TOM LEE: "THE NEXT 90 DAYS WILL MAKE MILLIONAIRES IN 2025"

so Tom Lee one of the best analysts in the business just said that this current market downturn is going to make a lot of millionaires let's find out what he's talking about now he made a lot of splashes over the past few years starting all the way from 2023 when everybody was bearish he was bullish of course he got the right call but now he's coming out again against the grain in his latest media appearance on the risk reversal media podcast full video is linked below he talked about tariffs recession fears but he also said by the DI I'm going to play you a highlight real of about four minutes from that interview then I'll share with you my analysis my recap of everything he said and my reactions and then we're going to do an interesting exercise we're going to put his words to the test we're going to use objective data and statistics historical data to test whether it is actually the smart thing to buy the dip during a downturn because maybe the smarter more effective strategy is just to hold we'll see we'll find out with data not emotions not hunch feelings none of this gut feeling stuff just actual hardcore data but as always first of all don't click nothing don't smash nothing don't buy nothing just listen let's play The Highlight Reel so the investors view this as a crisis when it's really a growth scare so to me I think there's a good chance we're we're making our lows for the first half like this week and like down five six percent you mean yeah it could be yeah I mean you know the only thing is I I'm not that optimistic about the job picture for the near term so maybe that's one last leg but the reality is is that a lot of bad news has gotten priced in you know if someone is playing AI today it's not a mistake to bet on the leading companies for now and so that means you know Nvidia and you know other Tech names around that so I think the market is getting all that right and they're getting the power right and the need for uh things to support the expansion of data centers but what they have to be mindful of is the correlation of all that is 1. 0 like they're all going to stop working at the same time once the Tariff talks go away uh the environment is favorable for American focused companies which would be you know small companies and they'll benefit from lower rates and their multiples are lower so I I think it's still a big opportunity but in the middle of tariff talks you know none of these groups can really do that well well inflation is a problem because prices aren't going to go back down and they're up 50% over the last couple years and so I think it's going to be harder and harder for consumers to tolerate more inflation you know like even if it's still at 3% it's still going to be unbearable if I look at from a markets lens I know a lot of people are saying that there's a second wave of inflation underway or it's picking up and you're seeing it in the consumer surveys I think one we don't know what the seasonality is and I think the consumer surveys themselves are actually very flawed right now and they're picking up less the fact that egg prices are up and I think more political um um respondents you know like the um survey there's a huge bifurcation between Democratic views on inflation versus Republican and the bond market itself is giving very conflicting messages about inflation in fact I would say if I looked at what the bond market saying I think it's saying there's no problem with inflation the reality is that if policies are enacted that create such a severe shock because of tariffs then we could have a recession right I mean that's like a fact because I mean if you put a 300% tariff or something we don't really know how to tit trate that number and that's why investors are nervous but it's at the same time the tariffs are accomplishing the administration's goals because if I was the White House and I know that I have some opposing risk from the FED today because the fed's hawkish paused well if the tariffs are causing confidence to fall and business activities low then the FED has to get off neutral but then everyone's playing a dangerous game because as you know you can't you don't want to get stall speed in the economy because the day the economy gets to stall speed we open up the the uncertainty of a recession because you know a shallow recession I mean a recession is unknown once it starts so as you just saw Tom Lee was talking about a lot of stuff he was talking about the fact that the stock market is currently having a bad his ofit we all are feeling it but he basically says look being bullish like myself in a negative sentiment environment is hard right I totally understand this and I've also talked about this in my latest Zoom meeting with my members and I said look the most important element of long-term investing is the mental game right the mental game of investing is where millionaires are made Warren Buffett actually said this in one of his most famous quotes is when everybody's bearish and bullish it's not as easy as it sounds it's very hard to be