Why This Crypto Dump Will Get MUCH Worse! [Expert Trader Warning]

Welcome back to the channel today I have a very special guest joining us Jason Pino who's going to be giving us a look through the crypto markets we're going to look at Bitcoin where we are in the cycle and what to expect for the next few months when is the Bitcoin top is the top already in Jason's price targets thoughts on altcoins and a lot more Jason welcome back to the channel and thanks for joining us thanks for having Me on good day to everyone I just took a look at the I I just took

a look at the S&P 500 futures we can see they're actually down at the moment and I think this is the lowest they've been since November 5th so clearly a lot of fear in the Market at the moment how are you feeling right now about the current sentiment I mean yeah it's down there's fear there I think it's even hit extreme fear in terms of the price I'm feeling fine because we haven't broken down from Any key structure uh macro still in play is still up and this to me is what I'm waiting for in

terms of a new anchor point for the market basically like where you could measure from so measure a new low from I don't know when that low is going to come in I don't know exactly what price it's going to be but I think we're in the process of finding out when that is whereas from what I can understand from a lot of the market they think that the top might already be in I Don't think we're there yet um right now we're basically retraced almost all of that Trump pump and you can see there

on my chart there the S&P 500 and that current Red Bar that's on the on the screen there is basically into that Gap from when the election was so there's Tuesday I can just draw on the screen here that's Tuesday and that's Wednesday from from the election so you can see from the price point here it's basically into that Gap so everything that people Were hyped up on and what Trump's going to do and this and that from the election well it's basically come right back to that area so potentially you never know for sure

obviously no one has a crystal ball uh but you can see that the that has basically worn off from the market and we're potentially resetting the sentiment which I think is a good thing longer term for the market so there might be some short-term pain and my next Target for the short-term pain Is somewhere around 5600 to 5700 you might be wondering what the hell does that matter if you're trying to trade altcoins and Bitcoin and you know get get a little bit degenerate about the about the game but if this is on the on

the way down not impossible but as I say it's unlikely that we're going to see anything really take off for altcoins and and BTC in the meantime I think a lot of the panic right now is clearly being driven by Macro it seems like everyone's talking about macro again CPI what jome Pal's going to do what Trump's response is going to be in terms of um interest rates and tariffs how do you view that do you think that really matters in terms of where we're headed and can that maybe explain why we've gotten the pullback

I mean anything can explain the pullback but that's typically what happens if you've been following the news Cycles it's like the pullback Happens and then they try to explain it based on stuff that's already happened and I I think people just it's human nature right we want to find out why and then we think that by finding out why we can prevent the issue next time but typically next time the same why doesn't play out exactly the same way so people then go to well this time is different it's like no that's not how it

works because if everyone did the same thing at the with the same response then you Would get an even worse result so it's like the interest rates right interest rates they look like they're not coming down now so this might be part of the the macro thesis at play with the narrative but it might just be the market resetting from uh having already priced in that there were going to be more interest rate cuts and now they're not and it's just maybe just a balancing act but then you can see from the technicals that the

Trend was down the top has been in now for several weeks and there are some pretty clear levels to the downside at 5600 the Orange Line there is your 200 day moving average that's at around 5572 so on the you know the next few days it's probably going to climb up close to 5600 as well and then in terms of an anchor point you've got August low here this is that Japanese Yen carry trade that basically freaked out the market everyone called for a new Recession on that day and well lo and behold it marked

the low as it typically does and that was our Anchor Point to work from now so I think we're in the midst of forming another another Anchor Point so is your pro obviously everything's a probability in crypto there's no absolutes do you think probabilistically we are going to go to 5600 or potentially lower on the S&P potentially because the trends are still down you can see my little red squares At the top here just using a swing indicator and lower highs lower lows suggest further downside right it sounds pretty damn simple but why why make

it more complicated than it is the one day is down the uh one day two bar sorry the one week is down so just keep following the trend so it's not it's not a bad thing to have a correction in a market it's actually super super healthy especially when it looks like it's going to be a balanced correction and at the Moment it's in in the form of that balancing meaning you know we're coming back down to sort of halfway points we're not breaking key turning points in the market so just let it let it

do its thing I'd love to have a look at your Bitcoin chart um as it relates to the S&P obviously they're quite correlated in terms of risk but what are you seeing on bitcoin specifically because it run up way more aggressively than the S&P it did so it seems like there's more Strength in Bitcoin coin longer term but if we're seeing the say S&P come back to fill in that gap of the the Trump pump or the election pump whatever people want to call it right it's basically from the election everything ran up pretty hard

uh the S&P has done that the NASDAQ is not at the Gap yet but there's the Gap there it did it in November um one or two weeks after the election but it potentially is on the way back down you can see lower highs lower lows as Well the Dow Jones has been down for several days there it's actually filled in that Gap uh your Russell 2000s are the lowest well you know the bottom 2000 stocks the small caps you guys love trading alt coins same sort of thing here that's also filled in the pump

trump coming back to test the 200 we moving average I mean I could go down a number of charts they're on a correction why would I think that Bitcoin wouldn't be on that path as well it doesn't mean It's a bad thing it's just part of a of a correction and it doesn't necessarily seem like it's not out of the out of the craziness that it shouldn't do that especially after such a significant move to the upside so my personal belief is that if we do get a correction on bitcoin it's likely going to happen

over the next few weeks like let's say you know we do go to the 80s um my belief is that that would likely be triggered by some sort Of fomc CPI debacle or something within the first week weeks or days of of the Trump presidency um and seasonality suggests that February and March are typically better months if you look historically for ethereum and Bitcoin January actually does have every four years these like Corrections so are you similar in that thinking that if this downtrend is to extend it's probably going to happen sooner rather than later

