with the FED finally cutting rates and taking the break off the economy and with global liquidity starting to rise does this now mean that the bull market is back well that is the topic of this video also with inflation falling and the money printer being warmed back up we now just need a trump Victory to send prices to the moon and so as always in this video we'll be covering the latest price action as things have been getting tasty then we'll look at seasonality and why we may not be out of the woods just yet
then we'll look out where we are in this 4-year Market cycle and then finish with the biggest developments from all around the world in just the past couple of weeks okay so first up we had the big milestone this week the FED doing a double cut knocking half a percent off rates and so does this mean that the bull market is back so exciting times back in the crypto market and we are going to start jumping into the classic Bitcoin chart and we're looking at it on the monthly so the monthly gives a really good
picture of what is going on we have the previous cycle top here which was Major resistance which was only briefly broken before we've been in this terrible trading range for the past 6 months now the main point just to cover here is that this month August still marked the local bottom so as far as major support this is still the line to watch which is Bitcoin just under 50,000 and so far in this month although we did bleed all the way down to about 52 this line has still held we've now had this lovely jump
and it's brought us back into this trading range above 60,000 currently sitting at about 63,000 so the big question is is this line going to hold because as the months go by it's looking more and more like that this will have been the local bottom as we'll soon see when it comes to seasonality when we get into October November December then it looks like things will be picking back up so the last two months you can see crazy volatility that's been going on we've had this terrible 1 2 3 4 five 6 months soon to
be 7 month fading down but it's also quite likely the bottom was hit last month and the bull market May well be back but we just need to watch out for one thing and the one thing has to do with seasonality and the month of September so now we're looking at Bitcoin again this time breaking it down to monthly performance and 2 weeks ago we discussed that September typically is a bad month for the crypto market and in fact two weeks ago we were hitting these figures -4 -4 being the average in the median well
since then we've had a bounce red Timber has now become green and it makes me think about how to interpret this data as even though in the month this can go to -10 if it's in the same month you can still finish the month in green and then it kind of skews what actually happened in this month as it only registers where it actually finishes so we just need to bear that in mind if we look at this chart a year from now we would think that this month was great even though we all know
at one point it was down fairly significantly so I just say until we get out of September I'd say we're not out of the woods just yet and then the second point you've got to be feeling bullish when you take a look at the averages of what happened to Bitcoin in October November December they tend to be massive months and then obviously this year once every four years we have the US election and I don't think Donald Trump could be any more Pro crypto than he is so obviously if Donald Trump gets in in November
then we may even smash through this average of 47% so for me it's really hard not to be bullish on the crypto Market coming October November December then when we flip to ethereum which may give us a better understanding for ethereum and the altcoin market we see a similar picture the last time we looked at this beginning of September it was down negative about 10% which is what the averages show however because of the Fed rate cup we've had this jump up and now all of a sudden September is green so when it comes to
seasonality we just need to bear that point in mind it can be a little bit misleading and then interestingly when it comes to October November December they don't tend to be as good when compared against bit Bitcoin other comparisons we could do is the last harving year which was 2020 so if we follow suit in 2020 for the last Haring year then October November December would be great months going all the way into January February March and April so if this follows the last harving year then from next month after this red September there is
seven green months in a row and an absolute Boom coming to the altcoins so that is incredibly bullish however it was actually 2019 if you compare it to where we were with monetary policy and what the Fed was doing with rates and if this one repeats then October will be pretty flat so I'm sure extremely volatile and then November December would actually be negative months so it's a possibility we have to stay open to this scenario this is if a recession hits it can be another pandemic Another War so something would have to go majorly
wrong I think to disrupt this momentum so hopefully we follow the last Haring year into the post Haring year and we will see a good October October November December January February March and April you know what I think it's about time jumping into the fouryear cycle and where are we so for any beginners this is just a great chart I like to refer to it's like a bull market tracker we have the first cycle when Bitcoin was about a dollar going absolutely bananas going to about a 300X from its start the second cycle doing about
