go a slightly lower low in December but I don't think it would be that much of a difference at this point so for the last three years I've just said stay

Bitcoin heavy because Bitcoin dominance is going to 60% going into 2025 right I mean I the closer you get I think it it really starts make sense to hedge and so I think that is the sort of the the appropriate stance is to hedge a little bit here and there with some eth because there's no guarantee that eth USD does go home and I'll tell you this you know if you have a multi-year view about something about eth Bitcoin going to 03 to 04 and Bitcoin dominance going to 60% I cannot you know with a

clear conscience watch 03 to 04 come and go and not do a thing about it right I can't just say oh well I was right but I didn't actually make any adjustments to my portfolio so it was Bitcoin heavy until 60% dominance right it wasn't Bitcoin heavy until 60% and then do nothing right it was Bitcoin heavy until 60% we hit 60% so I think it makes sense to start expanding The View there is a risk with that and I've talked about this before there there there's a risk and I don't really think a lot

of people are considering it and and not even saying that they should be considering it because the reality right the reality is is that for Bitcoin to go down right for for Bitcoin to really go down at this point it would have to fade all sorts of seasonality right I mean year-to dat Roi and there does exist a scenario where it just does it in 2025 and not 2024 um but you know year-to-date seasonality in in having years Bitcoin normally goes up and I've said for months that it makes sense to defer to the cyclical

view until proven otherwise and it's still going well if you look at the ROI from the low for Bitcoin it is still generally tracking the prior cycles and in fact it just put on a new alltime high uh yesterday so so far the cycal view has been correct so to speculate that eth could theoretically go home would this year would imply that Bitcoin experiences a correction but again is that something you really want to root for if it happens it happens and the market does occasionally drop a lot right I mean it's not like Bitcoin

is immune to some you know stomach turning drops where you feel like everything's never going to go back up again but I just want people to understand that I can have multi you know multiple views right eth Bitcoin and eth USD I can start hedging by getting some eth while also retaining the idea that there is a chance even if it's not necessarily the most likely at this point there's a chance that ethusd still drops in December and I don't know what the catalst would be I don't the reality is you know W with the

momentum behind Bitcoin and everything you know it it it seems somewhat foolish to sort of you know hammer down that it has to happen right I I'd rather just say eth Bitcoin has reached the bottoming range and therefore it makes sense to have some e the same thing with Bitcoin right you know when I when I first made my portfolio Bitcoin heavy in early 2022 I had to live with some downside for a while right but then eventually it went back up and I bought Bitcoin in late 2022 I didn't buy eth because I just

thought eth Bitcoin was going to bleed and I stand by that I don't apologize for that view I think some people think well you know you missed out on eth at 1,000 bucks guys Bitcoin outperformed eth 2x since the beginning of 2022 right and even since the merge right it's outperformed eth 2x I didn't miss out on anything Bitcoin heavy was the way to go right now if you value your portfolio in US Dollars you might not agree but if you value it in satoshi's it makes complete sense so in this case in this case

I just wanted to do that that you know that that segue to ethusd because I know some people wanted know about it right is eth coming home and the the the reality is I can't promise you anything about it right I I can say that it has followed the pattern so far it is starting to deviate somewhat from that view right I wasn't expecting eth to get this big of a move in November but it could still happen but it's not something that's worthwhile to you know completely sit out and say Well it has to

happen because if you value your portfolio in SATs I would say eth Bitcoin is already close enough if you value it in US Dollars you could still say it it you know it's it's close enough as well I just don't want everyone thinking that it it's something that has to happen you know I've presented the theory many times as to why I think it could happen but I don't want you to think that it has to happen and I want you to also know that I'm already actively hedging against that view because because eth Bitcoin

Co I think is pretty close to a bottom if the bottom is not already in the worst case scenario for eth Bitcoin as I've said in my opinion is 003 I don't really think it's going to go that low but there does exist a world where it happens right if if it truly does just bleed until quantitative tightening is over then there is a chance that it just does that I would argue there there's a chance that it you know it gets a bounce and then maybe double bottoms around the time that QT is over

or maybe it's a slightly lower low maybe it's a slightly higher low but that's where I am right now I just know that when the bottom is in usually for eth Bitcoin like when it's in after it durably breaks down you normally get a a fairly explosive move where ethusd gets a really big bouns it did the exact same thing in 2019 right if you look at at 2019 eth Bitcoin bottomed the week of September 2nd and this is what happened the week of September 2nd right ethusd began a rally of about 33% okay now

if you compare that to today and and how far eth has gone up um just since this most recent low by eth Bitcoin it's already up 20% right I mean from the actual low over here it's up more than that but we're not measuring it from there right I'm just measuring it from when e Bitcoin potentially bottomed right it's up 26 27% so you would generally expect that whenever the bottom occurs it would be a fairly explosive rally for eth Bitcoin and for ethusd if eth Bitcoin can stay above its 50-day moving average then the

