so one of the subtexts of the last 30 years was not only usmany but also make sure that there isn't a a close uh German Russian relationship and that's of course the essence of the US opposition to nordstream and and to Natural economic trade between Europe and and Russia and the United States broke it and the Europeans basically worked for the United States during that period against the interests of Europe now they're recognizing my God what are we supp I mean they're not quite recognizing their shell shock they're completely bewildered of what's happening what's happening
is very sensible which is we're pulling back from the brink of World War I this is great news there's no question about it that it's great news uh and as you say they can't even figure out that it's good news and Europe is one of the huge complete puzzles in all of this Europe is a it's 450 million people it's got an economy in purchasing power terms of about $30 trillion do this is a big important place without a foreign policy it's it's rather amazing uh now yesterday interestingly in the uh the parliament I can't
speak for more than those that I met and it was a peace group that that hosted the meeting meeting but there were many uh members of many of the political groups at uh at at this talk that I gave something will change even in Europe of course you know they're completely bewildered because vanderlay and and kalas and everybody else in the European leadership staked everything on a militarist confrontational us Le bides deep State us approach and it's gone suddenly and so they're all out there without any scaffolding without any sense without any Direction they don't
know what they're doing but they are realizing something different needs to be done this is the tragedy uh Germany and Russia are absolutely complimentary economies uh Russia uh with this combination of technology and incredible engineering sophistication and vast natural resources and Germany with its industrial base fit together economically it's an incredible combination the United States hated that idea the Deep State I I go back on this issue 35 years uh I uh at the request of President gorbachov's economic team I tried to bring the US and the Soviet Union together in 1990 1991 my idea
was that the United States at that time would help with financial stabilization provide some grants and Loans so that Soviet Union could carry out its uh political and Industrial and economic reforms it was the idea that I had was uh rejected completely by the White House and I didn't understand that that was the neocon moment taking hold recently it was fascinating for me I read the minutes of the National Security Council meeting dissing my idea and I never read them before it was somebody sent them from the archives they've just been opened up and the
Americans were completely stupid and obnoxious one of them was a former colleague of mine at Harvard completely obnoxious what they say in the meeting is we have to do the minimum we're not going to help on anything where're no vision just us nastiness uh well I experienced it but I hadn't read the minutes of of the actual meeting uh when when this approach was decided in the 1990s basically the American view was uh you know R Russia's nothing except we can grab the natural resources uh I hated it of course I uh tried to help
uh with President yelson raise funding again turned down flat because the Americans had a completely different idea which was unipolarity and grab natural resources where you can I also found it extremely important now it's tantalizing it doesn't prove anything but it's a glimmer of hope here the two are meeting in Riad now Saudi Arabia is absolutely the lynchpin of achieving peace in the Middle East uh and there they are at the uh at the invitation of the Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman and I I believe I get I'm guessing that they spoke about Israel and
Palestine just as peace will come to Ukraine now peace could come to the Middle East basically with the one change of vote by the United States a vote for Palestinian State as the 194th member of the UN and then there will be normalization of relations with Israel by the Saudi Arabia by actually all 57 countries of the organization of Islamic cooperation were tantalizingly close to a breakthrough for peace again whether uh Donald Trump can break the iron grip of the Israel Lobby in the United States which has done so much profound damage to American politics
ICS and to the Middle East and to world uh peace and risks I don't know but he's broken the iron grip of the deep state neocon project and maybe he can break the iron grip of the Israel Lobby the same way well the war is of course a war between the US and and Russia being fought on Ukrainian territory it's not a war between Ukraine and Russia this is the basic point this goes back for 30 years in the Ukraine project of expanding the US military reach Eastward Eastward basically by the way from Brussels to
Vlados was the ultimate aim in other words This Is Us hegemony at play and President Putin said no and the war broke out 11 years ago at the maidan coup which was also a a Us action to a very substantial extent to overthrow a Ukrainian government that favored neutrality and the Ukrainian public favored neutrality overwhelmingly there was no move by the Ukrainian people to join NATO this was a topdown push and coup in February Russia is a very sophisticated economy filled with very sophisticated uh people and well-trained engineers uh and by the way as as
the world's largest land area uh with vast natural resources the population is modest by big Power standards at 150 million people but we're entering an age where the number of people is not really decisive they going to be humanoid robots and AI systems and many other things the this incredible land area the vast resource forces the northern route the Arctic route something that is obviously on President Trump's mind means that Russia is a great power no question for generations to come uh and uh one that will play an increasing significance in the world economy uh
and this is partly what was discussed in in Riad uh so in this sense uh it's the war started by the United States Eastward movement uh and every other Us action especially by the way and it's very much underestimated in its impact the 2002 unilateral abandonment of the anti-ballistic missile treaty by the United States was to my view the most profound destabilizer of all because ultimately we're talking about survival nation state survival National Security missile systems this is what has been on President Putin's mind for 20 years keep your missile systems away from our border
