Time is Running Out

All right, guys. Welcome back to the channel. Today, Bitcoin's at $14,000, up around $305,000 since the low in April, over one month ago.

Now, the question begs, is this a bare market rally? In today's video, let's look at the analysis and investigate the probabilities of this being a bare market rally, or this is part of the next leg to the upside, potentially breaking into new all-time highs. Like me, you may already have an opinion on the matter.

You might think it's going to a new all-time high, or you could be part of the camp that believes it's a massive bull trap, and we're about to see a almighty dump that takes out the $74,000 low. The point of today's video is to look at the probabilities of both scenarios, weigh up the facts that we've got, and then decide on how you want to trade that. Once we've done that, we can look at the stock markets, the commodities, and also get into some altcoins, updating the charts for Ethereum, EBTC, of course, total market caps, and some of the major altcoins like XRP, Soul, and Sooie.

So, stick around for that. Hit the like, subscribe to the channel. Let's dive in.

First things first, we're looking at the bare markets here of BTC. We've got the time frames at the low here from each of the cycle lows to a projected top. At least in the case of the current cycle and the previous cycles from 2019 up into 2021.

You can see that the tops all lasted roughly around 1,100 days. So we're still a little way off hitting that that time frame to get into that next peak. So, first thing there with the time frames, it's probably unlikely that this is a bare market rally.

Just looking at time frames for the cycle, especially working off the 4-year cycle from low to low and where these highs typically come in. So, that's the first thing my looking at the data that to me suggests we're still in a bull market, but there's still a few more things to look at. Let's take a look at the GANS swing pro here and the percentages of how often we would see four weeks to the upside.

So, we've just hit four weeks, 1 2 3 4 nice closing price there as well in the swing to the upside. We do have five weeks in the green. So, five weeks that have uh closed higher than they have opened, but in terms of swings, we only have the four there.

And so the idea with this is we want to see how many times we've seen four weeks to the upside in a bare market to then let us know whether the probabilities are on our side of a bare market rally or if this is part of the bull market. So I've got the red squares on the chart and looking at each of the previous cycles we have our swing chart in play and then looking at the number of swings in a rally within the bare market. So there's the bare market.

Yellow line are our swings. And you would see a number on top of the swing if it's going to be four bars, four weeks or more. Now, I know a lot of people prefer candles.

Either way, it doesn't matter. I learned on bars, and that's why I prefer to use the bar chart, but if you want candles, here we are. So, in the bare market of 2014, there were no rallies of four weeks or greater.

There was an inside week, an up week, and another up week. Yes, it's red, but it's an up week. Higher highs, higher lows.

That's more important in this case. So, that was three. You had one here, one here, just a few here.

1 2 3. This was lower. And then again, it was all less.

So, the point of this is we can now filter out any of the swings that were four less than four weeks. So, 3 2 1 or zero. So, we're at four or greater.

Simply put, 2013, 2014 to the peak there was November, December. No rallies, no bare market rallies were more than 3 weeks in that case. So, let's skip across to 2017, there was one.

So, all of these other moves to the upside. Remember, it is on a logarithmic chart. They're still pretty significant moves in price, which gets the market sentiment and I guess retail and everyone excited that we might see a new all-time high.

The price ranges are quite large, but you don't get a sustained move to the upside. There was no rally in the first case of four weeks or more. Again, not 4 weeks or more, and then we had a fiveweek period and then less than that before the major dump there or another major dump into the low of December 2018.

So, I'll come back to this in just a sec. There was one there of five, but two major things on that. So, let's just go through to the next year because we do have another one here.

Uh, 2022's bare market. Sure, it started in late 21, but for all purposes that the whole thing basically took up the majority of 2022. So, the 2022 bare market, there was one rally here with 4 weeks, which is where we currently find ourselves at 4 weeks again.

And after that, there was no other rallies with four weeks or more. So now let's come back to what the importance are of these two weeks or the the differences from these two rallies that were four weeks or more in the previous bare markets compared to now. And now we find ourselves above one the 50% level of the downtrend.

So here is the downtrend here. It's climbed above it and two it's broken weekly swing tops. Breaking weekly swing tops is really important.

If it's not in your analysis, that's okay. But what you find when the price breaks through these significant tops, these key levels, which you can identify with the swing pro here, you see a lot of retail come back. You see a lot of excitement and news headlines about the price of Bitcoin.

