hey everyone and thanks foring back into the cryptoverse today we're going to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to be providing an update to the bull market support band if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on into the crypto premium at intothe cryptoverse docomo is actually a fairly interesting weekly close for Bitcoin I believe it's the first time Bitcoin has closed below the bull market sportband on a weekly close that wasn't in the third quarter of the year
for instance at least this cycle if you look at last year there were some closes below it but it was all in the third quarter of the year the cycle before right this was mostly just the third quarter of the year maybe early October but really the third quarter there had been some Wicks below the 20we SMA in other times but never really really a weekly close below it so this is deviating from what we have seen in the past right this is a different Trend that we've seen and we talked some about you know
markets drisking on the other side of inauguration because of the pricing in of perfection if you will one of the things that we have discussed is this running oneyear Roi and you can see that because bitco coin was unable to start really moving in February and March the one-ear ROI is starting to Decay a lot which is really different than what happened in 2017 right in 2017 the one-year Roi continued to go up in January and February and March whereas this cycle it's actually been going down now what's really interesting when you look at at
the cycle Roi of Bitcoin if you just go look at at the ROI from the low uh if I could find it if you look at the ROI from the low and compare this cycle to the 2016 cycle we have seen Bitcoin now fall below it now this always makes sense because of the idea of diminishing returns now if you measure it from the peak and you go Peak to Peak and look at this cycle compared to the 2016 cycle the current cycle is actually still outperforming the 2016 to 2017 cycle at this point in
the 2016 to 2017 cycle Bitcoin was actually at its prior all-time high you can see this right the the peak Roi if you look on the screen right here the peak Roi uh or Peak to Peak it was at one whereas right now in this cycle it's 1.29 so what I'm suggesting is that Bitcoin could go as low as 69k the price the Peak from the prior cycle in the short term and it would still be tracking the 2016 to 2017 cycle in fact if you look at Bitcoin in early 2017 one of the things
it actually did was it tested the 2016 high in January now it also saw some weakness in March as well right there was weakness in January and then there was weakness again in March now the March weakness back in 2017 um is something we're also seeing this cycle but we called for this right we said look between February options expiration and March options expiration the S&P 500 is likely going to experience a lot of weakness and because of that we'll likely see Bitcoin experience weakness too if you look at the year-to date Roi of Bitcoin
in 2025 compared to 2017 you can see there was weakness in January and then there was weakness in March the main difference between this year and 2017 is that at least in 2017 there was some strength in February whereas we didn't really get any strength in February this time so this was always a period of weakness for Bitcoin right I mean not maybe not always but the the stock market generally is weak in the early part of post elction years right if you just look at the year-to-date Roi of the S&P 500 in you know
2025 and compare it to the average of all prior pre postelection years going back to 1928 you know it's kind of a weak time for the stock market now obviously there's recession fears right you have the Atlanta fed you know forecasting negative GDP but at the end of the day you know it's it's generally a week time for stocks and and if it's week time for stocks it's usually going to be we a week time for Bitcoin you know I mean if you look at Bitcoin we can we can come up with all sorts of
narratives but the most likely explanation for why is Bitcoin down is because the stock market is down and you have to remember that the stock market has essentially given back all of its postelection results gains from back in early November and Bitcoin has not yet done that but if it did it would involve going back to around 68 to 69k which is the prior all-time high which again Peak to Peak Roi was where the 2016 2017 cycle was at this point in the cycle now I have said that you really don't want to see Bitcoin
go below 70k if it does there's a good chance that that the the peak is already in for the cycle if you look at what happened in 2017 when it tested the 2016 High it actually Wicked below it a little bit right about 5% below it this cycle 5% below the 20 24 high would actually be right around 69k which is again the prior all-time high from the prior cycle so I would say you know if you had a wick to 69k and that was it and then Bitcoin started to look constructive again further out
into the year then there's still a chance that you get that right translated cycle what I would not want to see for Bitcoin I would not want to see it go down here right if it goes down to the low 60s like 62 to 63k where it basically back tests this trend line if it goes that low then I would argue that you would get a big bounce but it would probably be a macro lower high and the cycle would be over if it can sort of hold above 73k or even just a small Wick