bullish when everybody all of a sudden become bearish and that's what Tomy is talking about he's 100% correct if this was easy everybody would be a millionaire it takes a lot of Courage a lot of guts to trust your thesis even though everybody around you are panicking now he also dropped I think a gold nugget here and he actually said look folks geopolitics Wars nothing to get excited about right now we have a war in Ukraine we have a war in the Middle East right but none of these wars that's been going on for a year two years none of them have slowed down the US market why well that is because the US Stock Market has been historically unaffected by geopolitical tensions and looking on geopolitics as a way to infer about what's going to happen with the US Stock Market is just not a good way to utiliz data and I think he's right over the past 15 years we had a lot of turmoil across the world not just Wars a lot of geopolitical MTH and yet over the past 15 years that we've saw this termal well the SCP found it gave you 700% not too shabby and of course he talked about the elephant in the room the Donald Trump tariffs now to his credit he didn't dodge the question and he didn't play it off he said look the T sh risk is real and I agree with him here right he says basically that this risk is not something to disregard or ignore if Donald Trump decides to pull the trigger and go ahead with this well all hell actually may break loose I agree with him here let me explain what he's meaning here and he basically in my opinion says this he said look if Donald Trump is real with this if he's going to go through with the tariffs and he's going to ramp it up and ramp it up and ramp it up eventually what's going to happen is that the cost of living in the United States is going to go up inflation is going to go up and if inflation is going to go up without the wages going up then we might see a situation of a stationary environment high unemployment and high inflation and that is a recession and that is a stock market crash nothing is ridiculous about that statement I think he's 100% point the guy who holds the keys to this is Donald Trump how far does he want to take this tariff thing right how far does he want to take it only Donald Trump knows he's the most unpredictable person on Earth if Trump actually decides to pull the trigger on this and we're seeing a more stationary environment because of higher inflation well the FED wouldn't be able to help because if inflation is elevated and we have a recession cutting rates and bailing out the market isn't an option anymore because cutting rates is going to set inflation even higher so the FED is going to be locked out from helping the market in this particular scenario so Tomley is actually right a lot of risk but he also says look despite this current volatility he doesn't believe that Donald Trump is going to crash the market and to his credit most of the market shares that sentiment if the market thought Trump is going to take this all the way through and actually cause this the pricing of the stocks we're seeing right now would be a hell of a lot worse things would be much worse if people actually believe Trump is going to go through with this now he thinks that this current situation where experiencing over the past five days is a grow scare not a crash who knows right he says look near term we're going to hit lower lows probably but longterm a lot of upside in 2025 it's very hard to predict these things it's all depending on the Donald Trump effect if Trump decides to crash the markets nothing we can do nothing we can predict I would say that he's right if Donald Trump doesn't push the button but if Trump decides to go through with this this analysis is pretty much worthless right now he also talked about the fact that he believes this is going to be about a 5% correction not really a 10% correction what is he talking about here well as you've been listening to me over the past few years I've been beating the drum of yeah the S&P 500 corrects three times per year 5% and once in every 3 years by 10% right so what Tom is saying this is probably not that 10% in a threee it's probably the usual quarterly 5% pullback nothing to get excited about H do I agree with him we'll find out we'll find out he thinks that this is a temporary glitch we'll see if this is a bug on the windshield of the market or it actually is a huge Stone that's going to you know derail the car so far you know year today the is actually up 1 and a half% and you know the past week we dropped 1. 2% so we're far away from that 5% there's more to go and if you wanted a good answer to why I'm not 100% in paler and Tesla a lot of people have asked me over the past two years when paler and Tesla were flying through the roof and people were telling me well Tom why do you have 40% of your portfolio in the laging S&P 500 you could have been in paler in Tesla 100% because look at this potential and I've always told them be careful of the floor they have a way lower floor than the S&P 500 and the last week we just had the stock Market is proof having a 1.

