Are We Still In Bitcoin Bull Market?

What's up guys today I've got an amazing episode with Phil Rosen he is the co-founder and editor-in chief of opening bell daily in this conversation I break down a bunch of ideas that are unique you will not find anywhere else these are ideas that I've never shared with anyone ever before but you're going to get the first look Phil and I talk about Bitcoin how it crushed everything in November of 2024 we then asked the Question what is going to outperform Bitcoin in 2025 or it will it be the actual best asset we then get

into Trump all the policies why bitcoin's going up and we even start talking a little bit as to why this generation loves risk volatility so much and whether risk has been removed from markets this conversation is going to make you think more critically it's going to teach you a bunch of things that you've never heard anywhere else before and it is Going to make you question whether I'm right or wrong a number of subjects so let me know in the comments on that as well here's my conversation with Phil Rosen all right Phil what's first

topic we just saw bitcoin's second best month of the year it gained 39% in November and that was just behind the 45 % it saw in February which is when the ETFs launched and we right now are riding the Trump White House the launch of the ETF options and a lot of Trump's cabinet Nominees are pro crypto so how much of this momentum do you think is sustainable are you not entertained right if you think about what's happening right now sideway summer is over Bitcoin starts to go up weeks ago months ago we you and

I talked about this sideways summer LS people to sleep and then you get the explosion people can't psychologically wrap their head around the fact that Bitcoin was $69,000 on November 1st now at the beginning of December it's almost at $ 100,000 what happened in the month of November is that Trump won people realized that there was going to be Pro crypto policy and then there's a reflexive nature to bitcoin and the more that it coiled All Summer Long remember when it was just trading and trading and trading in that range it's coiling it's coiling it's

coiling it's like a spring let that baby loose and here we go now What I do think is interesting is it's coiling again right now because it's been trading between 95,000 and 999,000 for like a week and a half and so the longer we stay in this range it's coiling and coiling and coiling and when that spring gets loose over 100k this thing's going to fly and so ultimately what you really saw was investors said it's time to invest Trump was a part of it pro crypto policy was a part of it the price going

Up and the marketing that comes with that was a part of it right seeing that there was now Other Nation States interested in buying Bitcoin seeing micro strategy buying Bitcoin seeing some of the miners say we're not going to sell the Bitcoin we're going to buy more of it seeing micro strategy kind of uh fast followers or copycats pop up around the world that's part of it but all these data points line up and investors are sitting there saying you Know what I better buy some of this and they start to invest a little bit

more buyers and sellers finite asset band price goes up price goes up more people are interested they start allocating Capital goes up faster we're now getting into territory where we've seen 10% days in Bitcoin we're not talking about a hundred you know billion dollar market cap coin we're talking about something that's almost $2 trillion that's crazy but I don't think It's anything yet just wait to see what happens in 2025 so what's crazy about how well Bitcoin did in November in the last week there was actually almost half a billion dollars of outflows from Bitcoin

uh ETF so digital asset products um how much I guess how much of this great news for Bitcoin can we overprice it in is that even something to consider Bitcoin is underpriced it's undervalued today why is that because if I said to you what is The value of the strongest computer network in the world and you said to me $2 trillion I would kick you in the Shins I would tell you stop it the strongest computer network in the world is worth $2 trillion there's individual companies that are worth more than that this is crazy

it's obviously still undervalued now what is it worth nobody knows should it be worth 5 trillion 10 trillion 20 trillion I don't know somebody smarter than me will figure That out really the the Market's going to figure it out but $2 trillion is too low on top of that if I said to you gold is a 17 or1 18 trillion dollar asset we have invented something that is more portable more divisible it's cheaper it's faster it's more secure no one can confiscate it from you anyone can buy it you don't need to physically store it

all these things and it's only worth about 15% % of gold you'd say stop it kick somebody In The Shins again you'd say no it's obviously going to be worth at least gold and so that's a pretty big gap there's a lot of room for Bitcoin to close on gold and so I just think that any way you slice the macro picture of Bitcoin it is undervalued today now the hard part for people to wrap their head around is that people don't think of the macro value they think of the micro the dayto day the

week to week the month to month and they say to themselves well it Was at 100 then it went to 90 then it went to 98 oh my God is this the big crash did we top out is it going to go to 50 is it going to go to 60 who cares it's going way higher over the next decade and it's because ultimately the value of this network is not currently being exhibited in the price and so in the short run you have this very weird dynamic the voting machine as Warren Buffett would like

to call it but over the long run you get a weighing machine And so what we are going to end up finding out out is that Bitcoin today was undervalued compared to what the market thinks it's actually worth in the future the beauty of Bitcoin is that they ain't creating more of it so a lot of stock what ends up happening is you have 100 million shares and it's trading at a dollar okay and then all of a sudden the market cap goes up but because they created a bunch more shares so it's Dilutive but