next area of resistance will be the bull market support ban which is all the way up at around 042 to 0043 so that will be you know a a interesting level to see if eth Bitcoin can actually get through it if you look at 2016 you can see that it it sort of rallied up for a little bit and then it it kind of paused for a few weeks and then it went up later on in in 2017 if you look at 2019 you can see that it when it finally bottomed it rallied up to

the bull market support band but then it ultimately just got rejected and came back down double bottomed and then went up so my argument is just simply that there's some the the evidence is starting to mount that the low is either in or close to being in there's no such thing as a sure thing in the market there there is a reality where we just sort of check back in here in a month and it's just simply lower than it is today right it maybe it's at 032 or something the one thing I would say

beyond the QT argument the one main thing that makes me think that there is still a chance that it could go lower and it's not like a a sure thing and you know not that it ever is but is the fact that you know Bitcoin dominance normally goes up in Q4 of the having year right I mean it normally does but this year Bitcoin dominance has done all sorts of things that it doesn't normally do if you look at Bitcoin dominance excluding stables in 2024 it's mostly just gone up all year this is a pretty

big drop here after dominance hit 60% which is what I said was likely the top or at least the best guess of a top it could overshoot it in December but that was my best guess but if you look at 2020 and 2016 you can see that dominance normally goes up the last month of the year right and there there can be a drop around the November time frame as you can see back over here there was a drop um but dominance can it normally goes up at the end of the having year and so

when you look at at at like all Bitcoin pairs for instance um you know if you were to look at at total 3 minus usdt divided by Bitcoin what you'll notice let me try to remove um see I can remove all this stuff really quick so here if you look at at all Bitcoin pairs one of the things you'll notice is that in November of the having year especially last having year there was a two-e period where all Bitcoin pairs went up in mid November and then Bitcoin dominance still went up after that right all

Bitcoin pairs still sold off into the end of the having year so there does exist a scenario where it's just sort of like a two-e rally and then all Bitcoin pairs sell off my argument is that there there does exist a scenario where all Bitcoin pairs sell off but eth Bitcoin doesn't go lower or if it does go lower it doesn't go that much lower that is is is the argument that I'm I'm trying to make um at the end of the day you know I I can't know for sure when exactly the bottom is

going to occur for eth Bitcoin right at you know it's a falling knife to some degree in to proen otherwise I'm just saying that you know for purp just from an academic perspective this level it's the first time in three years where I thought maybe it it could be the bottom right before today um or really before a few days ago when it hit that level I hadn't even really thought about it being the bottom before too much right I mean it it always just seemed like it was going to go lower right because Bitcoin

dominance always seemed like it was going to go higher but now with dominance at 60 and it being about the same time after the First Rate cut and and E Bitcoin getting about the 50 SMA right it seems and bit dominance hitting 60% right it seems like it it's at least worthwhile of discussion right it's at least worth discussing if the bottom is in even if it does go lower right I think the discussion begins now right the discussion begins November of 2024 I don't know exactly how long it's going to take to really confirm

it um but for me 03465 is good enough right I don't feel like it has to go lower I think that very well could be um the bottom or relatively close to it if it's going to go lower I think it'll do it before the end of the year that is my best guess as it relates to to the eth Bitcoin valuation so I hope you can understand that you know it's a it's a theory that was a long time in the making we did see it go to 03 to 04 the last piece of

the puzzle for me is does ethusd actually go to lower log l lower logarithmic regression trend line what I would hate for people to do is to assume that has to happen and then watch 03 to 4 come and go right um so that's why you know I will continue to say hedging against that view makes sense some people can't get you know they they they can't think about it like that they they want to know is the bottom end or not and any other answer is is not is not useful to them for some

reason right as if anyone knows where where things exactly bottom so the the hard part with ethusd as I said earlier is that the only way it goes down is if Bitcoin goes down and and that would be generally fading good seasonality for Bitcoin what I would say to look for for E USD is what happens with Bitcoin here right I mean like does it just continue to break out and follow that typical havinge pattern my I would say this if Bitcoin were to come back down to this trend line here then it would certainly

favor eth going home right that doesn't mean that eth would go home at that trend line but I'm just saying if it were to drop back down there it would show that there's maybe some more weakness in the market that pre people are not actually considering so that's where I am right now I mean I I think it makes sense to ride the cyclical view as long as possible until proven otherwise I do think if Bitcoin were to drop back below 70k that would be a red flag right you know if if it were to

go back below 7 and I said before right I mean defer to the cyclical view a weekly Clos above 70k definitely diverted the cyclical View and we got those weekly closed above 70k and you can see that Bitcoin shut up 11% so I I do think it makes sense to defer to the cyclical view as long as Bitcoin is above 70k if Bitcoin goes below 70k again in the short term then it's possible we get the landing right which takes eth USD home but it's not it's not necessarily something you should bet the family farm