Or do you have a differing opinion there it's always hard because people work off different time frames and they have different uh how you know the length of their retention as well so this is just the daily on bitcoin I guess look to answer your question and then I'll get into why I think in the short term there is the possibility that very short term we come up and test some of those higher prices maybe that's already occurred today you know like This is Monday here it's come up run up to uh 95,00 you know

I'm on the bit stamp roughly all the same right 95,00 and maybe that's the short term any much further I could see it going to sort of 99 100K because that's where those previous levels were that's in the short term but in the longer term I think yeah it doesn't necessarily have to happen over the next few weeks um but it seems like it could be in that time frame to do that because of the extent Of time that we've been down from this all-time high already so it's been 23 days to the current low

and 27 days to today's current date underneath the old all-time high and I often refer to that on the channel especially after we've seen significant signals at play u that um basically let you know about the strength and the weakness of the market to try and make it as simple as possible I think it would be valuable for people to have more perspective on The uh macro cycle for Bitcoin so how are you currently viewing where we are in the cycle I spoke to you a bit off camera earlier and you said you know we've

essentially been long or and you specifically I know because you were joining my Twitter spaces um back in 2022 so you've been long since then like pretty much the bottom and I got to say you're one of the guys that called it pretty much spot on um much better than other analysts like I genuinely mean That and uh you know that's one of the reasons why I respect your opinion but obviously that means you've been long for like over two years now so so I'm just wondering how you're viewing the time frame on bitcoin like

I know there's a lot of discussion that bitcoin's topped anom had that very controversial tweet about Bitcoin 75% being topped what's your number that you know in terms of if bitcoin's topped and if we haven't seen a top when are you Expecting that to happen yeah well you know thank you very much firstly for following along and you know the K words um I I will like preface that with I've I've found my rhythm with getting into lows much much easier than trying to get out at tops so I'm not like uh you know foolproof

to anything but I find lows way easier to be buying and I think that might be my Edge when it comes to the market because at lows people just get way more fearful than They need to and like we saw at those bottoms most people left the market even though you could tell them black and blue every single video you probably could see that on my channel stay with the market don't leave when things get boring don't don't switch off because there's nothing going on and you know I can come back in a few weeks

and everything will be all right when you miss out on learning from the market over those few weeks you basically miss Out on time that you can't get back and that's pretty much what the majority of people do so if you want the same results that the majority of people get do what they do only enter crypto when there's something exciting going on and headlines and leave when there's not really much going on like do the opposite and that comes down to your attention as well so yeah that's pretty much those lows um the highs

look longer term I think there're still further to Go on the upside based purely on my macro thesis which is that there is still longer to go in the real estate and economic cycle and I supect we're still going to see further upside in the stock markets as well therefore I think we still have a um further to go for for BTC oh you've got the chart there fantastic but but just let me add one quick thing on that is that I don't expect Bitcoin to top at the same time as real estate or the

economy or the Stock markets I suspect and Bitcoin has not been through a full 18e cycle yet but I suspect Bitcoin and cryptos will Top before the rest of the markets they top before the stock markets potentially even um the real estate and economic Cycles well which is which is what you see here so you asking the question before how much longer do I think there is to go I think that was roughly around the question yeah I'm looking sometime in 20125 I know most people are saying The same thing um so I think it's

going to be a tricky one nonetheless and and as I said I think lows are way easier therefore remain with an investment if you looking to make this a long-term I know it sounds boring but look that's worked for me and that's all I can share with you I think what most people and I think we'll speak about allcoins in more depth slightly later in the video after we finish our Bitcoin discussion but judging by the sentiment it seems like Most people all they really want is one more big push to the upside on on

bitcoin and alts they just want that big blowoff do you think that's happening do you think at some point this year we're going to get that big blowoff or do you think things will be a little more muted man I I I honestly don't know it's a hard one right like I don't know I don't want to be giv too much hopium out there and people losing their minds and their their wallets and all This sort of stuff I think there is still further upside to go whether it's this huge blowoff top that everyone's waiting

for from 2021 and even bigger in7 uh that we had in 2017 I don't think they're going to experience the same feeling I think it's like I know you're in Dubai so I can't make those comments um about grabbing that feeling you're at a nightclub and you've you know anyway moving on from that it doesn't happen the Same it doesn't happen the same way every time and everyone keeps trying to chase that same hit there's probably better way there and the same hit I don't think hits the the way it did in the past that

