Is This Crypto Cycle A Repeat of 2017 or 2021?

Hello and welcome to episode of Casual Friday I'm here with the duck as always the show is brought to by woo links available in the description below Don we're coming up to the monthly close in 8 days and I'm wondering if this monthly close is bullish and we'll act as confirmation to start into this Market you know you've spoken so much about how important this time frame is so I'm wondering if you're willing to you know Risk 1% or maybe if you're being reasonable 0.5% of your account uh on this monthly breakout no I mean

the the the problem is that the close is coming up right true so you have to you have to trade that one first and that's coming up in in one month so might as well wait for that if you're already at it yeah you might as well wait but then do you really want to trade around the yearly open that seems pretty risky I'm really not convinced by arguments in favor of January there's just so much noise yearly close yearly open calendar shift uh Chinese New Year Wall Street bonuses that you know quarterly close as

well it's not just the yearly close the quarter of a century and so do you really want to trade the first monthly open uh and yearly open uh that sort of occurs it's I'm not super convinced ah [ __ ] you make a valid point yeah I might might have to wait till March or April but at that point are we too deep in the Cycle already I was [ __ ] posting about this the other day being like well you can't trade the yearly open uh and then February is Valentine's Day you can't can't

touch that and then March is like the q1 close and you can just you can just keep going through the entire calendar year um but yeah I mean looking at the monthly time frame in review do you think it did like a decent job overall because obviously we went back And forth on like its specific utility for timing and entry which I think was fair and accurate uh but most of the arguments for hey it you know still looks good because or you know at least it doesn't look bad because it's about 59k that ended

up working like the monthly time frame did its job in that regard although if you tried to use it for anything else it was quite torturous cuz you spent 6 months uh in a Range what's your uh performance review of This time frame for BTC yeah I I think it did kind of what it always does which is it's really good at support and then once it gets resistance um if you want to short that your invalidation is like basically infinite or like not because because I mean this candle still hasn't closed right and it

it opened at 70 70k right so opened 7 it's now at 100 You could argue like hey the monthly hasn't closed I'm still in my short position or whatever um Obviously there was never really a good reason to get into a short on the monthly but just generally right or like we memed about like hey it's now breaking out uh just eight days and then you can start deploying if you wait for the breakout the confirmed breakout Candle on the monthly usually I mean you miss a lot of the move um but around the supports

it's always really good and and that's kind of what happened again um it held the support it Consolidated around The support and then just started running got into resistance and smashed it in one goal um as it usually does honestly like that's how that's how the monly usually goes yeah I think that's fair um what's the future utility of the monthly time frame uh in the coming months given this type of structure so useless useless yeah okay why like because because when you think about it like I mean it depends right it obviously depends so

if You if you think this is all a trap and we're going back below 70k then it's very useful um but if you think like Hey we're breaking out here for real and the fact why I'm saying it's useless is because then you'd kind of don't expect it to come back right um so you'd assume this breakout is real and there's no structure here right alltime High um breakout on the monthly like you there's nothing really you can do with the monthly anymore just look at just look At the the 13k breakout in in 2020

in November 2020 like what would you have used the monthly for the next six months afterwards and then even during the consolidation that we got at the top uh that wasn't really useful until like six seven months in right so basically the moment we got back to back to the high that's where you could have done something with the monthly because that's the first time you had a little bit of structure and then when we got Back to the range low same deal that was the first time you could have done something with it and

you can see that that is where kind of the bounce came from the little bounce before we completely went to zero um so I traed my tits off on both of those dude that was so much fun yeah I I actually had quite a bit of fun on on those as well could have gone so wrong though I know yeah like I I remember buying like 30 something K uh and then it bounced to 40 And I mean if I held that I would have been I would have been destitute for the rest of I'm

pretty sure we both bought that nuke and then you closed it for once a bit later than I did I think like what is it I had like a slightly better entry and closed earlier your your entry was like slightly higher but closed later but it's like a peak technical Roundup trade you know [ __ ] don't buy any altcoins on the 2021 run up in any size or hold them pry meaningful period Of time but you know BTC nukes and you get a [ __ ] day trade out of it you're like oh this

is the best Market ever y yeah I mean the cool thing is when you're trading Bitcoin is that that it's usually with more with more size any old coin so like that's what people kind of tend to forget this cycle they don't though like people are really like people are still telling me that I should shut up about the market because I sold X at X like X price great on Bitcoin right and I'm like I mean there's a lot of all coins that went like 2x 5x 10x it doesn't really matter like the the

Bitcoin trading like that's the that's where I think like I excel the most but like when you have market conditions like you have right now where alt coins like go up 10 20 30% in a day um it's basically just like the the Bitcoin trading at the beginning of the cycle is just really like a small part of of the entire thing Right so like if you missed half of the runup even if you miss the entire runup like we talked about in Prior show shows right like even if you missed the entire runup you

didn't buy 16k you didn't buy 30 you didn't buy 60 um but you're getting like end of cycle good allcoin trades in um there's a good chance that you still outperform other people in the market um and you didn't have to deal with just like paying the entire way through I think generally there's Probably a subset of people in in crypto that just come in whenever Bitcoin breaks an alltime high and just look for oin play for like a month or two or three and then they leave again I think like I legit think that's

one of the most chill painfree ways to trade this Market it's just we're all gambling addict so we have to we have to just completely go and trade all the time um but yeah it's kind of how we how we are now In in in in the part of the cycle where nothing really matters I mean that is yeah very relatable um not to drone on too long about the monthly time frame but it also seems like once stuff actually breaks out and gets going as you mentioned it's just not going to be very useful

um you know there were basically no monthly consolidations post alltime High breakout which kind of went up the other time frames are more appropriate than that um I think if we Start carving out a monthly range of some sort but it would have to be really [ __ ] long like six months you know four to six months plus then the monthly time frame can become useful uh and then what do you think of you know some sort of support cluster at 70 to 60k you know like we go to [ __ ] 120 and

then it or 130 or some absurd number and then you know it starts turbo nuking would you see that as a valid monthly support or is it like hey what the [ __ ] are we Doing back here I'm not even I'm out before it gets even close uh I mean I did draw that before Trump got elected right I was like um if Trump gets elected we're going from where we were which was like 60k 70k um all the way to 100 and then back down to 60 70k um okay or to that support

cluster now that we are up like all the way here I'm not entirely sure that's going to happen um the Market's been quite strong generally um so I'm I'm not Entirely sure we're just gonna gonna get the nuk immediately but yeah it's it's a support I wouldn't necessarily hate on it it's a little bit it would be quite scary because it's a major breakout and it's a monthly breakout and if you immediately come back like that's that's a little bit of a shift in Attitude usually when Bitcoin breaks out of the monthly time frame it

just goes and doesn't look back doesn't really retest um but it's the nearest and only support We have so like if it if it basically if it did that I think I would buy it I probably sell the bounce uh and then cope forever when it goes to Infinity but um I would sell the bonds because that's weakness right like if it comes back it's weakness um but I would still want to buy that um that support for all time sake one of those trades yeah um the other time frames I mean even the weekly

I feel like at the Moment is no more useful than the monthly uh apart from just being quicker there's it's just the same picture isn't it like consolidation breakout no structure no consolidation the only consolidation is the previous range itself that that looks to me like a mirror image of the monthly at least in its current form in terms of utility do you agree yes okay I I generally like you have to zoom very very we can go through this we have to zoom in very Very far let's do it so the weekly is equals

the monthly so everything we said in the previous section applies uh the daily I think is starts to become the first like you know reasonably tenable time frame uh where you don't have to look at 70k to get some sort of structure and I think we spoke about this in last week's show I've you know tried to convey this idea by Twitter Etc in the past that in these types of market conditions Consolidation consolidations in BTC at the very least are a form of pullback right um and that that sort of operates for a few

reasons the first is that you just generally don't want to see the market break out and then fully retrace to the level that it broke out from you know as baby Pips friendly as that is in terms of what it means to the market you know the fact that it's willing to erase an entire leg uh so quickly after breaking out is like generally bad news So that's why you sort of have to shy away from that if you're looking for Trend continuation entries cuz if you're getting full retest entries then that threatens the trend

itself it's it's you know the sort of self-defeating uh Paradox that if you want the pullback for Trend continuation if and that pullback means that Trend continuation itself is less likely you know or something of that nature uh so once that's out the second reason why Consolidations kind of act as a form of pullback is because even when BTC consolidates and you know there are a couple red days in there and it sneezes a few per the altcoins get absolutely [ __ ] massacred on those days um like double digit red days as we during

this most recent consolidation so the consolidation in BTC while it doesn't look like it's doing any damage or sort of resetting any positioning uh it's certainly is on the altcoin front that That's where you get your rinses and flushes so consolidation serve that kind of you know pullback in practice purpose um do you agree with that do you think you know how do you view BTC cons consolidations uh when you get runs up like this is it kind of like a necessary evil that you don't want the retest so you have to settle for the