this has been enunciated repeatedly as Ry McGovern the former CIA uh wonderful analyst uh told us a few months ago in February 2014 the United States participated actively in a violent coup to overthrow Victor yanukovich the president of Ukraine who favored neutrality this is very important to understand the coup took place on February 22nd 2014 again I saw some of this with my own eyes it was ugly the US involvement in this coup US forces paid for this coup to an important extent they stirred up this coup this is all well understood the American role
in this has been quite sorted for a very very long time uh the goal starting back in 1994 was to expand NATO and Surround Russia in the Black Sea region president uh uh Clinton signed off on that in 1994 big brinsky wrote about it in the grand chess board in 199 97 explaining it and explaining in a chapter that is uh completely wrong when you look back at it said Russia will not be able to resist any of this uh in 2002 the US destabilized the relationship by unilaterally abandoning the anti-ballistic missile treaty in 2008
the United States invited Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO B basically over strong objections by the Europeans but the Europeans went along in the NATO Bucharest uh Summit in 2008 over Russia's brightest red lines this was all known understood provocations all of the diplomats knew it European leaders knew it I spoke with them at the time everybody understood this now in 2015 the war could have ended with the Minsk 2 agreements but the United States and Ukraine despite the UN Security Council backing said no you don't have to do that that was not a territorial
claim on the donbas by Russia it was a claim for autonomy that the UN Security Council unanimously supported and the US and the governments in Ukraine at the US behest to an important extent completely dissed Biden knew what he was doing it was a terrible mistake terrible mistake of the Democrats let me say and of President Biden and his team and then it's true that Biden and Putin met in uh 2021 in December 2021 President Putin put on the table a draft us Russia security agreement it was a completely negotiable document I spent quite a
bit of time speaking with the White House about that document there should have been negotiations the US rejected negotiation over the central point which was non-nato enlargement to Ukraine then in March 2022 just days after the start of uh Russia's Invasion but by the way the war had been going on for years but this escalation in starting February 22nd 2022 just days after that they went to the negotiating table and they came very close to an agreement until the US and Britain stopped it Bojo Boris Johnson one of the most irresponsible politicians in our modern
time explained it explicitly later he said this is a war about preserving Western hemony yes this was a proxy war against Russia this was the plan all along and the US and UK talked or told zalinski basically leave so the idea that China is an aggressive power there's nothing in the Chinese statecraft history or tradition of this even when China was undoubtedly the regional hedgemon in terms of power it did not impose punitive actions it did not invade it did not try to expand its territories this is all very important to understand because when wangi
speaks about statecraft he's speaking about a very deep vision of statecraft when the West speaks about statecraft and the West failan order and so forth they're speaking either with knowledge or implicitly and with their implicit knowledge or their background culture that States fight each other and in the uh international relations of the West the realism uh idea is well it's just a tragedy we're doomed to fight the Chinese actually do not hold that view and I I mean not just superficially not propagandistic actually they do not hold that view they do not quite understand why
are you always fighting stop we can get along we can trade we can do other things and this is absolutely basically true China does not threaten the United States in any way it happens to be extremely successful very Dynamic technologically sophisticated wonderful it's bringing all sorts of great things to the world like deep seek lowcost Ai and many many other things there's no possibility that the two sides could damage each other except to blow up the world and so stop provoking this is the the number one point number two is Chinese statecraft it's incredibly mature
in my opinion uh and in my experience and I I go back uh in China 43 years and I don't know how many dozens or hundreds of visits but it's a lot many times every year Chinese statecraft is extraordinarily impressive because you do feel uh the lessons and uh awareness of 2,200 years of history of statecraft the US is a baby compared to this trying to find its footing uh China was unified first in 221 BC now there's a phenomenal period to understand and study between 13368 uh the beginning of the Ming Dynasty and 18
which was when Britain invaded so so 1839 when Britain invaded um during that period of several centuries East Asia was a dominated by a very successful China but not tormented by China it was an era of peace unbelievable Europe's fighting everybody's fighting each other killing each other non-stop Wars East Asia is in peace sometimes called the confusion peace but the point is the the Chinese when they were running the show not the Yuan Mongol Dynasty but the the Ming and the Ching never invaded Japan never invaded Korea right there right on the border never with
Vietnam there was a war 1410 to 1427 you know basically 17 years out of six centuries whereas think about France and and Britain for example non-stop hundred years wars nonstop conflict so you had nation states Japan uh Korea Vietnam uh China they're not fighting each other for centuries China never ever ever in its history invaded Japan ever the the Mongols did when they controlled China twice 1274 and 1281 ad they tried and they were defeated by the so-called kamakazi winds two typhoons I've I've always believed I've said for years and years and years and years
and the years are now quite quite long uh that there are no fundamental conflicts between the United States and Russia I'll say the same that there are no fundamental conflicts between the United States and China uh it seems that President Trump uh is pursuing that approach which would Mark A a dramatic change of American foreign policy a fundamental change I would say that is a break with the last 33 years 33 years why because when the Soviet Union ended in December 1991 uh the neocons the uh Believers in the United States in the unipolar world
that America and its unique military Financial economic technological power in their minds meant that the United States ran the world I we should always be cautious and careful uh when we're analyzing these events but I have to say I hope I'm not just getting swept up in it it seems pretty momentous what's happening right now it seems more than the new cycle or the spin cycle what has happened in the last few days is President Trump has respectfully spoken with President Putin and said the United States does not aim to run the world or to
