Henrik Zeberg: ALL-TIME Highs BOOM Before Deflationary MARKET CRASH

And the size of this bubble, if I'm right, then when we start to see the deterioration of things, it's going to be very, very destructive. I mean, people panic immediately and things are being sold off really, really quick. And you get 20% down like in no time. And that's because everything is so overvalued at this point that when some kind of volatility comes in, if the economy rolls over, people start to lose Their jobs, which I think it will happen, then you're going to see this kind of sell-off and that's going to be very, very

quick. The good news is that the labor market still is strong, but the housing market doesn't look very strong. It actually looks very very bad in the US. And long-term shift is not the same as short-term development. And I think what you're going to see is that you can have a short-term development to the downside in inflation that then will Be taken over by a move up. So you can see this whipsaw kind of thing again just so that the inflation goes over now because the Fed's becoming or is overly cautious now and hawkish and

that will then create the deflationary bust. You're going to see a recession and then they will come in with the guns blazing again once more to try to to fix things overreacting again and then I think you're going to see the the unfolding of the next inflationary regime. But for Now, I think I'll ride the low top. So around 68 uh would be my my target for S&P now and the NASDAQ around 25,000, but I could see go as crazy as [Music] 28,000. Welcome to the Microscopic Podcast presented by Gold Republic. My name is Alex

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[Music] description. Welcome back, Henrik. Henrik Zabber, columnist at Swissborg. You are a recurrent guest by now. I think people who watch this channel and uh who are subscribed since at least a few months know you. For the new ones, well, they'll get to know you soon enough. But we are actually in a roll. We're on a on a third interview. And as we just discussed now, it would be really nice to organize a remote call with Francis and Matthew to also look back on what we've discussed in South Africa and Cape Town. That was March.

Yeah. End of February, March. Wow. Time flies. February for me. For my I think I was back home March 1st. So yeah, so so that was a while ago already. And I'm here to discuss with you kind of like based on already what we discussed before with a bit of the overview of the business cycle, the housing market, obviously the bond market and uh maybe some assets like gold, Bitcoin, some commodities and uh get a bit of your insights about the updates on where we Are at now. And my first question would then be how

do you see now let's start with the business cycle. What we see in the in the business cycle is that we uh we are still not seeing the the rollover for me there the business cycle consists of these three main indices which are one is that leading indicators the coincident indicators and the lagning indicators and the leading indicators are really telling us you know that's the road map that that's where we're Going. what's what's going to happen to the economy for the last 75 years going back quarterly when we've seen the crossover we actually will

get a recession uh at some point it's not really it's not it's only about know when it's going to set in and normally takes two to four quarters but we recently we just the last quarter here we just saw in the coincident indicator we actually saw a little reaceleration of the in the in the uh what you call The real economy and that's the labor market the production level and so on so forth this can be kind of you know enforced by what we saw into the uh the first quarter here also with the with

the things that we saw were being pulled forward because of the the the the fear of the tariffs and things like that. So that that can happen the the effect on that but it actually tells us that if we look at the the labor market it doesn't roll over at this point. We don't see That kind of deterioration which would be needed if we were in a recession. And that was also very clear to me actually a month ago a month and a half ago when everybody was falling over themselves and talking about the recession

and all that. Can't remember when you and I talked but I I definitely said I don't think this is it. I think we're going to have a strong move going higher here and uh and I think that's what we are in the process of right now. We we are seeing That stock market actually being soared higher. We've seen indices around the world actually moving to new all-time highs and I think it's just a matter of time before we see that in the US as well. And all this is being supported by the economy not really

rolling over at this point. It's going to come as I still and you know it's like me waiting for good here. I know that but it's the reason I'm waiting is because I've seen this this the crossover of the leading And that's why I'm saying there is going to be some deterioration at least that's what my model suggests to the economy and it's going to be some point probably when people don't expect it it's going to come and then there is the second part of that which is the housing market which you also just mentioned.

Yeah. And and that's why also maybe it would be good to then divide let's say the the good news and the and the the good the bad and the ugly maybe of all that. So Let's let's start with the good stuff. Yeah. But well the good stuff is that you you you still have a labor market in the US that is strong and you apparently you see now that people are coming back into the market and it seems like you know everything is fine and we see that the you know the the narrative was also

now that the the tra we don't want like you know Trump to talk so much about the tariffs and all that because then then we have a bad day in the stock market But but it seems like it's it's you know uh it's kind of moving in the background now and and and again the the markets have been moving up. I start to hear people saying now, "Oh, well, Henry, what why would now should we get a, you know, a downturn at some point?" So, I think that's the good news. That's the that we don't

see it at this point here. The bad news is that the second part of the uh the the other part of the economy, you have the housing market, You have the labor market. These are the two big ones. You can just think of, you know, from yourself. And if my house is okay, it doesn't depreciate in value, you're okay. If it appreciates, you feel a little more wealthy and you'll spend a little more. But even even more important is how you feel about your job security. So if you're you know you got a secure job