next best thing yeah it is I mean I I 100% agree with what you said basically like consolidation is usually the best thing You get um and then the funny thing is like once it starts correcting and this basically when you look at the daily time frame you're like it's where we have support at 90 whatever okay if it pulls back there I think it's going to be like a bounce so basically like 90 like if you pull back to the first consolidation that is support right so you basically you go up you put in

the consolidation which is your pullback right and it goes up further and it puts In a consolidation and the first time it goes back to one of those I think is usually like where you get a bounce and you get a lower high and you can get a proper nuke and then the market resets right um so like a lot of people are waiting for an entry at kind of at their supports and I think basically what they're going to get is they're going to get their entry like if it pulls back but they're not

going to be very happy with it in the long run so like during These strong strong moves up the best pullback you can get like you said is is just a consolidation and um this is why it's like you might look at this and be like hey this is so easy to trade because it just goes up only but finding an entry is really hard right so uh that's why people like a lot of people are struggling I think it's why a lot of people are not trading Bitcoin because they don't really see a good

setup um and then they trade the old coins and I Must say like 90% of the old coins just have been underperforming Bitcoin massively right in the last three months to basically years and um they're in pain now because Bitcoin went up infinite and their altcoin is still exactly where it was before Bitcoin went infinite um which is always like something that almost always happens right when Bitcoin goes on these big runs that 90% of the altcoin sector is just left behind I mean yeah it's uh the current market positioning is like that sort of

and and this has been the case the entire cycle right the degree of dispersion uh it feels like there are just different universes uh some sort of crypto Multiverse Theory where if you're holding sort of VC coins from 2021 you're kind of like flat and break even for the year and [ __ ] all has happened whereas if you're holding BTC you're having a good time eth relative to BTC You you probably just can't believe the gap between 3.4k eth and almost 100K BTC uh if you're in Boomer coins you're like I knew I was

right all along thank you 2017 you know it's like if you're in memes it just kind of changes every week so you can't afford I mean the meme rotation speeds are getting insane by the way I mean they have been for a while but I feel like it puts like the sort of the Morad list as an example in a very difficult position because a lot Of normies are joining and they're sort of creating their own sub metas that Crypt natives are trying to catch on to and Chase like by Tik Tok and stuff and

old memes are kind of becoming oied very quickly um so that that part is tricky but Ju Just to at least try to stay on topic when it comes to the Daily time frame since we're bouncing through all these time frames where is that earliest consolidation is it is it that 91 mini red candle cluster is it the whole thing From like 87 to I mean the lowest close and the highest close kind of 87 to 91 uh how do you I mean do you have anything marked on your chart for you you know for

this area basically yeah I do I I have the whole thing just because I cannot decide and I know right like it's a it's a little bit shitty um to draw something good here because um if you draw the just the the two red daily candles uh it just kind of like gets in the way of the prior price action but Then if you take the whole thing it's a little bit big but doesn't really matter at the end of the day right like I think if it pulls back in any like at 290k um

in any shape or form um you're going to get like some strength there just got pick like pick um a good like time to get in um but like I said I I don't think that would be necessarily good um for the short-term price action I think like if you get to 89k you could get to 94 after maybe 95 and then I think You' Probably go back down again um so like what you want to see is basically this thing just continuing to go and then uh like if you pull back at 120 or

whatever uh maybe it goes back to like flash crashes to 90 and then I would say something different then I'd be like hey uh like this is a really good area in comparison to whatever the [ __ ] we else like whatever else we have on the chart um and then maybe it doesn't make just make a a lower high But actually really goes so you want to push away even further from the level become better in a kind of weird way otherwise I think the level is just going to be like a a roadblock

before we go somewhere in the low 80s okay um and then probably still do kind of okay but uh yeah I it needs to push a little bit higher and I think just generally um talking about price MH um there's like there's very like it'd be very very weird to stop before we hit 100K right Like I think we're probably gonna break it um we're probably going to go like people are expecting it to break and then immediately go down again I think this probably going to be like a little bit of a push up

be above it um just a little um but and then I think it's actually going to dip back down again um so like 1001 maybe 1002 and then I think it's probably going to pull back for the first time um since 70k that's kind of what I'm thinking but This just me guessing because there's no real ta that you can do on this no whatever real ta you can do I think we've mostly done it right cuz like looking at the 4 Hour as well that basically gives you that same daily range I mean it

sort of cuts through it but realistically if you're taking uh you know candle body range low to Candle body Range High you get a very similar like high 80s low 90s that's that's kind of the last place where there's any sort Of structure anything that looks remotely horizontal not diagonal uh and that's about as good good as it's going to get um cuz I mean even at on the hourly so you know from that dip yesterday this entire thing is like diagonal right um and in enal if you're looking for at least ta oriented supports

from a price action perspective uh you want to see uh support and resistance be built in horizontal you know in a horizontal fashion for those Kind of previous volume clusters to take that shape versus diagonally when that you know there's not a single price or area where where there were a lot of orders and it's just kind of being walked up the the horizontal stuff from a I guess Market structure perspective if you're trading pure price action tends to be better and if you're still looking at this thinking well that that's still too far away

um and I and I really really want a piece of this then I think at that point you can't really afford the luxury of like having good levels um you need to start dancing around with stuff like uh low time frame momentum indicators and you know daily open drives and really fast moving moving averages and like other stuff but you have to basically play play really close to the market um this this is a tradeoff that we've spoken about many times on this show where if if you really want to trade now then you you

Must be kind of willing to pay a price for it right and the price for it will be less clear levels less confirmation and not trading the obvious stuff but you know you can't have it both ways you can't want to enter right now and sort of convey that sense of urgency but also then have the luxury of like trading the best level ever um so I I don't know if if you agree or if there's anything else on those lower time frames that stands out but I think if you're being like Almost good faith

ta about it 90k is the last area where there's like actually some stuff uh and if you really want to grab a piece of it you'll just have to buy realistically and any TA that you're using to justify um 98 99 100 plus won't really be ta oriented it'll just be uh you know you'll need other arguments which is like your momentum continuation or us session or running through the round number that type of stuff but from a purely you know Bread andb Butter ta Perspective like 90k is I think the nearest level to price

where if you were to just trade this chart with the price away from it and you just had like the candles uh that that's kind of the nearest area that makes sense what do you think yeah I agree and I mean with what I said about like the the 100K like breakout whatever I still remember I don't know if you if you do but I'm pretty sure you do like back in 2017 uh when we broke 10K for the first Time like the price action basically um where we basically we struggled that directly like under

10k for a couple days and then we broke through 10K immediately went to 11 and then basically just vanished um for like very very short amount of time and um like went back to 9: basically the next day and uh then never looked back right or like obviously we did look back but didn't look back for that R all the way to to 20K right so that's kind of like How I look at it um I could see it break a 100 um there could be a pullback before but I think it's going to break

100 just because we got so close uh and then it's going to go like towards like 1002 100 three maybe like if you're really really aggressive 110 uh and then I think it's going to pull back and then depending on how strong the market is either will repeat 2017 um or we just uh we just done uh one or the other I'm not entirely sure Which one's going to play out but it does remind me a little bit of that time back at 10K where the market just went uh a little crazy around the own

number and I think 100K is even more uh intense of a number than 10K so I'm expecting a little bit of hiccups uh even if we break it like I've seen a bunch of people say like hey if we're gonna break it going to go up to 150k immediately I'm not entirely sure that's going to happen I think basically a lot people Are waiting for this um and uh yeah once it does happen you're going to see see funny things in in the market but I don't think it's going to be as funny as 150k

yeah um I think that's pretty pretty reasonable uh any other time frames for BTC or areas to do business or technical indicators do you think are useful or is it just 100K uh waiting room yeah I it's 100K waiting room waiting room and I think sorry go on There there's really nothing right like you can you can draw lines on the on the hourly um the 4 Hour has a little bit of lines like I mean I I drew that ascending I I drew that ascending triangle that broke to the upside yes um and I

mean you could now like box out the 4our um that we had like the 4 Hour red candle that we had um but this so aggressive right like that's like if you're trading off of these that's so so aggressive yes um I mean it's worked so Far but don't expect that to keep working um for too much longer just because um the move has been like big enough where you're going to get run over if you if you stick with the 4 Hour for too long uh but also there's no real other time frames where

you can draw lines so it's basically like right now it's all having a pulse on the momentum having kind of like a read on Center and honestly the biggest one of them all uh knowing what the [ __ ] saor is doing Right because he's been pushing this um at least in my opinion he's been pushing this up this far um there's like like a lot of the buying is him and um a lot of the buying that isn't him is people front run buying uh like front running him basically and then being like I

