So, what if I told you that Japan, a country with just 2% of the world's population, could disrupt the entire world? Japan's government has released growth data for the first quarter of this year. And the numbers show the economy has taken a step back.
Japan's uh three biggest names in the auto industry announced disappointing numbers for the last quarter of the business year, and they're warning of rough waters ahead. Rice prices in Japan remain stubbornly high. Consumers are struggling to put food on tables and retailers to put products on shelves at affordable prices.
The government has been trying to fix the problem with limited success. Now, you probably don't spend a lot of time thinking about Japan's economy, and most people don't. It's on the other side of the world, and it's not in the headlines all the time like the US or China.
But the reality is that Japan could increase interest rates in your country, crash stock portfolios all over the world, and potentially even trigger the next global recession. Because Japan is not just another country. It is one of the biggest creditors on Earth.
It holds over a trillion dollars in US government debt. And for decades, it's been the engine that powered some of the world's riskiest financial bets through something called the yen carry trade. And the yen is one of the most important currencies in the world.
And it's also getting stronger. Now, that sounds like a good thing, but it's actually not. And we found out why it's not last year in 2024.
That's when we saw the carry trade unwind, which led to a quick spike in the yen, which led to a flash crash in Japanese stocks and a ripple effect that hit everything from US stocks to Bitcoin and more. Now, at the time, the Bank of JP Morgan was warning that the carry trade unwind was only halfway done. And now, in 2025, that unwinding is continuing.
The Japanese government bonds are collapsing in value. Long-term interest rates are going up and bond auctions are failing. And because of that, we're seeing this slow motion unwinding of trillions of dollars in global leverage.
And investors are starting to feel a little scared. But the thing about this story is that it's not just the story about Japan. It's a story about the end of an era.
The era of easy money. And as Lyn Alden puts it, when the global debt is this high and the demographics this broken, there's really only one way out. Currency devaluation and the gradual realization that nothing stops this train.
Now, once that happens, money starts to look for other places to go like scarce decentralized hard assets that can't be inflated away. So, in today's video, I want to explain exactly what's going on behind the scenes, why it all matters, how it's all connected, and how I'm personally investing. So, with that said, let's get into it.
Hi, my name is Andre Jick. Hope you're doing well. Come for the finance and stay for Japan.
Now, before we get into the super interesting details, let me first talk about something that rarely gets talked about, which is demographics. Now, demographics explain the age structure of a country. like who's working for the money, who's spending it, and who's retiring with it because there has to be a balance.
Now, when you get less young people in a country, you get a smaller workforce, slower economic growth, lower tax revenue, and at the same time, the cost of things like health care and retirement go up. In other words, if a country has bad demographics, they will probably have a bad or a weak economy. Now, Japan happens to be the oldest country in the world.
About 30% of its population is over the age of 65. Its birth rate has been below replacement for decades, and it's been getting smaller since 2008. And by 2050, they're estimating that Japan is going to lose around 20 million people, which is the equivalent of about everyone in Florida.
The aging crisis doesn't just affect retirements and hospitals. It affects the entire economy. That's because less workers means less growth.
More retirees means more government spending. You get the idea. The only way to keep that kind of a system running is to borrow money.
Which is why Japan now has the highest what's called debt to GDP ratio in the developed world, which is over 260% and it keeps going up. And for years, Japan has gotten away with that. the government could just borrow trillions without any consequences because Japan also had their interest rates at basically zero.
And because the Bank of Japan was willing to buy up half the bond market, but Japanese investors still wanted to make a return on their borrowed money, they wanted to park that money somewhere. So, they bought US assets, which is why Japan became the biggest foreign holder of US treasuries. But now in 2025, that balance is starting to break.
The Bank of Japan is walking away and all of that debt is starting to make a huge difference. So the question is, why does Japan's economy matter if maybe I live in another country? And let me explain why it should matter so much to the entire world and why the market around the world was actually benefiting from Japan all along, whether we knew it or not.
Because for decades, Japan has been the world's biggest what's called creditor nation. It holds over $3 trillion in net foreign assets, and it's the top holder of US Treasury bonds with over a trillion in US government debt as of 2025. And it's not just bonds.
Japanese institutions also owned US stocks, corporate debt, and even real estate. All the money that was leaving Japan has actually helped finance deficits, help asset prices, and lower interest rates in the US and all around the world. And the reason Japan could do that, the reason it had so much spare money to send overseas comes down to one thing.
Interest rates were stuck at zero. This created one of the most important financial cheat codes of the last 30 years. It's called the yen carry trade.
Here's how it works. Investors, hedge funds, and big institutions borrow money in Japanese yen at ultra- low interest rates. Then they convert that yen into dollars, euros, or other higher yielding currencies.