they're also creating more market cap now of course there's a lot of nuance in terms of could it make the share price go down all that kind of stuff but in general there's a lot of things that you can do with a public stock that you can't do with Bitcoin to manipulate that market cap Bitcoin is a very simple Supply demand game if there's more demand for a finite Supply the price goes up if the price goes up the market cap goes up and what we are Watching right now is that there are pools of

capital that previously did not own Bitcoin that are now saying I need to own Bitcoin and they're going in they're buying Bitcoin when they buy Bitcoin the price goes up when the price goes up more large pools of capital say oh when this was a $200 billion market cap I laughed at it get this little nonsense out of here these kids on the internet right they're trying to kick me in The Shins get me get out of here but Now it's 2 trillion hm I might need to buy some of that I can actually put2

billion do into that no problem there's a publicly traded company that's literally done that and so when you see that you start to say to yourself Bitcoin gets less risky the higher the market cap goes very few assets in the world that occurs and so then ultimately begs this question of uh who's next what are the big pools of capital when the first big insurance company comes out And says we have decided to allocate $2 billion do to bitcoin every other insurance compan is GNA say well we should think about it I recently listened to

a podcast episode with Mark Rowan one of the co-founders of Apollo and uh he also um started an insurance company he's not a big crypto fan right he kind of plays the game of like I'm not really interested in that stuff I know anything about it Bitcoin is interested in him and I'm willing to Bet that insurance compan is going to hold Bitcoin at some point in the future so will every insurance company I was just recently talking to somebody who's very well uh known uh Wall Street researcher they're currently telling clients 60310 sounds a

lot like 6040 60% stocks 30% gold 10% Bitcoin I hear Bonds in there I don't own any bonds I'm not interested in that it's a losing asset TLT is down like 30% Over the last five or six years so you start to think of this you're like wait a minute hold on a second is Bitcoin going to replace bonds that sounds [Music] crazy but then you look at micro strategy a lot of bond investors seem to be trying to get exposure to bitcoin hm is that the canary and the coal mine cuz if so bitcoin's

undervalued given enough long you know Long enough time frame it's going much much higher how long is it going to take I don't know but I just think that a 40% performance in November obviously catches a lot of people's you know kind of attention it's up 150% in the last year it's up 130% year-to dat give or take and so a bulk of that came in November right a big portion of it what's December going to do December during the year of a having tends to be pretty good if you go back to 2020 when

Bitcoin broke 20K every day it was adding $1,000 I Remember December 25th hit 25,000 on December 26th it hit 26,000 you're like yo we are in a simulation this is crazy December 30th 30,000 you're like literally stop playing with us like this but think about going up $1,000 a day with an asset that's only $225,000 price from a percentage standpoint is pretty healthy and doing it every day when this thing moves as we Saw in November it can really move and so there's people now like oh we're going to break a 100 by the end

of the year like huh you're real courageous right you're basically predicting a $3,000 move in an asset that's worth a 100 so that's not very impressive but now I'm starting to see people say well what if it's 120 by the end of the year again I don't know what it's going to do I'm not predicting anything I'm out of that Game but if this thing hits 120 by the end of 2024 you're going to have every single dude on Wall Street getting a phone call from somebody saying what the hell why don't we have exposure

and guess what you do on Wall Street you listen to your clients if they say they want something you want the fees you want the AUM right you want all that so you go and you buy it and when they start buying price goes up market cap goes up becomes less risky More people buy it more clients call and here we go so something that's interesting as a as a journalist and a reporter I get a lot of pitches about covering different parts of the market different stories interviewing Executives and that follows the market so

when people want to talk about Bitcoin that usually happens when Bitcoin is going up and then when bitcoin's going down people don't want to talk about Bitcoin um this is the Most pitches inbound I've gotten ever in uh the last several years and everyone just wants to come on uh do an interview talk about where they think the price is going to go um fools yeah well maybe um no fools how do you predict how do you predict an asset like this well it's easy for them to do an interview because they just say it's

going to go up of course yeah but but that's actually the best answer it's just like it's going to go up over time Which is a bad answer but but it's the best of the bad answers right uh but once you start trying to pick prices and stuff it's really hard because there's not cash flow there's not all these different components to it um but I'm willing to make a bet with you that whatever the number of pitches are you're getting right now I think that we're going to be able to five x that before

the end of 2025 because Bitcoin historically has Had these blowoff tops so right now we're we're 40% a month right like hey here we go but usually the market doesn't top out until you get kind of 8 to 16 months after the having starting to get there kind of end of q1 beginning of Q2 maybe into Q3 somewhere in that range right kind of that 9mon period um man when the price starts going up $5,000 $110,000 a Day the pitches will flow in you you may get I I really believe this you may get more

pitches in a day than you're getting in a week right now because everyone is saying this is The Talk of the Town it's just you don't see this very often Nvidia is another example that thing went parabolic every single person all of a sudden uh we're like Nvidia we're not like Nvidia we did this we did that we're a customer of Nvidia we are an Investor in Nvidia our founder one time worked at Invidia my brother's cousins mother's girlfriend used to work at in like it's crazy but everyone wants to be part of the story