I'm going to hold um but I think a lot of the buying is basically saor related and if uh if that stops or slows down um the Market's going to stop and slow down so it's kind of funny we we're Reliant on it uh in a way and the a lot of the people that have been trading crypto that have been completely shutting their brain off um and just been longing and just taking any bad setup have been bailed out by saor I've seen a lot of setups where there was a bunch of people in

distress basically and usually if there was not an indiscriminate buyer like sailor this would have been punished right but given that there's sailor sitting in the S Sitting in the order books just scooping everything up um they've not been and uh at some point they will be it's just like the question is like how far does the Sailor buy and go and I I it's not my expertise I cannot answer that so like I think the Market's got more complicated with him involved just because you have to now figure out how much money he can

put into the market and how much like just outside Capital he can pull in um to buy more crypto With it's hard to say yeah at least in the short to medium term it's some combination of like the Trump event trade I feel like morphed into uh sort of saor continuation if that makes sense yeah uh so like Trump trade all you know consolidation Breakout out into alltime high that's kind of its own basket and there's still forces in play there from you know the regulatory regime and all these headlines and so on and so

forth uh from The US but then there's also as you mentioned sailor just indiscriminately uh completely price and sensitive buying and then as usual you have just like momentum Traders and news Traders uh piling in on top of Sailor or trying to front run him depending on how good your entry is right uh so with sailor stuff always feels like double dipping which is quite funny cuz it's sailor himself having Market impact by his execution uh but then the same event if you will we Get an extra boost of buying from people trading those headlines

and trying to front run him as you mentioned all that type of stuff right um so so I feel like it kind of we conveniently fell from one into the other which was really nice for price like from the Trump event trade into like the micro strategy Mania essentially uh and and all the sort of following you know writing the coat Tales from other traders that comes with it um but but this kind of stuff is like Very reflexive right um when you have like an indiscriminate price and sensitive buyer who's being tailed uh once

that entity stops and or people Pile in late expecting followup that doesn't come like in the previous two three instances uh those aren't exactly iron-handed positions uh you know those Traders tend to be a bit uh tend to be be a bit on the jumpy side so that's that's sort of something to look out for and I think in general when you're Dealing with like such an absence of at least straightforward technical levels uh you just have to look in other places that aren't the chart if you really care right uh so you can look

at um for example how coin B coinbase is trading relative to uh derivatives and you know Futures perps whatever that has been useful uh you can look at which specific sessions have been buying and whether their behavior changes in the short term or even day-to-day that has been useful Uh looking at spreads blowing out in like coinbase uh historically has also been uh very useful there are just like other nontechnical context clues that are still available but you need to work slightly harder for uh rather than the chart itself especially if you want to like

play close to the market uh away from really straightfor technical levels yeah well said it's actually it's been funny because every time like even like just funding like every time funding's Picked up a bunch um on the alt coins for example like the the Market's been [ __ ] and then funding's like very very low and then the market just trades nicely um which is I mean funding is not incredibly High just generally considering we are like at 100K I would have expected it to be higher but like literally just that it's I've noticed just

trading this thing where it's been like like whenever funding's just like Been low and it has been low during this rally which is kind of insane even on on good alt coins right like for example salana funding's been like very low the last last couple the last couple days um it's picking up now again and then like the price action just been good like stuff's been going up and then the moment it kind of like starts heating up um price action just turns to shits um which you wouldn't necessarily see in the chart right it's

just um something That you see when you when you look at a little bit more data than just the chart yeah and also just some of the notional like the AR trade is massive at this point cuz there's always you know the sort of basis on quarterly Futures itself which is 20% still seems like a pretty sensitive spot on average um but even 16% roughly where most of the quarterly are at annualized if you look at like the CME open interest essentially like that ARB trade is Actually [ __ ] massive at this point uh

like it's it's billions like it's you know zillions of dollars essentially and I think the CME it says up to 14% now and obviously the Futures volume on CME is like enormous at the moment the highest it's been and I just think of and CME open interest there we go that's what I was looking for uh it's up to like 21 billion now like the CME open interest chart looks better than the BTC breakout Itself uh like from I mean if we look at this slightly closer um you know if the breakout was on the

6th of November um um on the 7th of November the CME open interest was 14 billion and in like a week it went up to 20 you know and this is like the CME so that's that's for futures and the options open interest is the same just kind of up to five billion now compared to breakout day when it was like three you know um so I I don't think a bunch of this is you know a lot Of you've seen a lot of analysis on Twitter which like oh you know C open interest so

high you know the fund managers are long Etc like I'm sure some of that is true and some of that open interest and volume is directional sure but the really juicy trade there is like the quote unquote risk-free ARB right you buy Spot sell the future and collect uh the basis or the spread between those two and if that [ __ ] is at like 15 20% that's just like one of the best trades Going around uh and the most attractive thing is it's not very it's not limited by your Capital per se uh which

is to say that you can put on a lot of like like you know your CME guys aren't going to be like in the trenches in an Institutional capacity looking at these Mar market caps and liquidity and so on but you can put on like near infinite size into arbing the BTC basis and that's what makarious when it's like 15 20% Etc like there's just like a bunch Of normies like us and I mean a few like a few institutional buyers but not much right like still in comparison to what you get on other things

um and we get we get like we manag to make that trade a reality every [ __ ] cycle it's hilarious and this time it's the biggest it's ever been right so yeah love that crazy space yeah thank you yeah on like on the funding side I agree it hasn't been like particularly crazy I think there are other sort of Structural forces at play here like you know Athena for ethereum and for BTC it's you know the AR trade is in general so attractive and it's also like the market participants are pretty experienced now you

know like the if you talked about the AR the BTC Futures AR trade whatever in 2017 2018 you were some sort of [ __ ] Savant genius right whereas now it's like Tom Dick and Harry know how to buy Spot sell the future and you know uh AR the basis basically and Collect that spread uh but still getting it up to those types of levels you know 16 20% Etc uh that that's almost impressive that it can still get up there despite how institutionalized the that trade has become you know uh so that's that's always

very interesting but I do think it puts like an upside cap on what that basis can get to cuz at a certain point you can just Fork all of your money into that trade you know and that'll naturally push it down slightly Especially with again it's not size constrained it's very easy to set up so on and so forth I think the reason we used to see like way way higher quarterly Futures uh premiums was because there were just like fewer entities taking that trade uh and they they basically like ran out of capital for

it uh and so those things could trade way out of whack I just don't think we're going to see the you know 60 80 100% whatever crazy stuff at least on The BTC quarterly future side because that that you know that trade is just too big and too easy at this point so I think the data needs to be interpreted slightly differently you know like I don't think looking at and to the like to a similar extent I think the same applies to funding um obviously funding is sort of impacted a lot more by just

retail punters on Leverage and it's not as straightforward to take with you know the funding periods every eight hours so On and so forth being recalculated versus just like a fixed price future that's or sort of a calendar future that's easier to hedge but I think there's a similar mechanism there that I don't expect like BTC funding to go up to some of the Mania levels we saw in 21 and even on the bitm side early on because I I I just think that trade is too widespread at this point to let it get that

crazy you know no one's going to leave that much money on the table so Using previous kind of funding rate premiums whatever Peaks as an indicator which again I've seen like oh in 20 whatever year um we only topped when funding was went this high and Futures went that high Etc I don't think it's a good Benchmark for current market conditions because I think the participants in the trade itself have have changed you think that makes any sense yeah I mean basically we have a bunch of smart people in the market now That are not

going to let it get that bad yes um yeah we just but we I think we have enough [ __ ] people that we could overpower them actually yeah um but yeah I do agree with you that it's probably not going to get as crazy as it as it has um still great [ __ ] trade you know yeah it's it's insane it's not sexy but like it's a good trade like funding rate AR in these market conditions like that that [ __ ] is sexy um just from a risk Adjusted returns point of view

and it also creates like if the trade gets very busy which I I think in general it is looking at you know especially on the CM open infra side whatever uh you can actually get pretty cool signals from it we haven't had this for like a while but if there's like a big blow up on the OBS side on a nuke and they all start unwinding and those Futures end up getting uh close to parity or even get backdated that's like the best [ __ ] Leverage flush signal on the planet I think like when

that basis gets completely crushed from 15 20% even higher whatever and then there's a nuke and all those positions get Unwound and it ends up trading you know it goes from Kango to backward that that [ __ ] is like you know you want a leverage flush like that's about as Extreme as it gets yeah well said should we look at all coins we should look at altcoins um why is BTC going down by the Way I'm not like I'm looking at the 1 hour and and the the this kind of candle color is very

unfamiliar to you please fix ohoh I'm just refreshing trading view because it's clearly a bug uh ether's the best altcoin have you seen gainy pain tweet about it it's really funny oh yeah yeah he's been here's the reason why I'm not so sure about my positioning you bought some right yeah I bought some yesterday yeah um so the bottom of that monster candle Naturally uh yeah no no actually like the monster candle came in and uh I was I mean I went out to grocery shop because we didn't have groceries um like I saw it

go up and I was like ah this is probably like this this seems like it's going to stick but uh I have other things to do um and then it just just ran up I was like a maybe maybe I missed that trade whatever and then the two hours afterwards it just completely nuked and then I got some oh okay so Like 3 2ish uh I mean 32 is very generous now it's like 3250 3260 um yeah it's still the wick you still got it yeah yeah yeah I got it I got yeah in between

