China didn't fold. Canada didn't fold. Mexico didn't fold.
The EU didn't fold. So, when the going gets tough, guess what? Donald's not such a tough guy.
And uh and I think that's where we are with Ukraine and Russia. There is a level in which we can talk about what has happened in the past week regarding uh the attempts to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine and how this really was a story of the US issuing an ultimatum not to Putin but to Keev to accept demands which pretty much mirrored a lot of the Russian demands. And then we could talk about the personal level of Trump getting frustrated with the combination of Ukraine not accepting that ultimatum and then the Kremlin for reasons I'm still trying to figure out carrying out this overnight attack across Ukraine but with the deadliest effect taking uh being in Ke where we've got at least 12 people killed u where we've got more than a hundred injured as I speak to you.
Um because if you put those two events together, the fundamental with Trump is that he's not going to get his photo opportunity with Vlad. Uh at the start of this week, Donald Trump was telling reporters, "We're close to a deal. We're going to get a deal going to happen this week and it's not going to happen.
" And not only is it not going to happen, it's looking quite distant. And the problem that I think is that Trump's initial irritation, his insults, let's be honest with was with Zalinski, the Ukrainian president Vladimir Zalinski yesterday and he repeated all these insults about why does Zilinsky continue resisting the Russians? Uh why is he fighting to keep part of his country yada yada yada yada but there's an interesting dimension here which is the Kremlin keeps overplaying its hand with Trump.
So, I think the easiest way to do this with you is can I walk you through the past week and explain where we've got sound and fury at the top with Trump and then we've always got to go back to the fundamentals of where we are with this Russian invasion and how you have a very chaotic Trump administration that you can't situate. You can't figure out exactly where it is. Okay.
And I think the starting point for this is is if we walk this back only a week ago, it seems like a lifetime, but only a week ago. For the first time, you get the US, Ukraine, and the European three, UK, Germany, and France in direct talks. Now, this is taking place in Paris.
Now, if you think about it, this is on the surface a huge breakthrough in that if I was talking to you two months ago, the Ukraine and Russ sorry, US and Russia were trying to stitch up everything in direct talks. But for reasons that I can talk to you about, the the Kremlin mishandled that, the US and the Trump people and the Russia were not able to get a deal they could impose on Ukraine. Instead, Ukraine got European support and they got themselves back at the table.
So, here we are in Paris a week ago. Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, Steve Witoff, the real estate developer who pretends to be an envoy. He comes in, they come in and they say, "Here's the final deal.
" The final deal. And the final deal, which is on one page, and it's handed to Ukraine at the Europeans, gives Russia lots of stuff. You know, the US is going to become the seventh country in the world to legally recognize Crimea as part of Russia, joining countries like Bellarus, North Korea, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Cuba.
Right? The US is going to give deacto recognition to parts of four regions that the Russians occupy. Two in the eastern Ukraine, two in the south.
The US is going to pursue economic cooperation with Russia. And you can only pursue economic cooperation with Russia in the energy and industrial sectors if you lift sanctions. The US is going to take control of the Zaparisia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine, Europe's largest nuclear plant as part of this remaking of the energy market alongside the Russians.
Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO. What does Ukraine get out of this? They get a vague declaration that they can get a security guarantee without explaining where it comes from and they get uh a vague declaration that they'll get some type of funds for recovery without any explanation of where that's going to come from.
All right, the upshot of all this is Ukraine and Europe have gotten back to the table only to get this US ultimatum and the Zilinski government doesn't fold. They stand firm. Uh because the terms of the deal weren't announced.
We had to piece this together from leaks to the media. Zilinsky doesn't refer to it directly, but at the start of this week, he says, "We're not giving up any territory. " Okay?
We're not going to legally recognize Crimea as part of Russia. Okay? Okay.
And they said they're And then on Tuesday night, the uh Ukraine sends a message through the Europeans to the Americans said, "We're not accepting this proposal. We are proposing a 30-day ceasefire. " So all attacks stop from the air, on the ground, from the sea, and that'll give us the space to be able to talk about a more reasonable reasonable resolution.
Fair enough. Now, Trump boys don't like that. They were supposed to come to London on Wednesday.
They thought, "We're going to sign the deal. Marco Rubio is going to sign the deal. " Steve Witco, the real estate developer posing as an envoy, is then going to go to Moscow to meet Vladimir Putin by the end of the week.
And there's going to be a big celebration. Well, that plan's just been blown up. Sorry, it's bad phrase to use in the context right now.
That plan has gone by the wayside. And Marco Rubio says, "Well, I'm not coming to London then. I'm going to stay home.
I might see you in a few weeks. " And Ukraine and Europe says, "Okay, fine by us. " And they wind up meeting Donald Trump's envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, who's probably one of the few adults in the room um on the Trump side and they have lower level talks.