was what I felt in 2021 and I got caught out there I was thinking there's got to be more to this but it wasn't but everyone who had joined in 2021 thought it was absolutely amazing and yeah there were some all coins that went absolutely ballistic but Um the you know for for the majority of it it was pretty hard to find them and I think this Cycle's getting even more difficult to find those ones and I've found with several allcoins um some of them look like they're in distribution patterns at the moment as opposed

to accumulating for another big pump up that's not to say that some of the altcoins won't make it and I think you've you know you're on to the next narrative all the time finding out I Think what's next like you know AI agent or something like that right but it's shifting a lot quicker because everyone's waiting for this big pump and the big pump's already happened and they're waiting for it to happen again and it doesn't and then the next narrative comes along you know what the problem is there's just so much alline dilution this

cycle like there are so many new launchers and even if you look at the AI agent sector for example like You had goat which kicked it off and that was the obvious player at the time then you had fcoin and and genon which kind of started to run then you had AI 16z and AI xbt run now you have def AI running so that's just one narrative from October and in the space of three months you've had the leader become the lagger and then a new leader and then a new leader and in that period

rwa had a huge run and then cooled off llms AI Tech had a huge run then cooled off uh the normi coins xrp Iota Etc they had a run and then cooled off so you're seeing these like really fast rotations almost like these like minic Cycles within a within a bigger cycle so I think the reason why I don't think we are going to get a blowoff top on on every single altcoin I think there'll be certain sectors which outperform I think the reason why fundamentally we don't get that like we did in 2021 is

because There's just so much more dilution now I think the amount of tokens that have launched and obviously this data has been is being skewed by pump fun and the ease of launching new coins with agents Etc but it's it's over 100x to 1,000x since last cycle um previously you needed a smart contract Dev actually that number's probably off because that was based on last year now you have agents deploying millions of tokens a day so number's probably a lot Higher than that because you need a smart uh contract Dev last cycle that you know

you need to pay money to now you can just go on to pump fund launch coins spin up a website haha we're an AI narrative let's do a bunch of marketing get a bunch of hype and um the hype Cycles are just ramp faster and faster so like how do you win at that game I I honestly don't know so I just look for stuff that already has a history but I guess that's Where your you know expertise yeah crypto's all about an ed you said before your Edge is probably your ability to to remain

unemotional during times of turbulence and actually position uh for the longer term my Edge in this market has been you know the ability to spot narratives and and hit those rotations um but you need to kind of find it find it yourself and I think there's a balance like people could theoretically Implement your strategy And my strategy balanced maybe take some of the narratives that are going to be longer term position in in those leaders and follow the the general Cycle Theory and you can probably still make money so you don't need to over rotate

but if you are in a position where you have time and you have an edge then you can probably over rotate and make money but I have this tweet on the screen because um I think it's an interesting framework that I wanted your thoughts on Doc xbt Who's one of the um traders in the Mars high club he says that if you change your mindset from the one year uh four the one foure cycle sorry into multiple mini risk on Cycles you'll probably be happier and perform better because your time frames would change I think

he's mostly referencing altcoins here but what do you make of that mindset shift I think if you are looking at that for altcoins for this cycle it makes more sense because there have been many Risk on Cycles within altcoins basically I guess You' look at it in terms of narratives like multiple mini narratives like 2020 and 2021 it seemed like there was only a handful and I can distinctly remember there was like Defi and then it rolled into everything else you know they were the three yeah that's right that's right and then def didn't work

as well and this cycle we saw like rwa and AI early on I remember injective was mental and injective really hasn't Done anything and at the time I called injective like maybe the link of this cycle because link went ballistic in 2020 and really didn't give you that same sort of Bitcoin return um look it's it might all come full circle again because of how fast things are playing out so that's the difficulty when there's more cryptos and more people trying to make money from it yeah 100% I like this quote I was just reading

through the comments Mercury has this quote people overestimate what they can accomplish in a year and underestimate what they can achieve in 10 years small wins compounded consistently is the way so I think when it comes to all coins this is how you have to view it keep compounding small wins keep taking your wins and probably funnel back into Bitcoin on during the bare markets that's kind of strategy some of the things I do with my altcoins like I think I'm remembering This because it happened just over the weekend right one of them I sell

the majority of well not the majority actually I sell enough to pay down the risk meaning how much capital I put down and now I can just let the altcoin do whatever it does like I don't care if the altcoin goes down 50% because I'm at zero you know I'm at um there's no risk in it for me anymore so people can do that but I think everyone just sort of they freak out and they just want to Keep holding on for the longest ride possible it's there's nothing wrong with just taking the small wins

there's nothing wrong with making it boring if you're going to make money it's not exciting and that's the way it should be in my opinion the way I've seen it work and I'm guilty of this completely but I think a lot of people cuz I see it every day on in the comments on Twitter in Discord everyone want they have these targets they want a 5x or 10x so they go Into the Bull Run of like okay I need to 10x my portfolio so obviously if you have that outcome attached to your identity or your

you know your judgment on on your self success is based on that outcome then you have to take on a lot of risk to achieve that outcome and obviously you're going to feel quite bad if you don't and I feel like part of the reason why sentiment so bad at the moment is because a lot of people have had these numbers I can 5x I can 10x That's my Target and now they're starting to come to terms or or maybe just consider the possibility because they still might right but they're considering oh maybe I'm going