I mean I was very very close like some buys at 4 40 some buys at 50 basically okay so do you want to do the bigger picture run down here I mean weekly like yeah the monthly there's actually like it's funny because It's a different situation as Bitcoin is in because you can still use all of those High time frames um but yeah basically the weekly time frame on eusd yes uh is just really strong um it is because Bitcoin just went up infinite right but we'll just ignore that if you just look at it

from a perspective of okay this is eusd how is it doing it's a really strong chart right um it's been kind of like you you can draw a trend line from two 2022 on the weekly uh all the way up um to where we were like just a couple of weeks ago um it's pretty clean trend line I butched it last time between log and linear but yes broadly sleeping yeah yeah it is I think I I'm on on log chart yeah I am um so there's a trend line there and we're kind of CA

by 4K and we're kind of like just bouncing back and forth and just generally like that is like a good chart the fact that we reclaimed 2.9k Too um which was the range breakout uh the range breakdown that we had um like all of that is really good and all of that is very familiar because we've done these kind of things when Bitcoin was still trading below 60k right like that the the the the 3K reclaim or like the 2.9k reclaim is like the Bitcoin 35k reclaim uh of sorts a little bit weaker of a

signal but still like a significant signal I think um the the only negative or like the only downside because if you Hear me say that you might be like hey dude like Bitcoin went from 30 to 60k like I have to buy e right um and yes you should buy my bags um no but like the downside to it is that um yes Eve is putting in a similar structure as Bitcoin has but Bitcoin went to Infinity right and it's kind of dragging Eve up which is itself like a a sign of weakness right like

Eve's been weak and the only reason why the chart like the eusd chart is good is because Bitcoin's just gone up so much um so you have like this weird situation where chart really good um but there's weakness on on the ebtc front generally and just like e beenin dragging um H so you kind of have to navigate that a little bit um I think E's good uh unless it loses 2.9k I think that's the invalidation 2.9k below there starts looking really shitty um as long as it's above there looks really good and I don't

really see A good reason to be bearish on it necessarily um just based on the chart only in a relative sense right yes exactly like the relative sense I see a lot of reasons to beish this thing it's just only based on the eus D chart there's no real good reason to be bearish well done if you remember our weekly mid-range which I should delete from my chart because it's causing me a lot of Anguish but it's exactly at 3.4 y so you know if you want like a Short-term road map I guess it's actually

pretty much the same as when we spoke previously uh 3.8k High 2 9k reclaim SL breakout in validation 3.4 for Don's blood pressure yeah that's actually a really [ __ ] good level yeah reminds me of that Meme looking at it on the 4 Hour you know like babe stop shorting double top yep I mean it's good times good shot uh the problem is that this could take a while but um I generally think just from Like a very basic just turning off my brain Bitcoin went to alltime high I think each's gonna go do

it too um and this is like legit like some of the dumbest form of thinking that I can I applied that reasoning to my 2017 altcoins and I didn't feel so good I guess say 2021 altcoin some of the 2017 ones are actually doing pretty well um yeah that this is like some of the dumbest reasoning you can have sure but I think e has enough sophistication That could actually make the argument and I think generally the first like the bigger the gap between Bitcoin and E gets right like let's say Bitcoin goes to 300K

and E is still trading at 3K I at that at that point it becomes a brain dead trade right where you're just like I mean this is just is too cheap at this point and I think we are kind of at that point now where E's just too cheap um to kind of ignore but also like price action has been so [ __ ] that you're kind of trading against the massive Trend so yeah you got to be got to be um careful around it but I I think it's it's a decent spot is there

anything on ebtc that suggests decent spot uh yes uh if you go on ebtc monthly uh there's one level that I kept talking about and that was um the yeah uh 0.035 like that the high of the prior Consolidation before like I I don't know if you have the exact level but basically 2019 yeah 20 yeah exactly in January 2019 um that's kind of the the support that I would like to hold that's something that I've had on the chart for months um we went all the way there last month you actually closed exactly at

the level if this current price action is to wash out and then we close back above it it starts looking quite good even on the Ebtc plan right now obviously doesn't look so good um but if it does manage to turn that around then starts looking quite good yeah so we have like a week left basically yeah I mean that's nice at least right you have like a technical uh extreme inflection point and a sort of time based inv validation on top of that so yeah it's certainly better than just like trying to continually buy

this thing on the way down in the middle of nowhere or when it's breaking down and Retesting as it has been almost in slow motion like a car crash on the E BTC monthly chart but Don what's clearly going on is this is back inside the Range close below 35 and then the range low is at 017 uh study that uh oh U no I mean it makes sense I get it um what the more important question though is on the daily time frame what does your classical charting PhD tell you about this Twin Towers

pattern that We have going on at the moment I mean generally like these kind of like these kind of structures usually just chill a little bit and then break out again um that's kind of how I look at it but um with Bitcoin so close to 100K um maybe it it scus it right like maybe Bitcoin pulls back to to 95 or 94 and then e would start looking real [ __ ] real fast like that's the that's the kind of risk that you're taking right now right like Bitcoin just needs to pull back like

5% Everyone's really scared that the Bitcoin top is already close to being in and something that you that you most notice on the altcoins because basically or at least like the Bitcoin holders are chill about Bitcoin right like they're like a the Bitcoin top is not in uh Moon everything right but the altcoin holders they're sitting here looking at Bitcoin seeing it go up infinitely and they're like oh Bitcoin has to stop at some point um so they're kind of like afraid That the cycle is over soon so every time Bitcoin shows a little bit

of weakness they kind of fought themselves out of their oldin positions um because they've been in so much pain that they're kind just kind of like completely um Paralyzed by fear in a way like the moment Bitcoin pulls back like like the or hold is just completely disintegrate um because you get like red candles and then you've already had weakness and you get red candles that's Terrible you know um and I think that's kind of like that's kind of where you see a lot of this like fear come in and then you have a bunch

of all coin people that are like oh yeah but um Bitcoin always does this like it runs and all coins suffer and then the moment Bitcoin stops all coins go up um and I actually had like a bunch of arguments with people because they were like constantly being like yeah um why are you like shitalking my like random Altcoin like this is how the market always plays out and I said like hey if this the mark like if this is how the market always plays out and you're stuck in [ __ ] whatever link and

uh link is up like whatever like a 2X from the bottom in USD terms while Bitcoin is up like a 100x um why did you not just buy Bitcoin you know like if you know it that well it's like up in USD just 7 years later yeah like if you know so well how All of this works right and I have a lot of people explaining me how the market Works in my comments I'm like if you know if you know so well how this works why the [ __ ] are you stuck in like

B whatever the [ __ ] 2 2010 or coins um waiting for them to revive once Bitcoin stops rallying like I'm sorry I don't get the point but um yeah that's kind of like where we are right now basically um a bunch of allcoin people are afraid Bitcoin is going to top soon they're Very skidish so the moment Bitcoin pulls back you're going to see a lot of like allcoin page um and that's kind of the danger and the I think just generally if you're looking for altcoin positioning and we're going to talk about some

altcoins um those are the times that you actually want to be looking at buying some uh if you just buy into strength um you tend to get [ __ ] right now like how the Market's been trading unless you're trading xrp xrp has been the only One where like 100% of the time of me trading it in the last seven days and I've traded it back and forth a bunch every time I bought into strength I've made money every time I've bought into weakness I've made money um and then I've traded a bunch of other

things I've traded Dogecoin I've traded like e I've traded like Solana all of those things every time I've bought into strength and any of the other ones uh I just bought the top and then it went down and then Maybe I got bailed out or maybe I had to take a loss and try lower again um but it's kind of been funny like the oak front like has been brutal um in the way that you've just had to buy these wipes when or holders get freaked instead of buying strength that you see um yeah it's

true and I think there's like clear evidence for your argument which is that they're skittish because even absent like a clear BTC pullback just like a day of consolidation is enough for Double digit red days and olds you know that the sort of finger hovering over the [ __ ] red button the entire day and the second like the 5 minute candle on BDC turns red it's like okay it's over just nuked all my old coins um but that's good for trading right when you have like such an overleveraged very price sensitive super skittish um

