it's all very combustible isn't it huge violence in the Middle East and an American election about to happen two questions then does the election affect the conflict in the Middle East and does the conflict affect the election in America those two questions of course both hugely important both hugely complex and the answer to each of them can be yes or no so they don't necessarily cancel each other out but there's no question at all that what is happening in the Middle East matters in America and what happens in America Matters in the Middle East welcome
to americast americast americast from BBC News hello it's Sarah and I'm in the BBC's Bureau in Washington DC and it's Justin in the worldwide headquarters of America asked in London England it's such a big question isn't it Justin whether or not the American election is affecting the events in the Middle East and vice versa whether they will affect the outcome of the election and a fascinating one I think because we often say that foreign policy doesn't really impact on us elections but I wonder if this is creating enough background noise that it will get into
people's heads I don't think anyone's going to go to The Ballot Box thinking you know I do or do not agree with the administration's policy on precisely the two State solution between Israel and Palestine but I do think it creates an an atmosphere that will will influence people's thinking yeah so if we're answering that question first do events in the Middle East affect the American election before we get to looking at the other way around um I I I think they do I mean the classic sort of conventional answer is they don't because Americans don't
care about abroad very much uh and very few Americans let's be frank would be able to Place Lebanon on a map um although of course as we've discussed before in certain key States like Michigan uh people are very well well able to place those places on a map because they come from there uh and that that will matter a bit but but Brit large I think the danger actually for kamla Harris is that there is a just a sense of added chaos there was already frankly a sense of chaos wasn't there around the world but
a sense of added chaos and Jeopardy which plays into particularly frankly lwi information voters thinking oh Donald Trump tells me that he can stop the chaos with a phone call as he literally done uh and he can ring whoever someone in Iran and threaten them personally and that'll be the end of the matter um and and those sorts of Voters may be more persuaded I suppose to turn out and vote for him um uh in these circumstances they would in other circumstances to be honest I think it's marginal Sarah I I I don't I mean
I I just think you can make too much of it because actually most people will be voting on the economy and on immigration and all the things we've talked about adium but it just on on the margins and the margins matter this year it it could have an impact yeah because as we keep saying this election is going to be one or lost in the margins because it is so very very tight and particularly in the key swing states that will affect the outcome um and so I think you've put your finger on it Justin
very very well there are people who care deeply about this you'll remember the student protest we talked about a lot earlier this year from Pro Palestinian um undergraduates very very upset about what was going on in Gaza there's obviously a big Community who um care very deeply about is Israel as well and that um stays Joe Biden's hand a bit sometimes on How firm it can be with Israel but it's this sense I think not just of Chaos in the world but how America projects its image and Donald Trump is very much the strong man
even the bully who'll be there on the world stage sorting things out in America's interest and because the Israeli government really do seem to be not just ignoring but defying uh American advice from the Biden administration at the moment it looks weaker and there are people who just The Vibes as we've talked about before in the selection just don't like the idea that America is less of a global presence than it used to be and I think it maybe this feeds into that sense yeah I mean she's had this line hasn't she CA Harris which
I I know some people on the Progressive left have been a bit nervous about where she I can't remember exactly what the word is she's talked about America's military and it's and its might uh in a way that's made some people on the on the Progressive left of American policy don't much like theer idea of American Military might a bit nervy in the past as commander and chief I will ensure America always has the strongest most lethal fighting force in the world and I will fulfill our sacred obligation to care for our troops and their
families and I will always honor and never disparage their service and their sacrifice I just think for her you know the problem for her frankly and we've talked about this as well is she's just not out there she's doing rallies kind of setpiece speeches but it it may mean that and and the events in the Middle East May mean that she has to be a bit gutsier actually about putting herself about doing interviews where she's ask about these things and actually giving detailed answers potentially and here's the point Sarah I wonder potentially take her away
from the Biden Administration and kind of forge her own line so that people can think you know this is a a strong America she has definite principles that she'll adhere to she's willing to knock heads together um and she's and she's got a plan and I I I I just think that at the moment you you don't you know we're asking about a bit about about Biden we're asking about Trump uh and it's fair to say that that you know it's unclear what Trump would do except exactly as you say this kind of strong guy