Now, it can all be doing whatever it does in between these levels in this trading range. But for some crazy reason, people get very excited when it breaks these key levels. And in this case, we've broken a couple of these key levels.

In the previous bare market, there were no swings to break there. This was the first swing getting put in and there just really wasn't the excitement in the market. It dumped again and then it ran up into this really weak top before it crashed.

So, in this case, it couldn't break past a weekly swing top. So then we go to the second um signal here and was it able to get above 50%. No, it was an extremely weak rally.

Even though the time was there, it was just a really really weak rally. So we can cross that off as well. Then we come back to the previous cycle here in 2017 or the cycle before the last and again did it break past 50%.

So we got to use the low to the the top and it was another very very weak rally. So it did last 5 weeks. it couldn't break a weekly swing top.

It couldn't get to 50%. And again, it just it faded out. So although the timing was there, there was enough uh buyers for a period of time, the strength in that buy, the volume coming through just was not enough.

And like we saw with 2013, there wasn't even more than 4 weeks to the upside. So to me, that already says that it's very, very unlikely that this is going to be a bare market rally and that we're just setting up for another move to the upside. So the analysis points to this rally being part of the next leg in the major bull market in the macro bull market.

Yes, we can have corrections along the way and I'll get to the strength and weakness of the corrections in just a moment. But in terms of the history of BTC, we have never seen the weekly swing break past a 50% level and weekly swing tops and go more than four weeks in a row and then come back and and correct and take out the low and basically telling us that the top is already in. So the prob probabilities are well and truly on our side.

One could say once you factor in these filters that I showed you here, you could say never. So 100% of the time when we've seen this happen, the market's broken higher. But of course, you have to know, you have to keep in the back of your mind, there's only been three other occasions.

So that's three other bare markets uh that we've had to assess the strength and weakness of any sort of rally. So yes, probabilities are on our side, but less data is um is available. Now, the next move would be then to the upside.

So we can cross off for now because we have to take a side. If you're going to be invested in the market, you've got to take a side. We're saying that we are not in a bare market rally and that we're going to see a bull market here.

So, how much further can this leg go before we see a correction? So, again, I get out my gansing pro. Let's take a look at the percentage moves to the upside.

So, that's what we're looking at next. Okay. And we've got some of the statistics here in the in the chart below.

And we take a look at the the ranges and the averages. some medians and the averages here along with the max. Now, the average move to the upside in these weekly swings is about 25%, we're only interested in the upswings.

Now, uh the median is about 18% and the maximum. So, one time we've seen a 91% move in the same swing, but how often do these happen? Well, obviously not very often if it's the maximum.

The average bars in a move to the upside is about two and a half. The median is about two. Currently, we're at four.

So, we don't often see too many weeks further once we've got to four. We do have a six. There's a five here.

It's the numbers are there's a lot of numbers going on, but just look for the single digit here. 7 8 and within those periods, it could be 1 2 3 weeks. So, in terms of percentages now, we're currently sitting at 41% from the low.

The other times, as it says, the average is about 25. So, we're well beyond the average. We're beyond the median.

We haven't reached the maximum yet, but we're getting pretty close to that upper end. And if we take a look at the longest weekly swings for BTC and in terms of the uh the time frames and have a look at what percentages they've done, we are also getting to that extreme end I guess. So 41% the previous move into the uh $18,000 top was 62% and then to that final top was 21.

But again, that was basically a weak move into the upside. it closed underneath that level. Um, four weeks, 30%, five weeks, 27%, seven weeks, there it is, the 91%.

So, that was the largest move we've seen in history for basically one straight line up in the weekly chart. Uh, you've got 8 weeks here at 68%. And a couple more weeks at the lower uh area here for the the beginning of the bull market.

48% for 6 weeks. four weeks was 28% and then these ranges were all less in terms of time but the percentages 47 16 10 etc. So we're currently at 41.

As you can see for this bull market there's only been a handful of occasions that have gone beyond this 40 odd%. You got 48 47 68 91. So let's say we get somewhere around 50 to 70%.

Cut it. Oh we got a 62 here as well. So, let's cut it through the middle and say we go 60% on this move from the low.

Where could this take the price of BTC? So, we're just looking at all probabilities based on the data that um the market's given us for this bull market. We're at 41.

60 odd% would take us to about 119 120K. So, let's say for round numbers, we go up 61% in this straight line. Maybe over the next one to two weeks, the fifth and the sixth week of this range takes us to that 60 odd percent.