then you feel better and you feel that you can you know spend more but if both of these starts to Deteriorate then it's you know not a good thing and we are only in a situation now where the the good news is that the labor market still is strong but the housing market doesn't look very strong and actually looks very very bad in the US and we see house prices starting to decline. We see that it's you know frozen solid in terms of the number of new homes sold. We see mortgage applications are down in

the gutter. We see that the affordability Index is down the gutter and all these things is a heavy anchor on the economy. This is something that is weighing in. It doesn't turn it over and roll it over immediately, but it's something that is weighing in and making people spend less. So, and again, nothing goes in a straight line and we have had a an upturn now for since the the co low where we just induced a lot of liquidity into it and and still haven't seen the the the housing market actually bouncing Back for real

after that. So, yes, we're seeing prices, but we don't see the activity. we need to see activity in the housing market. That's that's what drives the sound economy as well. So as we don't see that then there is this you know the slow the anchor keeping holding us back which I think is going to turn us over to to roll the economy over. So these are the good things the the ugly one. So now this was the good, the bad, and now the ugly one. And uh the ugly One is definitely the the size of

this bubble. And the size of this bubble, if I'm right, then when we start to see the deterioration of things, it's going to be very very destructive because people will be we saw it also into the the April B bottom here. I mean, people panic immediately and things are being sold off really really quick and you get 20% down like in no time. And that's because everything is so overvalued at this point that when some kind of Volatility comes in, if the economy rolls over, people start to lose their jobs, which I think it will

happen, then you're going to see this kind of sell-off and that's going to be very very quick. So I think those are the three ones, the the good, the bad, and the ugly at this point. So if we look at the housing market then and zoom in in there a little bit, uh we have prices that still actually remain pretty elevated. The inventory is also pretty Tight, but still you see cracks. What are those cracks exactly? If we look at the numbers, well, to me it's it's more the if you look at some of the

the main indices that that if you track the housing market and especially the wider housing market because what what's important about the housing market is that it also drives a lot of other activities around the housing. So you know if when people have to upgrade their homes or whatever they do then Then it you know it drives a lot of activities and and if you look at the one that is called the NAHB housing index which is a broader index for one single home families family homes you'll actually see that that is actually plummeting and

it's actually been plummeting for quite some time and it's now seem see seemingly you know moving even further down and that is not a good sign. So yes we may see that prices have not started to do outright decline just Yet because people are not selling their homes in droves just just yet. they are capable of maintaining that the the home but if the the moment that things start to shift well then people will not be a a able to do so and that's that's the problem here with if they get forced to start selling

their homes which could happen well then you know because of the the turn the the the the economic slowdown well then you could see that this can actually just exacerbate the The the size of this crisis here so the and also there are other indices that shows that we may have seen a very big top it doesn't roll over immediately and if you look at like there's a Philadelphia housing market index as as well. If you look at that, seems like to me it's made a very big top. It did the same in 2005 and

it took some time before you saw then the crisis setting in a year and a half, two years later. But this one is also uh an important Factor that I'm saying that well I think we've seen a top I think it's going to go down from here. It may not be felt immediately. It's like the frog sitting in in in water that's getting hotter and hotter and I think at some point you'll see people starting to jump out because they simply cannot afford the the the uh the high rates that we see right now. That's

why also if you look at the credit card uh delinquency rates and so on, they they they move up and this can Take a while. I mean this is the process. It takes a while and then when people are starting to jump and they are forced to sell their homes, that's the moment when you see that the full effect starts to unfold. So we're not there yet and that's also what we see the maybe there where where this dead weight anchor is is keeping things down a bit somewhat but I think it's going to be

the one that actually pulls us you know pulls us over completely at some point. And if we look at the leading indicators in the housing market, one could tell that maybe anything that is about mortgage applications might also be giving some signals or information about that. But they have ticked up recently and permits have kind of stabilized. So is it that bad right now? Are we maybe like is the worst already over especially if considering that the Fed might cut rates in in the second quarter of 2025? Well, you say they ticked up, But if

you look at it at the affordability and you look at the uh mortgage rates applications also, they are down the gutter still. So, yes. So, when you're all the way down the gutter and we say they take up, that's that's a part of the normal. You can see adjustments or the ups and downs. I would say I I'm I'm I'm not sure I can see why things would be moving becoming better here because actually with as I look at it things and you know you see That there is a slowdown in many manufacturers around the

world also and you can also see that the the ECB for instance and other central banks are trying to stimulate the economy at this point here. So I'm not I don't think that you know people like to think that this is the worst as it gets and now it starts to become you know better from here. I actually see that this, you know, I'm expecting to see it getting worse from here because we have the the Kind the indicators that tells us that normally when we see yield inversions and the likes and we see the