But the upshot of that is is as we get into Wednesday during the day now Trump doesn't have his deal right now at this point what I'm thinking and I was watching I'm thinking okay how's everybody going to play everything and and Ukraine was easy to read Zalinski comes out and says we want the 30-day ceasefire we're not giving in on territory we're standing firm support us uh French President Emanuel Macarron's office as soon as Rubio said he wasn't coming. They said uh European security, Ukrainian security is paramount. So, we know where the Europeans are and there's been further statements that have come in, including from Kier Stmer.
Well, how are the Russians going to play it? How are the Russians going to play it? Right?
Are the Russians going to come in and uh say, "Look, the Americans have this plan. We think it's a really good plan. This is what we should really stick with.
We should defend that, right? Now, not for me to advise bad blood, you know, he he ain't going to listen to me anyway, but I'm thinking maybe you should do that because that gives you the diplomatic high ground. It's an ultimatum, but at least you make it look like Ukraine and Europe aren't accepting the terms.
What do they do instead? They hit Ukraine. If I get I have to go back and check my numbers.
I think they hit Ukraine with around 70 missiles. Now, that's the largest missile attack that has taken place uh in weeks. It's one of the largest this year.
And they hit Ukraine. Uh I'm sure there were well over a hundred drones that they hit them with. And symbolically, and for real effect, they go after Keefe.
They go after Kee big time. So, what the Kremlin is doing is it's like it's like they're lashing out that this deal didn't get accepted, but all they're going to do is is they're going to upset. They're going to alienate people.
This is bad PR. Now, I maybe they're playing to their domestic audience, look, we're still tough. We're still going to fight.
Maybe they think that that Ukrainians are going to fold. Spoiler alert, they're not going to. But all what they have done is and this is where Trump's response becomes significant is they've they've they've lost the not lost they won't lose him but they've unsettled their vehicle.
They've unsettled their guy. This was their way they to get the agreement. This is what they've been working almost a decade for to get Trump in.
They got him there and so and then they overplay. And all I can say to you is is that this is not to say that Putin is is is not smart. It's not to minimize Putin.
He's extremely smart. He's got smart advisers. He's dangerous.
But what I would say to you is is that since since they got Trump into office, they have misplayed this. At least from what I'm looking at it, and if I walk you back to February, they've got Trump in the office. They've got direct talks with the Americans.
They occupy parts of four Ukrainian regions. They've got Crimea. They can get America saying Ukraine doesn't get into NATO.
We get about 25% of Ukraine. What do they do? They not only keep on hitting Keev with the keep on keep on hitting Ukraine with missile and drone attacks, they ask for even more.
We want all of those four regions. Now, what's the problem here? They don't control all of those four regions.
They don't control much of Harrison in the south. They don't control part of Zaparisia in the south. They don't control part of Daetski in the east.
So, they're actually asking to get territory that they don't occupy because Vladimir Putin annexed this back in September 2022. Now, and then they say, "Oh, we want the Zinsky government out. We want the Zinsky government out.
" Not everybody in the Trump administration wants to be on the side of the Kremlin. So when the Kremlin did that, it gave an opening for those PO people in the Trump administration, Keith Kellogg, to say, "Look, we need to rethink our approach here. " And at the same time, Ukraine and the Europeans said, "We want to talk to you.
" And you might remember there were Ukrainian talks on rare earth minerals. You might remember that there were Ukraine and European talks with the Americans about security guarantees. that took place.
In other words, the Kremlin overplayed their hand in February. They opened up the space for Ukraine and Europe to get back to the table. Now, with Ukraine and Europe at the table, but facing an ultimatum, they overplay their hand again.
We'll say in 24 hours, they might row this back, but they they they look bad. And and I know that in this world that we're in, you can think that you don't have to worry about how you look. You can be an an authoritarian like Vladimir Putin is like Donald Trump is trying to be.
You can think that you don't but you still have to get the right optics. And right now as I speak to you beyond the thing that we should remember most importantly and that is there are people who died in Ukraine today. There are people who suffered today.
There are people who have gone through an absolute hell today. even if they weren't physically hurt emotionally and mentally going through hell because they don't know what's going to happen tonight. Fact of the matter is is that the Russians come out looking like the villains in the piece.
Uh and at some point if you want to get a recognition of your occupation of Ukraine, you at least have to pretend that you're being reasonable about it. Trump's worried. I mean, Trump is worried and that's why he's lashing out because there's a pattern here with Trump that when the going gets tough, Donald disappears.
Um, and I give you a parallel to this. Um, back at the start of the Trump administration, you might remember he was going to solve Israel in Gaza. I'm going to come into office.
I'm going to solve it. And the one thing that that Trump has actually I think achieved and he did it through the real estate developer posing as an envoy Steve Wickoff uh is that working with the Biden people they put pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to a phase one ceasefire. Uh and you might remember that there were some hostages, Israeli hostages and some foreign nationals that were released by Hamas.