number of Traders all kind of position the same way that they're not going to be executing those trades at good spots at Good prices right Their Fear sort of makes their execution terrible and somewhat price insensitive and context insensitive as well uh so you know if you can get entries from their skittishness that that's great but as always we keep coming back for this since 2017 at least to a large extent you still have to get BTC right you know cuz if there's like if BTC pulls back like a tiny bit all correct 10% and

you're like oh there we go here we are You know you buy those altcoins but actually you're wrong about BTC and it's not just a consolidation but it's a a larger correction then you know you'll be in the same boat as those altcoin guys essentially because you buy the 10% day uh down day and then there's just another one the following day type of thing so they Al [ __ ] always cirles back especially in this market I think to to getting BTC right um it's just even more complicated than before cuz Not only do

you have to get BTC right you have to get your altcoin selection right as well um because of just the amount of coins and the amount of dispersion and the uh insane spread in altcoin sort of returns uh you need to be sort of doubly Smart in terms of timing BTC uh but also selecting which which coins to trade whereas in the past as you remember you know it just it was literally a binary right it's like BTC or old coins and that's it like they'd All go up and sure there was like relative strength

or weakness within them but they they would all go through a bull market you're not holding uh coins that just like haven't done anything while BTC as an all-time high it's just very strange to think about but that's kind of the market we're in the moment you get timing right and the selection right as well yeah and I think even if you're in team team old season right because I think the lot of people This kind of the the chat End Town like hey once Bitcoin calms down and we're going to get old season um

I think the way like if you're going to get that right because a lot of people like 100% certain that's what we're going to get so like the entry that you want to get um for the people that are 100% certain that that they're going to get an all season the moment Bitcoin coms down right um the altcoin oh like the the dep that you want to get Is is much different than I think a lot of people expect basically like let's say Bitcoin tops at 100 110k and then pulls back I still think that

pullback is going to lead to mass destruction on the old coins even if that is like the the the of old season and I I generally think people overestimate the the odds of like an old season like where everything goes up I think there's like a very small chance that there's going to be a time where like in 2017 or in 2021 where like just the entire Market catapults up like no matter what do you bought ex many coin there's too many coins right so I think like just that those odds like if you don't

have like anything decent that people are going to buy um there's a chance that that whole move um would just walk by you right you just miss it um but just generally like how you would even get there is much more brutal than than people think which would be basically Bitcoin tops Bitcoin Pulls back all coins put in like minus 10 to minus 40% um down there uh or like just generally a pullback of like minus 40% I would surprised about and then you get your like then the the coin start massively outperforming Bitcoin that

is how it's always worked right like people keep telling me like yeah um Bitcoin just needs to chill and the allcoins will go up this is not how it's historically been historically how it's been is Bitcoin tops Bitcoin pulls back The all coins go to complete and other [ __ ] basically and then that that like that nuke gets bought aggressively and then you start teleporting there has to be a sacrifice yeah and I mean the the sacrifice is the people um as sad as it sounds right and I don't want to FUD anyone out

of their positions because like I said I think there's a good chance that we're actually gonna get like allcoin movements that are positive Right otherwise I wouldn't be trading like xrp and Dogecoin and whatever the [ __ ] because I I actually believe there's a lot that that could be a lot of value gained there um but the sacrifice that you're going to get are the people like are exactly the people that are like hey just chill once Bitcoin chills I'm going to get my old season because those are the people that have been sitting

in like stuff like link they've been sitting and stuff like That's barely gone up basically but they they can kind of like be like oh yeah um I'm going to get my old season at the end of it anyway right like I'm fine but they're in massive pain because bitcoin's up so much right and then the moment they see Bitcoin put in like a 20% pullback or something from the high and their allcoin dumps even more right uh maybe even goes back to where it was at the beginning of the cycle if you hold a

particularly shitty old coin um There's very very high chance that you're going to puke those right and so usually like the the people that are very arrogant right now and that that that that are like hey I mean you just get everything wrong um we're gonna get an old season and I'm Gonna Be Rich those are the people that are usually um getting sacrificed during during market conditions like that and um then they are right at the end of the day often times where the market Actually does go like they all does go up um

but they are not in the trade anymore so you got to be careful on that front like if you hold something particularly week um but you still have like some faith in it right I know that there's a lot of people that love link for example and it's the only reason stop picking on link bro we just talked about how there are so many alt coins you mentioned the same one like three times yeah I mean it'd be odd if I was Jumping through the list like I I'm being consistent mentioning one but there's infinite

like link I don't think link is particularly shitty by the way um but like let's say you like link for the fundamentals right um just know that like the moment Bitcoin tops there's a good chance that this pulls back a bunch and puts you into immense pain and then um if if you're looking at like capturing the old season uh and you're sure that you're going to get that um Just know that like you're going to have to maybe not guaranteed obviously but maybe go through more pain than you actually accounted for um before you

get your your salvation um you don't want to be right and not make money that that is that is not fun there's also like a second group that gets sacrificed or is at risk of getting sacrificed obviously the first one is those who can't stomach the pre alt season volatility uh the second group is those Who see that 10 20% whatever sort of impulse leg on BTC before it puts in the pullback they use that as a means of leveraging up or adding to their altcoin position and then when the pull back happens they get

[ __ ] wiped out like immediately basically and then the market after that nuke sort of goes without them it's more or less the same path of BTC pullback means you eat [ __ ] and miss out on it uh but I think there are like two groups That are affected one is it's you know the group that's already positioned uh and they just don't have the stomach for it or don't have the appetite to volatility on a BTC pullback but you know even if they're sitting in their entries for a while just waiting for

it and another one is just like a shorter uh shelf life those traders who basically chase the last in relative terms or the most recent BTC breakout with altcoin leverage and then get wiped Out right before their alts actually turn around yeah well said not fun either way nope I mean it's more brutal than people remember um they're just like bitcoin's up like what people imagine right it's like I have an altcoin that's worth $10 Bitcoin is at 100K um Bitcoin is going to chill a little bit and then I'm going to like it's just

going to transition into all season so my ALT coin is going to go from1 to $100 yeah from green to Green basically yeah yeah and that is very rarely the case um more often than not um the old season starts or like whatever the [ __ ] you want to call Old season right but the the allcoin uptrending movement at the end of the cycle that has been kind of consistent usually starts with pain and um if you can stomach that pain you should position differently um the problem is like timing like something like an

old coin upswing is Really really hard um but I I personally I don't want to sit there and take like a 40% loss um on all coins um it's not really my vibe right so I'd rather time it or try to time it because I know that like if it goes down 40% I'll just be like I'm the [ __ ] biggest idiot trading Vapor wear and taking a 40% loss right now while Bitcoin is still very very high right um so I just I just don't trade the way other people do which is basically

just close your eyes And pray um and the problem with closing your eyes and praying is like I said you can be shaken out um basically at the low low of wherever the market is so go if you if you are in that camp if you're like I want to hold till all season and I'm sure it's coming um you just got to make up your mind um and kind of figure out like what your pain threshold is and if you can actually take it or not and if you can take it I mean all

power to you um I'm never going to talk anyone Out of any like conviction that they have um I just want to make sure that people don't like because I've seen that in the last cycle so many times where people were very very convinced old season was happening and they were very convinced that their o would go up and then they would sell like literally hours or like a day or two or three before it actually did happen um but the problem with that strategy is that if you're wrong and all all season Doesn't come

you literally bought some vaporware [ __ ] that no one's going to take off your hands and you will literally be forever underwater um until you puke it 99% down in five years so Jesus well at least you get a probably a telegram badge or something right yeah which it's a good Community it's it'll come back Community we're all friends here xrp is up 12% again Don uh when you temporarily deris I I Secured your financial future by calling you a [ __ ] um you selling and so naturally that made you redeploy and now

you're up 10 quadrillion dollars more than the open in your p&l I think is the open interest of BTC right something like that I mean more than that more than that yes of course in Zimbabwe and dollars or whatever um in breadcrumbs in breadcrumbs yes uh crime super cycle um I mean it's here I told you did you see my tweet did you see my tweet with uh Where I tweet yes yeah dude dude this is this is the crime super cycle so just for context for our audience um this is obviously like a pro

crypto Administration both kind of Trump by his promises and also the amount of money that the crypto industry piled into like the Trump presidency and the Senate races in particular and they were very successful there was like a huge sweep uh and now now that gensler's resigning and there's talk of a strategic Bitcoin Reserve there's talk of a um like a crypto Zar or something uh you know like a position within the administration specifically for crypto there's kind of an arms race going on where crypto incumbents are like okay we're going to we finally have

these spots and who who Who's going to take them who are going to become the incumbents and so if you're a big huge really well monetized crypto company or crypto protocol you're essentially going To Lobby the government right you're going to use your money influence connections Etc to get quote unquote your guy uh into that position and then through the revolving door that is lobbying uh benefit either your previous employer or whoever's paying you or you know whomever else you happen to be aligned with uh it's like a dirty game I don't think there's any

secret there right as far as uh lobbying and politics and government positions and revolving Doors and so on and so forth now it seems like one of the best allegedly in Minecraft obviously one of the it would appear to me in my honestly held opinion in Minecraft that one of the best teams for this type of corporate level uh lobbying placing the right people in the right place uh type of approach is xrp right yes like for for a while now they they've had a lot of corporate type voices and government type voices uh their

balls in a vice script uh Especially and they're riding off a high especially with the the changes at the SEC and their uh litigation Victory so on and so forth they're like extremely well funded and you know there's a very very good process there like they know how to play the game in the most simple terms their suits their suits their suits uh so what Don is referring to is the fact that the gentleman who's now I think it's like crypto what the [ __ ] do we used to call Him crypto dad or some