What happens from that point? Now, for those smart viewers that are going to say it's up, down, or sideways, you'd be 100% correct. Up, down, or sideways.

But what are we trying to do? We're trying to assess whether it's going to be a strong move or a weak move that is going to follow from that point. So, should we get some sort of correction here?

Yep. Up, down, sideways. Is it strong or is it weak?

So, let's make it really, really simple and just look at what's happened in the past. Looking at similar rules, breaks above, that's fine. We need to see volume.

I'll get to that in a in a moment with some of the other data that's coming through. It's looking okay. Uh, but we also need to see a strong closing price as well.

So, we need to see previous resistance become support. So, really, really simple. We don't need to spend a lot of time on this.

We want to see the previous highs become support if this happens to break through now because there's still enough time in the tank. there's still enough energy in the tank uh for the the price to go higher, you know, go above 40%, maybe hit the 50 60 70%. And there's still enough time.

We haven't got to the extremes. If we were getting to the extremes here with the maximum of, you know, 7 8 weeks and we were getting close to this height, 80 90%, it would seem pretty unlikely that this thing had further to go. But we're kind of at the the upper end.

Still more time. So support become resistance. If this breaks through, great.

Maybe we see the consolidation being above the previous tops. That would then put it into the stronger camp. If we started to see breakdowns and it closed beneath those levels, that would then put it into a weaker but still neutral because it hasn't broken 50% levels.

Now, of course, we'll have to reassess where that 50% comes in. Maybe this is the top here. Maybe it goes to 110 120.

We don't know yet. And then we'll have to assess where that 50% is. But provided it stays above the 50%, let's call it neutral.

Now, if it starts to break higher, come underneath and then close underneath those 50% in particular beneath these previous support levels at around 90ish KK. You know, we've looked at 89 to $91,000, that would then be very, very weak. You'd be back in that weak area.

And you would have to expect that well maybe this top is in and we're either got a long time to consolidate again or we're going to see a bare market rally. And in which case we can come back to the analysis from today's video and have a look at how those bare market rallies turned out previously. Yes, it could go on for four weeks or the case here 5 weeks, but if it's not able to break significant weekly swing tops or get above the 50% level of the range to the downside, then that's telling you something that things could be a little weaker.

So, end of the cycles, we've looked at time frames now looking at, you know, 1,100 days to the end of some sort of peak. uh end of the moves are much more difficult to play because of how far the market has come from the low. The lows way way easier, of course, in my opinion, to to be investing compared to where the tops are.

So, naturally, now that we're at these tops, I'd be looking more so from the point of view of shorter term trading. And we'll cover some of the top 10. So the crypto data from this point is a little more favorable again to the uh the bull market move the macro move still intact.

Yes, we've seen some liquidations to the long side after we had that huge huge day there on Thursday or Friday of last week uh doing nearly a billion dollars in liquidations. a lot of shorts getting taken out and the interesting and quite positive analysis or the data I should say for the bull market is that the exchange volume has also ticked up again. Remember we've been watching for a long time because it's about patience in the game whether we see an higher low and and an uptick in the the volume here.

So we've got a slightly higher low 30. 7 30. 0 zero and we've seen a break of these previous tops.

Yes, it could come back down, take at those levels, but overall we're starting to see a bit of a basing here and that is a strong positive sign that we're we're going to see more exchange volume come back into cryptos and Bitcoin. Now, the next thing is the Google Trends. So, the words here crypto and Bitcoin, there's also been an uptick in the search volume.

We've got higher lows forming. We've got higher highs forming as well. Today is the 12th of May and crypto's ticked up a little.

Bitcoin has ticked up a little more on the 90 days here and we've been watching the 90, the 12 months, the 5 years. We were concerned that maybe this was going to drop off. And right at that point, you guys remember from the 5-year data here, we were watching this minor uptick in the search volume for Bitcoin and crypto coming in almost dead on that time again where the the support level needed to hold.

Crypto Bitcoin 7 and 17. And last week we saw this drop down to you know roughly around 8 and 20. And of course with that extra search volume that's come through the last couple of days.

It's now ticked up to 21 putting in a slightly higher low here. So again things are looking on the up although it might be slow. Of course, in the price charts, it looks a little quicker, but with that search volume coming through and the exchange volume coming through, it's looking reasonably good now for this next uh this next move for BTC and altcoins through quarter 2 and potentially quarter 3.

At the time of filming, Bitcoin's hit $15,000. So, USDT dominance is another good signal that it's unlikely this is going to be a bare market rally. We've seen a solid breakdown of the 50% level and in this case it's both of the 50% levels.

