Okay, bad example. Gavin Newsome is the governor of California, home to 12% of all Americans and 50% of all Mexicans. [applause] On the upside, Newsome is the only governor, with the possible exception of Christine Noom, who looks like they could do.
He said he'd put a 100,000 cops on the street. This is the complete opposite of Gavin. Gavin brings in homeless.
Gavin encourages illegal immigration, takes taxpayer money to [music] pay for their healthcare. Gavin doesn't run a government efficiently. We We have so much fraud inside [music] California.
Nobody expected Bill Maher to be the one who finally pulled the curtain back on Gavin Newsome's quiet 2025 presidential run, but that's exactly what happened on live TV. He took the gloves off, turned on the whole campaign, and tore it apart line by line without easing into a single moment. But before we move further, if you enjoy short commentary videos with full breakdowns, take just two seconds to subscribe to the channel.
[music] All right, back to the video. Okay, bad example. Gavin Newsome is the governor of California, home to 12% of all Americans and 50% of all Mexicans.
[applause] On the upside, Nuome is the only governor, with the possible exception of Christy Noom, who looks like they could do [applause and cheering] [laughter] and at 6'3 and 215 lbs, he's actually the height and weight Trump claims to be. [applause] I don't want to say [laughter] I don't want to say he really really wants to be the guy who steps in if the current nominee goes down, but he gets an alert on his phone every time Biden can't think of a word. [laughter] Everyone in Washington already knows the quiet truth about Gavin Newsome in 2026.
The governor of California openly wants to be the next Democratic presidential nominee and nobody around him is bothering to deny the reality anymore. Fresh national polling from Emerson College released in May 2026 placed his Democratic primary support at only 16%. Pete Budajed sat ahead of him at 18% across the exact same survey window.
From Mars point of view, the whole thing has become one long slow motion presidential campaign happening in plain daylight. The governor runs the single most populous state in America, home to roughly 39 million residents with a state economy larger than most countries on Earth and still cannot pull ahead of a former cabinet secretary who left office years ago. Terrorists, shifts, swallen, but Gavin [music] doesn't get the hint.
Someone asked him if he was running for president. Here's what he said. Watch.
That moment will arrive when it arrives. You'll know it. it, you know, you know, sort of hits you not just here, it hits you here.
Uh there's a congruency in [music] the Philly in those terms. And has your family giving you a deadline? And uh no one's get there's no such thing as a deadline in these things.
Somebody call a medic. [music] The only reason he was a front runner is because he looked and sounded the part. Now he can't even do that.
[music] And his record is about to be on full display every day. Like a nudist at a barbecue. Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide.
warts and all people are going to lose their appetite. The moment will arrive when it arrives. There is no deadline on these things.
The announcement will hit him here and here with a congruency between the two feelings. Honestly, this is exactly the type of answer that quietly ends serious presidential campaigns long before they ever officially begin. Trust me, no voter in 2026 is waiting around for a governor to describe his own future announcement using the word congruency.
Some critics agree that voters forgave rehearsed political language from an older era of American politics. The modern voter in 2026 finds this specific tone embarrassing. And the ratings on his media appearances keep proving the point every single week.
And when you consider that combined with the fact that he ain't running for the next election in 2028, well, who is it that's going to come along that's going to convince you that you need to stand behind them and support them and that they're going to be about what you voted them to be about? That's where it gets tricky. So now it comes to Gavin Newsome coming down the pike.
Looks very smooth, hair slick back, looking like a want to be Pat Riley, coaching, former coach, now president of basketball operations. The hair works, the suits look good. looks very presidential, very articulate, smooth, tall, handsome, the whole bit.
Some critics agree Stephen A just spotted the exact problem destroying the Newsome presidential run on live national television. The suit works, the hair works, the height works beautifully for the camera lens. Looking the part is no longer enough in 2026 to actually win the Democratic primary.
National primary polling tracked by Nate Silver's race to the White House aggregation showed Nuome's support falling from roughly 25% at the start of January 2026 to about 15% by midyear. Prediction market odds of Newsome actually winning the nomination also fell from above 35% in early January to about 23% across the exact same tracking window. Voters aren't really savvy about the issues, but they do have it.
They have made it clear what is important to them. Authenticity, balls, and charisma. Trump has that package, and so does Federman.
He's only been a senator 2 years, and he's already more famous than most of his colleagues. Quick, I dare you to name this sadl looking lady from Washington State who's been in the Senate for 30 years. You can't teach charisma or balls.
Fedterman is that rare Democrat who's not afraid to put the woke nonsense peddlers in his own party in their place, saying things like, "Wanting a secure border and realizing that it was out of control, that doesn't mean you're a xenophobe or a racist. " He's been unequivocally pro- Israel, as are most Americans. And when pro Palestinian protesters showed up at his home, he went up on the roof and waved an Israeli flag.