And then they invest that money into assets overseas. And that could be anything from US stocks, emerging markets, bonds, crypto, real estate, you name it. Now the difference between Japan's almost zero borrowing cost and the higher return almost anywhere else becomes free profit.
Multiply that by billions or even trillions and you start to see why this trade has been called the global money glitch. For example, in 2023, US interest rates were over 5%. while Japan's interest rates were still negative and that created a huge incentive to borrow cheap yen, buy US assets, and make the spread.
At its peak, Bloomberg estimated that carry trades involving the yen had reached hundreds of billions of dollars globally. But here's the catch. This only works as long as Japan's interest rates stay low and the yen stays weak.
If the yen gets stronger or if Japanese interest rates or yields go up, the trade starts to break. Borrowing becomes expensive and then currency losses start to go up and all those investors have to sell their US assets to cover the damage. And that's exactly what started to happen in 2024.
The Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time in decades. The yen went up more than 10% in just a couple weeks. And what followed was pretty bad.
Japan's market lost a ton of money in just 3 days. US stocks sold off. Bitcoin went down and JP Morgan was warning that the unwind had only just started.
People are like this carry trade which seemed like the easy trade is no longer. So you start exiting fast and it starts to be self-fulfilling. Unwinds and unwinds and unwinds.
Now in 2025, the Bank of Japan is still tightening. Japanese bond yields are going up and the yen is starting to get stronger, which means trillions of dollars in global leverage are again at risk of unraveling one margin call at a time. And now for the first time in decades, Japan may not just stop buying US treasuries, they might start selling them.
And that brings me to what's happening in Japan's bond market right now, which is not good. In May 2025, the yields or interest rates on their 30-year government bonds hit over 3%. The 40-year bonds are at 3.
6%, an all-time high. And that might not sound like a lot if you're used to US interest rates, but for Japan, this is historic. These are supposed to be the safest, most stable bonds in the country.
And now investors want a huge premium just to hold them. In other words, they want more interest. Why?
Because their trust is fading. Japan's debt to GDP again is 250%. And for years, the only reason that didn't cause a crisis was because the Bank of Japan could print money to buy up those bonds.
That works until it doesn't. And now that the Bank of Japan is backing off, the market is testing what their bonds are really worth organically without that artificial government demand. And what the whole world just saw are failed bond auctions.
Investors are not bidding what they're worth. So how do you get those people to buy up those bonds? You raise the interest rate.
It's the only way. By doing that though, you break the carry trade and we're seeing some of those effects kind of spill over into other parts of the market. Enter MetaPlanet for example.
Metlanet is a very popular publicly traded company in Japan. They own thousands of Bitcoin and over the last few weeks that stock has exploded mostly because investors are treating it as kind of a a nuclear hedge against Japan's bond market collapse. Why that matters though is because as Japanese interest rates go up and their yen gets stronger, there's shorts that are placed on Metaplanet and Bitcoin related strategies and those started to see huge losses.
So what we saw was kind of a short squeeze when people lose trust in the government's ability to manage their debt when they see their long-term bonds, which are supposed to be boring and safe acting like volatile tech stocks, then people start to question the entire system. And in Japan, some of that money is moving into Bitcoin, not necessarily directly, but through companies like Metaplanet and Michael Sailor Strategy. But what I really think this strategy is about for them is a move away from assets that are controlled by central banks towards assets that are finite, decentralized, and immune to yield curve manipulation.
Now, I'm not saying that Bitcoin is going to replace the yen or anything like that, but what I am saying is it shows you just how fast emotions can change when a country's safest asset starts to get a little wobbly. Because if Japan's bonds are not as safe as they used to be and the central bank is out of ammo, what's Japan supposed to do? Now, before we keep going though, let me just zoom out for a second because everything I talk about on my channel is from interest rates to inflation to investing.
But it really comes down to one thing, financial freedom. And a huge part of that is understanding how credit works and how to build it in a smart, sustainable way. That's actually why I wanted to mention Kickoff.
It's one of the simplest tools I've seen for helping people build credit over time. It's not a loan, not a credit card, and there's no interest or hidden fees, just a super affordable credit building plan that starts at $5 a month. Kickoff helps by creating a trade line and shows up on your credit profile and as long as you make on-time monthly payments, they get reported to all three major credit bureaus.
And that can help improve key credit factors like payment history and utilization. Some Kickoff users who started with a credit under 600 and made on-time payments saw an average increase of about 25 points in their first month and up to 84 points after their first year. Right now, they're offering 80% off your first month.
And that's as little as $1 to get started. If you use my link down below, get kickoff. com/andre.
So, if you're serious about building a stronger financial foundation and you want something that's easy to manage and doesn't feel predatory, definitely check it out. Thanks to Kickoff for partnering with this video. And now, let's get back to it.