housing market declining, well, then we should be expecting also to see something happening in the labor market. So, I I I have to turn it around and say I actually don't think things are getting better here. I think things are going to get worse from here. and uh and that is what eventually also will put the the the top in the stock market whenever Whenever we see that final top that I you know we still we're still working on that. Mhm. But you've also mentioned in the past if I'm not mistaken the fact that low

low affordability doesn't always automatically cause a crash. It also has to do with a combination of consistent persistent job losses and that would then force to the get the price down or not. I'm not sure I've said exactly that but uh but yeah of course that we will need to see some Kind of a you can say you call probably a trigger that's what people always say that you know we need a trigger we need a something that sets us off I actually think that this is a slow it's an evolution that is developing you

can just look at the US consumers what is it that right now tells us that the US consumer is feeling better off not a lot and if you look at the consumer sentiment not a lot there tells us that things are getting you know are better At this point here actually it know seems that it's getting you know getting worse so I you know I know People would like to say that now it's getting better from where we are but we haven't seen the full ramifications or the full consequences of the rates that we have

seen. People have been able to hang in there for just you know until now but it seems like things are rolling over slowly and you're starting to see some oil been breaking down also which is an Indication that there is an activity slowdown in transportation also there start to be indication of slowdown in transportation around just most recently this we saw something also a little more positive here but but again these can be you know it's always which way are you looking at the trend or you looking at a small bounce when we see something

of a new development right so so I don't think we can all just just pick out you know the latest number to say this is Actually the new trend. It can be just a small bounce before we head lower. But as I said, I also think we saw small we have seen a small reaceleration in the in the coincident indicators for me which is the real economy and that can last. We actually did the same thing in 2007 right into the moment when they didn't rolled over and to me we have a uh crazy crazy

overvaluation of of so many you know different assets and we we have still the the the the anchor that Is keeping us down. I expect worse things to come but I still don't think we are at the end where where things will develop. And what other metrics tell you this? I mean if we look now at more like housing you you mentioned about the consumer confidence but there's also the parts of the jobless claims right that also needs to be investigated even though the wage growth remains solid also needs to outpace inflation and that's also

the whole Question then is if that inflation is in your perspective tamed or not because it will obviously define if then real wages actually are growing what's your outlook on this so short term you know when talking to like the next month or so I don't I mean It's up in the air. We can see, you know, we can be a boy or girl there when it comes to inflation as I see it. But in the longer time frame, I think we have a clear downtrend in inflation. And I'm actually a little Concerned that the

Fed is overreacting again uh as it seems to me in terms of inflation, focusing on inflation that did the same thing in September 2007, 200 October 2007 as well talking about inflation in a month where they actually saw a crash in the in the GDP numbers. So I think the Fed here are being too observant and too cautious about inflation which is now 2.3 CPI. I know the sentiments the expectation of inflation is are are higher but we know How it is with expectations is like what we saw the yesterday or we saw last week

or the last month is what we expect will continue to happen. What the situation is in the real in the business cycle and in the real economy is that there are it's the big wheel turning and if people are spending less the consumers which is which are the real economy starting to spend less then they will you know there will be a downward force on inflation and one thing that is still there is That you have still a lot of capacity and a lot of companies and they haven't start to shed that because after the

co you could see how actually everybody was expanding every everybody did well after all the stimulus coming out I think you're going to see that uh this is putting pressure down on inflation And we saw the latest development. Oil is now below. You may also find that chart there. I put that in and you can see how it's actually broken lower in the uh in The I think it was in April. We saw that and then stay down there. I think we've seen a bounce now. We'll see a bounce in oil now. But oil is

very often a very good indication of what is going to happen to uh to inflation as well. Expect inflation to soar higher at this point here. I also see some uh cautious signs in in commodities. Again, I could see it bounce for a couple of months, but I think the downward trend in inflation is the the the trend in Inflation is down at this point. And uh and I can only say that if the Fed keeps being so hawkish that they are now and keeping rates this high at a time where we actually, you know,

start to see a lot of slowdown, you know, at least in in the rest of the world as well, and you have this housing market that doesn't look too go good, then you potentially can create something that is much worse when the Fed is being too huish for too long. So I think they are In the process of making a big mistake here that they are not that they are f too overfocused on on inflation at this point where actually inflation is is completely under under um uh yeah under control here. I don't see any

problems with inflation as as what I see here and absolutely I think deflation will be be become the next problem. That's normally what the, you know, the Fed jumps from, you know, one end to the other and that's where they overreact and then You'll see we go from inflation to deflation and uh and that that's probably been the next fight that they're going to have. That's going to be disinflationary the disinflationary fight or the fight against the outright deflation. But even though like I mean now if we tie it back to kind of like the

