Welcome to Plan B on YouTube. So, Bitcoin had a V-shaped recovery after all. Bitcoin jumped from 82K end of March to 94K end of April.
And now, as we speak, it's at 104K. So, this V-shaped recovery is a bull market sign. And okay, we're still far off from the uh stock toflow 500k average for the 2024 2028 haling cycle.
It's an average, right? We're still far away from that, but we're only one year in only one year into the cycle and three years to go. Fundamentals are very good.
Bitcoin is two times as scarce as gold, but gold is 10 times uh more worth than Bitcoin. So, Bitcoin remains super undervalued in my opinion. So, many called the bare market when Bitcoin was 82K the end of March, but I remained bullish.
Why is that? Mainly because of this chart. the market cycle chart and I made it in 2022 after Bitcoin missed um the 100K in 2021 and I was late recognizing the bare market in 2022.
So this market cycle model is an onchain model. It's based on analysis of all the onchain transactions of Bitcoin. And there was no yellow, no distribution phase, end of the bull market phase and going to the bare market phase.
There was no yellow in March. There was a red bull. So I knew uh that although it's a very weird long flat bull market that the bull would continue and in my opinion from now on we'll see new all-time highs.
So that would be 110k and higher followed by more monthly close all-time highs. Usually those all-time highs they're not alone. They come in groups.
Now if we look at RSI the relative strength index currently it's at 66 and that's around the average uh RSI level of 65 the dark area here the black area and it has been around that that average for uh for more than more than a year now. In my opinion, how I read this chart is that Bitcoin spent a couple of years below that average of 65 and from now on it will stay one or more years above the 65 average. In fact, I think we will see 80 plus RSI months again.
um at least four of them just like in the bull markets in 2021, in 2020, 2017, and in 2013. So, I think we'll we'll see those high RSI numbers again at least four times. And those high high RSI numbers are uh associated, of course, with uh high monthly returns, monthly returns of over 40% per month.
So if we have from the current level of well on average 100k four months of 40% that would bring us already in the 400k area which is not inconsistent with the stock flow model moving averages the 200 week moving average is black line it's up from 46k end of March to 47k K end of April. And note the difference between the 200E moving average and the geometrical average that's the uh the gray line is increasing and that indicates a developing bull market. FOMO is building.
You can see and and you can see it in in previous bare markets too. If the 200E moving average and the geometric average have been close together and then diverge again, that's a bull market here too in 2017, same in 2013. And we talked about this last video.
Uh, and here here you can see it even better. It's a closeup of that of that same chart. We talked about the possibility of the 200week moving average and the geometrical uh moving average um staying close together and that would indicate uh steady growth and not so much uh 4ear cycle.
Maybe it would indicate the end of the four-ear cycle. But now with this increase uh and you can see it here it has been close together and it's it's diverging again. So I don't know for sure but in my opinion this is a bull market uh building.
So the last phase of the bull market, the forom more phases is about to happen and uh we might see a very nice 2025 after all. Realized prices realized cost prices uh if if you look at the overall realized price that's the black line including all the coins including 1 million Satoshi coins that that are um basically counted at zero. That's at 45K right now, up from 44.
The 2-year realized price is more of a medium-term uh indicator. I find it very useful. It's up from 75 to 77,000.
And the five month realized price, the short-term buyers is 92 right now. It's up from 91 last month. And Bitcoin, the red dot, is above them all.
So all the realized prices are going up again up up and the Bitcoin price is above all the realized prices. Well, that's that's how we want to see it. That that's also a sign of a bull market.
Uh so everybody's in profit. There's not much pain in the market. We'll see what that brings.
Now, if we combine them all, and I like this chart, it can be confusing, but it gives very nice situational awareness. Uh if we go from from low to high, we see this this moving average again 200 week moving average at 47. This can be seen as a bottom uh a floor in bare markets.
Uh because every time there was a bare market in uh 2015 in 2018, it bounced off that of that 200 week moving average and 200 the 2022 bare market was a bit extreme. So it dipped a little bit under uh uh below the the 200 week moving average but uh but still it's a very good indication of what the next bare market uh bottom could be. Now the next one the 2-year realized price um at 77K can be seen as a bull market floor.
So when Bitcoin drops below that gray line, then the bull market ends here too. When it drops below that gray line, the bull market ends and here too in 2014. So we're now above that gray line and um so the bull market continues in my opinion.
Now, Bitcoin here at uh 94K, end of April, and the color is green. Color is the uh the relative strength index. That's the chart we talked about earlier.
It's the color here. I use color for different variables, right? It can be months until the next halfing.
It can be the cycles like we saw in the other chart, the mark, the market cycle chart. Uh and now it's RSI. So RSI is 66.
Uh, but I expect at least four months of high 80 plus RSIs like all the past bull markets and it can be five or eight or six uh of those months but let's say uh conservatively it's four 80 plus RSI months that uh that would be uh that would bring us to uh Bitcoin to $400,000. Now then that's not far away from the uh stock toflow 500,000 average which can be seen as a target based on fundamentals scarcity fundamentals. All right, as always models are wrong, some are useful.
This is certainly not uh financial advice and please do your own research. See you next time.
