in this video I'm going to explain in the simplest and most easy to understand way what positive expected value Sports spreading really is and why it's currently one of the best ways to make money on the entire internet if you're taking the time to watch this video congratulations because you're about to become smarter and more informed then 99% of all sports bets because that's the percent of people who will actually lose money over the long term to the books plus EV sports betting has changed my life and allow me to go from a broke college student to now making over $100,000 in profit all time betting on sports plus EV sport betting has not only changed my life but also changed Trevor's life who was able to start from a $100 bankroll and turn it to over $60,000 in just one year or Drw who was able to leverage plus EV data to make over $136,000 in profit in 2023 Alone Justin started plus EV betting and was able to make over $10,000 in profit in just one month as a full-time college student and there are thousands of more success stories of people who were able to create a legitimate second income Source from plus e betting the information in this video will change the way you look at sports betting forever and has the potential to change your life so buckle up lock in and get ready to learn positive expected value sports betting simply means to place bets that have an edge over the sports book and are mathematically guaranteed to profit over the long term in order to understand plus e betting you first must understand three things the first thing you need to understand is how Sports books make their money this is probably the most fundamental thing that you need to understand in order to be a good sports better to explain this let's look at one of the most standard types of bets and over under bet so with this game the Celtics and Trailblazers go over or under 2117 points pretty simple let's take a look at the payouts minus 110 for the over andus 110 for the under the minus means this bet is favored and the 110 means this is how much you need to bet in order to profit $100 so as you can see if I put $110 on this I'd win $100 in profit if I put $100 then I only win $90 and so on well guess what in an over under bet there are only two possibilities the sports book FanDuel in this case has determined based on their algorithms and information that there's exactly a 50% chance that this game goes over 217 points and a 50% chance that it goes under 2117 points that means that you as a player a regular person that doesn't have access to complicated algorithms and inside information has exactly a 50% chance of predicting his outcome correctly over the long run no matter how good you think it are at picking games or how much you think you know about the NBA and statistics you will on average over the long term get this bet correct 50% of the time well guess what let's think about the payout the payout is - 110 - 110 meaning that for every $100 you bet correctly you're only going to win 90 so what's going to happen half the time you'll win and make a 90% return on your money but half the time you'll lose and lose your entire stake so you win bang Plus 90 the next time you lose - 100 then you win bang Plus 90 then again lose - 100 and this continues over and over and over over the long term do you guys see what's happening here with this bet you're mathematically guaranteed to lose money over the long term because they've set the payout to be worse than the actual Fair odds what do I mean by Fair odds let's say I come up to you and say hey let's bet $1 on the outcome of a coin flip a coin flip is 50/50 and will always be 50/50 these are the fair odds the actual probability of the event happening well guess what guys a 50% chance is the same exact thing as plus 100 and plus 100 in sports betting these fancy plus and minus numbers Ka odds are literally just probabilities stay with me here we can actually convert an odd like this into a probability by using something called an implied odds calculator so literally just search up implied odds calculator bring one up and type in plus 100 and it shows us that plus 100 is equal to 50% so if the fair odds of a coin flip are plus 100 and plus 100 then what should the payout be if you win your coin flip bet the pay should be even meaning that if you bet $1 you should win a dollar this would be a fair game AKA a fair bet you'd win a dollar half the time and lose a dollar half the time and nobody has an advantage based off the laws of probability you'll come out dead even if we keep flipping this coin over and over and over now imagine if I said hey if you win the coin flip bet you're only going to win 91 cents but if you lose you lose your whole dollar this would be equivalent to Theus 110- 