to fail again this cycle and not 5 to 10x do you think maybe expectations are too high or do you think it's more of a mindset thing yes I think expectations are way too high because you're basically playing a game that you've never played before to try And make returns that you've never made before it just doesn't make sense so it's like why make life more difficult for yourself and I'm I'm the boring old guy in this like call me a boomer or whatever it is right but like you don't expect to do that any

in any other area in life except gambling which is what all coins are essentially people turn it into gambling for sure yeah like you said a lot of People a lot of us were up we're up just a few months ago and now from that point didn't sell back down like if it really means that much to you if it means life and get out like what the hell you doing like why ride the thing back down just before the video we were talking I think this is a relevant point to insert this about thinking

of uh gains in terms of time instead of money so I General human time like hours of Your life so if you have a monthly salary of $5,000 and you've invested $5,000 in the market and you lose 5,000 you probably feel okay cuz you know okay in 30 days I'm going to make this back I only lost 30 days whereas if you you've invested 6 months of salary 30,000 and you lose 30k you're going to feel a lot worse because that's six months and that's very daunting like I'm GNA have to work from January until

July to make this money Back so I think in terms of sizing risk in the market when you're exposing yourself to altcoins having that framework of I'm going to think about this in terms of how long it takes me to make back that I think helps the psychology of how you actually trade and how maybe fearful you get during draw Downs as well guaranteed and sometimes I've even gone too small on them where it's like it just doesn't even matter so you got to find that balance needs to Matter enough for you to pay attention

yeah it's got to matter enough but not matter so much that you're freaking out and you're just having a go at everything and everyone is everyone else's fault no at the end of the day it's our own fault I want to highlight this tweet um because now we're on the topic of all coins I'd love your opinion on Domino basically Doc is calling this now I haven't gotten his full thoughts on Where he thinks it's going from now but he's calling the Bitcoin dominance move just a fake out uh it kind of looks like it

if you actually look at the technicals here do you pay attention to bitcoin dominance as a chart and and is there a trend that you're seeing because one of my predictions cidly earlier in the year was I thought dominance for the cycle or at least for the first half of the year had probably topped this last couple of weeks of price action is Making things look a little bit more dubious it kind of looks more like a fake out than a than a top for dominance now so I'd love your saying a fake out to

the downside or to the upside yeah it looks like a a bull trap on dominance to me right I I don't necessarily follow the dominance chart as much even though my prediction is dominance is topped so I hope I'm still right but I'm just looking at this tweet and um by doc which is stirring people up in the Comments so I wanted your opinion on it's fake breakdown of Bitcoin dominance in my opinion it's the most evil sh happened this cycle yeah look right now you have lower highs and higher lows so there's no decisive

action yet but it could be you know it could be either there's just not not enough information yet once you get a breakout above roughly 60% exactly or below that level there at probably 54 55 that that that's where your answer will come but um yeah I don't think there's any point in trying to play it now because you just there's not enough information yet but I follow the usdt dominance a lot more and the usdt dominance is um showing signs that it looks like it wants to go higher which is not good for Bitcoin

and cryptos so let me just take a little bit this off so you can see here is a weekly chart just to take out some of the other noise so far we've Had a low come in at about 3.8% so usdt dominance if people don't know it's basically well usdt and how much dominance usdt has if there's more dominance therefore you would expect there to be less money Bitcoin and cryptos and if there's less dominance you would expect there to be more money in Bitcoin and cryptos you know it's just coming out of the dominance

so at the moment well you know we've been tracking this for a while now especially When it broke down in October um and then once it got into November and hit these lows at about 3.8 3.9% it really started to pay more attention because it was starting to form a similar pattern to what happened back in 2021 see on my my chart here yeah yeah so you got this you know sort of bounce heavy volume coming in and again heavy volume coming in to the dump and then it paus so basically something was holding up

the market and it's putting in higher lows With higher Highs at the moment however it still hasn't broken out of this trading range so that's the difficulty right now there's no clear Direction I think that's what's happening in the market um people are unsure of which direction the Market's going and that's obviously represented in the charts so until you get a breakout or break down it's going to be more of the same more of the uncertainty until we get a clearer Direction and I don't think There's there's that long to go in it and even

if this does head up and the rest of the market goes down you're still got resistance levels above so I'm looking at 4.6 to 4.8% on the uh on the usdt dominance that could obviously lead to that you know final flush out if you want to call it that for for Bitcoin and cryptos what's your altcoin strategy right now like are you are you trading the alts are you like when would you Position in them just on a personal basis um I'm not playing them as much as I did last cycle I'm playing a lot

more like Bitcoin and eth and holding those positions so overall I'm not the the best person I would say to speak to especially when you're you know so focused on on the altcoins but I'm very heavily focused on the macro picture the longer term and in terms of where I would go with with alts I would look at It more so from a place of energy and that's different to others you know a lot of people want to buy the dip and it's hard to buy the dip because you're having to buy on a lot

of fear but then also watching it as it rounds a bottom you never know where that dip ends right so I just like to play it when there is energy in the market and it's going up and so just following that Trend because with alss if things get going well then you can get a pretty long Trend and That's to me what I found to be a better way to to look at the markets for the altcoins that is for Bitcoin I I think it's got the staying power so I'm happy to go in at