I think something interesting too is that the story has never been this compelling and that's part of the I think a lot of this is political as well because you have the first ever Pro crypto White House and you have Gary Gensler of the SEC leaving and that makes Bitcoin you know that Pretty much gives Bitcoin every uh green light imaginable um and I I'm getting I'm having a harder and harder time finding the risk so what what do you see as like okay this is the thing that could derail Bitcoin I don't think anything

is a fatal risk right the whole beauty of decentralization is you have such a degree of risk mitigation that you are basically solving for it's not going to go to zero now that is not unique just to bitcoin I also think that There's a lot of crypto networks that in general you have bag holders so it's kind of like you know use this as an example in a public company if you have a bad company eventually they declare bankruptcy the shareholders don't do that the executives do and they like it's over and somebody's there to

wave the finished flag right and say it's done there is no such thing of that in the crypto world so there are people still today holding some random altcoin From eight 10 years ago that just went to zero but it never actually went to the price of zero you probably can go somewhere and trade it for 0.001 Cent because there's somebody out there that still holds it and so think of this as like thriving or failing a lot of these networks will fail but people will still hold the token and so again what is the

risk it's not actually fatal what you're looking for is what Are the risks that the price is going to go down that people will stop using it Etc right and so I think on that front um some of the biggest risk to price are some of the strongest narratives today something happens to micro strategy what is a seen as a strength today can very quickly become a big weakness because there's con concentration of trust there's concentration of enthusiasm and so when you take that away you get the opposite Effect right I also think that there's

a lot of questions right now uh in terms of risks about some of these public companies that are beginning to get more interested Tesla we've seen in the past they sold some of their Bitcoin Bitcoin went down right so not just a micro strategy but the miners or other companies that hold they start to sell obviously seen as a risk to price I think that there is still although getting smaller a chance that you could Get some sort of uh regulatory action where everyone understands Bitcoin is through the threshold of is it a security it's

not a security it's not a security but if the United States really really really really really needs Bitcoin it really looks like those ETFs that you got there wouldn't it be nice if that Bitcoin became ours hey micro strategy that Bitcoin you got there wouldn't that be nice if that became Ours with like the signing of a pen the United States could own millions of coins I think the ETFs now have 1.1 million sailor's got 400,000 the US has already got 200k that's 1.6 million right there I'm not saying this gonna happen I think that

it is a very very very very small near zero percentage chance but still there's risk right and so in a weird way if Bitcoin became so highly successful that every country Around the world wanted it well we always think in the Western World terms and let's say that you've got the faith that the United States government is not going to do that do you think there's another government somewhere in the world that's going to do that hell yeah right so again we always talk in terms of the United States but then people say a the

US isn't going to do that okay I can rattle off a laundry list of other Countries that people will think have a high probability of doing that and so you get into this game of like okay well if some random country no one can point out on the map does it who cares Bitcoin doesn't care price doesn't care whatever but there's some countries that if they did it outside the United States people would care right we saw China as an example kicking out all the minors in 2021 again they affected the hash rate but that

had a pretty profound impact Bitcoin went down 50% so it depends on what the countries are what they're doing all the Nuance whatever but there's risk to price and the last thing that I would say is um Bitcoin in Bull markets is a race between the influx of speculators being converted to long-term holders so price goes up speculators show up price goes up speculators show up most people buy Bitcoin for the first time because they think they're going to get rich fine That's how Economics work work it's how free markets work it's how personal incentives

work at some point they get converted from I'm going to get rich I'm here to speculate to I'm a hardcore long-term Bitcoin holder no matter what you tell me I'm not selling some process that happens there let's say that that process is six months I think maybe that's a fair kind of average take six months or so maybe 12 if the bull market lasts in 2020 anyone who buys after March of 2025 will still be speculating at the top of the bull market they haven't had time to become a hard a hardcore holder yet so

as that price turns over it starts to fall some portion of those people sell they're not convinced yet of Bitcoin they're speculating and so what you actually want to see is if you could ideally draw it up you'd want tons of new people to Show up before the bull market but that's not how price works so at one point in 2021 50% of bitcoiners had shown up in 2020 and 2021 50% of all holders were new in that bull market in the up phase they never lived through a down phase a good portion of those

people are still around today not all of them some of them washed out some of them sold it obviously helped you know draw the price down but you have to also try to figure Out how do you go from Speculator to long term holder how do you compress that time frame there's more information available today there's podcasts there's blogs newsletters TV coverage friends are talking you know there's all these things that are helping but it doesn't happen overnight and so that is a risk is that you get such a rush of people towards the end

