Rudyard Lynch: This Is How a Second Civil War Will Start

lay out the historical reason why you think shots fired in America by April and what could be called a civil war why why what's the patterns that line up in history that say this we're on the precipice I use a combination of intuition and empiricism and I'll explain this through both on the empirical side I've studied about five different historic models which all say that America will have a civil war war in the 2020s or a large war in the 2020s depends on the model um and for all of these they except for one of

them they stem back to the 20th century so this is a completely different era even the most recent one Peter turchin he called it in 2010 2010's a very different world saying that we'll have a civil war in the 2020s and 2010 requires a lot of balls and well it is the aftermath of the Great Recession and the rise of the Occupy Movement so there's a couple things that are like uhoh we're not in the great moderation anymore yes right no one in this room would have guessed that though Fair probably of the people watching

I would guess I don't know like 15 would have uh would have thought that we'd have a civil war in the 2020s and those people are probably the schizo Alex Jones types who just say stuff and some of it happens to be correct Alex Jones is not a prophet he just says a lot of stuff and some of it turned out to be accurate right sort of broke clock exactly um verbal diarrhea guarantees you know something's going to happen yeah so uh denesh duza in 2012 uh made this documentary saying that if Obama was elected

it would be the end of America and I thought he was insane for saying that as an 11-year-old and looking at what happened I don't think he was wrong because Obama in 2012 what happens immediately after it wokeness because Obama was appointing all of these woke people to positions of power and I think Obama precipitated this weird chain of events it's incredibly paradoxical that it created wokeness I can explain that if You' like but uh I think you asked me a question so I'm going to answer the question um and the model that I study

the most I got from first David hacket Fisher who wrote a book called The Great Wave which I've recommended to you it's one of my top recommendations to you and it's a history of inflation for the last thousand years of Western history and what it looks that is that you can correlate inflation with revolutions pretty closely and there's especially certain types of inflation that are going to have revolutions where you have these cycles of inflation and deflation that each last something a little bit over a century and he wrote in the 19 1989 I think

something like that that's when The Great Wave came out he said that America would have a crisis like and these will be the examples I keep returning back to because they're the parallels I'm drawing from and to be clear and this is a conversation I've had with many friends recently I don't think we'll have a World War I don't think we'll have nuclear war I think iron when people hear War they think it's a zombie movie the reality and this is the thing I said in timcast is most of you will keep your keep working

your jobs you'll keep taking care of your kids you'll stay watching Netflix our YouTube channels will probably still be around so if you go to Egypt or Sudan or Ukraine or uh a lot of War zones life just keeps going I like to joke we are a dystopia where you're still expected to go to your job and pay your bills because the thing with most dystopias is they get so bad that that mundanity stops no one cares about paying their bills in 1984 no one cares about paying their bills in Brave New World yeah you're

you're pointing at about something that is um easy to forget even when you think about the Great Depression right which is okay so you have have 25 pushing 30% unemployment at its depth but that still means the overwhelming majority of people were employed yes the other and people even made wealth and and built fortunes and and things got invented like the society broke down quite a bit but most of it was still functioning I'm also glad you pick the Great Depression because it teases out a point I like to say but no one brings the

conversation in this way where whenever I talk about war people think World War II because World War II is the only mental register we have for War uh World War II though is a very strange War historically where uh if you look at most wars in history and I'm going to use the 100 Years War and the 30 Years War which are two conflicts which I use as Parallels for our current conflict both of those countries so frame of reference I forget no one knows history 100 Years War was England versus France for over a

century in the 1300s 30 Years War was everyone in Europe except for a few countries basically doing Mar Smash in Central in Central Europe so uh when a kid gets a Marvel toy box with Iron Man and Spider-Man and those people and then they just throw each other in a in a play pen that was what the swedes and the Spanish and the French and the austrians were doing in Central Europe um and and the time frame for for the 30 Years War 1618 1648 it's one of those few Wars that actually does fit the