110 payout that we just talked about now I the sports book have the edge I'm making money over the long term because I'm winning a dollar from you half the time and losing only 91 cents the other half the time this is a negative expected value bet for you the player finally imagine if I said okay if you win the coin flip you get $110 but if you lose you only lose a dollar this is equivalent to plus 110 plus 110 odds now it's a positive expected value bet for you the player the fair odds haven't changed at all we're still betting on a 50/50 coin flip the fair odds are still plus 100 and plus 100 but the implied odds aka the payout are now greater than the fair odds meaning our bet on this coin flip is now positive EV if you flip this coin over and over over the long term you are now expected to make money so let's go back to the Celtics over under bet let's stop thinking about this as a basketball game stop thinking about the players stop thinking about their past performance stop thinking about the matchup stop thinking about who's at home and who's away the reality is that none of this matters it's already been taken into account by the Sportsbook when they set their line the Sportsbook has used their very smart algorithms to come up with a number that they think is about 50/50 and then they offer a - 110- 110 payout on it even though the the fair odds should be plus 100 plus 100 meaning they are literally guaranteed to make money over the long term this is why The House Always Wins that's also why these are called implied odds they are implying that there's a 52. 3% chance that your bet wins even though it's only 50 which lowers your payout the difference between the fair odds and the implied odds is called The Vig aka the house Edge it's also referred to as the hold or the juice for the purpose of this video we'll be referring to it as The Vig for any bet on a sports book we can actually find the Fair odds aka the true probability of Something Happening by using a no viig calculator so as you can see when we bring up the calculator and we type in - 110- 110 it tells us that the fair odds for this bed are actually + 100 and plus 100 AKA 550 if we want to find out how much viig AKA house Edge is on a bet all we have to do is add up the probabilities and then subtract 100 remember when I told you that an odd is just a probability using the implied odds calculator we can see that - 110 is equal to 52. 4% and- 110 on the other side obviously is the same 52.
4% add these up and we get 104. 8 it's impossible for the over to have a 52. 4% chance of hitting and the under to have a 52.
4% chance of hitting that's more than 100% it's also impossible for two bets to both be the favorite to win that's literally not possible therefore this extra 4. 8% is the house Edge you might be asking well what does this even mean a 4. 8% house Edge it means that for every $100 that you bet on this outcome you can expect to lose $4.
80 over the long run meaning this bet has an expected value ofus $480 cents you're mathematically losing money over the long term this is why 99% of sports bets are going to be losers long term it's a losing game by Design it's not some secret that these companies make billions of dollars every single year from people who think they can outsmart the books by looking at player stats and past performances this same exact system of offering a payout at a worse price than the actual Fair odds AKA adding the V or the house Edge supplied to every single bet on a sports book let's look at the Warriors and Spurs money line for example the Spurs are- 200 and the Warriors are plus 168 these are the implied odds put these into a no big calculator and we can see the fair odds aka the true probability should be + 178 and - 178 this is the pale that you should be getting let's add up -200 and + 168 to see how much vag AKA house Edge is on this bet - 200 is equal to 66. 6% and plus 168 equals 37. 3% this adds up to 13.
9% meaning the house has a 3. 9% edge on this this isn't rocket science guys there's a reason these companies exist and it's not for you to make money it's for them to siphon every single dollar out of the pocket of people who don't understand the math it's no different than a casino it's just based on Sports which makes people think that they can somehow analyze stats and past performance and get an edge over the house which is 100% false the odds are what you want to pay attention to these factor in everything and the books know way way way more than you this becomes way way worse when you bet on parlays let me show you something that's going to blow your mind imagine we put together a two-leg parlay of two over under bets and minus 110 odds now we have 52. 4 * 4 is our total implied odds which is equal to 29.