those lows I had this tweet that I actually drafted it's scheduled for today that Fus did um a video on basically about with altcoins instead of always trying to bottom time wait for the initial pump so that sign of strength versus the market then wait for to consolidate and how they react During that dip will give you a good indication as to whether it's likely going to continue so instead of trying to catch a knife essentially just wait wait for an uptrend on on all yeah it's essentially like aof schematic it's like a workof accumulation

you're waiting for that then you're looking for strength and weakness if they put in higher lows they're strong if they put in lower lows they're weak I mean we could always bring up xrp that's what xrp did for Years it finally had its pump and and you get well personally I was bagging on xrp forever but when you look at it in terms of returns it's only done the same thing that bitcoin's done so what's the difference you know did 500% I do 500% on bitcoin or you could do 500% in a few weeks on

xrp but the chances are far lower because of how quick you have to be watching that thing like every single day of your life for the chance of a four- we move you know and that's where The concept of risk adjusted Returns come in which is very common in the stock market but people don't really think about as much in crypto like your actual returns sure cool you made the same amount of money on xrp but that was a bad EV decision because you could have held Bitcoin which had a much better a much lower

risk profile and offered you the same return so I think with if you're going to play alts play altcoins that have significantly more upside than Bitcoin so the risk adjusted return is the same if not better than holding Bitcoin because if it's worse you shouldn't be in that altcoin it makes no sense exactly it sometimes all this stuff get falls on deaf ears but that's okay that's just part of the cycle and part of the game you know depends how long you get to be here you it for 4 weeks and you made 400% congratulations

take the wins get the hell out of here and go and live your life you know don't Waste your time I think the number one thing that that I want to say on alts I think this concept what kind of summarizes at all is just be ruthless and even I look in December I wasn't as ruthless as I should have been I was a little bit complacent yes I took a lot of profits and I I made money but I didn't take as much as I should have so I think if you can be ruthless

with your allcoin positioning so when they pump just take A lot of profits be just try and be a lot less emotional and be a bit more robotic um and don't even worry if they start coming down I always look at it like even if it comes down it's going up a lot hopefully you got in at the right point and just get out when you see significant weakness turns yeah exactly weakness or significant turns in the trend that break are you seeing that on ALS I'd be interested to get your opinion like are you

seeing that shift On alts right now like how are you i' seen it on a few and you know not to take up too much time um look I I think maybe one of these like that doesn't look the greatest when you got double top happen yeah dog with hat here and it's memes like memes are supposed to be doing 100x you know everyone's gone on and on and on about them but that might be part of the problem on top of that there might be a lot of them that have Seen their day they'll

still pump everyone always forgets that little piece they'll still pump but they might not pump as well as something else so just an example here look this is still early days it's January could still break down and still do very very well you got like a double top forming um still coming down on some volume at the moment hasn't found a base yet it could be the weakest example because memes are the worst performing sector right now Yeah they are well there you go yeah I'd love to see all yeah you just called it I'd

love to see salana or sui um because I think these are like Market leaders I'll have a look at those yet I'll definitely bring that out MOG everyone's been banging on about it this is sort of what people get really excited for it's like oh I got in on this dip and ride this and then they've rid it back down and really that's kind of a weak move 1800 to 36 and a little bit more so Doubled and it's come back down broken 50% levels which is pretty weak um so it's going to probably test

the next lows so I suspect there's there's further fruit to go um sui I actually yeah that was one that I exited out of not all but I'm risk-free here um just there's a few weak patterns on that like tops that then break back under previous old all-time highs it's not a great sign when that happens look at this one here that held on It and then kept going but this one closed underneath this is on a weekly chart too so relatively long time frame when it comes to crypto and it can you know it

can still push a bit higher like it just did in the last couple of weeks but I'm not really sort of holding and hoping for 493 to 530 and taking that risk I'm okay with just seeing the signal and just getting out so this is on the daily here it went above the all-time high came back Underneath and at the moment's put in a lower top and you know as we're filming this actually it's moving a little faster than than you would like so yeah anyway maybe it's coming back to test like 440 and take

off who knows but yeah that's what I'm seeing at the moment here Soul um also looking a little bit weak it's got room to move to the downside what am I on crypto let me let me get the other chart out here uh it's got Room to move here to 178 that's a 50% level of the weekly swing so high to low to project it off here so that's okay it could find some support around 175 178 but even further to the downside it could still go to 136 and still be um in the strong

half of the 50% and that's of the macro move here so this is the cycle low to the cycle top which is also an all-time high if it comes back to the 50% at around you know 130s it's still a balanced correction it's Just crypto swing pretty hard yeah I think the issue is if Soul goes to 130 anyone that's holding salana alts which are on an even higher beta to Soul essentially leverage bets they're going to go down more than Soul what's that 25% move they're going to go down 50 60% and there's going

to be a lot of fear um yeah you're right about a 20 25 26% move uh but that might be what it takes to really flush it out because we were looking at the fear and greed index for For BTC and we haven't really just according to the history you know it doesn't have to always work out exactly the same but when you see it happen time and time again the fear and greed really hasn't done enough to reset here so you can see we've spiked down the yellow is neutral you guys should all be