below it and then we can get back to more favorable times out in you know other other months but again the the January to March and post selection years really isn't that great for stocks so once you get out into April it it can generally pick up a little bit um then I think you would see A Renewed renewed interest now whether it leads to alltime high or not or it's just a counter terminality to a lower high I think depends on how low Bitcoin goes before we get out of this window of weakness right
so basically the idea is that bitcoin's in a window of weakness until March options expiration and I mean it it could theoretically extend into early April to the labor to the labor market print but it's in this window of weakness I think for at least the next two weeks and how low Bitcoin goes in those two weeks will probably dictate whether it's a right translated cycle or a left translated cycle and I can come up with all sorts of evidence for either case you know um but again I I think it's going to dictate how
low it goes will dictate whether the Cycle's over or not low 60s not good a wick below 73k is still okay but it needs to just be a wick so if you if you want to operate deterministically which is pretty dangerous to do then that's at least how I would operate deterministically in that sense right you know 60 the low 60s probably the Cycle's over a little Below 73k on a wick still business as usual um and it's easy I mean we've talked a lot about left translated Cycles right we did a whole this whole
video on the QQQ comparison and you know I know that it's it's kind of a scary chart and I I only put it in front of you because I imagine someone wished in in 2000 you know and in in 2000 I I I wonder I I bet you people wish that someone had showed them that that was going to be the top right 54 weeks after the ETF launch for the QQQ and and then you basically had a long Wick down and then the next week you had a big candle body down this here occurred
that drop occurred in April for Bitcoin this was a little bit of a deviation right because I mean this second drop right you had sort of long Wick down but the second drop wasn't it didn't actually overtake the wick whereas with the QQQ it did overtake the wick back then so again we've talked about you know you want to see a Divergence so that doesn't necess play out the same way this is this shows you what a macro lower high would look like right a long Wick down this actually went to 63 and then a
multi-month counter Trend rally to a lower high into a into a recession right so so you look for those deviations to see does it change unfortunately there still is a window of weakness for Bitcoin at least for the next couple of weeks and so it doesn't mean this can't happen it could still be in front of us so that's what I'm thinking right now W with with with regards to bitcoin you know it's in the low 80s uh if it can if it could get through the rest of the month in the low 80s then
I would probably Bode pretty well but still a couple of weeks to go and you know this is the first drop here below the bull Mark pen if I weren't looking at at really any other asset class and I was just trying to figure out what does this look the most like to me what it looks the most like to me especially through the lens of monetary policy is what happened right here where you had sort of a drop down and then it kind of Consolidated for a while and then went back up to a
lower high consolidate a little bit more and then and then you can kind of ultimately see what the cycle did the reason why kind of feels like that to me is because if you look at ethereum and you look at at sort of the this higher low rally back in 2019 and compare it to this higher low rally this cycle all by the way during quantitative tightening this was right if you look here this was during quantitative tightening and then this was during quantitative tightening it looks like e is is sort of breaking down right
now right sort of how it broke down back then and during this breakdown by eth back then it sort of was just before the the end of quantitative tightening that's when Bitcoin got this drop below its bull market support band and you can even see back then especially if you look at it without the Wicks and stuff you just look at like sort of a line chart this double top there kind of looks like this double top right here right and then it goes back down and then it gets this drop below the bull Mark
spit band goes back up into a lower high and then a lower low and then you sort of get your pre-recession rally and then the recession hit so I'm kind of like viewing it through that lens at the current time um but I just want to give a few thoughts I'm not going to go on and on I mean you know obviously a drop below the bullmark sportan isn't really that great for Bitcoin because now it has to do a lot of work just to get above it and right now the 20we SMA is all
the way up at 93.5k basically 21 em is a little bit lower at 88.7 but still I mean Bitcoin would have a lot of work to do just to get back up to those levels and um so certainly it it has entered into this sort of this window of weakness that we've talked about between February options expiration and March options expiration I mean I think the most likely answer for why is Bitcoin down is is just because the S&P is down um if anything Bitcoin has been holding up better than the S&P because the S&P
is giving back all its prior uh or it's all all its post selection result gains whereas Bitcoin hasn't doesn't mean Bitcoin won't it just means that Bitcoin likes to hold on for as long as possible until it can't possibly hold on any longer and then it'll get larger drops um than other parts of the market like the S&P because well the S&P already had that drop those are my views guys we're going to wrap it up there thank you for tuning in make sure you subscribe give the video a thumbs up and again check out
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