So, besides the yen carry trade coming to an end potentially, there's a second idea people are really scared of, which is what if Japan starts selling US treasuries? Remember, Japan is the biggest holder of US government debt with over a trillion dollars. And for years, that has actually helped keep US interest rates low and help support our huge government spending.
But now, some Japanese institutions have already started pulling back from foreign bonds, which includes buying US treasuries. As Japanese interest rates go up and the yen starts to get stronger, it gets more expensive to borrow. So instead of borrowing money, that money is just going to stay at home.
And if that trend continues, the US could actually lose one of its biggest lenders. And that would mean huge borrowing costs here in the US for consumers and more pressure on the Fed and even more volatility in the bond market. And you could start to see a world where interest rates in the US actually go up, not because of inflation, but because creditors just don't show up to the auction.
Even the Japanese finance minister said recently their US Treasury holdings could be used as leverage in trade talks. Now he then later was like just kidding. But it shows you that it's actually a real possibility.
For now the Bank of Japan is under a lot of pressure. They have over 1. 3 quadrillion yen or 260% of GDP.
That means even a small increase in interest rates could have a huge consequence. If Japan's interest rate goes up by 1% for example, that alone would add about 13 trillion yen or 85 billion dollar in yearly interest payments. That's more than what Japan spends on its entire defense budget for the entire year.
So besides selling US treasuries, then Japan has two options and none of them are good. Option number one, raise interest rates to fight inflation and protect their currency. But that risks blowing up the government's budget.
It's like having a giant mortgage at a super low interest rate. And if that rate jumps even just a little, the monthly payment goes up and you just can't afford to pay it anymore. Or option two, keep interest rates low so the government can keep borrowing, but that lets the value of the yen fall and when the yen gets weaker, the cost of importing stuff gets a lot more expensive.
So, it's like having a low interest rate on your credit card, but every time you go shopping, everything costs more than it did last week, and the cost of living goes way up. So, remember, the Bank of Japan already owns over 50% of the entire bond market, and they've been printing money for years just to keep that system going. But even with all of that control, it's not working as good anymore.
Bond auctions are failing and investors are walking away. They're asking for a higher interest to take on all of this economic risk. So, Japan is asking a question that no government wants to ask, which is how much longer can we pretend that this is sustainable?
Cuz once you build a whole economy around cheap money, the moment you try to raise interest rates, the economy starts to break. And here's where I'm going to tie everything together because this is where it gets really interesting. Because while all of this is playing out and Japan's bond market is breaking, interest payments are exploding, global debt is rising, inflation is creeping in, Bitcoin quietly reached an all-time high, and no one even noticed.
Google searches are still extremely low, all things considering. Now, obviously, it's not just one thing. Bitcoin moves for a lot of different reasons, like ETFs having cycles and businesses and states and countries buying it.
But you can't ignore the big picture. The world is waking up to this idea that maybe those crazy Bitcoiners and what they've been saying since the beginning might actually be true, which is that this debt based system might not be sustainable in the long term. And Japan is just one example.
The US is not that far behind. And in both cases, the question becomes, how do you escape a system that only works when interest rates are close to zero? And the answer seems to be you can't.
There is no way out. Deep down, the market is starting to price in this idea that governments are not going to be able to grow their way out of this. They're not going to be able to raise taxes fast enough and they will not cut spending because politicians just don't want to.
None of them have the courage to face the public. And at the same time, we don't want to default. We don't want to not pay.
The show must go on. So, what's left? Facing the consequences, getting a credit downgrade, and inflating away the debt, devaluing the currency.
Extend and pretend that everything is fine. And that's what Lyn Alden meant with nothing stops this train. And if that's the direction we're going, even if it's slow, then it makes sense why people are buying things like Bitcoin, because it's outside the system.
It's finite. It doesn't care about bond auctions. It doesn't care about tariffs.
can't be printed into oblivion. And that's why I've been making it such a big part of my personal investment strategy. Again, I've been dollar cost averaging into it for a long time because this story makes a lot of sense to me and I have no idea what my sell price is.
I don't really have one. And the truth is part of me really wants to take a big part of my stock portfolio and convert it into Bitcoin. But I don't think I'd sleep as comfortably.
So, I'm holding on to my stocks because even if all of this is wrong, then I can still rely on stocks to get me to retirement because that's what data shows works in the long term. I'm staying invested regardless of what happens, though. But I did find this to be a really interesting story.
I've got time to see how all of this plays out, but I'd love to hear your thoughts. As always, I hope you have a wonderful rest of your day. Smash the like button, subscribe if you haven't already.
I'd love to see you back here next week. I'll see you soon. Bye-bye.