familiar with this chart you've got extreme fear in the red fear in Orange and then extreme greed and greed right and so every time We've seen in the past here uh when it spend some time time in extreme greed it always resets to at least um neutral but most often I think it was only one time where it only did neutral which is the yellow but every other time it resets into fear and once it hits fear it can generally stay there for a little while longer before it's ready to come back up so that's

the last time in this cycle it did it extreme GRE so looking for dark green into orange dark green orange and Red that was at the top of the dark green into orange dark green orange dark green orange dark green orange and red this time and that's pretty much the extent of the history on the fear and greed index so right now we've hit dark green but we haven't hit orange yet and I guess if you if you think that the top probabilistically isn't in for Bitcoin like you said earlier then that may be a

good opportunity to play that Last leg of the cycle if we go there soon yes it's I say yes but there's always you know an asterisk attached to it because it just because it hits orange doesn't mean it's the lowest price you can see here in May May 1st it hit 56 57 which is still a fantastic price but when you're living through the next two months and July hits 53 you think you're an idiot or you think the people who are talking about that as being a good Buying opportunity are idiots and you don't

trust it you either sell out or you just give up or you get really pissed off and just stop watching and then you see it again like wreck people into uh extreme fear at 49 just for a second but pretty much under 55 they were all I saw it was all good buying opportunities underneath 58 to $60,000 because when you look at the line at 60k there's really not that much time in it in that whole eight months underneath 60k in terms of a percentage of time it wasn't that much so the market kept getting

bought up between 50 and 60k higher low started to form and then you get this pump so if we see something like that happen you'll see some lows um people will get extremely fearful at them probably give up or hate you know just ridicule will come about and then we'll start to potentially form a base maybe in a v-shaped recovery from there Who knows this is kind of giving me 2021 Vibes where the market had that first run then never got everyone thought the bull market was over got really really bearish only to see SS

and Bitcoin Peak again later in the year do you think that's something that could happen this cycle I mean look again anything's a possibility I don't know if we're in the same sort of feel as the first half of that was really bad that was I remember That was terrible when Bitcoin went from like 60 back to 29 was it or 30 that was like yeah that really shook people big time because it happened so quick as well and then it just dragged on for another two months and then finally get this nice big higher

low form like you can see the volume come back it just pumped for several days straight you got one uh 1 two 3 four five six seven eight days before you got a swing in it which is a pretty strong sign and then it Started to move again so it was brutal every it was a fake out if you kind of cover up half of your screen I'm doing it with my hand now just myself if yeah if you covered up like that if you're looking at that you're like well the bull Market's over right

you're like it's like a bear trap we're cooked we're cooked it's it's yeah sell everything because that's a bear trap and then it only went so this is my markets are so hard to predict right Because you look at something like this objectively and you'd say that's that's a um a trap right uh not there I was getting a little bit caught up here I remember specifically on these days I saw coming down increasing volume as it started to push lower but then when this date happened I had to flip so I was bearish on

the 20th bullish on the 21st see I see a big reversal took out three tops higher volume in all Those days and then the next um like nail in the coffin for the Bulls was day inside day out but the next day was up next day up day next day in the Bears now in the coffin for the Bears oh now in the coffin for the Bears and um you know like another you know Target for the Bulls to hit they got another signal to say the Bulls are back but very early days because you're

getting these strong moves to the upside that's part of like one of the rules that Michael and I have Used this whole bull market is at three-day Rule and there at the low you basically had three days from a very significant low turned bam then you've got in this higher low and it's it started to move from that point took out into a double top you know see these other tops forming here and then it started to move even higher but that's you know that's ancient history people want to know like what's going on now

what's going to happen next and guess You know look for similar patterns look for similar times look look for similar sentiment resets and see whether we get a similar sort of outcome you know I think the lesson there is always being adaptive and being and as you said like there was a period of three days where you really had to be watching the market so like a lot of the time like we have high time frame biases like me and you probably both think the bull market has more room in it and that means There's

more money to be made but there is obviously short-term things which happen and this is where people sometimes get confused between short-term and long-term bias they might say oh you're flip-flopping on your on your bias which may still be long for the whole cycle but you can be bearish for a week or three days based on the price action and you can flip bullish again based on short-term bias and that might not Change your positioning you might not sell your entire portfolio but you might be a bit cautious on those you know during that period

you might hold more Stables you might head short that's another strategy depending on if you're in il liquid alts for example lot of TS I hold onchain so I need to head short as as a way to have you know easy short exposure to the market versus just dumping all my old coins you know um so there are all these sort of things you Can do to play the short term more aggressively aggressively or more conservatively without changing your your high time frame bias exactly like my high time frame bias would be a bit shakier