damage Russia's security uh the United States government has acknowledged that NATO will not expand to Ukraine and to Georgia which was part of a 30-year uh game played by the United States very dangerous and uh and violent game uh and more than that it it was not only uh picking up the phone or having a discussion or having a meeting in Riad but actually a rather uh impressive it seems move to normal relations a restoration of economic relations a uh a as you said a new chapter we hope and pray uh for a stability of
the nuclear arms framework president Trump made remarkable statements brief statements but remarkable statements about three-way negotiations of Russia China and the United States to reduce nuclear arms to uh avoid an extraordinarily dangerous and costly quote modernization of nuclear Arsenal there was another extraordinary statement by uh by by uh President Putin's spokesperson Mr pesov who said uh our concern is not about uh Ukraine joining the European Union Our concern is about military security NATO this is quite different extraordinary such a statement so clear uh so of course extraordinary in in the context that it's so rational
I i' I've always believed that I I've always said that Europe's greatest mistake was to Cate Co collocate NATO and the European Union in the same city uh almost an accident by the way when NATO headquarters left Paris shouldn't have gone to Brussels but increasingly NATO and the EU became the same thing to Europe's devastating consequence because Europe lost its foreign policy lost its autonomy lost its sense lost its voice doesn't understand what's going on and when you ask me I'm here in Brussels I was at the European Parliament yesterday there is so much confusion
in Europe because it's been years and years and years in which Europe simply gave away its foreign policy so they don't have diplomacy they don't know how to have diplomacy because they're so Rusty at it I I've been saying to European leaders for years go to Moscow talk you're on the same continent your neighbors what are you doing but they don't they warmonger and then uh yesterday our secret AR of Defense heith called for deep and according to the headline numbers truly deep Cuts in the US military this has not happened for decades and immediately
uh our congressmen and Senators jumped up and down because they're on the payrolls of uh or they're funded in their campaigns or their families are funded by the military industrial complex in the United States so so these are all Extraordinary statements now I don't know whether uh the Trump Administration is going to follow that particular logic uh Donald Trump loves oil and gas under the ground this is not where our future lies in the 21st century actually but he he loves it it's not the basis of us uh well-being us prosperity now there is to
put it a different way no shortcut to economic well-being in a knowledge economy except knowledge technology systems thinking uh carefully basing uh decision making on evidence on science and so forth China is extremely good at that uh made in China 2025 which was an initiative launched a decade ago to come to the Forefront of several Technologies succeeded because it was systematic because it had a decade long if not 20 or 30y year long forward vision for the United States to succeed it should do what it absolutely can do we have wonderful universities wonderful research centers
wonderful Enterprises that are investing heavily in research and development building the economy it has nothing to do with war with Russia war with China fights over natural resources it's knowledge capacity organization Science and Technology this is H what we're really talking about right now I think there are also a couple of basic points that are really important for many centuries many recent centuries certainly the 20th century the idea that control over natural resources was the decisive element of economic wealth the military power National greatness was taken for granted and in the uh the petroleum age
especially after Churchill put the British Fleet on oil uh this was the view you have to control the Middle East you have to control the natural resources we're living in an age of course it it may sound trite to say but it's true we're living in an age where it is techn it is advanced technology it is digital Technologies it is a knowledge-based economy that's the source of wealth uh the source of well-being uh and you don't need that physical control over natural resources in the same way at all incidentally the protectionism that that the
Trump Administration is putting in is also beside the point it's it's a little sad it's it's not getting to the point if Trump will play to America's strengths which is it's a deep educational Excellence it's h technological Excellence it's human diversity which is wonderful because I live in New York City I hear English once in a while and I love the fact that 200 languages are spoken it makes it a great City that reaches the entire world and becomes a a a media and financial and technology and diplomatic Capital this is the strengths so it
I think Trump gets a lot of this absolutely right war is useless this isn't about war this is not about conflict and so forth he gets that right and if he can play to America's True strengths this is going to be a golden age exactly what he he wants it to be uh if he plays to uh you know the short-term gimmicks that thinking grab resources or or you know somehow protectionism or something else it it it it will not quite work the same way there's so many interesting things to say about uh Chinese statecraft
and about us China relations uh one place to start is that uh president Trump said yesterday or the day before uh this Ukraine war it's not not about uh we shouldn't be doing this we have this big beautiful ocean between us and the Russians we're not in conflict with you with with each other well the Pacific Ocean is a lot bigger China cannot is not not in a million years going to invade the United States and the US can't invade and defeat China it's very simple the two if we're misguided could provoke each other uh
the United States could do in East Asia what it did in Ukraine uh the obvious obvious analogy is Taiwan uh if the United States continues to provoke to unilaterally arm Taiwan this could trigger War the war would be devastating for the world but devastating for the United States as every war game has shown and as makes sense you fight a war against China thousands of miles away from your Shores you think that's going to work in this day and age with new technologies with the Hypersonic missile systems attacking your naval fleets with uh with the
continual uh space surveillance of the oceans and so on come on this is so ridiculous the even the idea is absurd now that's one point