image but with CA Harris it just seems to me she's she this is a challenge to her to get out and tell Americans what would happen in the Middle East as elsewhere under her Administration it's doubly important I think because the audition to become commander-in-chief of the United States of America is tougher for a female candidate just is there's never been a female president some people still have a problem wondering how a woman would sit in the situation room and control something like this um I'm fascinated though when you say talk about her mentioning America's
military might this is something that's been turned on its head in America now just like the way the Democrats and Republicans have changed you know who the working class and the the upper middle class support it's Democrats who are interested in using America's military weight around the world and intervening in conflicts and rep an who recoil from the idea of being involved in anything overseas anymore it's very true uh and it's also the case isn't it that we've got weeks to go and we don't know how this is going to pan out and there are
all sorts of things particularly I suppose the threat from Iran of international terrorism how that plays in and I wonder in those circumstances whether it's still plays to Trump as we've been kind of suggesting the strong guy image or actually whether his kind of chaotic approach to International Affairs um makes people frightened that they don't want to go back there in other words I think the net effect might not be huge might it because there are actually arguments you could have in both directions yeah and you bring up one of the rare American elections I
think where we can point to Foreign Affairs having a significant impact that 2004 election coming of course just three years after the 91 attacks in a in a very heightened sense of of Terror if there were God forbid to be something like that um happen I think it would be such a testing moment for each candidate they would have to rise to that moment and exactly how they did how they responded would probably have a significant impact on on what the result would be and with Donald Trump it's just very difficult to say with CA
Harris would she be able to stand up and and articulate cleanly quickly and firmly exactly what America's um response was going to be and also reassure people at home that would be an enormous test the last time there was a significant effect on American politics of Foreign Affairs the last time it affected the outcome of an election I think Was 1980 wasn't it Justin when Jimmy Carter was running for reelection and you know back to Iran the Iranian hostage Siege was what did for him with the steady unraveling of authority in Iran and the mounting
dangers that were posed to the safety of the hostages themselves and the growing realization that their early release was highly unlikely I made a decision to commence a rescue operation operation's plans it was my decision to attempt the rescue operation it was my decision to cancel it when problems developed in the placement of our Rescue Team for a future rescue operation the responsibility is fully my own yeah yeah and and you can see situations where once again if it becomes a conflict that that involves the US and Iran uh either very closely up against each
other or even in some sort of form of conflict where that actually changes the whole dimension of the thing and and further complicates and and and and frightens actually Americans into possibly this election um becoming a more Foreign Affairs election there's a much larger group though Justin I think it's worth um reminding our americs about is um Evangelical Christians um here in the US who really strongly support Israel it's not just that there's a large Jewish population and a large Jewish vote uh who who want the American Administration to be backing Israel as much as
possible massive amount of uh Christian voters also really really solidly identify with Israel and that's one of the reasons why the room for maneuver is really quite difficult for Democratic politicians in this we've talked a lot about the um Pro Palestinian protesters they're very Noy C but they're a fraction of the number of Voters that there are who would be easily upset if they thought that the US was backing away from full support of Israel yeah it's a really interesting point that because it's you could take it even further couldn't you not just evangelicals and
and obviously Jewish voters themselves have an interest in Israel a knowledge of of Israel but actually for for Americans more generally what has been going on in Gaza has made them queasy um and and and made them Wonder about the justice of it all but actually if this becomes a a fight between Israel and Iran either metaphorically or in reality then I think for a lot of Americans then it becomes a much easier Choice doesn't it that Israel is a democracy it's it's an ally of the United States Iran very obviously has done enormous harm
to large numbers of of people not least in Syria where it's backed Assad um a and has forment terrorism around the world according to the American government and the British government as well so you know when you're when you're picking a kind of good guy and a bad guy to put it in those terms I think for a lot of Americans actually if this becomes a conflict that involves Iran I just wonder if the choice is is a bit simpler oh much much simpler Iran is for many people the number one enemy I mean China's
