my first guest is one of the world's leading experts on the Middle East he's professor at Middle East studies at Princeton University in the United States and covers the region very closely I appreciate you joining us Professor Bernard hiel there uh thank you very much your first response to what has happened in the last 48 hours in particular the volley of air strikes that have hit beut the assassination of Hassan nasah and several other senior commanders of the hisbah is this endgame Dr hiel or would you see now an inevitable escalation of this conflict so
first I think first let me just say it's nice to be with you I uh I think uh everyone has been surprised at Israel's ability to penetrate the uh Hezbollah and the Islamic revolutionary guard core of Iran um through its intelligence and uh and Communications uh capacities and no one could have predicted this devastating set of attacks that would basically uh Wipe Out the leadership of hasbalah and not just the first rank but the second rank leadership as well so I do not think that this is the end of Hezbollah however healah is the crown
jewel of Iran's um uh non-state actors the proxies that it has uh that it has subsidized and trained and armed throughout the at least from Iraq to Syria to Lebanon and Yemen and Iran will make sure that Hezbollah survives how Iran does this is not clear uh but no one would have been able to predict uh the success of Israel these last few weeks but are we going to see an escalation of the conflict uh because if what you're saying happens will Iran be drawn into this battle more directly from using the Hezbollah as a
proxy could now Iran get more directly involved Professor hio no I I don't think Iran is interested in a direct battle it's very clear that the Iranian president who came to the United Nations just a few days ago uh made clear that he wants to deescalate uh because the Iranians realize that if this becomes an allout war between Iran and Israel America the United States will come into the battle on the side of Israel and Iran will be devastated militarily uh so Iran does not want to attack uh or get involved directly it wishes to
do so through its proxies and through the non-state actors that it has uh created and the coordination between these various non-state actors so you see that the huis and Yemen are now helping by launching missiles at Israel helping Hezbollah that is and helping the Hamas and Gaza but effectively Israel has uh more or less decimated if not destroyed Hamas militarily not politically and has done something quite similar not quite as devastating to Hezbollah let's uh talk about the Hezbollah for a moment this uh force of which very little is perhaps known do you believe that
given what has happened in the last 72 hours Hezbollah itself will find it difficult to revive uh from these setbacks or is the fear that they could hit back with even greater in intensity can hisbah actually regroup his is that a fear that they could actually get even more uh intense in their attacks on Israel well it'll definitely take a while to regroup but Hezbollah has uh very you know ballistic missiles that have Precision Precision guided uh Warheads those are still under the control of Iran so I think whatever Hezbollah does will be at the
instructions of Iran um and so far they have not used these ballistic missiles against it Israel so that means that the Iranians still control hezbollah's decision making the other thing about healah that should be noted by your listeners and and Watchers is that hasbalah is not popular in Lebanon I mean there is a large uh uh percentage of the population of Lebanon mainly Sunni Muslims and Christians uh as well as some Shiites who do not like the fact that Hezbollah does Iran's bidding and has dragged Lebanon into a war that most Lebanese if not all
Lebanese do not want with Israel you're saying most Lebanese do not want a war with Israel but do you believe Israel therefore could use this opportunity now to launch a ground offensive in Lebanon of the kind that they've done with the Hamas in Gaza is that a real possibility now Professor hiel I mean it's a possibility I think it would be a big mistake if Israel does this the idea is that if Israel takes a a a a buffer zone uh controls a buffer zone in Lebanon it could then negotiate that buffer zone uh bringing
in the Lebanese Army rather than healah in that area and then have uh calm and peace on its border I think that's the logic of an Israel Invasion it they've done this this would be the fourth if the Israelis invade this would be the fourth invasion of Lebanon since n beginning in 1978 then 1982 then 2006 and each time Israel has done this it has not achieved it its uh strategic goals so I think it would be a mistake and so far I think Israel realizes that it's had remarkable success with its air campaign and
its intelligence uh attacks that I'm not sure a ground campaign is necessary that's still open that's still an open question the the other key question Professor hikel is the growing division seemingly in the Arab world over how this is playing out the so-called access of resistance led by Iran that includes uh country countes like Yemen the hutis the hisbah the proxies on one side and then you have Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Sunni countries that perhaps do not want to see the Islamic radicalism spread far and wide in the manner that Iran would like to
are we going to now see an even greater divide within the Arab world over what happens next yeah absolutely there's a division in the Arab world and it's a division that's between so-called moderate uh states that are allied with the United States and states that form part of this a this so-called axis of resistance and there's also a divide between sunnis and shis as well with the exception of Palestine where the the sunnis the Sunni Hamas has allied with Iran uh the other the other uh sunnis have not allied with Iran and they would they
many of them are privately quite happy at seeing the uh Devastation that has been inflicted on heah lately uh one final question Professor hiel how are you going to therefore see the next few months panning out uh we we will complete one year since the Israeli offensive after the terror attack against Hamas uh now we see fresh fronts opening up the latest in Lebanon are we going to see any solution professor hiel in the near term at all do you see any kind of deescalation I don't see a solution but I see it at the
possibility of deescalation um that's possible but but but what would be the trigger for a deescalation do you believe a deescalation could take place post the US Presidential November elections is that the next big moment to look out for because there are many who see who believe Israel now sees this as a moment to go ahead a Tipping Point for them to Simply Crush their enemies that lie around them take advantage of what has happened in recent uh days and weeks yeah I mean the Israelis are definitely on a role and they will continue to
weaken their enemy but it's also clear that the Americans are not likely to put any pressure on the Israelis St and I think that the election results uh whether it's uh vice president Harris or president Trump uh there either of them are unlikely to put pressure on Israel to stop uh their attacks on Iran proxies remember also that the Americans are fighting Iran's proxies in Yemen for example so Israel and America is on the same side in very very many of these conflicts Professor hiel for joining us and giving us the big picture appreciate you
joining me there from Princeton University