[ __ ] crypto yeah yeah um he's now being earmarked for this crypto zaros or at least is one of the front running names and at the same time he has very like Pro xrp tweets or he was retweeting something that was extremely Pro xrp to the extent of oh well you know when the SEC losu happened xrp was this much and you know really it is like a coin that should be this much in the market cap it's like straight up retweeting bull posts yeah yeah he was Retweeting he was retweeting Ripple CEO reminds

us that before the SEC got involved in crypto XP was the second most valuable digital asset it's time to make up for lost time xrp to $20 and that that sounds like it should come from like a crypto account called xrp sniper bull 420 you know and it's coming from the admin like that's like from the like at least like where people think he might sit in like a powerful role and that's like like That's that's something that you would get from like a YouTuber that is like with an o face you know like crypto

like xrp to $20 yes exactly and it's hilarious and it's the crime cycle this is what I mean by it um you basically have to look the like where the big money in crypto is right like the stuff like the people with connections the shady [ __ ] basically um the stuff we hate as as an industry right like xrp is one of them um Ada is one of them like It's the two ones that I picked um I Ada I couldn't get myself to buy just because I find it too disgusting and I mean

like xrp is on the edge of what I'm capable of actually just trading um because I also hate it but uh basically like these Super Rich uh super centralized um like protocols that have a lot of money from kind of just allegedly like taking advantage of people that bought it um that are in powerful positions right Those people you want to look for um if you want to play the crime cycle and like you said very well xrp is very like is perfectly positioned for it um the like the good part about xrp like the

xrp trade on top of all of that is that um you Al like also retail loves it right it's not just the that they can put themselves in a good position with the with the new government it's also do that every every retail person like if they he XP they get a boner right like Just how it is um don't ask me like exactly why besides just that they seem like typical Co types right like you have someone running a company and like it all makes sense like it's the typical structure that you used to

have in the real world so people are like more comfortable um investing quote unquote in it um but yeah that's that's the crime cycle and that's why xp's been doing so well in my opinion um like the Combination of two one retail loves it two uh they can put themselves in a really good position in the in the next government and they already have right like they've already met a bunch of people around Trump and as far as I understand even Trump um talked with him already like there these kind of people are very very

quick to latch on any power that they can get and uh that's bullish for price bearish for the market as a whole I think um because in my Opinion this is like like leech Behavior right um they in it for their own own gain not necessarily for the greater good but uh number go up so how like it doesn't really matter yeah um self-enriching corporate lobbying the new Administration super cycle yes and I mean the the new Administration right like like no one like even in the crypto space people don't really understand what's going on

in crypto right like it takes you years to understand all the Pitfalls and all the scams and how people can manipulate you so you cannot really expect I mean you should be able to expect that the government wouldn't fall for these kind of things but quite honestly like I I don't expect the government to not fall for that yeah just because um like whenever you're really good at something and you see other people talk about it you realize like how [ __ ] these people actually are um and that's kind of like how I Feel

like with crypto like when when when I hear people people talk about it that don't really know like or haven't been in crypto like it's always like like why are you so stupid and I think basically um yeah the the government that we're going to get is going to fall in lot into a lot of pitfalls that we have already fallen into um as long as the advises are exactly these people right like that's problem M you know smooth smooth talker Etc yeah yeah and I Mean they look they look credible from like they they

run around in their suits they they do all the right things they do exactly what you used to like imagine vitalik going to the White House and talking with Trump about like where crypto should go like that is just not something that you're gonna get right or like maybe you get it but it's not someone that necessarily Trump would have around I think um whereas like a corporate type from the XP people um That has dealt with like traditional business for entire life that might be a little bit more interesting for for someone in power

right and that's the that's the sad reality of it all I think because I think like something someone like vitalik that doesn't really like he's not like he does it in my opinion anyway like I think he's made enough money for himself where he doesn't really care about his own wealth as much as these Kind of types at least much much less than most people that are actually even trading crypto and um like he would be a perfect person to kind of help in in in those ways where like he's qualified in stuff and he

knows what he's talking about and he's not out there to just make a buck um but one he probably wouldn't want to and two he wouldn't really be wanted yeah you want like ideal logs in this position not yes self-enriching parasites essentially but What we're going to get is the self-enriching parasites 99% some of these crypto packs that gave a bunch of money for these Senate races Etc they're like Crypton native is you know there like the coinbase people Etc like yeah it's not I I I feel like it's a wor a lesser evil you

know like if we get some like some of these packs that fought against the defire regulation Etc who like at least get it more than they don't and And aren't explicitly bad faith I feel like those people uh guiding the discussions about hires and who to put in the SEC and those cryptos our position I'd prefer them cuz they're like generally Pro crypto Pro competition and like good faith in their approach but if there's like full-on large protocol corporate capture for these positions I think it' be very good in the short term at least for

those tokens cuz self-enriching crime super Cycle but in the in the medium to long term it's it's just a pretty bad bet because you're just not aligned with those people like those people aren't aligned with the industry uh their only interests are their own Financial ones you know like for literally for like one or two tokens yeah which is it's sad and this like this is this is kind of like why I'm like my thesis was basically like crime super cycle and I'm very happy that I'm making money right Because I mean I literally picked

I think the best coin liquidity to kind of just generally like market movement wise uh xrp is one of the most and always has been one of the most liquid coins uh and it went up more than 2x now like since I've since I've established the position right right um and I could see it go up like a couple X's more um it's still like it went up 10x H 10 10x 10% today um it went up like 10% almost yesterday um and um it's still performing like Even after having done all of that move

it's still one of the better performing all coins right now right like you're seeing like even on the low time frames you're seeing a bunch of oin struggle a little bit and then you look at xrp and you just see like compl not domination so I'm quite happy with with like the choice there but I'm quite sad with what it means for the industry and I think just generally um it's really easy um to fool someone that isn't full-time crypto Into thinking that that is what success in crypto looks like right when you when you're

just like hey the people buying my coin like XP is going up infinite um I am rich like I like I made a shitload of money um like that is how success looks like uh to an outsider like that's all all the things that you would want right um and I think if you come with that to Trump and you're like hey like one I'm super [ __ ] Rich because I'm really good at this and two my coin is Going up infinite right now um let me handle some of the like or let me

kind of influence some of the lawmaking um I think that would probably kind of um go quite well as like a pitch so like that's why I'm like I'm on one hand very happy because I'm making a bunch of money but on the other hand very saddened because I think uh there could be a lot of damage done by these people um being being close with Trump yeah and at least the previous Trump Administration basically got captured by the swamp you know that there's some precedent for that like those cabinet hires and stuff were just

not not very good so we'll see if he manag just to surround himself with other people this time around uh from a from a trading perspective if we run through some of these alt coins so you like rebor xrp right yes um I mean I I I didn't sell spot so like I just rebot The The Leverage part so you kept spot and on The Leverage side was it anything complicated or just like hey this is a consolidation and it's going to keep going up I draw a tri diagonal on the 4 Hour um and

that's literally it like I drew it diagonal because like it's the same with do right now for example like Dogecoin Dogecoin on The Daily time frame is like a very boxed in consolidation right and you look at xrp usdt when it was trading before like the Last two days like that was a very boxed in consolidation too and um I've seen these consolidations million times before in Prior markets and whenever the market is this strong like xfp has been like from 0.5 when it went up basically there was no pullback right um people want to

pull back whenever they Happ happens um and when you then get a a boxed in consolidation like that um I usually just look for the first breakout that I can see and then just blindly buy It because more more often than not it Just shoots straight up and that's exactly what xrp did so if you go on the 4 Hour draw a diagonal from the the the the high not necessarily the the the wick but the High um down that's the one you tweeted basically yeah yeah yeah I tweeted that one um then then you

get like the exra just basically walked out of that retested it and then had like started pull like pushing up and I bought some there and then I literally Saw uh saw the like the tweet that I sent out like the the the criminal tweet that we talked about earlier with the target of $20 xrp I saw that and I was like I mean this is just something where I would be really upset if I didn't buy it just because it's like if you have someone that might be in an important role in the crypto