topic of dlobalization and uh especially with the tariffs and um a more disrupted global trade system um don't you think that on the long term on A more secular level inflation would still more elevated and thereby maybe the hesitancy of of of Powell to maybe wait until all those things are settled until they might actually decrease those interest rates. Yeah. And I think maybe that is the overthinking. I mean there is a sometimes you know the people have a tendency to overthink and I think the overthinking here is that that they tend to think that

inflation is going to go up in the longer time frame and I think That can absolutely be correct and I think we have a new inflationary regime coming out. That's another story. But actually you can very well tell by you know the charts that we've seen inflation and we've seen especially rates going up to a degree now which tells us we are in a new inflationary regime which means this is this is big stuff. This is the the shift in 1981 when Fula killed inflation famously. Then we've seen it down to the 2020 when We

had what I call the inverse fula moment. The mo moment where they overstimulated the economy. So folk over was too hawkish or too you know bang the inflation down by by ris raising rates and now uh we see here that they are actually doing they did the quite opposite. They over overstimulated into a supply crisis and that has now reintroduced inflation to the system. But the problem is or the where we need to to stay uh you know levelheaded here Is that long-term shift is not the same as short-term development. And I think what you're

going to see is that you can have a short-term development to the downside in inflation that then will be taken over by a move up. So you can see this whipssaw kind of thing again just so that the inflation goes over now because the Fed's becoming or is overly cautious now and hawkish and that will then create the deflationary bust. you're going to see a recession and then They will come in with the guns blazing again once more to try to to fix things overreacting again and then I think you're going to see the the

unfolding of the next inflationary regime and I think that is also what the commodity charts are suggesting I think lower commodities lower oil to begin with to a point where you start to see where you see a new bottom and I think you'll then see something quite different from what we have seen over the last yeah what is it 40 years which is quite a long time frame but this is the this is how it works also in the long-term cycles that you will have these shifts from being an deflationary regime to being an inflationary

regime. And you can see that going well back to, you know, 1900. You can see how we've had, you know, three cycles since then. And if we now look at the more of the the bond market itself, like we've seen that the 10-year yield is still um hanging on to higher Levels. We're at 4.4, I think, on the 10 year. the 10 10 10 year and the three month and the 10 10 year and the two-year spreads remain heavily inverted. Often it's said that uh this inversion um creates recession after 12 24 months delay and

we are in it because it's since 2022 that this has been occurring. So this whole idea that we might expect in a recession is maybe then still on the table. But I guess it will also depend on those metrics that You were just talking about the housing market. If the Fed then sees okay now it starts faltering we need to intervene the first domino is about to fall then they'll start printing the markets is also kind of expecting this that's why they cannot control the the end uh uh end uh part of the the bond

year uh the bond it's a bit of a everything is is more of um a question of when will what happen right will the Fed be able to stimulate enough before this recession Then hits you've said that the labor market um is still looking pretty decent. That the jobless claims have been ticking, the continuing claims are ticking higher, that the initial claims remain low, so not recessionary, and that job openings are dropped towards the 2018 level, but are there maybe other numbers in the labor market that make you more pessimistic? Well, I mean, the the

continuing jobless claims are starting to to to look like they could They could start to move higher. I think that is a a thing. I think we we have already seen I mean the level of unemployment if you're not talking about the rate the the the percentage we have to think also that's there's a factor there also which is called the you know how many people what do you call that I can't remember I can't remember but the the number of people the percentage of people actually in the labor market that I had it right

on my yeah I had it On my tongue I can't remember but anyway it's there so but it means simply how many people are actually know saying we we're ready to to work in the in the in the in the market right or in the labor market we Um so if you look at if you look at the numbers of or the the number of unemployed people that has been moving uh moving up and and I think that is a worrying sign and again we are above levels now that normally will offset this uh there's

another Recessionary indicator which is called the piper sander recessionary indicator and you can see actually that has already triggered it doesn't mean immediate recession it just means that things are starting to unfold in a negative spiral kind of way that you'll you'll see you'll see that the uh things start to unfold it's called labor market participation. ation rate. That's what I what I was trying to say. I just labor force. Yeah. LPR. Yeah. So, uh so but But that is also an important factor obviously. But so in ter in terms of you know getting the

rate correct, the labor the unemployment rate but but the number of people unemployed is that moving up and that's what people also should focus on. Um so you know what is that that is worrying here? It's it's simply that we are we're not we're not seeing the labor market strengthening at this point and then we we're not and again we're seeing that at the time where the we we are in This no man's land you can say because we're also not seeing us deteriorate but I'm just fearing that what we normally see is as we

said also the the market spreads have been the yield spreads have been diver have been inverted and they come back up again and they uninvert that's the moment when things are starting to to unfold and we are just on that you know that level now for the for some of the shorter time frames we don't see the yield the short-term yield Starting to decline very rapidly or very strongly which is a normal sign also we should see into a into a um you know recession or into this the fast slowdown of the economy so so