probably the number one competitor or opponent but Iran is in the enemy camp um you know possibly only with um North Korea matching it even even Russia there's a sense that you know you have to do business with them but but no Iran is considered Toxic by many many voters so that would be incredibly simple and what side you take there without the complications of what's being going on in Gaza uh that would be much much easier but of course that's a situation in which America then would find it even harder to constrain Israel's actions
if they were worried about this conflict spiraling wildly out of control once it if it becomes um Israel Iran then yeah all bets are off in terms of the Americans asking Israel to hold back okay folks I'm wearing a tie today which is unusual but I'm doing it in part at least because we are joined by uh royalty really Christian anore is the chief International anchor of CNN she's joined us before and told us things that are deeply fascinating but I'm also personally in a of her because I've worked alongside her in the past I
wouldn't say quite to her level when it comes to working in the field but I've certainly known her uh when she used to go around and Dodge bullets does the the American election have an impact on thinking in the region uh in the widest sense does it have an impact because we keep talking about whether it has an impact on the American election whether war in the Middle East has an impact on the American election and obviously there are there are certain kind of small places uh both geographical and intellectual where it might but there's
plenty of Americans will take no notice of it at all but I'm just wondering the other way around is there an impact it's it's difficult to say Obviously all the candidates are going to use what's happening in the Middle East and in American foreign policy to beat each other up clearly the real question is is America having an impact on what's going on particularly this close to an election and often as you as you know because you've covered uh in election Cycles it's often a sort of a lame duck period either there's a gigantic so-called
October surprise which one candidate or the other thinks serves their purpose or there's a kind of l a fair attitude Do no harm well as all this harm or however you want to describe it is going on in the in the Middle East um many are saying in so many words that the US Administration is awall awall when it comes to diplomacy awall when it comes to actual impact on the players in the region and really the biggest impact that America can have is on its most close Ally which is Israel and I have the
Lebanese prime minister foreign minister rather telling me uh just this week that just before nasrala was assassinated he had got they had got Hezbollah to agree to a ceasefire and and then clearly Netanyahu didn't want any part of it and as he understood that there was potentially a ceasefire he uh nonetheless gave his address to the UN saying that he had ordered um the IDF to keep fighting and to keep reaching its targets and then nalo was killed and that's launched this wave of escalation Christian I mean as you're describing the Israelis have practically been
humiliating Joe Biden and his administration when it comes to the diplomacy around this just basically refusing to do what America is urging them to even as America is continuing to supply them with the weapons and the military aid to allow them to prosecute these um campaigns I'm really interested to know whether you think that the the particular peculiar timing of now is one of the reasons why so you've got Joe Biden essentially a lame duck president not running for office again managing not to have very much influence on Netanyahu but of course they must be
thinking in the Israeli government about who's going to come in next Donald Trump might be more sympathetic but he's unpredictable who knows carel Harris might take a different path is there a window now between now and when the next president's sworn in at the end of January where Israel has a freedom to operate that it won't after there's a new president do you know because this has been going on for a year now a year before an American election this same pattern has been going on viav Israel or the Netanyahu government and the administration the
administration says don't do X and the Netanyahu government sort of pretends to say okay and then does it let's just take the invasion of Rafa you remember um the Americans said don't invade Rafa they said oh we'll do a limited operation um which has rings of course of Lebanon right now um but then they they did invade Rafa and it's practically you know leveled certainly huge swats of it so look it is clear that Israel is acting in its own interest and what are you hearing from people uh about the pressure that America has been
putting on for the last year for Israel um not to to to take its military actions too far and that must be fairly extreme at the moment it's pretty obvious here in Washington listening to officials in the White House and the state department that they are very much urging Israel not to take action that will provoke a Counterattack Will Will just lead to an escalation further of you a conflict between Iran and Israel everybody's worst nightmare do you get a sense that they're they're treating America's advice differently now as an American official told me yesterday
a former State Department official said America is in the passenger seat period end of story and that is how it's being viewed by elements of the US government those who've resigned in protest of US policy over this uh over this year and those in the rest of the region as well so by and large that is what is the view of the United States ability to affect the Dynamics in the place where it used to be dominant let's face it America's influence in the Middle East was huge and it was always considered to be quote