you know through a bull market that they're not long-term holders yet and so When that price turns over they just sell and so I always you know keep asking my friends what do you think the advisers are going to do you think that they're going to become like you know hardcore Bitcoin holders some of them but the majority of them are going to buy it they're to fomo in in Q2 2025 after we're already at you know whatever price because their clients are calling them being like you you told me not to buy this thing

and all my Friends are getting rich they're going to say fine I'm wrong buy it it's going to Peak start going to start to fall and they can't wait there're sitting around the fireplace at night all night smoking a cigar waiting for this thing to turn over so they can call their clients and say hey I'm the professional all right guy why don't you stick to making the money and I'll stick to invest in the money and they're going to sell it it's and it's going to push The price and so it's this weird dynamic

of just like speculation is needed because it brings in capital drivve price all that kind of stuff but if they don't convert to long-term holders in enough time you get the draw Downs yeah I I think it's interesting to think about how Bitcoin has become less risky even though the price has gone as the price goes up it gets less risky which is unique to bitcoin um but that risk appetite has Really exploded in November pretty much across the entire financial markets um the S&P 500 just had its best month of the year when Bitcoin

had its second best month and the Russell 2000 which is the small cap index had an 11% gain in 1 month which is unbelievable because that's a fairly risky corner of the market which is typically not advisable to be piling into what's your sense of the uh this sort of growing risk appetite how much of that is driven by Let's say the the next Trump Administration people think markets are going to go up or what's your read on this today's episode is brought to you by Ledger Ledger is 10 years old and they are the

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MC Miller called Donald Trump yes and in he talks about Donald Trump is Rich and Donald Trump is basically the epitome of wealth that's what the American people have convinced themselves of Donald Trump is going to make the stock market go up Donald Trump is going to make Bitcoin go up Donald Trump is going to make the 2000 go up this man is here with his magic wand he's going to wave the magic wand and asset prices are going to fly I'm not waiting I'm goingon to buy today and let Donald Trump be Donald Trump

regardless of what the data Says which you and I have covered extensively that the stock market goes up under every president that actually the two best performing president stock markets in the last 50 years were Democrats right all these different doesn't matter narratives matter and the narrative is that Donald Trump's going to make that stock market go up now the beauty of that narrative is it's true he is going to make the stock market go up Right he is going to make Bitcoin go up I would argue Bitcoin did pretty good under Biden Bitcoin did

pretty good under Trump the first time Bitcoin did pretty good under Obama the stock market did excellent under Biden as well it's not about the president it's about the structure of the market it's about the liquidity cycle it's about the devaluation of the currency the national debt and all these other kind of omic Things but it doesn't matter because nobody cares about facts figures data charts and graphs what they want is they want a face and there's nobody greater in the world at taking that sentiment of all of that structural smart sophisticated analysis and saying

look at my hair look at my dances listen to the YMCA and we're going higher and he's figured it out and so regardless of whether he's actually driving it or not he's getting ascribed the benefit of Being the guy and what I find so fascinating is if you put a president in the White House who measures the economic health of America by the stock market it's going higher the guy is not going to let it go down and so I actually think the bigger question is not is the stock market going higher is Bitcoin going

higher all of course it's going higher it's what is the ancillary damage that is going to be needed to be created in order to make that happen now What's fascinating is that Doge Department of government efficiency they're saying we're going to slash all this spending but we're also gonna pop the stock market we're g to pop Bitcoin we're gon to do all this stuff usually you would say if stock market goes up it's because we're spending a lot it's because we're devaluing the currency but what's fascinating to me is they're trying to do both if

they pull This off just put them up there put I don't know what a four or five guys on Mount Rushmore move some over put the sixth one we never had a president in my lifetime that's been able to drive asset prices not add to the national debt and cut spending it's a trifecta no one's been able to do it the last time we had a balanced budget was in 2000 and guess what happened stocks crashed in the dot bubble right and so When you look at this you say to yourself like it's incredibly difficult

to do this the odds are stacked against them right there's a lot of campaign promises all this whatever if you are a betting man or woman you have to bet against them right in the sense of just the odds are against them but if you said what do you need to do to pull this off you need somebody who can Buck the system okay you got Trump you need somebody who has Immense immense attention to detail and just chaotic management so you got Trump and Elon then you need an outsized number of the smartest people

in the country to come work a la Manhattan Project to cut spending Doge and then you need investors who don't look at data of a listen to narratives retail and you start to line all this up you say you know what this may work I Don't know if it's going to work I I'm along for the ride like body else but they got all the ingredients now we got to see is Trump really a good Chef or not right you know you ever watch the chef shows and uh they got everyone starts with the same

ingredients pretty good but somebody's gonna come out with a five star meal somebody's gonna come out with you know some you want to throw away and so which one is Trump we're gonna find Out I I think markets very much believe he's going to be great for the market because the amount of risk that in investors are taking on is uh you know the leverage ETF exposure is at an all-time high right now and there was a consumer confidence survey that showed 56% of respondents expect stocks to go up in the next 12 months and