things are still okay and uh it's only about when you see other signs that are the more leading signs from the housing market that eventually normally leads to a recession that's why I'm saying this is this is potentially unfolding and and again I I expect them to unfold because it's part Of the the way the business cycle works so But for now, the labor market if you can I can understand the Fed. They look at the labor market say what what's the problem with that? We don't need to to stimulate so much here but I'm

just fearing that they oversee the part of the housing market as well. Now if we if we look at also like the the way the Dixie is behaving because we've also addressed this in the last time we talked together and you've made a Prediction that it would hit more or less I think it was 96 97 um if I'm not mistaken the last prediction that you made and we've actually reached that pretty pretty close. I mean, it hit like 98, I think. Uh 99, so it it was pretty accurate. And now, um, what are you

expecting for the next move? I this wasn't this wasn't the hit that I expected. So, I just want to say no. No. So, again, things doesn't, you know, run in or develop in a in a Straight line. Uh, we were like that sometimes, but it actually has bounces. And I think what we see right now is a Dixie bounce. I think that Dixie bounce going to get worse into or worse or how you see it, it's going to be Yeah. bouncing into let's say a little more down now and then we go back up again

to 103 maybe 104 even I could see before we then head down again. So I think there's going to be a bounce which will take us down to the the level I expect. So I'll Still say 9567 around these levels could be where we head down to when we after this bounce here and that's the part that I expect to be where the crypto market the which will be most supportive of that kind of move in in Bitcoin and crypto market as well. But the but the hit that we had here wasn't it wasn't the

one I was expecting and we're now in the balance. So that's that's what I want to say now. I mean you you've also talked About like some some outlooks about uh then what it would do because you just mentioned crypto. Do you expect some kind of also big rallies then because the dollar is is losing in strength and that's usually correlated with more risk on appetite. What are the targets there? What do you expect? So for Bitcoin for quite some time I've had the target of at 148,000 around that level maybe higher could go all

the way to 160 but I think 148 would be uh Around the minimum we should see into the final top of that. I'll just have to say that uh yeah we we may it may not be as aggressive as a lot of people think. Uh and if I'm wrong then I'm really wrong because that means then we are moving into a a lock world and then it can go to 200,000 or something like that or two 300,000 maybe. But that's not my main that I again we always have to work in scenarios and I I'm

in the scenario right now where we have a moderate Development into a top which I think can top out of 148. That's my main scenario and in that scenario you could still see a lot of cryptos going quite you know uh to extreme levels. Um I see the uh I see the altcoins index at 3 and a half trillion or the market in the capitalization of that. What is that? That's the total index without Ethereum Bitcoin that can go to that level. we can see some extreme moves in in in some of these alts into

that phase and I Think that is you know what is driving that is the the rise in the uh in the uh global supply sorry the supply of of money the M2 rate that we we see the rise there and I think that is going to to happen for the next long time because what we have into the final part of the business cycle slowdown is exactly that the central banks comes out and they start to stimulate the economy to make sure that the economy is not going to fall into recession and that's that's What

we see now and I saw the last two months here we actually saw the global M2 just having another 1.2 two trillion in extra liquidity coming in which is not something we just see and hear about on the daily but that was just for for April and May alone and we had a lot of the you know uh I think it was three trillion in the first quarter alone also so so we are seeing a lot of liquidity coming in at this point and that is what is going to drive uh the the the crypto

Market and the and the bitcoin market and I I know all the bitcoin maximalists and and so on would like us to see that this is because there is now a new understanding of bitcoin and crypto is going to make change the world Well, there'll be a few crypto projects that's going to be fantastic in the long time frame. There's going to be the Amazon and the whatever it's going to be from the 2000s, but it's not going to be all 10,000 of them or how many there are. So, the the the the the liquidity

if coming in here is what is driving the growth in this and everybody's having, you know, it's come becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy now that when M2 goes up, Bitcoin goes up because everybody says so. So, it's like becoming that kind of, you know, uh and you know, I I see an end to it at some point. there will be an end to this to Bitcoin and it'll see a big top and uh and it's going to come down strongly and Then it'll have to show itself the the strength of Bitcoin into a potential recession. I

think that will be the real test for Bitcoin at some point and for a lot of cryptos they're going to get get crushed. So, so still expecting the the animal spirit to take over and then a lot of a lot of uh cryptos and altcoins tokens whatever they're called and and Bitcoin driving that pulling the liquidity liquidity in and then you start to see that circulating in that Space and then you have the whole whole thing going. So, you expect for Bitcoin more specifically uh a more short-term path towards what the 20,000 and then a