Administration tweeting xrp to $20 yeah it's insane is which is the most retail attractive coin in the world Right like people are like just going nuts over this thing I mean that's the combination like that's the crime combination that I just couldn't pass up on and then I was like okay I'm just going to buy more so bought more and then I bought a little bit more um when it pulled back and um yeah I have less just to be fully transparent like I was big big in both leverage and like spot on the way

up I have less now um but I think honestly Like it's more of a fumble than it is like profit taking so basically um I like I I could have had like kept just kept my position I think I would would have outperformed massively and it's not because I'm a genius risk manager manager it's just because I fmed a little bit um but I'm I'm totally fine like it's like I have enough of a position where I'm not going to be upset if it goes up um it's it's quite considerable for me given that I

usually Don't put much money in in alt coins so like I'm I'm good on that front uh on the XP side of things I think that could just easily go to stupid targets like just generally I think a realistic Target for this thing would be like $2 doish right two to3 um but in my mind like that's already like so [ __ ] ridiculous because it went from 0.5 to basically two that would be like a huge multiplier given the liquidity it has and given Just how much size you can put in this thing but

I think if all things go well for xlp it could go to and I will never hold like I I can tell you this much already I will never hold that high but I I could see this go to like $5 maybe even six seven 8 N9 10 uh if everything goes completely nuts and it we are in the process of going nuts right Bitcoin is almost at 100K um so if retail comes in in any shape or form and if you get like if you get some more government Officials tweeting xrp to $20 uh

I could see it go to 10 um and that is not like telling you to buy XP now at 1.4 um because I'm never going to hold to $10 I'll be probably going to be fully out of XP um by five if not earlier um and I might dump it tomorrow if it shows weakness but I'm saying just generally um yeah yeah I mean that's just me right and that's me being more defensive than I need to be just from an analytic standpoint uh we're kind of Having the perfect storm for xrp right now and

for that being the case I think it's actually not that high yet um so yeah if this pulls back proper um that might be an interesting play to look at so the crime isn't fully priced in no I think the crime is not priced in at all yet I think this is literally just this is the SEC basically falling on his on on its nose right like this is X I think right now like this move is Basically and this is pull up xrp BTC right um and put it on the monthly chart I think

the current repricing of xrp is literally just um kind of like the SEC pressure being gone like that's not including that retail is like that retail loves the coin it's not including that there's a crime wave that I'm expecting to happen um like you look at xrp monthly xrp BTC on the monthly uh it retested the range low and now it's going Straight up and it's basically back two levels uh it's been in 2021 um yeah I don't know like it on on that time frame it doesn't look that crazy even though it's been the

the craziest performer and I think just generally if the all coins go crazy I think XP is going to go craziest out of all of them well there you go um I'm wondering if this is ends up being one of those instances done where your TP and up Being an amazing long entry uh almost guaranteed like this is this is this is one of the ones where I'm going to and I I'm already at this point where I'm like this is Criminal like I'm not supposed to make this much money on the trade sure um

this easily so I just want to TP all the time because one I [ __ ] hate the xrp guys right like I just don't like it uh and two I'm just like this is too much um and I'm kind of holding myself back At all times so like don't be surprised if I dumped this and or like don't be too bearish or whatever um if I dump it um like I mean if there's good reasons to be bearish be bearish but like I'm probably going to sell distance probably going to 2x or 3x afterwards

um that's kind of what I think so if you want an entry you either wait for a pullback or wait for Dawn to sell yeah yeah but I mean we'll see we'll see how it goes maybe I'm bull Posting top right now um and it just uh just CEST but just with how everything is setting up I just don't really see how how xrp is like a worse bet than almost anything else in the market what about Dogecoin because that at least to some extent shares a similar narrative to government crypto C centered around the

token with the actual Department of government efficiency thing right yes um you were very early to that thesis in different ways less so even you know Even pre- crime cycle the argument was like this is the Normie retail mcoin plus Elon Musk is backing Trump etc etc uh that that's obviously been a [ __ ] mental move that you've traded around a little bit did you Reby this when did you Reby it um does the Target remain unchanged it's all going to [ __ ] dump it and Rey it again like what is the target

remains unchanged oh I love it um I I think it's in the same boat as xfp um it's just the like it's basically xfp Is the is is has the added crime bonus okay um which I think which is massive yes I think Dogecoin is like the worst xrp trade um but it's still a good trade like ta wise it looks really good I at this price point um I don't give too much like elon's kind of elon's factor has diminished quite a bit um he tweets stuff doesn't really move the price which is generally

not the best that's not what you want to see um on Doge like you want to see Elon have a big price Impact to the upside when he tweets uh if he doesn't like that means it's running out of steam a little bit but just generally like you look at the Dogecoin USD on The Daily time frame that's a good chart um it's the same same kind of thing that I talked about with XP like you you go up a bunch and you go sideways and um can we draw a trend line or something on

the 4 Hour uh I haven't actually even tried uh it doesn't how about that I me yeah you can From highs yeah right now it's getting rejected again um by that trend line at least I don't know if you have the same one as I have yeah it looks a bit looks like it's getting rejected um so Trine breakout on the table for Doge basically would be the same trade as X there's the signal just need to give me the leverage stop Target but I I like it less than I like xrp sure um but

I still feel I think from all like just looking at all coins Generally that's one of the better bet okay xrp already up Dogecoin you have at least some sort of diagonal set up if not basically the bottom of the consolidation right I assume that's also valid when it comes to impulse consolidation hoping for impulse your options are to either be early to the subsequent impulse leg or do business within the consolidation right um and within the consolidation it's towards The bottom where you're going to get better entries by definition um so sameish thing applies

any other old coins I mean TRX you're still a hating you're a hater of TRX despite all the priors that you spoke about with regard to connections and um looseness with the legal code I know exactly what terms you want to use but i' how long have I been trying to Shi you TRX on I feel like it's been years and look at that [ __ ] weekly chart ah yeah too long but No I just like this is I I'm down for like I I mean this sounds terrible right right but I'm I'm down

for the crime to be to be um in the real world if the crime is like with the chart itself right I see okay I get a little bit less comfortable so chart crime is worse than real crime no no no like the real crime is much worse in chart crime but like what the [ __ ] am I supposed to do when Justin Sun literally controls like it feels like Justin Sun controls like like 99% of TRX and then you're just basically dancing in the palm of his hand and I mean to be fair

it's a little bit similar with the the xfp guys um but they don't necessarily manipulate it as like it doesn't feel as manipulated price-wise the chart itself okay as TRX does um but just generally like I mean I'm already disgusted with myself trading yeah you're out of moral it's like are you out of margin it's like no but I'm out of like moral bandwidth for These [ __ ] coins yeah I mean at some point like you know what about salana is there an all-time high trade that's cooking here I mean buy the [ __

] alltime high and never look back I mean I've talked about this on the on the Wednesday stream like a bunch basically like we had the weekly breakout right yes um and that's been the for me that's been the all-time high breakout already right because basically um that was a range right below alltime High broke out Of it uh and I've been saying like hey as long as this as long as this holds $180 um there's no real good reason to expect this to go down um and it's still the same y Target remains unchanged

exactly yeah I mean that makes sense the oldtime high breakout trades itself has been a bit tricky for some of these more liquid coins right um but I still think it would at least provide you with a like obviously it was better at 200 in terms of just like like how Clear it was technically but I think you can still in most cases treat the alltime high as more or less a breakout level as long as you don't get washed out if it doesn't get their first go that I think that that's the kind of

necessary qualifier to add here I still think alltime highs using it as a range high or as a breakout level or as a trigger is completely reasonable uh there's just like a additional provision there that sometimes the market gets Jittery on those so you should be able to stomach like even a shallow pullback or a bit of volatility if it doesn't get that first time round um and also for salana I think you know if if this like alltime high breakout follows through uh and in general being so close to the alltime high there's no

reason it should start losing like really close ranges if that makes sense like I'm eying up like 24ish as the 4H hour pre- breakout level 230 240 if there's like an all-time high push to 1,000 Etc and some Target it really shouldn't be [ __ ] falling back into ranges or through clusters in my opinion at least that cluster is a nice one it's not bad that 4 Hour little little bit of sideways action not terrible looks very nice on the hourly as well so I think it looks good on the daily too like 240

yeah yeah it's it's nice on The Daily so I think you know it's more of a The big breakout the relevant breakout is already happened now this is kind of an updated invalidation so to speak uh and you know if the market gets washed um I think that's a good area to do business as long as you're you know you can stomach a wick to the lower level cuz that's a lot of the time how these was outs go right you have like a the nearest level to the chart and then you've got like one