name like 100 years wars like 115 years it's actually literally just 30 Wars 30 years my one of the things that um and I don't know if you I think we've talked about this um a little bit Martin gur who's been on the show and who's a friend has a book the um the Revolt of the public and one of the things he talks about is that we're in a fifth wave of information as he puts it and that it you know the being the internet and that its level of disruption we still don't fully

appreciate but the maybe the best corollary is the printing press yeah and he lays the 30 Years War at the foot of the printing press and um the rise of protestantism that follows from that is that how you understand sort of I know these are kind of big meta narratives but I mean how do you think about I agree with that but that's not the point I'm trying to make sure uh I've talked about that in a previous video the printing press versus the internet that's a bology point to and the so 30 Years War

100 Years War all the countries involved were very weak and England France all the countries in the 30- Years War these were all countries if they had two bad Winters they'd have a Civil War and the thing with these historic periods of Crisis and the examples uh I get from both The Great Wave by David hacket fiser and Peter turin's work is that these are crises where countries normally both fight an external war and an internal War at the same time because every country in the global equilibrium is weak and with those Wars the main

aim of the war was to weaken the social fabric of the other country Society so they experien social collapse the world wars are very rare historically and that the world wars are these incredibly strong countries just fighting to the death and that only that happens very infrequently over history a previous example being the Punic Wars but it's very rare to have a society and this is thing we forget all the time where the state is strong enough to wage total war it happens for less than 10% of human history or human civilization and so with

the wars we're looking at now I don't think America could have a draft for example because we just lack there's no reason to die for the government young men would die to destroy the government they wouldn't die for the government and that's also more of a normal historic thing normally uh the king is this person that you don't I N there's this whole leftist theory that nationalism is recent that's actually a lie we've had nationalism for thousands of years but the degree of nationalism you saw after the industrial Revolution is historically very high and though

when I talk about wars keep in mind most people in this audience most people in this audience you will probably continue to live your life and the thing I wanted to bring up with the Great Depression that's fascinating is that the Great Depression in us have some core similarities and that people are really struggling the difference though and one of the things that make the Great Depression not that bad is quality of life during the Great Depression went up really fast it was an ERA where average wages went up where hours work went down went

down where uh people's ability to uh buy a lot of stuff where the cost of living in the Great Depression was super cheap it was super cheap to have a family and besides the unemployment it wasn't it wasn't really unpleasant time to live in but it's for completely different reasons than our era and so the thing I find very compelling about uh The Great Wave and wait wait why do you think it wasn't unpleasant do you mean for I said I meant to say it was unpleasant okay okay okay it was it was unpleasant if

I said it wasn't unpleasant that's insane I apologize I meant to say it was unpleasant um yeah I I I I know relatives who liveed through the Great Depression I'm aware it was unpleasant okay um and yeah but it's a different kind of unpleasant from today where if you look at uh the examples I've you brought up before French re ution 30 years war or the English Civil War and then the Black Death if you want to look at these kinds of economic crises you see skyrocketing real estate costs you see cost of living also

skyrocketing you see um cost of food and other Essentials also skyrocketing you see stock market bull runs and crashes you see Mass government printing of money the government going bankrupt from their inability to uh to have a fiscal budget government bloat you see I'm glad that you have a background in economics because I haven't been able to get this detailed in other podcasts you also see incredible inequality uh you see competition for elite jobs that's very Stark average wages crashing and you see geopolitical tension in political polarization and an example people forget is that the

average age of marriage has stayed relative ly constant over the last thousand years of Western history where before the Black Death Before the 30 Years War and before the French Revolution the average age of marriage was 27 28 and whenever you hit that range you're going to have a revolution or a Civil War and I have this whole Theory I think you might find interesting that feminism is all backhand is in some ways largely backhanded cope for people not being able to afford to have families a woman will be like oh uh I'm a boss

babe I'm just working hard to my dreams and the reason part of the reason she's saying that is because she legitimately can't afford to start a family and so it's this backwards rationalization for a a decrease in the cost of living or she can't afford to have a single- income family so she says I'm a boss babe to rationalize uh no longer being in a society where a single man can support a whole family I um the nature of sort of the cost of living crisis that's going on and ESP especially for you know we're

separated by enough that I could almost be your dad which is funny um it's Dad Saves America after all one of the reasons why I actually wanted to have you on is you're closer in age to my son than to me yes and so you're actually in um you're in the middle of generationally this thing that's going on you're in the midst of several forces that sort of I've aged out of the and I want to come back to these but I want to really get the Civil War full picture picture um but the the