pullback or how would that movement look like? Yeah, I I have I work with different scenarios there because I think I we could see one where we I could see one where we actually, you know, get a new all-time high, we go to 120,000, then we see a deeper pullback uh down to 103,000 maybe. But I could Also see that we we actually have a more uh we have a bounce now in in Bitcoin going up to around the the level of 111,000 maybe there and then we go down again and we hit 8,000 at

that point. And that would be something people would not really understand and they would probably talk about, you know, an a double top, but that's the way the market works. They need it needs to consolidate. I think June is going to be good, but I think uh July may not be so Good. And I think the July will be the pullback before we head into the final showdown of the of the Bitcoin cycle this time. And you also have a more like close um let's say monitoring of Ethereum. Ethereum had um quite some uh some

losses in the last month. It's been performing highly poorly and uh it's been really painful for Ethereum holders. Do you see that coming back to its previous all-time high levels or even higher? And at the same time, oh Yeah, we we're just as I say, we're just starting to see what we call in the Ethereum phase in Swiss block. And what does mean does that mean that's when Ethereum starts to outperform Bitcoin? So, while Bitcoin is now struggling to get higher in that, you know, kind of, you know, volatile environment that I could see ahead

into highs, new highs, you'll actually see Ethereum starting to take over. And that is the that's good news for the for the altcoins because Normally when Ethereum starts to take over, you'll see uh that you have the the the largest move there. And that's where some of the capital have been been moving into Bitcoin and then coming into Ethereum and they're coming into the altcoins as well. and you start to see that rotation into other and more risky uh tokens, coins and whatever they called. Yeah. So, Ethereum see you know good good development there. I

think we're going to see the 6 6,100 500 maybe Even on Ethereum. So, quite a move from here still and that's in the still like which time frame? Oh, that will be to me I time frame. I normally refrain from answering but into the same kind of time frame as we we see after Bitcoin probably will top out before if you if you study the top into 2021 you'll actually see that Bitcoin was the one first one to top out and then you saw the and this is the top we had early 21. The second

one was actually part of a Correction, but I don't want to get into that. But the first top in there, you'll actually see how Bitcoin actually topped out first and then you saw Ethereum and the altcoins coming after because then when Bitcoin starts to slow, the the capital rotation goes into these. So, so I would think that Bitcoin tops out late summer, maybe maybe in the beginning of of this uh of the autumn, and then you'll see the uh the altcoins and Ethereum topping out later in the Autumn. And so then in terms of the

stock market because that's usually also highly correlated or moves together in the same direction. Um you've mentioned that you have a target that was last time and if not mistaken you mentioned something around 6,500 for the S&P 500. Do you see that pattern also being similar for the equity market? Yeah, something. Yeah, because that's it's risk assets and risk assets will will move together there to in as I see it When when we see a top in the risk assets, you'll start to see that um that uh yeah, there will be a top. Maybe at

the same time with Bitcoin, I could envision that with the with the bit with the with with the S&P and I I have to lift my target on the S&P. So, I actually think 60 6,800 is now uh is more uh you know appropriate or more correct target. So around 68 uh would be uh my my target for S&P now and NASDAQ around 25,000 but I could see it go as Crazy at 28,000. So still some upside in in in the indices. Uh but I think it's going to be quite strong. I don't think it's

going to be strong into the summer. As I said with Bitcoin, I think July can be poor. I think maybe we'll see that kind of a correction also with the S&P and the NASDAQ into the summer. You'll see some sideways movement. G will start to talk about a double top and then you're going to see the last blow into um into the into the autumn because I Think that is when the time I mean again they will have to be careful here because we see the reaceleration of the of the of the of the of

the economy but as as you know still that we have the the recession indicator the leading indicator crossing over that would give the timeline of when we should see that kind of top in the in the S&P and the NASDAQ potentially so let's see how it how it works in real life and which which uh precisely do you see it more Like uh growth stocks. Um what what exactly uh where do you see the biggest performance actually being done or made by which stocks? Well, I think there will be a good upside to to maybe

smaller stocks. I think when we start to see the circulation of uh again you have to think that when liquidity starts to become I mean in abundance see here you'll see that with the smaller uh coins and the uh you know all the memes and so on which I think can do well in This phase. You probably also see that some of the more speculative stocks will do do well here. So, you've seen the heavy lifting by the the fang stocks and I still think there'll be a lot of more upside there. I think even

