joined by national political correspondent Steve coraki Steve break it all down for us two days until the debate where do things stand yeah Christian two days before this debate this is what you're looking at in the seven core Battleground States you are seeing raiser thin contest here you see less than a point less than a point one point seven Battleground States here that we think are likely to decide the Electoral College the road to 270 now take a closer look here and there are a couple things we want to drive your draw your attention to
First you do notice there's one state here Wisconsin where the margin does seem larger than the others put a pin in that because we're going to get to that in one second but the other aspect here when you look at these closed races particularly in the sun Bel States it reflects how this race has changed a little bit since kamla Harris replaced Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate what we're going to show you here this is the diversity of the electorates in these seven core Battleground States white and non-white and you can see nationally this
is what the electorate looks like these three states Nevada North Carolina and Georgia you see the share of the electorate that's white is actually lower in these three states than it is nationally the share of the electorate that is non-white is actually higher one of the things that has happened since kamla Harris replaced Joe Biden is that Biden had been struggling relative to how Democrats historically do with Hispanic voters with black voters with non-white voters Harris has improved Biden's on Biden standing with those voters she's not at the levels that Democrats have typically run at
in the past but she's improved and so when we just showed you those close margins in these states here that's the source of Harris's Improvement these states are looking more promising for her than they were for Joe Biden but again she's not at the level Democrats typically get with non-white voters that's something her campaign is looking at trying to boost and trying to improve the other end of it though is this look at the states here Wisconsin Michigan and penil with the highest shares of white voters specifically here we're going to look at Blue Collar
white voters white voters who don't have four-year degrees and again you see the national average here 35% look where Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania are in their electorates the key here is remember we just showed you that poll that had Harris up by five and a half on average the average poll in Wisconsin well Wisconsin has the highest share of non-oled white voters these are the voters the polls missed on in 2020 missed on in 2016 they undercounted the polls did Trump's support with blue collar white voters so when you see polls this fall particularly in
a state like Wisconsin I think you put a little bit of an asterisk next to it because we saw big misses there before and the question is are we seeing misses there again is Trump perhaps being undercounted in those States again but again two days into this debate Kristen the big issues that you're likely to come up here just take a look from a Wall Street Journal poll where the two candidates stand here in terms of the Public's view Harris with an advantage on abortion of 20 points she's made this a centerpiece for a long
time now economy immigration the Israel Hamas War these are all Trump advantages over Harris although Harris doing a little bit better on some of these questions again than Biden had but not where her campaign would like her to be Kristen thanks for watching stay updated about breaking news and top stories on the NBC News app or follow us on social media