Divergence of men and women politically the the fact that the boy crisis has come to like full flowering so basically like 60% of college graduates are women and women really want to be married to someone with at or higher level of educational attainment than them so that creates a crisis so you've got all this stuff that is hitting your generation that didn't hit me as a gen xer and I want to talk about that because it feels like it feeds into this but let's set that as side and how do how does how do these

historical episodes of inflation and instability set the stage for What's Happening Now in America aren't we fundamentally in Fairly different circumstances even if that pattern is true and isn't the inflation not bad enough to cause a Civil War I mean we it hasn't been as bad as the 70s we didn't have a civil war in the 80s so why would the recent inflation a civil war because the average American lives desperately close to subsistence level and so the slightest thing that goes wrong could completely ruin their lives and I mean my question is what evidence

would you because whenever we I get into these discussions we keep getting there's a lot of moving goalposts so my question is what evidence would you need me to show you to show that the average American exists in desperation well I I want to go into that because it's like there's other pieces of that that are challenging to me and that I have biases against that I that like I want you to challenge on yes but before we do that the the Civil War part like what will that mean oh like what is going what

do you see going to happen as a result of these forces that are histor that are historically repeated oh there's going to be Wars and plagues and possibly uh in wars and plagues and famin I mean stuff that's always happened um and I mean this is just life I mean this is just what happens but I mean is it literally do you see it like people holding up in their neighborhoods I mean we're here in Austin Texas Texas is a super red state but Austin's very very very blue but it's not as blue as New

York so but like how does this play how would a civil war in the US play out geographically like it's not like the north versus the South where like oh we're in the north and you're in the South it's like is it the cities versus the sub versus the rural people like what happened so part of the reason I moved tiah says this would be one of the best places if there's a civil war because I kind of did the same thing yeah yeah continue exactly because actually this is a good segue for me to

talk about the uh how I think a conflict like this would start yeah please where I have a tier list and I've studied these previous historic conflicts and the historic conflicts I use as the best proxies are the follow of the Roman Republic the English Civil War the French Revolution and the uh US Civil War and so I look for sympathetic connections between them and the biggest one I would normally use is a budget issue but due to the uh circumstances we exist in I have changed that to an election issue so my tier number

one election issue number two budget issue number three uh Trump getting assassinated and if you guys watch this podcast and I've used a different order for my previous podcasts I apologize uh but this is also not your problem um so Trump getting assassinated uh external war and Black Swan event and for those that don't know black one event is a randomized event like uh giant let's say low probability high impact yeah exactly an example let's say an immigrant uh kills five young white girls in a Chicago suburb and then this spirals out into riots across

the country like what happened in the UK and what happened in 2020 with George exactly something like that so uh but and so budget issue was the normal one I put as number one it was shoved to number two because the English Civil War the French Wars of religion and France's previous crisis in the 13 Civil War in the 1300s the armeniac and the burgundians and then the French Revolution France starts every single crisis for the last 700 years in the exact same way there's a struggle between the Monarch and the Parliament over a budget

issue then the uh then the Monarch tells the parliament to shut down the parliament tells the Monarch to go to hell twice they the the parliament has convened in a tennis court and then launch independent government France you see these weird genetic patterns in how societies have Civil Wars um and budget issu is number one and that's or normally number one it's number two now and budget issue really scares me because look at our budget I mean well why is it number two because I I would I I I can speak to this a little