I mean I'd be a little bit more concerned if 78k breaks down um between that 74 and 78k so that's just basically these tops 74 and 78 is this current 50% level that's where I get a little bit more concerned now there's a couple of other things in There which go in a little bit more technical I'd be looking at like an overbalance in time and price which has been a big one for uh for Michael and I to call this particular run out of the low there was an overbalance in time and price there

in September which means more buyers more sellers to an upside even though the market thought it was still bearish um if I saw that from the top that's where I'd start to get concerned that maybe this has run its Course but that signal hasn't come up yet so there's a couple of things few others but you know we can cross those bridges if and when it when and if or if it ever gets to that point so pretty much no top signals yet there are some but they're still shortterm they haven't broken the macro yet

yeah and I guess I guess that's also the issue with old coins in a way by the time we've confirmed a top to the best of our abilities al already down 60 50 60% if not more yeah it's very possible that's why I think it's good to take some profits on the way up and worst case scenario which I've been it's happened to me multiple times break of 50% level so salana in the old in in the last cycle dropped past the 50% so the top was 260 um the low was 50 cents so you

know right through the middle was 130 bucks there it is I sold it broke down you can See the speed that happened once it broke that level look at that 130 bucks bam just dumped straight to 80 so I sold it around 130 I was so surprised of the ridicule I got for selling because everyone's sort of still holding and hoping um but at the end of the day you know it went to $8 that's what happens a 50% level is is a pretty big saving race I think and just so people can do it

on their own charts is that 50% from the Prior high or is it from the from the low how do you calculate that uh well for the the macro time frame you do it from the the cycle low yeah and then the cycle top so really simple there and you can see it came in at about you know 133 binance was slightly different some of the other charts were 260 but you get the idea yeah but I guess that's only applicable for alts that were around last cycle like for a for an AI 16z like

a new AI allcoin you can't really use This technique right well you you can but because maybe the cycle top hasn't come in yet they can still break 50% and then move higher but I from this point the cycle had already been running for so long like we know from from Bitcoin it ran into November the low was December 2018 so it already been going for what close to three years therefore it's probably more likely that you've experienced a top than just a local top so you take the Risk get out if it comes back

you'll see it in the swings and um you know you just have to buy it at a higher price but it's better than watching it run to8 could you maybe chart AI 16z the reason I'm asking for this one specifically is because it's kind of like the AI leader right now and obviously AI is a this sector yeah bance okx any I think Maxi might have more history um but it's like a yeah exactly like that's the reason why I mean some of the other listings were earlier if you want to use maybe a lesser

known exchange I think binance just listed um but the reason I'm asking is because it's uh it's like indicative of the AI run it's like a leader so I think looking at these kind of coins can give you an idea of like that well look it's so short term at the moment you barely you just hit one month of data but this looks like it might be an early accumulation of several days a pump a Complacency top you know if you if you throw on your wall Street cheat sheet that's like a clear complacency top

and if you go back and have a look what people were writing on X about it on the sixth and seventh and potentially even eighth probably would have been around complacency and then you get the dump from this point volume picked up keeps them out but Saving Grace at the moment is still above that level that level is like what 90 95 It can still break down from there and be strong later on are these are for me it's for me it's a DCA level like personally I've been slowly averaging in but I am aware

that it could break down and go further so I'm I'm open to it but as a leading ai% down like you'd expect these to do they could do 70 80% and then still come back and do you know 10x 20x with the coin like this would you wait and this is I guess alluding to the point I made before using F's video Would would you wait for a a a confirmed reversal and then get in on an uptrend so would you just wait or or is your strategy if you were buying this hypothetically to average

in on the way down I I'd probably look for a breakout like if I was watching this every day which I'm not then you can see here the higher low look at the swing so I've got my swing pro here low higher low higher low this one increased volume pushed the tops did close under but then the next Bar lower volume which means there are less people selling next Bar lower volume again but you're in between so you you know you hadn't broken highs you hadn't broken lows and then on this bar here there's your

breakout but then you risk um you know you're getting in here above the highs at around a dollar and the lows you put your stops somewhere around 70 cents to somewhere around 55 cents right underneath the Previous swing bottoms um so you could still get out maybe it comes in and stops you all out but at least you're in on the so you got to be watching this thing every single day to find out where those next swing TOS are getting formed in the market so that's what it takes yeah to actually get good short-term

entries on alts um see there's a difference between a high time frame thesis being correct and executing In the short term optimally obviously you're never going to get it exactly optimal but you're right it does it does take you actually looking at those day to-day like probably going on the 1 Hour 4 hour and and like monitoring something yeah you got some swing tops you can focus here on the 4 Hour I I wouldn't go down to the 1 hour I know lots of people do but it's just getting a bit too granular I think

the 4 Hour gives you enough my favorite time frame the 4 Hour Or the daily they're my two go-to one hour you just like yeah exactly you're just making life hard for yourself going on the one hour most people are going to have jobs and to do they're not going to be sitting there on a 1 hour chart it's crazy you should speak to Paradise in the Discord he's on the 15 minutes sometimes yeah SCS you know different different style you turn on at a certain hour get off at a certain hour and you Just

do what you can in the in the you know you're on for three or four hours 15 minute chart okay but yeah if you're trying to do this longterm on a 15-minute chart it's just it doesn't make sense that's generally how you want to enter a position as well go from weekly to daily to 4 hour to hour like just like work down and your entry is going to be on the lowest time frame and then your general Playbook is going to be on The higher I mean we got CPI on Wednesday then we have