120x from its cycle bottom the last big double bull market that we went through which finished with a 20x and this is where we're at right now after this big six Monon correction so knocking out the first cycle as this $1 Bitcoin cycle I think is not very useful where are we at right now so last we talked is that we do at some point need to come below the last two cycles as it's very likely we'll continue to get diminishing returns and we're very close to breaking through into this clear open space very similar
to like a plane taking off it's just heading up the runway ready for take takeoff into the clearing and then we get this nice clear path taking us I'm predicting probably to a 10x at absolute best a 15x from the cycle bottom and for those curious this is a Bitcoin price of about 150,000 to about 200,000 that is what I think is on the cards for next year as a cycle top now what I'm looking at here is this insane run in the last cycle which was after covid the FED talk about liquidity the FED
printed money like it's never printed money before liquidity was blasted in at unprecedented levels and this is why it absolutely blew past the cycle before that so this is a big warning sign whenever the latest cycle goes ahead of the previous Cycles it should be a warning sign but it's so bloody difficult to pull the trigger ideally this is the warning sign so you get out and then you buy back in when it comes back under the Cycles but it's so difficult to do we had the warning sign here as it blew past the last
cycle and congratulations to anybody who is selling here but as G read kicks in and we're checking our portfolios and we're making more money than ever it's so difficult to sell but then what happens it has to come back into fair value below the previous Cycles so I for one don't think that it's going to be able to keep Pace with this green line I think this was a once in a lifetime run I think we're probably going to be coming under here and then it's game on and we should be getting a lot of
green months to come and what did I say about Donald Trump could not be any more crypto he's just launched with his sons his world Liberty Financial this is a crypto platform that's going to be doing defi so things like borrowing and lending and yes they are also going to be launching their own token so it'll be very interesting to see what the Donald Trump token does but we all need to keep our fingers crossed for a trump victory in November when it comes to micro saor he is just Paving the way and showing exactly
what we need to do just keep dollar cost averaging into the market and and if we look at the Sailor tracker we can see this is a great example of how you can play the crypto Market in booms you just keep accumulating in crashes you just keep accumulating in booms accumulate as it crashes accumulate and dollar cost average all the way and what happens even if you buy at the absolute top he's still up about 60% on his in investment and his portfolio currently sits at about $15 billion so I think we can all learn
the lesson here be more like Michael sailor we had the news that Grace girl is to launch a xrp trust so this is great news for xrp and historically this has been a bit of a stepping stone to having its own ETF so this was good news for xrp DBS which is is one of the biggest banks in Singapore to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars they are getting into Bitcoin and ethereum options and also structured notes initially for institutions so big adoption coming from the banks in Singapore now this was very very
interesting from the UK a new bill was introduced in Parliament to clarify crypto's legal status the property bill has been introduced to Parliament and this means for the first time in British history digital Holdings like crypto nfts and carbon credits can be considered as property by law so where in the US Gary Gensler is pushing for crypto to be a security in other places or with Bitcoin it can be something like a commodity but in the UK they are putting crypto as property like you would your own house and then literally a week later there
was a UK Court ruling that tether is deemed property for the first time in English law so crypto becoming personal property so this is very very interesting and then finally in Indonesia binance a binance subsidary has got regulatory license to operate and Indonesia surprisingly has a very big population it's not that far off the United States there's a lot of people in Indonesia so as you can see plenty of developments from all around the world setting up the next monster rally in crypto with the new rate cut cycle beginning and Global liquidity picking up does
this mean that the bull market is officially back well for me as we are still in September I would say that we're not out of the woods just yet seasonality does show that October November December do tend to be good months however with the election in November a trump Victory would certainly almost guarantee a crypto boom we are now almost breaking through to a clear path in the 4-year cycle and I still predict that Bitcoin next year probably does a 10 to 15x from the cycle bottom giving a price prediction for next year of around
150,000 to 200,000 as the cycle top the developments keep coming in from all around the world thick and fast so clearly a lot to be bullish on right now and finally I think the only way that this crypto train gets derailed is some kind of other pandemic or war or big recession scare or other Black Swan event so there you are guys hope you enjoyed as most of you will know I have positioned myself for a big optimistic Outlook so my fate is sealed however remember do your own research and if you've got any questions
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