The major one that was around 4. 75% and the current shorter term 50%. You can see it came on to the 50 sat tried to rally very weak rally big crash correction through to the downside there.

Now the mania can go off once we hit 3. 7 or break down from 3. 7 more accurately.

Lower highs are in play. But if we start to see some sort of consolidation above that level and then a rally back up, that is not going to look good for the bull market. So fingers crossed for the bull market that we continue to see further downside on the USDT dominance, this would really set things flying if we break down from 3.

7%. And in terms of that bare market rally, in almost all of these occasions when the USDT dominance has really broken clear support, as we've covered before, a twoe swing, um, also breaking through 50% levels, it's very unlikely that we're about to see the end of the bull market. It's likely that we've got a little further to go at least, if not some bigger things are ahead.

So to me, that's another pretty strong signal. of course just weighing up the evidence here for the probabilities being on the side that the bull market should continue and we'll see further uh gains there to the upside. Now the stock markets have also opened up for the week.

Wasn't a it was a reasonable close out last week, but yeah, for the stock markets and this uh the bull market carrying on for the 18-ear cycle, we are seeing a jump, a gap up on the open for the S&P 500. For the Nasdaq, same thing here, a gap up on the open. And for the Dow Jones, there was also a gap up on the open, but at the moment, you know, it's only been a couple hours, closing just slightly lower.

As for the US dollar, it's also had a tiny gap up on the open, now coming back to fill in that gap. But at the um in terms of the USD, it seems like it's still playing out with this three-year pattern. A breakdown into threeyear lows generally means that there is some time for the the price action to consolidate.

And in the last two times that we've seen this happen, the US dollar has rallied from there. So we saw the rally in 2018 and then we also saw the rally in 2021. In this instance, we're back underneath the highs of around 100 101.

And that could then mean we need a little more consolidation here before uh the continuation of the downside. The concerning part here for most of the markets would be if uh the dollar was to break back above 50% around 104 in the first instance and then towards that high there at 106. Long way off at the moment.

We'll obviously continue to cover that on the on the charts here on the channel. But let's take a look at all coins before we wrap up the video. We've got heaps to get through here.

So total crypto market cap, this includes everything. Stable coins, Bitcoin and ETH also looking really, really strong. closed above 50%, closed and broke above the weekly swing tops.

So, that's still all well and truly at play here as well. So, that's positive. That's more evidence to the bullish side.

ETHUSD has also had a very strong run this last week. In terms of price action, it has now overbalanced to the upside. So, overbalance in time and price.

The 50% level is at 2,746. So somewhere around 2750 and it's above those previous swing lows there at 2200. So it need it did basically everything except the 50% but it's almost done enough here to expect that we should see some further upside.

Now the difficulty here I think for a lot of people who might be swinging extreme ETH bullish is whether this price action gets above the the $4,000 $4,100 level. If we get back there, shallow retrace and a breakout, huge. I mentioned this earlier on when we were way back at 3,000.

A fourth time breakout at that level would be huge, huge news for ETH, but it's got a lot of work to do until it gets back to that level. ETH BTC, a lot of work to do to get back into a stronger overbalance in price. It's got a shortterm one here on the um the recent rally.

We still have not broken past key levels to the upside. So roughly around that 0. 03.

That's the first swing top. We haven't seen any breaks or swing tops. And that's what has continued on with the downtrend.

So that's the first one there. And then an extension would get us uh somewhere we need to go back above. 035.

036 to give us that overbalance. But with such a strong downtrend, there is a lot of work to do to get back into a macro sign of strength here, a macro bull market. Obviously, the bears here.

Some good short-term signals closing above 50%. Nice strong move to the upside. Getting back above the previous swing low here at 2 uh 02, so 0024, which was also previous bottom there in December 2020 before things went parabolic.

So, it's got some good short-term signs here. The overhead resistance, obviously, this massive diagonal that it broke down from. So, it can still rally quite a lot.

ETH can still rally from here up to this high. Give you an extra 20% over BTC. If it gets to the yellow line somewhere between now and who knows, end of the year, it's still going to be roughly about 55 to 63% more than Bitcoin if it does that, of course.

And that could still so running into that resistance. Is it still give you a bigger gain there as well? But of course, you need to really stay on on on on your toes here with any of these moves to the upside.

Are they going to be shortlived? Are they going to carry on? Are they going to break through and then hopefully go to that next target?