4 our total Fair odds is 50 * 4 which is equal to 200 subtract these and we can see that the house Edge on this parlay is now 99. 4% for every $100 you bet you will now lose $940 just because you added one leg and made it a two-leg parlay this is because in a parlay full of negative expected value bets the big compounds on top of each other leading to a very very unprofitable bet if we went all the way up to a 10 leg parlay full of - 110- 110 bets we would get 1,48 total implied odds minus 1,000 total Fair odds this is a house edge of 48% you'd literally be losing 50% of your money for every 10 leg part that you enter this is why Sports books love parlays and you see them always pushing parlays and parlay boost in your face it's because parlays are super profitable for them according to the University of Nevada's Center for gaming research Nevada Sports books made $32 for every $100 a customer placed on a parlay in 20121 that's a 32% Roi literally insanely profitable for the sports books so perfect You Now understand the concept of fair odds implied odds and Vig and how to find all three of these using a simple calculation you also understand understand how Sports books make their money by offering all their bets at a negative expected value I know that concept number one how Sports books make their money was a lot but stay with me cuz it only gets easier from here you basically learned all the hard stuff already everything else is easy this second concept is extremely simple yet 99% of sports bets don't seem to understand it and this is the fact that every sports book has different odds the price for a bet that you see on DrftKings is not the same that you'll see on FanDuel which isn't the same that you'll see on BET MGM this because different Sports books all use different odds makers AKA algorithms to set their odds this is important to know because you always always always want to get the best odds for your bet let's say the Steelers are playing this Sunday and you think that Mason Rudolph will have two or more passing touchdowns on fnatic sports book right now we can see that Mason Rudolph over 1 and a half touchdowns is currently available at a plus 190 payout on DrftKings the same exact bet is plus 154 on B MGM plus 150 and on Caesars the payout is only plus 143 so what exactly does this mean it means that for the exact same bet placed at the exact same time you would win 20 to 30% more money by placing it on fanatic Sportsbook instead of on another sports book like DrftKings or Caesars all of these bets have the same exact probability of happening Mason Rudolph has the same exact chance of throwing over 1 and a half touchdowns but on Fanatics we're making way way more money when this bet actually wins so we can say that this bet is being offered at a better price it's being offered at a better value it's not just enough to have better odds than every other sports book though this in itself does not make a bet plus EV in order for a bet to be plus EV you must have a better payout than the actual Fair odds remember so the question then becomes what are the actual Fair odds aka the real probability of Mason Rudolph throwing over one and a half touchdowns we know that the fair odds of a coin flip are 50/50 but how do we put Fair odds onto a sporting event the answer is to use a no Vig calculator remember we can simply input the implied odds and it'll tell us what the true odds should be but the problem is if every Sportsbook has different implied odds each of them will also show different Fair odds for example Mason Rudolph over under 1 and a half touchdowns is plus 150 for the over and minus 210 for the under on bed MGM if we type this into a noig calculator we get Fair odds ofus 169 for the under and plus 169 for the over as we can see our bet is at plus 190 on Fanatics so our payout is above the fair odds of B MGM which is good but not exactly what we care about the best and most accurate way to find the fair odds the true odds of your your bet and ensure that your bet is plus EV is to find the fair odds on a sharp sports book a sharp sports book is a sports book that is known for having the most accurate and fair odds this is what sharp means the sharpest Sports books in the world include books like Pinnacle Circa book maker and FanDuel if you've never heard of these Sports books or you don't have them available in your area don't worry it doesn't matter essentially we want to use these Sports books as basis for comparison or essentially using them as data points let's look at this Mason Rudolph bet again if if you notice over here we see the odds on a sharp sports book pinnacle pinnacle like I just said is one of the sharpest Sports books in the world meaning they have the closest to the true odds for sporting events so let's plug the odds from Pinnacle into the noic calculator when we do that we can see that the fairest and most accurate sports book in the world thinks that Mason Rudolph's true odds of going over one and half touchdowns is plus 175 we're getting our bet at plus 190 meaning right now at this moment in this video we just found our first positive expected value bet this bet has a positive EV of 7% meaning that over the long run we can expect $7 in profit for every $100 we bet on an outcome like this 7% EV for a plus EV bet in sports betting is very very good I'm not going to bore you guys with more math but essentially 7% EV is what we arrive at when we do the expected value calculation that I told you guys about in the beginning of the video this is a huge positive Edge for us the player if we do this with every other Sportsbook on our list Caesars DrftKings fliff bet openly betway ESPN and most importantly Pinnacle we see that our bet Mason Rudolph over one and a half touchdowns at plus 190 is above the noig odds of every single other sports book that has this line confirming that we're getting both the best price and a plus e bet the payout