that's a also a record high um to me it seems like there are a lot of risks that investors have suddenly chosen to ignore And I know the market is this all knowing thing that prices in everything but it does feel like from my perspective that risk risks are being very much Shrugged off right now there's no risk anymore there's no risk right and I'm not saying that's what the market I'm I'm telling you there's no risk because the Federal Reserve will bail you out the Federal Reserve and the OCC and the various banking oversight

committees and the politicians they Bailed you out when the banks failed you think they're not going to bail you out when the stock market goes down they've outlawed bare markets we had a recession and they refused to call it a recession in 2022 there is no risk and so I actually would argue the younger generation is smarter than the older generation now when I say there's no risk it doesn't mean that there's no risk in the sense of the market can't go down it just Means that if you're a young person it's going to recover

fast enough where it doesn't matter do you remember remember the 2020 market crash did it matter nope all you had to do is not sell and it was like you just woke up one day had you know had a bad nightmare the night before went to work came home forgot about it bam ready to rock and roll Global pandemic locked you in your house it literally didn't matter there was a study done you know who sold in 2020 the bottom of the market all Boomers why were they selling they went through 2008 2009 they remember

it took years to recover they were scared they said I'll take the 20% haircut just give me my money young people weren't selling young people are doing the opposite hm stocks are down let me start buying no sports on TV let me start gambling over here this is a market and so that's what I think ends up happening Is 2022 stocks crashed crypto crashed think about if you are a 25y old you came out of school 2020 2021 maybe 2022 let's say 2021 at the peak of the market you came out of school got your

little first paycheck wo what do I do with this let me invest it in the market okay what should I buy I don't know I don't got a big brain let me buy some stocks let me buy some Bitcoin okay 2022 you just get Punched in the face some stocks were down 80 90% I think that Shopify was down something like 70 to 90% real companies were down looking like shitcoins Bitcoin was down 69,000 16,000 that sucks if you just held you're back to alltime highs you pointed out recently the stock market hit 53 new

all-time highs this year nobody cares about 2022 and that's what young people realized is that the young people are Actually better positioned to weather storm of volatility than the older generation because they got crypto they've seen this you tell me one person in the stock market that bought a stock it rode up hundreds of percent it dropped 80% and then it went 5x from there and they didn't sell some smartass will tell me I know my uncle did that or my cousin okay cool what if I told you one out of every two Bitcoin in

the market did that 50% of the circulating Supply hasn't moved in 2 years it's crazy what a large percentage of this industry so I wrote at 2021 I believe it was or maybe the beginning of 2022 there's an investor who I'm not going to say was yelling and screaming about the market top the market top whatever and I said it don't matter this is the generation of volatility they have stronger hands than You do because when Bitcoin went from $88,000 in the having of 2020 to $69,000 along the way it drew down 30% I think

five or six times that type of Al they didn't sell and then it dropped 80% they still didn't sell it went up 500% they still didn't sell volatility doesn't scare them they want the volatility half of them are sports gambling the other half are buying whatever crazy AI coins another half of them are buying meme Coins and the last half of them are out here just speculating on whatever stock names and somebody will say that's four halves that's the type of math that they can do is that it doesn't matter what the math is they're

just riding with Vibes but we live in an economy where actually that works how do you explain an economy where there are people there's somebody who works with us somebody that I know told me recently they went from call it $10,000 in their portfolio to a quar million doll in two months outperformed every hedphone on Wall Street now they're doing it with a much smaller amount of money no risk all all the things right how many people know that person heard that story and just sat on their hands and said I ain't gonna do nothing

different come on we're dealing with people in Their 20s they said oh you could do it you're not that smart I'm way smarter than you are let me get some shekels out of my pocket let me go see what I could do over here let me cook right give me two months let me come back and see what I can do but that's what's happening and so I just think that it's this crazy world where the Wall Street people are yelling and screaming and they keep saying themselves over and over again that's not normal that's

not normal That's not normal I literally if I had account could probably come definitely with 50 maybe a hundred people I know who have a similar story where they started with a little bit of money they started investing now it's a lot of money and whatever that is some people started with a couple hundred dollars now it's worth tens of thousands of dollars some people start with $1,000 now it's worth hundreds of thousand some people bought an Asset put 50 Grand in and now it's worth a million but again you said that's not normal it

is normal for this generation because they constantly see it everywhere they look and they start to allocate and so the question becomes if this is going to continue when the market goes down what will convince them to sell I I don't know how how do you convince someone to sell who didn't do any fundamental Analysis they just have been trained just hold it just wait just's coming back so the question that comes to my mind when you bring all of that up this massive risk appetite what breaks when suddenly the Paradigm shifts maybe back to

