whenever we look at the pi cycle top indicator for Bitcoin whenever we see the crossover of these two piie cycle moving averages we tend to see a bull market Peak occur as you can see the bull market Peak is nowhere close because these two moving averages are diverging from one another for this Bitcoin P Cycle top indicator update stay tuned subscribe to the channel for more videos like this in the future like this video if you enjoy content like this going forward and let's talk about it in more detail so this is the P Cycle
moving average we see that these two moving averages are diver in but before we talk about the crossover in of itself let's talk about the role that the 111 day moving average the orange one plays in terms of bargain buying opportunities of course in bare Trends or at least pre harving years we tend to see oscillating around this moving average but in harving years for example 2020 this orange moving average tends to act as a support facilitating the uptrends to new all-time highs and after the bull market ends you can see that in a bare
Market we see that this moving average actually acts as a resistance and rejects price until we're once again ready in the preh harving year to reclaim this region maybe oscillate it around it but in the Haring year actually you can see that we rebound from here and anything below the P Cycle moving average dipping below this P Cycle ma this is bargain buying territory and you can see that from 2016 to 2017 that we can hold here for a nice long time dipping below it very briefly all the way to new alltime highs so any
dip below the bargain buying uh ma here that simply is an opportunity we can't afford to waste in bare markets very different predicament because we oscillate in and around this moving average but all the way to new lows essentially but in Haring years the principle is in Haring years and Beyond Beyond we tend to hold this region as support and any bargain buying should be occurring once we see brief deviations to the downside below this ma which brings us to this point we are currently below this 111 day moving average and we haven't been below
it for a substantial period of time like we're seeing right now since back here in the preh harving year in this consolidation period And before then we were actually below the P Cycle moving average in the bare Market region so it just illustrates and highlights the level of opportunity that we are on the cusp of enjoying right now this is a downside deviation below the P Cycle moving average and we're not going to be here for too long a time and once we reclaim this moving average as a new support we'll be able to Rally
higher towards the upside so this is definitely that bargain buying opportunity and we need to reclaim 63,000 $900 as support to end this bargain buying opportunity so we're currently around 59k right now so we are approximately $5,000 away from that reclaim not much needs to happen for Bitcoin to bounce and reclaim this region to end this bargain buying opportunity but we also have to talk about this green moving average because this green moving average tends to get Revisited at later moments in the cycle as you can see in the Haring years and Beyond we tend
to see resistance at this green moving average before upside deviating so when we think about downside deviations below the orange moving average those are bargain buying opportunities and upside deviations beyond the green moving average that's when we see parabolic price action take place as you can see here as well in 2017 and also 2013 as well talking about the first half of 2013 and then the second half of it so that just gives us an opportunity to understand price that downside deviations below the orange moving average bargain buying opportunities upside deviations that's parabolic upside and
increasing Financial Risk as we search for new all-time highs well of course nowhere close to this green moving average because it resides at around 96k so we're still almost 30k away from this region but we probably based on history we'll probably get there over time and then perform that upside deviation in which case we'll need to understand that that upside deviation will enable the parabolic upside but that's going to be quite Limited in terms of time we don't tend to spend a lot of time Beyond this green moving average so once we break Beyond there
once we break Beyond 96k we have to understand that the clock is starting to then start ticking really for the end of the ball run and we might have have a a window of just a few months where Bitcoin will be rallying uninterruptedly with of course pullbacks on the way to new time highs and Beyond however it will end at some point we will Top out in the bull market Peak but of course we're not yet there we're still far away from 96k and we're still probably most importantly fundamentally away from the bearish crossover that
we tend to see in a pi cycle indicator whenever we see a crossover that's the bull market Peak over within a few days every time we see a crossover that's a really reliable indicator and in 2021 that was one of the few indicators that really gave us a clear signal of this being the end of the bull market we were aligning these two moving average there was a convergence here for a long time before we actually got that crossover whereas right now we can't really talk about a bull market Peak simply because these moving averages
are actually diverging from one another first of all they have to start converging so it's probably going to be this orange moving average the one that's more sensitive to price action because it takes into account the 111 days of the past so it takes into account less data and that's why it's more sensitive so it has to start flicking up and once it flicks up then a crossover will be more likely in the future but we don't even have this convergence that just yet we're having Divergence which only pushes down a potential crossover further and
further down the road and if we were to ex just simp simply extrapolate and push these moving averages into the future then we'll simply see that there is no crossover that's even remotely possible because of this Divergence so we'll be able to assess when a potential crossover will happen in the future once we start to see convergence in the moving averages and for that to happen we need to see price return back above 60k maybe return back above 63k which is where the P Cycle moving average currently resides that's exactly what we need to see
for this convergence to start beginning we need to see a flick up in the P Cycle moving average for that crossover to be in place to some degree but even then if this flick up isn't going to be very sharp because price won't rally that hard then really important to understand that an extrapolation of this moving average into the future that might not produce a crossover in of itself we need to see a sharp reaction in price action for a crossover to be on the cards finally so we're very far away from a crossover at
this time which means that we're still in bargain buying territory and once this bargain buying territory is over then we'll be able to start seeing price rally towards the upside and then that's going to pull this moving average to the upside with it we're going to start seeing flicking up and then we'll have a under standing and a framework as to when a potential bull market crossover or at least a bearish crossover will occur to Mark the end of a bull market and of course we are still in the Haring year so still lots to
enjoy in terms of uh this moving average and just price action this moving average going to the upside and also price action going to the upside after the Haring we tend to see a period of upside that lasts the the amount of this square right over here so after 2016 July for example we saw price rally for an extended period of time as well maybe even longer than that square right over here and the same thing in this Haring so the bull market Peak is nowhere close occurring according to this data science metric if anything
we're still in that bargain buying territory and it can't be ignored for too long yes we are consolidating for 5 and 1/2 months maybe even slowly 6 months months but this consolidation is normal after a harving event as we saw over here for example after the 2020 harving after also the 2016 Haring where you saw consolidation take place around here as well so this consolidation is not out of the ordinary by any stretch of the imagination but this consolidation will finally end at some point and that's going to bring an end to this bargain buying
opportunity and once we rally towards the upside it's going to start flicking this G this orange moving average to the upside and potentially giving us a framework for extrapolation on when that bearish crossover could occur for a bull market Peak but of course we're nowhere close just yet because these moving averages are still diverging we're still in the reaccumulation phase and on the bargain buying part of that reaccumulation phase so really important to make the most of that opportunity and that's about it for today's video thanks so much for watching subscribe to the channel for
more videos like this the future like this video if you enjoy content like this going forward I'm re to capit and I'll speak to you in the next one speak to you soon
