welcome back to plan B on YouTube today we analyze January closing values of the Bitcoin price RSI moving average realized price stock to flow and as always the conclusion is in the last part of the video so please stick to the end bitcoin price we have a new monthly close all-time high in Bitcoin it's $102,000 not only is it a new monthly close it's also the first monthly close above 100K so I know it feels a bit disappointing um and that we should be higher with Trump and the ETF inflow micro strategy and and all
that it feels a bit delayed but I guess we need a little bit of patience because as we discussed in last videos new alltime highs which are basically the red dots it's RSI we come back to that in a minute but the the new alltime Highs are clustered so once there is an alltime high it's very likely there will be another alltime high and uh and and you can see that very clearly from this chart so I expect a lot more all-time highs this year um and this is exactly by the way why I prefer
the stock to flow model over for example the power low model the uh clustered nonlinear jumps um are what defines the price of Bitcoin and it's not gradually over time um it's especially those those short periods of time where the the Bitcoin jumps to the next level it's also the basis for my stock to flow trading rule uh that says that all the Bitcoin gains are six months before the halfing until 1880 months after the halfing every halfing it's the same pattern and uh well up till now it also holds for this 2024 halfing so
if we talk about colors look at the RSI the relative strength index um it's 76 right now orange 76 is above 50 so it's an uptrend uh from 14 months right it's a relative strength index is calculated over a certain period it's 14 month uh so there is a uptrend not as steep as a red uh period would be with rsis of 80 and higher RSI is 76 so it's a um relatively okay uptrend but not the foral part the Orange is very comparable to the end of 2020 or even more to the beginning of
2017 so we had orange yellow orange same here orange yellow orange or even if we compare to 2013 the orange was the start of this well cluster of alltime highs if you will cluster of of um rsis um of 80 or higher and I expect many months uh this year in 2025 with an RSI of 80 or higher in fact to be specific uh I expect at least three possibly four or five months of red dots uh which means an I of 80 and higher now what's very interesting if we look historically at those points
um where the RSI was 80 or higher then we'll see that the average return in that periods in those periods in that red dot areas was 40% plus so that means a one month of 40% plus would be from today's 100K 140 in February and well since I expect multiple months of red dots uh at least three three times 40% would bring us from 100K to 270k which is about here somewhere this the 300K line so that's the absolute minimum bitcoin price that I expect in 2025 5 270,000 now if we look at four months
of 40% that would bring the 100 current 100K to 380,000 and five months would even bring it to $530,000 so that's above this dotted line um so we'll see we'll see what happens uh these numbers that 270 380 and 530,000 Bitcoin are much higher than what most people expect in fact today's poll on Twitter on X shows that three out of four people can't even imagine one single plus 40% monthly move because they haven't been in those periods they don't know what it is they think that's a thing of the past and it can't happen
in the future what I think it will most certainly happen again very interesting to see 200 week moving average the black line it's at 44 right now up 1,000k from uh last month from December and in my opinion that that slow increase will go faster uh next couple of months so I think the black line the moving average will curve upwards like it did in 2020 21 2017 and here in 2013 so I think this black line will curve upwards then realize price The Gray Line it's the cost price of the buyers of the last
two years right here's a two years realized price cost price of the onchain buyers last two years it is $74,000 up from 71 in December and by the way the total realized price so of all the onchain buyers ever is 43,000 so that's same level comparable level to the 200 week moving average but we see is that uh the realized prices are increasing uh about 5% % each month uh that's good that's a that's a bull market thing but it's less than I expected I expect 10% or 20% uh increases in realized prices this year
so that that means that that prices have to go up considerably to make that happen now for the stock to flow um you know it's it it predicts this uh average price of 500 about $500,000 for the uh haling period 2024 to 2028 with a standard deviation of course it's not it will not be exactly 500,000 so the standard deviation is two times that 1 million or divide it by two 250k and mind you most other models for example the power low model uh expect much lower prices they expect something like we go to from
the current 100,000 to a 200,000 top this year and then we crash back to below 100K so that's much lower than even the lower band uh of the stock to flow model of 250k and also lower than the 270,000 that we talked about based on three 40% uh increases this year three red dots three RSI months of 80 plus so very interesting to see what happens next and as always all models are wrong some are useful models are simplifications of reality thanks for watching and see you next time