what it once was there's no going back there's no going back because the FED broke the market it already the Paradigm did break but there's no like there's no doctor nobody shows up and puts the Patient back together it's broken we're in a new world but the new world doesn't mean that you can't win do well by using the old strategy a value investor is simply somebody who goes they buy something for less than it's worth that's a good strategy that will always be a good strategy doesn't matter what the market is Right Bill Miller

has forever was you know criticized you're not a value investor anymore you're buying Amazon and Amazon's not a value Investment he's like no I'm buying something for less than it's worth of course it's a value investment right so that strategy is not going away what it is introduced to the world though is this new thing and this new thing everyone is pointing at in that speculation no what these kids are doing is they're allocating capital in a full risk on environment because they understand that there's a safety net now so if I told you if

you allocate and Throughout history this been true if you allocate to the stock market hold for 20 years it's never been lower 20 years later never every time it drops you should buy more duh so so the safety net was a 20e safety net but what if I told you that now it's not 20 years what if it's 5 years with Bitcoin if you buy and you hold it for four years never in history have you lost money compressing those timelines the Boomers had 20 the Millennials had 10 gen Z has four years Buy and

Hold for four years you're always up if assets go down you just wait you're 25 years old before you hit 30 you're back you're bam let's roll just buy more that is literally what is happening is that information is moving faster capital is moving faster timelines are getting compressed but it all goes back to the dollar has got to get devalued and these things are Spreading in a way that we've never seen before because historically if a if a hedge fund manager bought a stock there's three things you got to do to make money as

a hedge fund manager you got to buy a good stock you got to go tell all your friends that they should buy the stock after you've already put your position on and then you got to sell the stock but that is how these guys have made money forever and if you ever listen to interviews With the greats or with a Jo blow random hedge fund manager on a podcast no one listens to they will all tell you the same thing they got an idea from a friend or they told their idea to a friend but

it's this whole game of like hey once I know then I got to tell the world right get long and get loud these things been going around forever now what's happening is these kids are saying to themselves I don't need to buy something And go tell my friends I just buy the things where word of mouth is already spreading and here we go Bitcoin what financial asset has more word of mouth than Bitcoin you don't need to tell your friends the world's already doing it for you just buy it right if you look Nvidia benefited

from this right was people were buying and they were going around the world AI is going to change the world AI is going to change the world BL Whatever there's a very strong argument and you've covered this very well Nvidia went up because chat gbt right so like the word of mouth of chat GPT then convince people to go by Nvidia so we're now entering this world where people are allocating Capital based on narratives but like is NVIDIA overvalued or undervalued if you went and you asked all the Nvidia shareholders what percentage you think could

actually Break down their opinion not even if they're right or not just could they explain how they think about it very few the smart Wall Street people sure they got you know C discounted cash flow models blah whatever nobody my my sense is that if timelines are compressing so much that you can make a profit there's got to be that's probably tied to like the Tik Tok brain where everything has to be immediate and I I wonder there's probably uh going to be a lot less Capital discipline over the years right because if everyone's used

to Turning profit so quickly on their Investments that probably shortens your you know your ability to stay in the market maybe that there's got to be some psychological downside here today's episode is brought to you by meanwhile meanwhile is the world's first licensed and regulated life insurance company Built for the Bitcoin economy operating on the Bitcoin standard they do everything in Bitcoin you pay in Bitcoin they pay claims to your family in Bitcoin you take out policy loans entirely in Bitcoin when you need liquidity meanwhile Bitcoin life insurance has redefined what it means to huddle

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today so What's interesting and I've been I I don't have a good way yet to fully flesh this out but um if you go talk to some of the best hedge fund managers in the world they'll say to you if I buy and it goes down I sell it right pul tutor Jones um uh a number of people and the whole thing is just like don't lose pretty simple buy something it goes down sell it buy it it goes up wait right like whatever that's pretty shortterm Oriented that's like a day Wall Street over 50%

of all options are now zero day options I buy something in the morning betting on what the price is gonna be at the end of the day this is not just a gen Z thing this is a pervasive thing across the economy my hunch is people have been doing this forever it's just that now they got access to more information and they don't got to call stock broker so they can do it themselves they go press The buttons rather than call the guy to press the buttons and so what that does is it increases the

velocity the volume the frequency Etc compresses time frames I would ask I had a doctor recently call me who I've worked with a long time been an investor of ours he um amazing man amazing world class at his job he owns some businesses like this guy's the real deal and uh he goes hey Pop um bitcoin's Looking pretty good so yeah he invested in a fund we bought some Bitcoins up huge you can make a lot of money cool is this you called me to let me do a Victory lap like this is awesome call

um I said yeah looks good so far let's see what happens you know whatever he goes what do you think about micro strategy what do you know about micro strategy right said uh you know here's my thoughts whatever he goes uh I made a lot of money on options and micro Strategy I said what' you say repeat that right it's like in the movie where the you know the record scratches everyone turns and looks and uh he's said yeah I made a lot of money in options trading micr strategy so I said hold on a