I I had a call in December on Tesla saying I think we can crash here. I actually think now we can see maybe an all-time high to Tesla coming get into the next phase here and I think they'll still do a lot of the heavy lifting, but you're going To see that it will then also happen a rotation there into the final phase there. So, I could see that some small cap stocks could do extremely well into that phase. Again, it's the animal spirit. And when that starts to happen and we start to have the

no more talk about tariffs, everything is fine again. The economy is not in recession. We are now I mean people start to see that you know the the ones coming out in April there talking about that was maybe a Little premature a little mature premature on that. And I think that that kind of spirit will will start to build. The animal spirit will build and you'll start to see people trying to find oh where can we jump into something that will give us you know the the two times or three times in in returns and

not just the 5 10% we expect on you know bitcoin. So I think that is the that's the normal thing that we will see that's the normal cycle that uh will will Happen there. So yeah I could see small small caps technically is a technology small caps could do know extremely well into that phase. Um, so it will be I can see clearly now, the rain is gone type of song. Uh, yeah. Yeah, exactly. You can see clearly now. Yeah. And, um, we've also talked about gold last time and you've you you did mention that

it would pull back as of uh 3,200 which did not happen to my great joy. Um, it it uh it hoovered up all the way up to 3,500 Uh and now it's stabilized around 3,336 uh an ounce. And you've mentioned as well that one of the indicators where you think it's over not necessarily overbought but is highly elevated in terms of level is the the gold silver ratio. What are other indicators that well first of all how do you look back on that on that let's say prediction or forecast? Yeah, I I think if you

look at gold and silver, you see still that silver has is Nowhere near all-time highs. That's simply to put, right? And you see the same with platinum and you see the same with the gold miners index. So, you have to sit always and wonder, I mean, if everybody's crazy around you, is it really you that is crazy or is it the everybody else, right? And uh and uh I think probably this indicates that something is maybe some people have been front running the buying in gold. I mean again as I've said I will be the

biggest Gold bull um that when when in due time but as I also see Dixie going into 1221 into the final phase of this uh cycle here into the into recession I don't think any any you know uh um uh precious metal is going to do well in there so we'll have to see and you call it now it's it's it's stabilizing here where we are at could also be that it's a it's a putting in a larger top gold I'm not necessarily saying it will because now it does look like it's you know it

has a Revival of uh in in the last few weeks and that's good but I still think that there will be a reckoning a day of reckoning where we will need to find out whether it's silver gold miners and platinum that are telling the truth or it's gold and you know with the whole inflation narrative that we have had for so long and you know the world is falling apart for you know whatever reason because of inflation people will be moving into gold that goes without Saying we have seen also central banks buying and that

that is also correct but we have not seen any kind of illquid fallout out and if I'm right on the things where we see that the earth is opening up again and you see stocks are plummeting and you're seeing gigantic losses in the in the stock market and in crypto and so on liquidity will become a factor or shortage of liquidity will become a factor and I think in that environment you will not see precious Metal doing partic particularly well again people always do not remember that the reason you say you should have gold into

a crisis is because gold will then perform its finest duty which is create and make sure that you got liquidity in the moment where you need it. There will be times in a deflationary bust where you don't have liquidity and having gold is a security to get liquidity. It's going to get you know the dollars which can help you in your particular Situation. It's not because gold just does well there because it's a it's a in that environment itself is where gold is not doing well that 2008 March to October 6 months and it dropped

35% uh silver dropped 60%. you know and again 35% 40% 50% into a very bad deflationary bust yes it's overperformed by far what I expected you know hands down on that it's correct but still I would be cautious into that kind of phase but for now yeah I mean why not and I'll just Wait buying it until we have seen that kind of correction and until the moment where silver and platinum and so on catches up and we have to remember everybody has been forecasting that silver will be catching up to gold for the last

two years and it hasn't so again we need to see what what is who is actually in the driver's seat here and I think that gold has been front running things a little here and and when you things are being front run it may also Pull back bigger than people expect so that could be a good time for that but the next phase here I mean with the deflation with the potential stackflation because we haven't talked about that today but coming after when the Fed comes out and they we are in a new inflationary regime

I mean the only thing you want to hold in that in stackflation environment is precious metal it'll be gold it'll be silver it will be the gold miners it'll be Platinum and that phase is going to come and it's going to last for longer And if you look at a particular ratios, if you look at the the S&P versus gold ratio, you'll actually see that we have a very very interesting development there, which looks like something we saw back in 1971 when Nixon came off the gold standard or he, you know, temporarily took it off.

So I think we we we're looking at a big shift. The only thing is just like with commodities where we Also in a new bull market that we can see a big pullback in that price before we get to the real move. and and people seem to expect that things are just going to go you know straight up from here and it very rarely happens and we haven't seen the 10 times in gold that we saw in in let's say or five times let's say in 7077 to 79 I think it was uh you had

two years and it went up five times because we're not in that kind of environment We're in an environment right now where we are where people have been speculating about you must own gold and I think it's absolutely correct everybody should own some portion of gold it's important I mean, it's imperative if you're an investor, you hold gold and you'll keep building your position in gold. That's important, but it's not the same as it would go up immediat, you know, straight from here, right? Because I I just don't think it's The right environment for that.