bit but I want to hear why you've moved it to number two because the election's less than a month away you should just have an election counter in the background so whenever your audience watches your show they'll know it's seven days until defc con yeah one of the things we will have to do is have you back in not too distant a time to see how we're doing on the predictions yeah because the world is moving fast but is that it you just think that just in rank order of Doomsday Clock it's like the budget

can't become a disaster as fast as the election will be a disaster exactly that's what I think where it's it's like imagine you have a house and for a lot of well you you do have to imagine that and imagine you have a house and your roof is about to cave in due to an issue and you know something's going to Cave your roof in so you you look there staring at your roof thinking oh is this storm going to make my roof cave is this storm going to make a roof cave is it going

to crit cave naturally these things happen and uh and if the best scenario I have and these are one of things I predict with the lowest probability because when you look at statistical projections you can assess certain scales of thing relatively easily and then the individual group level is harder to predict because you're operating more out of chaos and my best scenario is something like this both sides deny the election results and I think both sides will deny the election results because for both the right and the left they are stuck in a situation where

they physically can't afford to lose this election do you want me to explain that yeah please this is one of the things I've been on a lot of podcasts I'm always annoyed no interviewers ask me this question because I frequently say the right and the left can't afford to lose yeah that's a I mean what does that even mean so Civil Wars happen when each faction plausible deniability to the radicals inside their faction is more important than the other side and I went on plausible deniability to the radicals in their faction is more important I've

uh what does that mean exactly I've gotten very into studying the human nature of plausible deniability because plausible deniability is everywhere and no one realizes it um because humans use plausible deniability for all social interactions and I mean give me like a a super pedestrian example of daily life plausible deniability um so let's say uh you don't like someone and you don't want to hang out with them and then they ask you to hang out and you say oh I'm sorry I'm on a trip to Turkey now and so let's say and and this is

complete unidentifiable the vast majority of the public let's say you periodically travel out of your town to avoid dealing with the people in your town and so you're taking this vacation to get plausible deniability to avoid everyone around you and so you have plausible deniability but also it serves multiple purposes once or I have something I can point to yes that is not the real reason for the thing happening or the thing I want to to do yeah but I can point to it and it's plausible that that's why you did it so let's say

I'm a complete degenerate and I I want to be a degenerate without other judging me so I can say I'm a club promoter and so by being a club promoter I have complete plausible deniability to be a degenerate and everyone think oh that's his job that's how he makes money and so M and and POS deniability is especially big for women and one of the things my friend said is when you hear women talk think about what the thing they said gives possible deniability for something and that's just completely changed my life why is that

I I know we're going into a rabbit hole but risk mitigation and so uh plausible deniability gives risk mitigation because it allows you if if you are going to lose a fight plausible deniability gives you the ability to get out of risky situations so it's I don't mean to say this and have it be like women are cowards but it is kind of the coward's way out like like I like R than just telling the person I'm sorry I don't I just don't want to hang out I'm sorry women are cowards because it's their thing

I mean let's be blunt here no one expects women to die in war no one expects women it's completely fine for them to be cowards in the same way it's completely fine for men to be at least under certain circumstances okay I will I'll let the can we at least add on average or something here I I know a lot of women that could kick my ass so let's be including my wife everyone on this podcast has an IQ high enough to move past Knack salt yeah very very fair fair enough um I I will

give you the the Rope necessary for us both to be hung in the Civil War to come uh okay we already I already passed that bridge man so we've got uh we've got this situation where you believe both the the Democrats and the Republicans lack plausible deniability for why they would lose with the crazy people in their sides of the aisle is that is how I understand that the point I was trying to convey there is that the right and the left care more about pleasing the radicals inside their faction than the other side what

I just said is an example of that because I care less about offending the left at this point than the far right because we're stuck in a situation where the sides don't talk to each other and so if you're on the right you think more about how do I avoid getting eaten by the radicals on my side than by the other side and that's when you know you're going to have a civil war if you like this clip you should check out the full video and all the other great content we've got at dad Saves

America so be sure to hit the like button subscribe and ring that Bell so you won't miss our new stuff as it drops each week