is above the actual chances of him throwing one and half touchdowns meaning that over the long run if we place this bet over and over and over and over we would always come out positive an important thing to realize that a lot of people fail to understand is that positive Ed value does not mean that your bet is more likely to hit this does not mean that Mason Rudolph is a lock to throw two touchdowns it simply means that we have a better payout than the actual odds of him throwing them everything we just did might sound complicated but it's actually really simple number one we found a bet where the payout is better than every other book number two we then compared the implied odds aka the payout to the fair odds of a Sharp book in this case Pinnacle boom we found a positive expected value bet two steps and in case you guys did notice we're not actually finding these bets by hand that would be literally impossible instead I'm using a software called OD Jam Plus EV tool I highly recommend you guys go down to the first link in the description and sign up for a 7-Day free triy of OD gem because I'm going to be using it for the remainder of this video to show you guys how you can start making anywhere from 3 to 5K per month plus e betting with less than 60 Minutes of work per day so much of the money that I've made betting on sports has been because of this website and it's the gold standard tool for betting on sports that pretty much every professional sports better uses it is a paid tool after the free R trial but it's well worth the price as I'm going to show you in this video you'll also get 35% off your first month when you sign up using my link also stay tuned for the end guys I've got a big announcement when you enter ojm for the first time it's going to have you select all the sports books that you use in your state so simply Click on each one and you're ready to go after that go over to the left sidebar where it says positive EV when you enter the plus EV tool for the first time it's going to ask you for your bankroll and Kelly multiplier your bankroll is simply how much money you have to bet in total while Kelly multiplier means how much of your bankroll do you want have wagered at one time I recommend a Kelly multiplier of 0. 25 after that you'll be into the plus EV tool and it's extremely simple to use all you have to do is go up to this top bar here and turn on recommended filters as the name suggests this is a tool that searches for and finds positive expected value bets on Sports books it does this by comparing odds for different bets across 100 plus different books I want you to look at this in just one NFL game the Rams versus Giants if you count up all these things that we can bet on there are over 2,000 unique bets that we can make and that's just for one game at any given time on a sports book there are tens of millions of individual things that you can actually bet on the Plus eeve tool is scanning all these bets across every single League NFL NBA college football golf hockey tennis everything in real time to find these rare opportunities where Sports books have essentially slipped up and offered plus EV lines and it's not just doing that on one sports book it's doing it on over 100 and comparing them all to each other in real time essentially this is the most powerful sports betting tool in the world whenever it finds these rare odds these rare opportunities that are plus EV it displays them in this dashboard over here is the percent Edge that this bet has over the sports book the higher the better right here is how much money you should place on the BET and over here to the right is the actual bet and what sports book it's on this is a simple example of how to place a plus EV bet here I can see that Jan Johnson under 1 and a half receptions has a 5% Edge over the house and the recommended bet size is $25 this bet is available either on B Rivers B bet or unibet so I go over to bet Rivers I find Jawan Johnson under one and a half receptions and I place $25 on it it really is that simple you only want to place this bet though if the odds are the same as displayed in odds gem because odds are constantly changing the odds could be different by the time you log in in which case you missed your opportunity and you would skip this bet and go to the next one the plus EV opportunity is Jawan Johnson's under at plus 188 if we log into bet rivers and his under isn't at plus 188 anymore we wouldn't place this bet if you have any questions or you get confused by literally anything you can email contact OD jam.
com and we'll help you out you can even get a completely free one-on-one coaching session finally the third thing they need to understand is that odds are constantly shifting and moving you might be asking yourself why would a sports book offer a plus eeve bet if they're guaranteed to lose money on these bets in the long term the answer is that they aren't doing it on purpose a lot of the time what happens is these Sports books slip up and aren't quick enough to adjust their lines to match the market this leads to some bets being an outlier from the market Sports books are constantly shifting their odds and lines based on news information lineup projections and the amount of money coming in on each side at any given time they have millions of different odds they're offering with all this going on it's impossible for them to keep up with every single one and make sure that none of them cross into plus EV territory granted this means that the opportunities move very fast on average a plus e bet stays up for a few minutes at best meaning when you find one you've got to be diligent about getting it in on time before the sports book corrects the odds some of the best times to find plus eeve bets are in the hours directly before a game if college basketball games are happening at 1 p. m. on a Saturday there's going to be a lot of line movement from 10:00 a.