second here a doctor outside of a major Metro trading options on micro strategy this guy's incredibly intelligent very successful Everything if he's doing it what do you think everyone else is doing right like obviously they're doing the same so you you start to look at it and you say oh wait a second this is uh something where if you remove risk from the market even if you say okay not 100% risk 90% of risk been removed people push out on the risk curve and so what has Wall Street figured out wall Street's to blame for

this too they've just created better Mouse traps Shiny Toys zero day options zero day options is incredible zero day options is something that Las Vegas wishes they created but Wall Street figured it out so you start to realize like wait a second here we are just realizing that risk equals return because risk has a safety net so I have positioned uh or or posed the question to some of my friends some of my smartest friends named five Investments you could Buy today that you'll lose money on over the next decade forget about trying to make

money try to lose money name five Investments you can make very hard exercise oil I don't know gold it's going up Bitcoin it's going up stocks in general going up bonds probably one but like there's like two or three like kind of no-brainer once you get Past that it's kind of hard to pick number four and five and you get into like single name stocks right so like if you look at them from asset class standpoint you it's very hard to pick well how could you lose money like like intentionally lose the money so when

you start say that you're like oh wait a second here like actually people just getting long or the Smart Ones because they realize that from a Probability standpoint asset prices are going up not down especially over 10 years and that's just not how people have thought previously everyone has been very defensive diversification uh I've got to be smart only buy stocks that are valued less whatever that don't seem to be the that we live in right now now maybe it changes but hard to see how that happens if we follow that line of thinking that

stocks and asset prices Will go up indefinitely that sounds maybe like a bad thing macro wise if the dollar is going to get devalued indefinitely maybe but you need liquidity in a economy and so um that's why they devalue the currency right is the 2% inflation will convince people like well is that true if nobody actually even knows what inflation is half of half of The economy just holds cash so what you're telling me only the the rich people you know are the ones who are spending the money um so there are some ramifications but

um the counterargument to it is well the wealth effect if you know I mean the S&P is up 27% this year for every dollar invested you got an extra quarter now okay where do you think that money is Going some of it's GNA stay in the market some of it's coming out is going to get spent very few people I know sell stocks to save right wealth that is generated in the market either morphs and evolves into other Investments but it stays invested or it is taken out of the market and use for consumption but

how many people do you know that are selling their stocks to Save money there's the Warren buffets whatever but he's kind of like temporarily doing it because people think he thinks there's a market crash coming whatever but there's not that many and so the wealth generation actually perpetuates higher prices because hey I bought the S&P it's up 27% okay you know what that's a lot of S&P now let me sell a little bit of That let me go over here buy this thing and you know what I already got the S&P that seems to be

doing pretty good if it's go 27% of the year like I don't need to buy you know something safe and and sound what's the uh what is that that Nvidia thing let me go uh let me take a flyer my doctor friend told me you know this other Stu like you you start to speculate more because you feel like your nest egg is doing better than you Expected so you got a little extra and there's a psychological so like the whole like Behavior econom Uh behavioral economics of what happens when the market broke is fascinating

to the point where how many hedge funds have waved the white flag and said I'm not going to short single name stocks anymore like we are at war with an Insurgency people don't think about it this way but the short sellers are like the big mechanized you know Army showing Up they got their tanks they you know all their training they got their beautiful uh Uniforms on all the where're the big guys where the pros there's kids with red bandanas on the internet wrapped around their head who are literally just buying stuff and talking on

Reddit blowing up hedge funds and everyone just points to the GameStop thing it's like this happens all over the market to the point where literally hedge funds by and large are Saying we're not going to short single name stocks anymore that's crazy but is it because of the quot quote Insurgency like the the young kids that whole story it's good narrative it did happen a couple times anecdotally it's more likely though because you're basically picking up pennies in front of a steamroller you're shorting single names when they're devaluing a currency and pushing Everything up so

sure you maybe you're right every now and then but how many different assets could you and I point to and be like that company's a horrible Company stock price is up that cryptocoin is worthless no one uses it for anything it's up though and so it goes back to this idea of traditional stock investors think of two things when they buy how high could it go and how much Could I lose the younger generation is buying assets that inherently have no answer to how much can I lose there's no downside protection it is a 1x

downside a company has ass asss cash flows contracts you know all this stuff there's liquidation value and so all these super smart investors like oh we buy the bonds that are you know uh uh there's more hard assets underneath that could uh if liquidated we could recover 100% of our money there's kids on the internet like shut up old guy I'm buying a thing that literally is not tied to anything it's imaginary internet money but it's up 40% in November traditional guys will say that's crazy you guys are idiots time will come but they've been