on right especially with you know with Bitcoin well above 70k so that's where I am that's how I'm managing my own portfolio I hope that makes sense I'm doing the best I can it's difficult because you know when you have large audiences like this you're kind of expected to have a strong opinion about things um and take a stand and the markets move in in very sto you know in stochastic ways right they don't go in One Direction all the time so every time they Zig and zag you have to answer for it you know

um I remember doing you know sort of like an a you know apologizing to all the people that were saying I was wrong about eth Bitcoin back in May when it got this rally you guys remember that right when I was saying it was going to go to 03 to 04 and then e Bitcoin got this rally and everyone was dunking on me on Twitter and I had to go on there and be like all right like maybe I'm wrong um but I even contended back then and I posted January February and may were the

same times that e Bitcoin rallied in 2019 I'm like why can't they do the same thing in 2024 and that's exactly what they did right but in the moment good luck convincing anyone of that back then right in May of 2024 good luck convincing you know the the eth Maxis that it could go lower from there there's no there's no point I mean I've learned that there's not really a point in doing it in in arguing because if you're right they'll rationalize it later on they'll they'll blame you for it occurring and if you're wrong

well you never hear the end of it you just become sort of the punching bag so it gets tiresome after a while right it gets tiresome dealing with it after a while and I don't really want to deal with it anymore to be honest I don't really want to um so you know for for me eth Bitcoin is close enough to whatever the Bottom's going to be uh just for completeness I'll follow it through you know to the end of the year and and we'll see where we are um but I I think it at

least makes sense to start thinking about is this the bottom if it's not the bottom how much further down could we go whereas before it always felt like it was premature to consider that the bottom could be in for E Bitcoin so and again ethusd is not the same thing as eth Bitcoin please understand that please understand it there's a difference between converting your Bitcoin to eth and converting your Us doll to eth right there's a difference and I think some people don't understand that difference and it's getting tiring you know reminding people that there

is in fact a difference between eth Bitcoin and eth USD eth Bitcoin is much easier to predict than eth USD the reason because ethusd is just dependent on what Bitcoin does but eth Bitcoin is more so dependent on monetary policy and other things like interest rates and and quantitative tightening that sort of stuff it's more obviously dependent on that than than the USD valuation of ethereum is right the USD valuation of ethereum is just mainly dependent on what Bitcoin does and you know predicting exactly where bitcoin's going to go is is so difficult and of

course there's people that claim to predict it but I don't know very many people who told you back in March that it was just going to bleed for six to nine months and then start to go back up after you know sometime after the 6 n month window not a lot of people were saying that right they most people are they calling for a major major move to 100K back in April or they were calling just for you know Bitcoin to just crash altogether a lot of people were saying sort of a slow bleed for

six to n months followed by breakout to new alltime highs until we get you know until we get moving again there still could be a landing right the the only way that eth goes home at this point on its USD pair is if there's a landing um but again I you know this video has gone on long enough we we'll talk about that in another video but in you know for the time being I I don't you know I think the idiosyncratic risk of eth is is not as high as it used to be I

think what ethereum does from here on out is more so just dependent on the market risk right if Bitcoin goes down it'll probably go down commensurate with Bitcoin if Bitcoin goes up perhaps it'll go commensurately up with Bitcoin but I think we're nearing the end of the phase where it you know like for for a long time we were just in the phase of if Bitcoin goes up eth goes down if Bitcoin goes sideways eth Goes Down And if Bitcoin goes down eth goes down right and it would seem like no matter what Bitcoin did

eth went down I think we're end I think we're ending that phase right I think we're ending that phase and sort of transitioning into a new phase which is why it starts to make sense to talk about all right has it bottomed it does in my opinion start to make sense to hedge the eth USG going home narrative because eth Bitcoin is likely very close to a bottom the the one thing to consider is that when in 2019 when eth Bitcoin bottomed and it bounced that bounce occurred actually while ethusd um you know it did

go up temporarily but then eventually it it went lower right if you look at at at eth USD you can see that like eth USD uh bounced but then eventually it did go lower into December of that year so I'm not I mean honestly I'm not married to the idea I I I've always valued the the Bitcoin valuations more than the USD valuations and so I'm I'm more happy to see that the the Bitcoin valuation has played out if the USD uh narrative also comes true I feel like that's just sort of the icing on

the cake it's not something that has to happen and that you have to bet everything you have on the IDE idea right it's something that you know if it does happen it'll just be a carbon copy of the last two cycles if it doesn't happen then the cycle is deviating from the last two cycles which it's possible that it could be um but anyways we'll wrap it up there thank you guys for tuning in make sure you subscribe give the video a thumbs up check out the sale on in the cryptoverse premium at inth crypt.of

that make the case that it's either in or it's really close to being in thank you guys for tuning in I'll see you next time bye