this year will be a good year we will go to much higher valuations and then after we've rolled the debt we tend to tighten liquidity cuz the inflation pressures have come back somewhat that tends to draw down the markets we kind of reset again before we start this cycle all over again history is repeating at least according to Global macro investor Raul Paul 2025 will make millionaires watch today's whole video you and I know Raul for his amazing Bitcoin and salana predictions in the bare Market he told us about Bitcoin here he told us about
salana here a lot has changed rul has just updated his 2025 crypto prediction based on global liquidity Cycles in this video he Reveals His bease base case and bull case smash the like button post this video on social media so more people know about this before we get into crypto let's first talk about traditional markets and the global liquidity cycle in general Bitcoin because of Black Rock and Wall Street follows the stock market now if that's the case what's your stock market predictions this year this will inform his Bitcoin prediction because all of this is
based off of global liquidity you can tell the host recognizes that Raul has been right before I want to get your views on the S&P and the NASDAQ now we've had two incredible years uh 23 and 24 S&P and NASDAQ up 25 to 30% both years I read in one of your letters you had an incredible 2024 up 150% one of your best years ever I'm going to have to give you some of my money but what are your thoughts do you think we can have a third incredible year in the S&P I'll use the
NASDAQ as the best example 97 and a half% of the entire trend of the NASDAQ is driven by liquidity so it's a 97 half% correlation so really what is driving Equity markets is the action of the Federal Reserve plus the treasury that's the treasury general account that is the reverse r um that is the balance sheet and then in addition it's what the global governments are doing so Global liquidity is the Big Driver of everything so if we know that there is I don't know 8 trillion or 10 trillion of debt to roll this year
the bond markets already struggling they need liquidity well the probabilistic outcome is we're going to get a lot of liquidity Trump also likes High asset prices so the chances of this being another strong year for equities is high it will be probably volatile probably more volatile than last year was but I think I don't see a world in which it won't if the government rolls its debt which it has to do and it's the same for the Europeans it's the same for the Chinese it's the same for the everyone's got the same thing to do
and to do that they inject liquidity so it goes back to the point I made earlier he's going to do anything and everything he can to keep the economy going keep the markets going yeah number one roll the debt that's the single most important thing because if you blow up your entire Bond markets that's the end of the game so rule number one roll your debt in doing that you have to add liquidity and that's going to drive asset prices so it's going to make him look good so Global liquidity is about to explode combined
that with the Trump Administration is now referring to bitcoin as a store of value they say a strategic Bitcoin Reserve is one of the first things on the table the feasibility of a Bitcoin Reserve you said that's being studied it's one of the first things that's that's on the table here uh what goes into that process the item that President Trump asked our working group on digital asset to study is whether it's feasible to create either a Bitcoin Reserve or some sort of digital asset stockpile and so we're going to be looking at that question
we haven't committed yet to doing it but it's one of the first things we're going to be looking at we now know it has been confirmed 100% yes a Bitcoin crypto stablecoin and digital assets strategy is unbelievably important for the Trump Administration to accomplish here's why David recast for us if you will the value of Bitcoin specifically cryptocurrency and blockchain technology in general what do you see as the real value and the reason why the United States government should be paying so much attention to it well I think there's a few different aspects here when
you're talking about digital aspects so first of all you got Bitcoin it was the first digital currency and it's the original it's the strongest one it in the parliament of the industry it's the most Lindy meaning meaning it's been around around for over a dozen years now no one's ever hacked it no one's ever cracked the security around it and so it is a excellent store of value so that would be Point number one Bitcoin is run on as you know a blockchain it's basically distributed Ledger uh which is essentially a form of decentralized computing
and that platform can be used to create a lot of other types of products and so that would be sort of technology area number two is all the Innovation that can be built on top of blockchains and then I would say a third area that's very interesting is stable coins uh and this is an area that has already taken off but mostly offshore we want to bring that uh Innovation onshore we want to uh uh enable legislation to allow the issuance of stable coins in the United States and I think the power of stable coins
is that it could extend the dollars dominance internationally uh extended online uh digitally and create potentially trillions of dollars of new demand for our us treasuries which help could help support our debt and bring down uh bring down long-term interest rates so I think these are all three very exciting areas of of digital asset technology and even more significant we could hear final answers on this in the next 6 months you did talk about the need for this clear regulatory framework how quickly can you stand this up well I was on the hill today meeting
with the leaders of Our House and Senate committees for uh Banking and for finance and they are very committed to moving legislation through the house and the Senate this year uh in order to provide that clear regulatory framework that the digital assets ecosystem needs to sustain innovation in the United States and so uh those chairman I think are very committed uh president Trump is committed and I think we can do something here uh but as you know uh moving legislation through Congress takes time but I think this is something we could do in the next
6 months so Global liquidity explosion booming stock market Trump Administration Paving the way for digital assets in the US with all that being said listen to billionaire banan Zone invest Raul Paul give his bare base and bull case for Bitcoin in 2025 do you agree with him normally in these presidential election cycle years the business cycle Peaks towards the end of the year so Bitcoin had a very complicated 2021 but what we Le now looks very similar to the 2017 post elction for Trump and what we saw then was ongoing injections of liquidity we started
the year with a sharp 30% correction or 25% correction sort of the sort of thing we're getting now um and then liquidity just came all year and it didn't it wasn't actually massively put in by the US it was actually China last time um and I think we might see that again this time where China is going to play an important role in global liquidity so I think it's going to be a much stronger year than people expect people have a lot of PTSD from 20121 where it peaked early then collapsed then went back up
again then collapsed um I think it's going to look more like we saw in 2013 2017 so yes I remain very bullish for this year on all risk assets so if uh if I use similar numbers let's just use round numbers it's at 100,000 you see it pulling back 25% to 75 and then take off probably not even I don't think it goes down 25% because there's ETFs and there's you know the market is more mature so let's say it go you know let's say 90,000 so it goes from 100 where did it get to
110 down to 90,000 okay that seems about right um so not far from where we are now um and then it finishes the year in a worst case scenario I think it's like 200 250 in a base case scenario it's kind of 350 and in a blowoff Top Cycle like 2017 back end of the year could go north of 500,000 and it's not just Bitcoin anymore it's crypto baby salana just had its best quarter yet chain GDP up 213% vanak is predicting salana hits $520 this year we're seeing so many people come around Mike novogratz
now says he was wrong about cardano he says he was wrong about xrp he says altcoins are about to enter a paradigm shift the reality for all crypto ecosystems is narrative brings an enthusiasm and enthusiasm creates value and why smaller ecosystems persist is because they have some little narrative that keeps their their participants engaged um and you look at something I always pick on cardano and mostly get yelled at but I I was wrong I was wrong in that I thought lots of these ecosystems would go away uh and they didn't and I have a
very different view on this now like it's the libertarian view if people want to be part of the xrp army let them that's their decision and xrp has a narrative and they like it it's in some ways all of these ecosystems have a little bit of store of value in them people are storing their value there and the narrative that gets people there is often not store value right most of the market cap of ethereum right now is store of value but what got people there is a narrative about this is going to be three
and with micro strategy rebranding to just strategy we really are in a new paradigm if you're interested in making money in crypto make sure you subscribe with notifications on as people with notifications on are the first to comment and then their comments rise to the top let's continue this conversation in the comments I'll see you tomorrow with another daily crypto video