There's just a lot of work for it to do. Doesn't mean you don't have any good trades there to the upside. So, on to the altcoins now.

You've got uh total crypto market cap three. So, this is excluding the stable coins. uh sorry excluding Bitcoin and ETH this one includes the stable coins just under the 50% level did break those swing tops so there is still some strength here but it's a long much further away from those highs could say it's a long way away but much further than the total market cap this chart here includes XRP includes so includes sooie everything except Bitcoin and ETH of course now we're looking at some of the stronger altcoins here XRP just under the 50% levels in the short term but the macro here basically for this entire bull market going back to June June 2022 for XRP to the current top has uh it's basically consolidated above this 50% level this entire time that Bitcoin's been correcting and alts have been correcting.

It hasn't had a weekly close underneath $184 which is a pretty strong sign as well. Now it just seems to be some short-term resistance here at 245250 and it's also broken past its weekly swing top. One more to do here that could really set it up to a nice strong move back towards three bucks.

Sooie also above 50% that is this um current range and the down range that was at around 290 to $3 and the close above four bucks being that previous swing top and all of that price action before it really broke down. So, it's in a relatively strong position, but as you can see with SUI and with XRP, the weekly extension, that's what this low to high to the bottom here is. It's um the the current week has hit that 50% and corrected.

So, it's hit the 50% and closed a little lower, but subtle signs there. It's closed above four bucks. So, at the moment, it's um it's attempting to to push higher again and break past that 50%.

So, it's come all the way back to test that. And also we want to have a look at soul here on the uh the longerterm chart. So we got the weekly.

It's broken above the swing top. It's putting in a an overbalance in time of price for the uh the downtrend. So basically we got the rally here bigger move to the upside in time in price.

That was the previous move. So it's done that and it's broken back above the 50% level and it's broken above the the weekly swing top. So soul is now sitting up in a better position.

Now, naturally, you get the the comments saying, "Well, why don't you buy the low? " Well, you don't have confirmation. That was like basically all the people buying the lows on the way down and now maybe find themselves at break even in the best case and a lot of the the people that don't find themselves in break even who just keep buying all the way down.

So, uh technically this is basically this is the premium that you pay to get confirmation. Uh again, it's not a guarantee, but get further confirmation that it seems like the the trend is changing and it's in a safer um quote unquote position for uh trades to the upside. So basically, the trend has changed.

If we're going to be taking long trades here, then you've got a much better chance that the trades are going to be successful to the long side rather than successful to the downside, successful to the short side because the trend had moved from the short now to the long. Now, a simple look here at some technicals when it comes to a trading plan. If this is going to be a shorter term move to the upside, you know, if we we don't see a prolonged bull market running into mid late 2026 and it's something short and we, you know, play out the rest of 2025 as some good trades to the upside like TI Premium is doing there.

Huge huge gains here, 800% on a nice Bitcoin trade to the upside. And we go through this in much further detail with TIA Premium. But if you want to have a a look at the reports first, check it out.

Link in the top of the video description. That will be that will be coming out tomorrow evening. So, make sure you're on board for that one there as well.

In terms of the technicals, when it comes to your trading plan, take partial profits. You don't need to sell out of everything. You know, we've talked about a lot when it comes to 50% levels.

And you can see here again on XRP, it's hit 50% and pulled back. It can be a good chance to take something off the table to get your position into risk-free as soon as possible. basically get some of that capital off the table so that then you can ride this thing out and you have a bigger buffer to the downside.

Hold remaining position. Maybe you want to hold this thing out and run it up to 100%, 150%, whatever your plan says. Exit more at the next targets.

Here are our targets. This is how we use the targets like our weekly swing extension. Obviously, apply it on a 4 hour or daily depending on how much you want to sit in front of your computer.

and um always have a stop-loss. Then that's going to put you in a safer seat rather than just buying and hoping it goes up, looking at any sort of narratives that the news tells you about and they never tell you, well, this might be the time that this coin isn't going to make it. So, you really need to have that stop in play, especially at these volatile times to the upside.

Now, I've got more to cover when it comes to XRP because things are looking pretty healthy here. The time frame is a really important one coming up for July, June, July as well. So, let's stay on top of that.

But yeah, if you do want to know more about this, TI premium is that place to go now as we lead into this volatile peak. I'll see you guys in the next video. Like, subscribe.

Thanks again for joining me on another one. Till then, take care. And peace out.