There were Palestinians that were released from Israeli uh prisons. But that that of course was the easy phase if if anything is easy in that horrible mass killing. Um you had the question of when you were going to move to phase two six weeks later.
Uh now there was no way Israel was going to accept phase two. Netanyahu is under a great deal of pressure from his hard right. U he has sworn to destroy Hamas.
Hamas is not going to leave Gaza. So there were no conditions for a phase two. So what happens when phase two doesn't happen?
Trump stops talking about well Trump started he starts talking nonsense like ethnically cleansing Gaza and having you know a Riviera with a golden statue of him you know blah blah blah but in terms of actually being involved in trying to get a phase 2 ceasefire Trump administration does nafal and that means that they've effectively given the Israelis a blank check to continue with the attacks. So, he just sort of walked away from that, right? When you talk about the tariffs, I mean, and we're in the middle of this fiasco, this ongoing fiasco, but when uh Trump can't get his way immediately, he just starts to flounder.
So, he what's happened in the past what, three weeks since Liberation Day, um he's retreated. He still has tariffs in place, but they're not at the high levels they were at. uh he has actually started to retreat on some of the tariffs on China with the announcement he might exempt auto parts coming into the United States from tariffs because China didn't fold.
Canada didn't fold. Mexico didn't fold. The EU didn't fold.
So when the going gets tough, guess what? Donald's not such a tough guy. And uh and I think that's where we are with Ukraine and Russia.
Now what it does is and this is what makes it difficult not just as an analyst. It makes it difficult for the pe for the people who are in the room. They now have to to talk about where they're going to go next given how unpredictable not only Trump but some of his other advisers are.
So Ukraine and Zilinsky have to decide where their next steps are. Europe has to decide where their next steps are. Um and I think we're getting signals today.
I think what is interesting to me is the responses that have come in from President Mrn in France, the incoming chancellor Friedrich Merittz in Germany, uh, Kirst measured. There are reasons why the UK is more measured. I'll explain why if you wish.
Ursula Vandereline, uh, European Commission head. And they're all using the Kev attacks to talk about the necessity to stand behind Ukraine, which means you're going wider with this. Because remember what Europe is doing is they're planning for what they do to keep Ukraine functioning, to keep it sovereign, to keep it as secure as possible.
and you can't really be secure giving the attacks, but as much as you can do anticipating that the US is off, the Trump administration is off on the side. Um, you know, Ursula Vandereline has made that declared commitment to 800 billion euros in 5 years in defense production and defense investment. Now, you may not get 800 billion in five years, but you're going to get a lot.
And a lot of that defense investment is going to be inside Ukraine. Now, that's a tip off to what you're talking about, which is bolstering Ukraine economically and as a military power, right? You're talking about a German Chancellor, Friedrich Merritt, who's much tougher in terms of supporting Ukraine, who's talking about, for example, that Ukraine will not only get long range missiles, Taurus missiles, but there will not be a veto over how they're used, which is what the US always imposed over the French, German, and US missiles.
Um, you know, you're talking Kier Starmer talking about uh once you get past this silly term coalition of the willing, um, not just if we have a ceasefire, what will be the European presence inside Ukraine, but if we don't get a ceasefire, what are the security guarantees that we're going to be talking about, right? And I also anticipate, and although a lot of people aren't talking about it right now, I suspect you're going to see I think people are going to start getting serious about Ukraine coming into the EU. um you can't bring them into the EU until you get a ceasefire.
But I think the planning for that is going to is going to accelerate as well. And you're also going to see planning which is going to be over the security of other countries because remember Russia is not just a threat to Ukraine. It's a threat to Poland.
It's threat to the Baltic states. Uh it's even a threat to certain non-EU members but who are applicants um for admissions such as Muldova. Um, you know, I'm not want to portray the EU as savior.
Uh, EU moves far too slowly, far too cumbersome, but they have stepped up to the mark quite a bit here. And I think that again, if I was going to give a rap on this, it takes me back to what I said three years ago and it and I always come back to this when people talk about Russia is winning. You know, Russia's winning this Russia.
And by the way, spoiler alert, take a look at their gradual advance in eastern Ukraine. It slowed down a heck of a lot in the past few weeks. And ask yourself why.
I said going back to 2022 that Vladimir Putin gambled and he lost. He gambled. He could break Ukraine within weeks.
He gambled not only that he could seize territory, including the capital Kev, he could overthrow the Zalinski government, he could capture and possibly kill the leaders, he could destroy Ukraine's military, he could install a public government. None of that happened. Instead, Ukraine remains today.
NATO has expanded with Sweden and Finland joining the block. The European Union has more people wanting to join it. You have a Russia which has actually isolated itself on many fronts even if it continues to fight the war.
And that what the past week has reminded me is that Vladimir Putin having gambled and lost in 2022 may gamble and lose in 2025. that I think probably from a position over confidence that he had gotten his guy in to the White House, that he thought he could bully his way into breaking Ukraine using Trump as a vehicle. And it ain't working out that way.