saying that for 15 years right and so it comes back to this idea of when risk gets degraded in a Market and everything is structurally pushed up should you actually be Investing For What is the downside or should you be Investing For how much can I make on the upside and maybe the downside risk protection which actually I do think a lot of the young people think about is to build a portfolio and what they're essentially doing is they're becoming Venture type investors using liquid Assets and that's the part no one articulates which is in

a venture portfolio you build a portfolio of assets majority of them go to zero but the ones that work have an asymmetric payoff and the winners pay for the losers stock investors think of it the O opposite way they historically think of their batting average I want to make 10 good bets and eek out a little bit on each one 10 20 30% but if you go talk to the Stan D and Millers what did he learn From George Soros Etc he'll say it's not about how often you're right it's about how much you make

when you're right Venture investing power laws asymmetry and so the young people have taken that mentality of venture investing they're bringing it to these liquid markets but that's actually how the best investors invest and that's why they are drastically outperforming these traditional Investors and so you start to put all this together you're like like huh maybe what's new is not actually new it's just that they don't know how to articulate it right because they got a red bandan around their head and they're yelling and screaming about you know like take down the man but they

actually are employing some of the same investment strategies and tactics that you know the DRS Etc of the world are what is a non crypto asset that you See outperforming Bitcoin next year um I think there's a lot of assets I mean just use uh um in the month of November uh I believe that marathon and Hut 8 both outperformed Bitcoin so Bitcoin was up like 40% I think both of those were up like 70 75% again they're related right but public equities um I think micro strategy outperformed as well um if if I remember

correctly so there's like public equities that are still related To the same industry I think that there are always special situation stuff um you know if you think about something like uh there are companies that are heavily misunderstood in the public markets like one of the things so let me give some context uh for the first 15 years of my career or so only focus on private Market Venture investing then started to do some of the Bitcoin you know crypto stuff whatever But like generally private Market not public equities in the last 18 to 24

months it become much more interested in public markets um and so 24 months ago I'm like you know probably like above average understanding of business and investing zero experience in the public market I worked for a public company and that was about as good as as close to the public market as I got Um I'm fascinated by how inefficient the public market is and you kind of know this because you see crypto right and like it's liquid market and whatever it's crazy how there's not more money made in the public markets because when you look

at these Public Market companies like I don't know 25% of the companies just have no clue what they're doing in terms of explaining it to People but you dig under the hood and you're like dude this is a good business this is a good product like what you just told me understanding your business is not even remotely close to what your website says right and so it goes back to this idea of like if you could wave a magic wand and clearly articulate what every company could do 25% maybe more immediately get a stock boost

right and people just realize like oh wait a Second the thing that I thought was there is not actually what I thought it's better than that when they allocate so I think there's a lot of that stuff going on the beauty is that uh the young people in the liquid crypto Market they know how to communicate on the internet better than the these larger companies they also have the benefit of like they don't have legal up their ass right and so you I know public company CEOs are like dude I want to say a and

legal is Like no way so there's some of that going on so I think that that's a huge thing um and go to your question about like what's going to outperform bitcoin um it begs the question of like what is bitcoin's return going to be right and so if I had to guess what majority of if I pulled all my friends I would say that the quotequote price predictions for like highest point in 2025 land somewhere between 150 and 250 some people think 150 some people 200 175 225 whatever but there somewhere in that range

so let's just take 200 as kind of like you know some round number that that's like around the middle of those two numbers that's a double from here so what you're really asking is like what asset's going to go up more than double in 2025 I think there's a lot of assets I don't want to name individual stocks but like yeah that's not as big of a hurdle As people think right the question is what's your confidence level confidence level of Bitcoin going higher from here for a for hundreds of millions of people is very

high right so like that skew people to allocate there and then the second question is how much money can you put into it so if you go and you find you know a $50 million small cap public like sure but what are you going to do you're going to put a million two million bucks in Max Right and that's going to move the stock with Bitcoin you can put I mean unlimited money billions of dollars in doesn't doesn't even blink right I me think about this I think that micro straty has announced they've bought something

like 6 billion 7 billion dollar in the last like two and a half weeks and the price is down crazy right so you you're saying to yourself like all Right price performance there's a ton of options but I actually think that when you overlay price Performance Plus level of confidence plus can you deploy a billion dollars into it very very small right because you basically got to have something that doubles you have high confidence in and that you can put a billion dollars in I mean you know hedge fund managers paid millions of dollars a

year to go find those um they don't do a great job but You know they're trying uh and I think it's not because a lack of effort or intelligence I think it's just like again you know go go look back the last 12 months how many things more than doubled that you could put that you could have put a billion dollars in probably not that many right if you took the whole stock market maybe we should even do this analysis like look at the whole stock market what went up more than 100% and 12 months

ago you Could have put a billion dollars in without it being you know material movement of the stock price so it's just you know how many of those opportunities ever exist not that many pump uh thank you for your time thanks for doing this