unquote even by American negotiators Israel's lawyer rather than playing the so-called um evenhanded honest broker even when it came to trying to negotiate um this elusive peace between Israel and the Palestinians so just to say that America provides them with all their weapons provides them with all their ammunition provides them with um the ability to defend themselves and and is clearly you know devoted to that and committed to that this uh former official said to me on my show so she said it publicly there needs to be a huge upsurge in very very intense shuttle
diplomacy and said well that's been going on he said yes but they have to tell Netanyahu that that you know they have to make the cost of defying the United States high and they have not done that so that is that is the the issue right now yeah and on that Christian it's interesting isn't it because Donald Trump I mean there is a range of outcomes with Donald Trump if he's elected president we don't we don't know who his people would be um there are all sorts of of of discussions aren't there about how um
uh personal it could all get how his foreign policy could go in a direction that even in his first term it didn't go um but with kamla Harris it's kind of a bit of a of a blank slate isn't it and Phil Gordon her National Security adviser who I knew well in DC and you will know um always struck me well I mean I mean he is a kind of conservative guy with a small C in the sense that he's he's he's quite cautious about the use of American power but very well-versed in the Middle
East and I just wonder whether there are incremental things that you could imagine her doing and tonal changes and things but from what you hear anything more than that no it's very very hard and nothing they will say nothing to put any light between them and Israel even though it's had an impact on the American people right the American people in particular Democrats Democratic voters are upset with the Biden Administration policy on this this um I don't believe they'll do anything barring some massive escalation that brings Iran into a fullscale war or whatever um before
the election and let's face it you know President Biden is against Foreign Wars president Trump in his time was not involved in Foreign Wars and he keep saying on the campaign TR trail that you know I wouldn't be involved in a foreign war and um I would go back though we know from the asked what his policy towards Israel has been he went to Israel it was part of his first trip abroad Saudi Arabia Israel Etc early 2017 and there he empowered the the far right essentially the benav ideology the smartr ideology remember he practically
handed the occupied West Bank over to them he practically said that go ahead Annex it in fact we don't consider settlements to be a violation of international law as the UN says do you remember all that and then they had to walk a lot of it back um and so you know moved the embassy to uh to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv basically did a whole load of things that previous American administrations refused to do pending a final settlement of the Palestinian Israeli conflict because many of those areas are what the world and Palestinians have set
aside for their set for their state Christian to to to take it back to what impact this might have the American election I'm really interested to hear from you what you think the impact is on American voters I've noticed going around talking to people that Donald Trump's talking points that um America shouldn't be involved in Foreign Wars and shouldn't be the world's policemen funding um other crisis as well is coming through a lot not just from Big Trump supporters it really does seem to have changed Americans Minds about what their responsibilities on the world stage
are so looking at this conflict it's really interesting to try and work at how it might impact the election obviously you've got um some progressives uh who are very very upset about what's happening in Gaza protesting about that refusing to vote for any Democratic candidate but when Joe Biden threatened to withhold some weapons from Israel because they weren't listening to him basically uh over how they were Prosecuting the war in Gaza there was such a backlash from Republicans and Democrats who were essentially fearful of Voters that he had to change his mind quite quickly and
that made him look even more powerless is the biggest risk do you think in American politics for Biden to look as though he's not supporting Israel enough you know it's a risk of course but it can't be attributed or laid at his door because he has stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Netanyahu from day one he went in the immediate aftermath of the savagery of October 7th to Israel he hugged Netanyahu who is no big friend of Democrats let's face it he's come several times to the Congress to speak against Democrat and their policies certainly Obama certainly did
it again now under Biden um and takes to the UN Podium as well to do that Christian you are um as blunt as you always are it's why we love having you on thanks so much real pleasure to talk to you thanks Justin thank you Sarah bye bye bye that's it for this week's episode of Americas thank you very much for joining us as we countdown to the election on November the 5th I hope you'll join us again bye-bye [Music] [Applause] [Music] he [Applause] [Music]