But having said that, I could see gold at 15,000, 20,000, 30,000 per ounce going into a 105 years period. No problem with that. Uh because I think we'll have a a very very severe crisis which will require that the central bank comes out in in in a scale we've never seen before. Well, it's it's true. I mean, obviously, it's also a good sign when it consolidates when it corrects. The the whole question Obviously is by how much and to which levels. But it's also interesting to see and it's also with the discussion I had with

many different guests is that gold is also a bit up not necessarily for inflation, but also because of the monetary safety it gives. So the recession fears especially geopolitical risks and as as you mentioned as well the 1970s have been also a big catalyst in that because we've seen similar environments with different types of Crisis around the world. So it could also be that it leads because of that reason and that silver will catch up regard how gold will perform. So gold could still maybe maintain its level and even go higher while still not excluding

the fact that the ratio would decrease because silver would then um have it spin up and it also may be tied to somewhat weak industrial demand on on the silver uh on the silver side as well. No, but you 100% agree. I can see I could see a scenario like that. But you know it 120 21 22 on the Dixie normally takes its um you know takes a beating on on gold and silver and I probably will wait for that kind of moment to then jump into it and then see if we don't get some

kind of you know you know meaningful correction in that but as I said in what is coming down the road everybody should be focusing on building gold reserves gold position gold whatever and physical gold is Absolutely a necessity and I'm doing the same myself as well I mean even these prices I will start buying in and I buy in and and and you know keep building my physical position there as well. So to wrap up a little bit to to make it nice compact and juicy um we could say that if I if I just

uh summarize or try to summarize what we talked about the housing is is kind of seeing uh we're seeing cracks that will trigger the the Fed to intervene if it gets bad enough. The labor market is cracking, but it's still doing pretty well relatively like in the in the meantime, we might see an uptick in risk on sentiment that will peak start peing as of after the summer. So after July, August, up until autumn and get that blow off top from from that moment on, how would you then position right now if you have like

just a blank sheet? You would give some actionable uh trading ideas. I mean, again, it it depends a lot of people's risk profiles Here. So, of course, this is not uh this is not recommendation or anything like that. I think I'm wise enough, which may be stupid, but uh but I think at least I am to ride the what I call the blowoff top. So, I'll stay with risk asset there. I'm still starting to build the the more defensive position and I know when I think I'll be moving into that in more, you know, in

a more aggressively way. But for now, I think I I'll write the the blowoff top because I think It's, you know, if you sit there and you're left on the on the station with a 10 15% higher top coming and you're just sitting there and you're feeling the, you know, the FOMO also on that and I think there's more upside to what we go. I mean, that's that's what the business cycle says. This is what the the market says, the waves, fibric extensions I got. So, I'm I'm staying with that, but I'm very aware that

when we start to see the euphoria coming into the market, I Will be pulling my my money out. I'll be pulling my my my you know putting my positions into more more secure things and one of these things will be will be the dollar at some point. So when we get down to around the 95 96 I hope that they everybody will say oh the dollar is dying. I hope that's the kind of you know narrative we'll have out there and it's uh you know crypto is taking over the dollar is dying and this is

the new parach you're just a a boomer and that's Why I don't understand that. that that's the narrative I hope for, right? Because then you will start to see that uh that then I'll start to buying in on on position on on dollar uh which will give me some dollar liquidity, you know, strength there and then we'll see what happens uh into that and again this is where this whips because that is into the the phase where where things the the ground opens up and with that happens then the dollar will do extremely well And

that we're going to see the 120 222 on the Dixie which can be a good uh good position then also you'll see yields coming down strongly and you'll see bonds doing well. So that's another phase and then the third phase will be the phase where where we actually have to get into gold and gold miners and and the likes and say and building our you know positions even and actually getting in very very aggressively because I think you're going to see a commodity Bull precious metals but also commodity bull starting when the Fed comes out.

So it's really about how aggressive you want to be and how you know much what much you want to frontr run the next kind of phase that I see. Can I be wrong on the faces? Yes, I can. But for now, we're in the blowoff top and I try to to ride it and then see if I am wise enough to to get out in time. Great. Henrik, thanks a lot for uh this uh this update. Is there maybe like any other things? So, you've you've also a website on Swissborg. Uh people can also subscribe

to your regular macro updates. Is there anything you want to share or conclude the the the conversation with? Yeah. So really the best way to get hold of me is to to to look me up on X Henrik Seabberg and then there will be links to to where I can please do not you know follow any of the fake links or any of the scammers but uh but this is where people up to you know follow my profile and that's it You know make sure you you look for the blue tick. So that's that's what

I can say and else you know it's a Swiss blog but there will those links will be also at the on on X so you can find it there. I also put all the links about your profile and the Swiss book website on the description below. Henrik, thanks a lot. I'm looking forward to our next conversation. Maybe perhaps next conversation will be with Francis and Matt. That sounds amazing. I look Forward to that. So, u Thank you. Appreciate it. Thank you, Henry. Y thank you. [Music] Bye. [Music] Hey, hey, hey. [Music]