[Music] [Applause] [Music] [Applause] yeah warning this video and all other videos on this channel for entertainment purposes only of this video and all other videos on this channel are the opinions of the Creator only and do not constitute legal trading investment or financial advice of any kind investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail cents lose money do not invest in capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all all right hello and welcome to camel Finance I'm your boy camel and today is the most important jobs data of our life okay now it might be a bit hyperbolic his words not mine but there's been an awful lot of people asking me questions along these lines right have we got a daily cycle low where I originally had it did we just print a slightly later but legal day 66 low there's a whole heap of these questions did the cycle low fail and stopped out do we have to adjust the count as I said is 85 to 87K next and how do I know all of this so I'm going to run through all of this in detail because there's many many questions and I'll show you my rationale for this okay time we've got a jobs read and it is pretty important I don't know I don't know if it's the most important of our life but here's why the jobs report matters today okay the report could either confirm or dispel fears that the FED will puse rates in 2025 and if I pull up the CME right here you can see that we are currently pricing in a 93% probability that January's fomc at the end of this month the 29th we are going to see a pause in rate hikes and the reason this kind of matters so much is because rates are already too restrictive but for some reason the FED is hellbent on creating this very strange control demolition type environment according to this crackpot camel on the internet at least now back to this jobs thing okay the context after the December fomc hinted at ending rate Cuts in 2025 which as I showed you is already priced in stronger than expected data created fears of app pause and this has pressured stocks driving the S&P lower albeit into a low and so if I pull up an S&P 500 chart you can see we are right in the timing band to see a daily cycle low we only really need to see a break Above This downward sloping red to confirm that is on like Donkey Kong and if we were to fail the cycle here then that would set up a decline into a weekly cycle low so from a cycle perspective nothing too out of the ordinary but the reason this jobs report is so crucial is that the rate Cuts drove the 2024 rally and If the Fed pauses it creates a headwind for equities and of note here because that Weekly cycle low is coming into focus it wouldn't be that out of the ordinary right remember the cycle are in control and everything else is a narrative that is fitted to explain away the price action so if we were to start a decline into a weekly cycle low we could certainly use a bad jobs data report as the narrative to explain away that decline into the weekly cycle low and whilst no rate cut is expected in January this could easily shape the fed's tone on future policy so there's a couple of Market scenarios here number one the data comes in too hot and the FED pause fears will rise if they're just right we could see cuts into 2025 a huge repricing on the CME in favor of putting a new 25 basis point cut on the table and if the job state is too cold then we're going to see growth fears emerge so in scenario one more than 200k jobs added and unemployment below 4. 1% this will likely mean that stocks drop 1% treasury yields jump towards 5% pressuring equities small caps leading the decline moderate losses in the defensive sector we may also see a 10-year treasury yield towards 5% which of course will further pressure equities we'll see the dollar Index rally somewhere around 1% approaching 110 gold will probably drop sharply from a cycle perspective it wouldn't be out of the ordinary to expect that right because we know we've got a daily cycle low coming into focus in the not too distant future particularly if I turn on my Cycles so we may well confirm an early one here that's definitely one scenario that's on the table since we are indeed inside of that window but again from a cycle perspective if we are to get a flush to a new set of lower lows then that of course would make sense from a cycle perspective scenario 2 is that everything is just right okay we had somewhere between 50k and 200k jobs unemployment sits somewhere between 4. 1 and 4.
3% and this could lead to a modest relief r across all the indexes we could see small caps and Tech lead the gains the yield on the 10e should start to drop as the dollar weakens slightly and this would also fit a cycle perspective since the Dixie is in that timing window now to start a decline into another daily cycle low and of course if this is to happen then that would likely force that gold rally as I was just talking about a minute ago which would see this breakout actually be confirmed because of where the daily cycle low is I still think we would have to get some kind of breakout retest and then resumption and that would give us a daily cycle low and of course we could force a weekly cycle low in here and scenario 3 is that it comes in two Cults this would be less than 50k jobs added unemployment spiking above 4. 3% there might be an initial rally bad news equals rate Cuts right but growth fears will follow pressure in cyclicals defensive sectors will likely outperform there hen year treasury yield will drop sharply nearing 4 and a half% the dollar Index will fall around 1% gold rallies harder on a week of dollar and so the bottom line is the biggest risk is a too hot report today which will push yields above 5% and intensify the sell-off which of course would be on our way for a weekly cycle low in the stock market I also think it would be kind of bad from a technical damage perspective since if this cycle fails then it puts my yellow squiggle on the table doesn't it the base case outcome is a goldilock number somewhere between 100K and 125k job ads and that will calm the FED pause fears and Spark a relief rally and of course we should see this 93% reprice in favor of cuts one more thing that I think is a note here is again we are early in a daily cycle now it doesn't mean we couldn't have had a day three left trans ated high and then start to break down but on a balance of probabilities even if it is a left translation and a fail you'd at least expect another week of either chop or upside here before it truly fails so from a cycle perspective I would suggest that the job state is not going to be that bad knowing as well that gold is working on a breakout retest into that cycle low and resumption again speaks to the jobs data not being super bad the dollar as I showed you earlier from a cycle perspective is ready to have a pullback into a daily cycle low which again fits the idea that this job data won't be too bad and we're going to covered Bitcoin in a great detail in a minute but at the moment it's early in its cycle as well so hold that thought we'll come back to do Bitcoin as I said this jobs data comes out at half one today and I would suggest to you you don't really need to pay attention to the jobs data just watch the market reactions know the invalidation levels they have not changed since the video from two days ago where I was sort of ranting and raving about not caring what the intraday price movements are as long as we have not been stopped out because the stops are the invalidation so so long as we trade higher then I think happy days and we say the jobs state is okay and if I get stopped out across the board and we'll say Okay bad jobs data invalidations and heading towards weekly cycle lows there's still a whole heap of liquidations going on at the moment but this kind of makes me think that we are shaking liquidity from the tree we are shaking out the weak hands and the people that don't know what they're doing right into a cycle low before we then allow this thing to rip higher so doesn't mean I'm right about that it just feels awfully suspect that we're having these big sets of liquidations right into the timing window for a cycle low and is anything we're seeing out of the ordinary well not according to crypto con as he shows here this is the 1st of January we chop around for a bit find a low and then blast off in cycle two we did the same thing this is January big puke and then off we went in cycle 3 you can see that again early January we sold off into a daily cycle low and then blasted higher and right now we have done the same thing sold off into a cycle low looking to blast higher this is still my base case until such time as I'm stopped out if I'm not stopped out then this trade remains valid something else to point out here if you measure this amount of days this is roughly equal to this right here so I would suggest to you we've seen enough flush we're in that timing window and all we need now is just some narrative I.