m. to noon even up to 12:30 and a lot of plus EV bet opportunities are going to open up an important metric that you should be aware of is closing line value or clv for short the closing line refers to the odds that a bet closes at when a game starts the closing line is the sharpest and most accurate reflection of what the odds should be and you always want to beat the closing odds with your bet for example let's say you place a plus bet at plus 120 you took this bet at plus 120 but when the game starts the same bet has moved to plus 100 this means that the sports book thinks the bet is increasingly likely to happen you got it at a much better value you beat the closing line which is the Hallmark of a successful Sports better let's talk about two considerations for plus EV betting the first one is limits if you didn't already know sports betting companies do not like winning players and at any time they can limit the amount of money that you're allowed to bet at any time that they want this is an email I got from fanatic Sportsbook just yesterday saying that they put limits on my account and sure enough when I went to place a plus e bet they only allowed me to place $12. 50 with plus EV betting it's pretty much guaranteed that you're going to get limited on these smaller books like bet rivers or betting m GM for example but luckily books like FanDuel or DrftKings are a lot more lenient and take way longer to limit you if they limit you at all if you get limited on a Sportsbook it doesn't mean that you're in trouble it's simply them trying to reduce the amount of winning players just ignore it and keep doing your thing it means you're making enough money to be a nuisance to them the second consideration is variance variance is simply the ups and downs that you'll experience as a plus EV better even when you have the edge over the sports book it's still possible to lose bets in the short term you can't just Place 50 bets or 100 bets and then say that plus e betting doesn't work you need a large sample size of bets in order to realize your Edge you can lose 10 bets in a row and still be a massively profitable Sports better you can even lose 3,000 bets and only win 800 just like I showed you earlier and still be a massively profitable Sports better do you guys think that the best poker players in the world never lose a game of course not these guys lose millions of dollars sometimes just in one night but they make millions of dollars in profit over the long term because they have an edge over other players in order to track your profit you'll need the third consideration which is tracking your bets every single profitable Sports bet tracks their bets so that they know how much money they're making at all times picket is a completely free app that connects to your sports betting accounts and automatically tracks your bets download it now and use my referral code Eagle 24570 so that I can get a small referral bonus again the app is completely free when you place bets picket immediately tracks them and automatically shows all your profit loss and statistics over time pretty much every profitable War better uses this app and it's an extremely useful and cool app but unfortunately it's not compatible with every Sportsbook more like 90% of them if you want 100% accuracy you can do what I do and use the OD Jam bet tracker whenever you place a bet click this blue plus button next to it verify the details and then hit save it will then be put into your bed tracker and Sh in your statistics when it either wins or loses let's take a look at my bed tracker for the month of December you can see that this month I made $4,498 in profit with an RI of 11% this means that for every $100 I bet I made an average of $100 back which is super good I beat the closing line by 70% which is a great number and pretty much going to guarantee that you're super profitable I had 671 total bets which might sound like a lot but it's really only an average of 20 per day which takes literally less than an hour lastly I won 59% of my bets which is super insanely good but definitely not the norm a commonly asked question about plus e betting is how much money should I start with the answer is that you can start with as little as $500 if you're a beginner and you want to build up your bankroll fast I highly suggest you go watch my my first video how to make risk-free money betting on sports and that will show you how you can easily 3x a 500 or more bank roll with literally no Risk by using bonus Bets with the information that I just gave you in this video you now have the keys to make 5 to 10K per month betting on sports I know this because not only am I doing it but so are many of the 500 Plus members in my Discord Community Juiced bets we have a whole community of vetted professional sports Bets with over half a million dollars in total tracked profit who send out profitable plays all day and will answer any questions that you have about betting on sports we also have plus EV Bots that run 24/7 and ping you whenever there's a high EV opportunity available on a Sportsbook not only that but we also have extensive guides on everything you can possibly want to know including bankroll management how to win on prize picks and Underdog fantasy and extremely lucrative Advanced betting strategies that you'll only find exclusive to this Discord the juice bets Discord is completely free for 3 days and after that is paid but it's worth every single penny I can honestly say that being in the Discord has been a compl complete game changer for me and for several hundred other people we have over 340 f-star views for a reason again you can get a free 3-day trial by using the link in the description also don't forget if you have any ojam related questions email contact OD jam.