level a bit under it and what will often happen is if the Wash out is big enough it'll actually just straight up trade through your nearest level Wick at the one below it uh and then eventually close at the nearest one if that makes sense so you don't want to put yourself in a position where you're doing business at the nearest level but you've got like every single liquidation price and Harden validation there uh and not allow it to uh you know print a bit of a wick yeah you can't have the luxury of looking

at [ __ ] closes if you're like leveraged to the tits right cuz y That's why that consideration is relevant there um decoin xrp salana I mean there's a bunch of other stuff obviously that's trading a lot are there any other metas do you find interesting uh some of these AI agent meme coins exchange listings uh chill guy got listed on binance on bybit I think sorry um and on breakout LOL um yeah I think the narratives we Spoke about last week were what like Boomer coin crime super cycle uh AI [ __ ] yeah

animal I remember that I should talk the a AI stuff a little bit and um I'm I'm still not boat like if you look at Goat for example this the one that's I think the biggest one I'm not even sure like I I don't like this is this is the dumbest I legit this is even dumber than the mcoin like that's such dumb met meta where I'm just like this is so dumb I Don't like I think it's it it's so dumb it's too dumb which is but so useful isn't it cuz like AI has

so much hype and even if these Asians aren't like fully autonomous or whatever we get to get the tech and AI nerds into crypto like it's it's a very useful narrative in that regard isn't it we're doing decentralized science now yeah but it's it's such dumb [ __ ] like it's so dumb okay but is this not a bullish retest on The Daily time frame why am I not going All in on this r i you should probably on goats yes ah good luck yeah I I mean I don't know like I don't know maybe

it comes back maybe it doesn't but I just find it so incredibly dumb that I'm just like hey I I I can I can trade meme coins if if I must I can like do a bunch of [ __ ] but this is just like the peak stupidity um not and also they get unseated it feels like every week like zero bro and there's some other ones that are still more on chain And not centralized exchange facing uh it seems very easy to cannibalize uh kind of attention and market share in that meta specifically so

uh got to be nimble with it what about whiff is W wash now is it too I mean it is yeah and I mean I I'm not hating on it just because I just think just generally like the meme coins um and I think this is a little bit on drag like this is a little bit of a drag on Dogecoin as well um but less so than on the other meme coins is that there's just infinite of them now yeah dude that's like this is what I talked about last time like when I [

__ ] talk like meme coins right like when you look at Whi when I should talked whiff at like $350 I think last time it was um and then it nuked towards like $1 right um that was the exact same argument I made back then right because like pump Like pump fun was basically like so so big back then like every time pump fun when goes through a hype cycle just like everything in m in the meme space dies and that's kind of like how I look at it right now like you've had you had

that stupid kid rugging you had like you had the typical kind of top signals like for for that meta right and um I think it just takes liquidity way like there's infinite shiny things that you can Rush after um why hold the washed up whatever Boomer coin um from like 500 years ago when you can just Chase the chill guy or like whatever the newest the newest memes um and I think basically memes are eating themselves now um there's so many that I think uh that they're all struggling to compete for attention and liquidity and

I think this is why whiff is doing so poorly whether you think whiff is a good meme or not um is another story but I think just gen just the the lows that we've gotten to right In discussion when we talk about like is is a dog with a a good memes it's like Jesus Christ when you actually stop and think about it for a second like it's actually painful um but anyway the reason why I think meme coins are doing poorly is because there's too many um Good Luck competing with everyone else there's going

to be a few that make it out maybe it's with uh looking at Price action doesn't look like it uh if anything if you look at Price action Pepe might be one um that survives but um yeah I'm I'm not too optimistic on these just generally I mean ta wise at least whiff doesn't look bad as long as it holds the breakout right oh yeah I mean 2 I mean to be fair like I think even ta like just like if if I want to be brutally honest and just not kind of be be nice

to people um if you go and look at like the daily time frame and you had like a Little bit of like a a breakout above 3.8 or something like if you go back above there um fair enough right but as long as you're trading below like 3.8 or like let's say $4 um like that's just brutal like that just looks kind of like like kind of shitty um now if retail comes back in like let's say you get like big xrp big whatever movements like of the of the Bitcoins like we've had Ada move

a bunch um maybe that rotates into all coins uh Into meme coins and and then they do better and then maybe you get another breakout but right now um I don't know I look at it and I just see I see weakness and I see uh I see infinite other meme coins like it uh which makes it really hard to justify I think buying these just because if I if I'm buying with I'm not buying a 100 other things that I could buy that are very very similar yeah that I mean when people want blue

chips I think a lot of the Time that's pretty bearish if something becomes a blue chip because by definition you're not early anymore and the sort of multiples that are left on the table become lower over time like you just look at defi 1.0 or even 2.0 right like a lot of these Protocols are are blue chip like they work and they serve a very specific purpose and uh they're the leaders in the category Etc but from a speculation point of view that that's not something to look Forward to you know unless you're riding it

into Blue Chip status but once it becomes a blue chip you should be like well I'm not early to this anymore there's less Edge to capture the novelty is gone the multiplier ceiling is lower so you know if you really want to juice it by definition I think you should stay away from Blue Chips unless it's BTC but that's kind of absurdly in its own category at this point it feels like yeah yeah I think basically um a lot of The value has been captured and now you're kind of like competing with other coins like

whiff is competing with the big coins now like sheep and um like I mean do and Pepe and all of those and um it's at the market cap where it's harder to pump basically so I think that's why like yeah if you're really looking for the big the big gains that's not necessarily where you would want to look for them um unless you you start entering the the full-blown [ __ ] old Season um but at that point I've I mean you can just like like I did with xrp right like you see you start

seeing something uh you start seeing some strength and then you just like okay f okay I'll I'll roll with that and I think that's the better strategy for these uh rather than just holding and praying that um that it comes back because at the end of the day all the meme coins right none of them will necessarily come back right um I think 99% and that includes whiff and that includes like stuff like sheep or like like Bon or whatever those things like over enough years over large enough time frame they will disappear like that's

the whole it's the whole point of memes right memes come and go and if you think that a coin like a coin just because it's a coin it will not go I think that's a little bit silly right like memes don't necessarily stay around forever H you trade them until they get A little bit more um until they they reach the hype cycle and then you just dump it and never look back so it's why I think holding meme coins just generally long term seems crazy to me you trade them and it's a good place

to trade and has been a good place to trade um but you always have to have like an exit strategy on those in my opinion yeah just add that at the end in case you get sued by like 50 people yeah people are going to be Upset at what I said anyway well this is how it is just another day um I think that's most of it done like I was looking at some other stuff before the stream uh like on V for example looking at Market the top gainers for the last week are pretty

interesting there's om xlm as an xrp proxy trade that really [ __ ] takes me back to 2017 it's like Peak it's it's 2017 kind of cycle Behavior like I think generally like people keep comparing this to 2021 and I Think the reason why they do it is because they haven't been around in 2017 but this is so similar to 2017 in my opinion like it's so much more similar to 2017 and is to 2021 yeah I mean that's true just this you know the signals are going to be of a different magnitude you know

like in 2017 you had a celebrity mention crypto we were like oh my God look it's so mainstream now you've got like crime in the White House y we've really made it out the hood with that one uh xlm H bar is another one um xrp obviously Troy xtz how's that for a [ __ ] name up 55% in a week done Jesus algo you know some of these CRV I don't want to be seeing some of these names Ada with the you know like yeah in 2021 in 2021 when they rallied everything was over

yeah in 2017 when they rallied every like the old season started I mean even op is going up for goodness sakes you know make up Your mind whether we are in 2021 or 2017 if we're in 2021 you should sell everything right now if you're in 2017 um The Best Is Yet To Come that's a perfect way to wiend the show done I mean then let's end it let's end it um that's all from us for this week before you click off please leave a like on this video subscribe to the channel leave us a

comment the market is you know we used to keep pace of BTC and now we're getting absolutely smoked so we Would much rather make up that Difference by our subscribe account going up instead of BTC going down so do your you know Play Your Part And subscribe to the channel as always the show is brought to you by woo links available in in the description below they launched some they they partnered with Kido to launch like George I think is the name with which is some smart sentiment trading with like Quant risk management AI bot

if I were to see this In my inbox I'd think it was a turbo scam just with all those buzzwords but actually looks quite interesting and you can transparently either just follow it or copy trade it if you want uh I think it'll be quite fun maybe on this show or on a standalone blog post to do like a review of its trading after like two or three weeks uh but in general the copy trading and counter trading the social trading in General on Woo is doing really well so if it's been a while Since

you've checked it out you can do so by the links in the description below that's all from us hope you all have a wonderful week end and we'll see you next week bye-bye