[applause] Real voters now reward three qualities above everything else in modern American politics. Authenticity, boldness, and real personal charisma. John Federman carries all three in large amounts.
And American voters already know it on site the moment he walks into a room. Gavin Newsome has the suit, the hair, and the smooth news anchor voice, but almost nobody in the country actually describes him as authentic or bold in regular daily conversation. In Mars view, this is exactly the mismatch quietly damaging the Newsome brand everywhere outside California.
Modern voters can smell a prepared performance from a mile away. And Newsome's biggest political problem is that he looks and sounds like one every single time he opens his mouth on camera. Tom, as the only current living Gavin Newsome impersonator, [laughter] do you think after this riot fest, he is still an option for 2028?
Yeah, he just has to keep he's he thinks he's going to charm people over by just kind of agreeing with them. He'll start every I appreciate that. I [laughter] appreciate that.
They'll make a point. They'll cra, you know, he has people on his podcast. They destroy his point of view.
I appreciate that. I'm going to look at that. I'm going to have a look at that.
[laughter] Um I can't even believe there's so many good things in that monologue, Greg. They I love that clip of CNN. I can't believe they have that guy.
It's like self flagagillation. Harry Anton. Yes.
Har. His name is Harry. I love the guy.
Think about this for one honest second. Nuome launched his own political podcast in 2025 as a direct attempt to look like a serious national candidate in long- form conversation with the public. Then he invited several high-profile conservative guests onto the show.
Then he simply said, "I appreciate that. " to almost every single argument they made against his own political side. Some critics argue the whole podcast idea quietly backfired because American voters watched the sitting governor fail to defend his own political record in real time on his own show.
He said he put a 100,000 cops on the street. This is the complete opposite of Gavin. Gavin brings in homeless.
Gavin encourages illegal immigration, takes taxpayer money to pay for their healthcare. Gavin doesn't run a government efficiently. We we have so much fraud inside California and he's actually a failed state governor where his population has dropped.
We're going to have fewer people living in California. And then what your earlier story he goes against the California voters where 61% of them put into the constitution to [music] have a fair redistricting. The full California record Gavin Newsome is now carrying everywhere he travels on his quiet national campaign is public, documented, and brutal.
Public Census Bureau figures released in early 2026 confirmed California lost 229,077 residents to other states between July 2024 and July 2025, the largest net domestic migration loss of any state in the entire country for that year. The California Legislative Analysts Office projected an $18 billion budget deficit for the 2026 to 2027 fiscal year in a report released in November 2025. Overall, state spending has climbed by more than $100 billion since 2020 across the exact same tracking window.
From Bill's point of view, this is the kind of record no presidential campaign slogan can ever fully hide. Believe me, every primary debate stage will put all of it back on live national television in front of millions of voters. They think that they can just do whatever they want, get whatever bad results, the highest taxes in the country for the worst results, taking everybody for granted, taking their votes for granted.
That's why that he's not trying to earn anybody's vote. That's why he hasn't been campaigning [music] in this election. They take you for granted.
And I just want to ask every Californian, aren't you tired of that? It's time to try something different. The highest taxes in America combined with some of the weakest service results in America.
That is the quiet political trap waiting for Nuome in every single primary state he visits across the country. Independent public reporting confirmed California continues to charge one of the highest combined state tax rates in the entire country for working families. state education results on the most recent national assessment of educational progress placed California near the bottom of the country in fourth grade reading proficiency.
The honest version of the Newsome California record is very simple. California residents pay top dollar tax rates and often receive bottom tier results on the exact public services those tax dollars were supposed to fund. The Democrats can't try anything different because they can't admit they failed.
[music] They call themselves progressives, but they're running against progress. And if you ask them to name a new idea, they won't because they can't. Not in California, not in Washington.
Can you outline in more detail your agenda if Democrats do retake the Senate? We're going to do everything we [music] can to lower people's costs. Now, if Schumer knew how to lower costs, he would have [music] done it with Biden.
He's not even trying to earn your vote. He's just saying we have a 50/50 shot and if they lose it means one of two things. From Mar's view, the modern Democratic party keeps falling into the exact same political trap every single election cycle on live television.
Democratic leaders call themselves progressives, then refuse to admit when their own home state policies have clearly stopped working on the ground. Nuome [music] himself falls into the exact same pattern every single time a serious reporter asks him a hard question about his home state record. Nothing is ever his personal fault.
Nothing needs serious reform. Nothing from the last 7 years deserves a serious second look from anyone. Absolutely.
And they will because it will still be a referendum on Trump. So I think the Democrats will do very well in in the midterms. 2028 is a different story because by then this wing of the party, this new wing with all the energy and it's not just a few people anymore.