Trump's Inauguration in a week and then FC the week after so it's going to be a crazy few weeks I think rates yeah interest rates so you know one other thing that I didn't bring up but it's more of a macro thing if they want to put it in energies you're seeing a lot of these start to really rip higher so like maybe inflation coming back look at oil Breaking through key levels you got heating oil breaking through key levels is is is running so hard as well if you look at the 10 year at

the bonds yeah most in response to interest rates um it's in response to the hot economic data we're getting which the market is particular do you know the chart um ticker uh I think it should just be 10 year one Z I don't I don't actually sorry I don't actually know the ticker Of of what you're referencing I would click the plus button and then try and search under the bond 10 yeah oh you just type in the name treasuries tenure treasuries us yeah us us 10 yeah exactly um that's been running obviously because higher

interest rates or less rate Cuts would mean a stronger US dollar right so that's why you see the the 10year price upwards similar to your usdt dominance this is like an inverse indicator so the 10e going up is bearish for risk assets and the tenure going down is bullish for risk assets because it indicates the strength of the dollar and you don't want a strong dollar um for risk assets basically it's the summary of what it means for people yeah but what we're seeing in the face of that are energies and commodities going up because

they're not necessarily risk assets but typically you see them it's an inverse correlation because the US dollar strong And they sort of price accordingly but you're seeing the US dollar strong and these Commodities going up as well because one's a bet on inflation and then On's are B on the interest rate response to inflation and both are good for the they're all going up yeah it's all going up at once which is which is the reason fundamentally and look as you said price follows news vice versa could be interpreted differently but fundamentally that is the

explanation For the dip or all or the fear right now in in the stock market it's all no inflation's coming back interest rates might actually maybe the FED won't be able to cut as much as they wanted to because the econom is actually not as weak as we thought so maybe they're actually going to hike so then everything just gets repriced in real time because they're looking two years ahead so now it's like oh we're not getting two we're not getting three rate Cuts we're not getting two we're getting one and maybe we're getting none

next year maybe they'll start raising so like there's all this put my forecasts like I'm saying that we're going to get interest rate increases because stuff's going to just start running away to the upside so they're going to if that's your thesis how how's Bitcoin going to cope in that environment because isn't that kind of contradictory to the ma to the to the Cycle Theory not exactly because the prices are going up so I think they'll keep going up and that's why they'll come back to try to prevent them from going up to cool things

off so maybe it's like like you said that the the environment is that they're watching all the prices run up or people are pricing two years and ahead two years ahead sorry saying well interest rates aren't going to be Getting cut as as we thought we to FP the other way and so they'll start to everything run up and then the things will still have to get um increased the interest rates will still have to get increased to try and curb how much they've started to inflate and how much it's started to go up as

well yeah it's it's it's honestly fascinating it's very hard to get an edge in that space because I've seen the best macro analysts in the world get it So wrong over the last couple of months so I've kind of learned to not read too much into it because everyone's wrong man like I I SAR totally when it comes to those together just that's why I just keep going back to the Chart I'm like well that trend is obviously up you can see a higher low form on top of in this case the the um the

200 day moving average and it's just pushed away higher again the charts tell you pretty much Everything without you needing to know everything but I think it's good to have a basic understanding of what's happening and what could happen but reading so far into it is going to be dangerous because this all changed in three weeks three weeks ago no one cared about this everyone was Trump in it's bullish now all of a sudden oh no inflation's an issue Jerome Pal's gonna ruin everything like now it's a big problem again and then in three weeks

There'll be another narrative Trump will come out and he'll say something about tariffs and that'll have the market excited or bearish so it's like it's constantly changing yep always and that's due to something that you pointed out actually on your Twitter of because people are anticipating the end of the cycle there's heightened volatility yep so they're reacting more than maybe they normally would because They're they're like okay this might be the last year or within the last two years depending on your range so for that reason we we're going to react a lot more to

this stuff maybe more so than we would at the beginning of a ball because the beginning of the B doesn't really matter but now it's like looking signal yeah it's not known that it's the bull is beginning that's the thing like in 2022 well 2020 was the start of the second Half of the real estate cycle sorry 2020 was the start of the second half of the real estate cycle we had the low right but just as a recent example 2022 2023 that was around the lows not as much money was in the markets now

we're seeing more money come into the markets there was quite a few different posts I put up there you know money managers and cash and all that sort of stuff has come in and so you get more fluctuation which is exactly what written there everyone's Trying to keep picking this top because they they're now exposed at the worst times things can keep going up but I just think it's going to get a bit more volatile And the emotions obviously come into the volatility now yeah 100% I think that's that's a good place to end it

thanks for coming agreed yeah thanks mate always happy to be here and chat more about the macros space as best we Can no it's a good it's a good counter B because I'm so focused on alts and you're and you're much more macro focused so it's always nice to um you know consider both sides of things I mean it's all it all goes hand in hand but it's it's nice to like have a different perspective and we actually have a similar perspective but just the the way that we execute is extremely different but I think

it's um yeah it just comes down to edge as I just said Like what's your Edge exactly much appreciated man see you in the next one peace