2% drop off in my 40% section of the S&P 500 feels a lot better than that 32 and 20% drop I have in Tesla and paler let me tell you about that now look obviously this isn't permanent but I like to have some insurance and the SCP 500 is this nice warm blanket I can cover myself with in weeks like this man this is a huge proof of my concept now short-term turbulance according to Tom Le is definitely to be expected but he still believes that 2025 is going to be a great year now I want to talk to you a little bit about the theory that I have in my head about why these Market DS are really important for investors and it has nothing to do with Tomley right think about a lobster did you ever think about how Lobster grows I mean I didn't know up until a few weeks ago how Lobster grow but apparently there're this mushy creatures that grow in this really hard shell and that shell doesn't expand and when they grow to a certain point the shell becomes uncomfortable unbearable and then they shed that shell and they grow a new one etc etc and they do it again and again every time they grow they become uncomfortable and so forth and so forth now think about how it applies to investing if you've lived through a lot of crashes you're absolutely immune to this panic and fear even if you went through 2022 if you just started investing in 2021 you've seen the hype you crash in 2022 even then you're forged you've seen it you wrote out that discomfort made you stronger now a lot of new investors they don't have that they haven't lived through 22 they don't have that to rely on and something to build on as far as creating this wall against the panic and that's why making these videos to tell them hey I've been through this not my first rodeo this happens it's absolutely normal now the way we grow from here is by understanding that we have two scenarios scenario number one that MrTom Le is right about this in that case nothing changes we keep going chugging along dollar Coss averaging into our favorite stocks and the S&P 500 but what if tomble is wrong what if we're actually headed for a crash well what do you do in this situation do you keep buying even though you understand you're heading even lower down do you slow down do you sell what's the best strategy in the downturn in the crash and is it actually smart to keep buying when you know that the stock market is going to go lower well in my previous video I told you something very important I told you that bare markets create Millionaires and I showed you that over the past 100 years we had 20 crash in the stock market that's about every 5 years we have a crash and over the past 25 years the last quarter Century we had four crashes 200 2008 2020 many crash in 2022 the bare market right and even though we had four crashes in 25 years if you just set the SP 500 you did 500% your money you 6X your money now why is that the case well that is because as I explained my previous videos bare markets tend to last a lot shorter than bull markets bare markets about 10 months on average bull markets are 5 years on average so you see the difference you have to play the odds if you understand that the bull market is 5X more likely than the PA Market well you know where to put the money right it's pretty obvious now look at the co crash in the co crash we went down to 2,300 in 2020 not that long ago just 5 years ago we were 2,300 on the SB of 100 we're now at 6,000 we've made 200% in 5 years and if you just set out because the co crash freaked you out you just missed on one of the greatest r now all of this is fine nice and dandy but Tom you promised us data where's the data you promised us Tom Show us the data that proves that this is indeed the right strategy buying the dip is the right strategy well hang on then sport I'm about to so I want to show you this article for Market sentiment on stop stack this is not a sponsored video I'm not affiliated I'm not making any money from them I just think they got a great newsletter and they wrote a piece called bu the dip and that pce they actually showed three possible scenarios they took three hypothetical investors cautious Charlie average Andy and daring Dave they started investing in 1998 with $0 and they invest $100 every month into the stock market like clockwork and they invest all the way to 2022 right for 24 years non-stop the only difference is that average Andy what he does he basically just DCA dollar cast averages across those 24 years he doesn't even check his account he doesn't care the daring Dave guy which is a lot closer to my theory he basically does the same thing but when the stock market drops 10% below the all-time high which is called the threshold point in this article well in that case he goes and buys $200 instead of $100 because he's doubling down on the dips right and then we have cous Charley C Charlie also does DCA because he's smart he understands that dollar cost averaging is the right way to invest but anytime the stock market dips 10% below the all-time high he stops the dollar cost averaging until the market recovers right and they've tested this Theory over the past 24 years from 1998 to 2022 who outperforms Who and the results are going to shock you so while C Charlie returned 239 per. not bad well average Andy returned 334 per. a lot better but guess what daring Dave the guy who was doubling down returned 376 per.