I read every day I read about a new person in some Colorado and Wisconsin, somebody who is saying some variation of not defund the police, abolish the police, no prisons, no police. Like what world do they think we could possibly live in under these conditions? The modern progressive wing of the Democratic party is not just a few loud voices online anymore.
Local political candidates in Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and multiple other states are now openly running on policy platforms calling for the complete elimination of modern police departments, prison systems, and border enforcement operations. Some critics agree that no serious national Democratic candidate can quietly ignore this exact wing of the party heading into 2028. The far-left wing holds the energy, the activist donor base, and the online megaphone.
And Nuome has already shown he does not know how to publicly push back on any of it. Honestly, this is exactly the kind of political fence sitting voters punish inside every single primary debate on live television. But then I read some of the comments that Andrew was quoting and it's like, oh god, you people just never learn.
I mean, just just the it's just crazy. It's just it's just so like pointlessly obviously anti-common sense and and people are just not going to go for that. And that that that is still a demon that the Democrats have not driven a stake into the heart of and they they need somebody who has the guts to come along.
I mean I see Rahm Emanuel is trying to do it but I don't see him actually getting the nomination. The political opening is sitting right in front of Gavin Newsome and he refuses to take it. The modern Democratic Party has still not publicly rejected the loudest anti-commonense ideas coming out of its own activist wing.
Rahm Emanuel is trying to take on the challenge publicly, but his own 2028 national primary polling currently sits in the low single digits across every major survey released this year. From Bill's point of view, Nuome could have filled this exact opening with real courage if he had actually been willing to break ranks publicly. He never did.
He never will. Every honest moderate Democratic donor across the country has already noticed the exact pattern on repeat. You have to the the problem is the primaries.
You have to get through this steeplechase of the primary where the most radical people in your party do the best and then somehow get back in the general election to renouncing everything you said. Remember Mitt Romney? I'm shaking the etch of sketch.
Well, easier said than done. And um you know the last guy who was able to thread that needle was Obama. But Obama was a real centrist.
You know, he was a true centrist. No, not everybody saw him that way, but he was. No modern Democratic candidate can completely escape the structural problem Bill named here.
Primary voters now reward the most radical activist voices during the early nominating window. Then the surviving candidate has to run back toward the political center during the general election later. Barack Obama was the last Democratic candidate to successfully walk that tightroppe in modern memory.
and he did it because he was already a genuine centrist underneath the public political brand. Make no mistake, Gavin Newsome lacks exactly the kind of centrist credibility Obama carried into his own presidential race. The California record works against him in every primary state outside the West Coast every single week on the trail.
Then there's Gavin, who says he'll consider a White House run. I'm looking forward to who presents themselves in 2028 and and who meets that moment and and and that's the question for the American people. They'll make their determination after the 2026 midterms.
You're going to give it serious thought. Yeah, I'd be lying otherwise. I I'd just be lying and I'm I can't do that.
I'd be lying and I can't do that. Well, since you can't lie, what tequila were you nursing while the Pacific Palicides burned? And what was it like banging your campaign manager's wife?
Of course, he's just waiting for us to forget that his state looks like an overturned portaotty, but with fake crime statistics and fake, why not have a fake governor? Greg Gutfeld just roasted Gavin Newsome on live television in a way most political hosts never actually do out loud. The governor made public television appearances during one of the worst wildfire disasters in modern California history.
National coverage of his response during the Pacific Palisades fire in early 2025 damaged his personal political brand almost overnight. Public reporting after the fire placed total estimated damages above $250 billion with over 180,000 California residents forced to evacuate at the peak of the disaster. From Bill's point of view, no political consultant anywhere in America can fully clean up the record of a governor whose own state burned on live television during his final full year in office before the next presidential race.
One single American political party quietly convinced itself the next presidential nominee should look like a prepared television version of a politician instead of a real voice with a real record working families could actually trust. Fresh national polling from Emerson College in May 2026 showed Newsome slipping behind Pete Budajedge in the full Democratic primary field. New Hampshire polling released in March 2026 showed Nuome down a full 9 points inside the state since the previous fall.
Independent prediction markets have cut his nomination odds from above 35% at the start of January 2026 to around 23% across the exact same tracking window. California continues to lose residents, lose business investment, lose education rankings, and lose political credibility outside its own state borders every single month. Nobody is officially saying it out loud yet, but the honest numbers are already telling the whole story in front of the entire country.
The next generation of Democratic voters is now the generation that has to decide whether an image first presidential model is actually worth copying for another full four years. Now, I want to hear from you. So tell me, is Bill Maher the only honest voice in American media willing to call out Gavin Newsome's 2028 collapse using real numbers instead of political fantasy?
Has the Newsome presidential dream officially ended before it even formally began? And is 2028 the year the Democratic Party finally picks a real voice with a real record, or the year it hands another national election to the opposition by choosing an image first candidate from a troubled home state? Drp your answer in the comments.
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