How to Navigate the 2025 Crypto Cycle | EllioTrades

how's it going Elio um it's been a long time coming and uh been meaning to do this collab since forever so really happy that we get to finally put this together and yeah excited to talk about everything markets related and we've been chatting about you know you tell them or or do I tell them this is a this is a new podcast it might only have one episode ever but it might have episodes forever it depends on how you guys like it so with that said let's talk about it what's what's up with Trump coin

yeah so I think elephant in room Trump meme coin we both um I mean we were just going crazy on Friday night trying to figure out if this was even real can they even hack the president's account and I still have a position and I think it's uh it's pretty cool like yesterday he actually officially confirmed it on an interview that he did launch it so this checked some marks for me personally um that he can actually mention surprised yesterday I was doubting cuz like it's never a 0% chance right I I was putting it

maybe 5% chance that it's fake and maybe he will never mention it because you know there's this like Rule people assess he can't benefit right but I was pretty surprised he he said he launched it and uh yeah it was funny yesterday there was that big collapse when he had this statement um but I think we should just start and walk through it from the beginning which is you know what is this thing and obviously a lot of people have talked about it but that first night was Mania uh I personally had been thinking obviously

through the whole campaign um era and we know that he had uh at one point he got assessed like a fee of like $300 or $400 million uh he was not raising as much money as as the comma team and it was very clear that like Financial upside and quick Financial upside was going to be something that would be hugely impactful for him and then we heard that he was raising money from crypto people and of course at this point like things like whiff like a dog with a hat right are just going to like

$4 billion and in my head I was like man Trump's the biggest meme there is why wouldn't he just drop a meme you know like that that was already my thought process since the campaign uh given all of his sort of Financial wos and and you know everything going on there obviously I'm not saying that he's in financial trouble but he was getting hit with a lot of from a lot of different directions between financing a campaign and the uh and the legal uh penalties so I was mentally prepared for a trump meme for over

a year now and I I just thought it was obvious and when they announced World Liberty fi I was kind of confused I was like do we really want the trumps like trying to build stuff as if they're you know hardcore Builders or do we want them to kind of do what they do best which is like absorb the attention flow and kind of just focus more on that side of the crypto uh angle and I was shocked when they did World Liberty F but I I still think world Liberty f is actually shaping up

to be something um at least worth following uh certainly it seems like there's they're taking it very seriously uh that that being said I was mentally and emotionally prepared for this I think a lot of people weren't I was I did not see this coming to be honest it was it was so last minute and so close and um even for him it's pretty ballsy to do this on a government official account he retweeted it again and uh yeah it was pretty nuts and I'm but on the other hand he's the president now so what's

everyone else going to say about us well he fired he fired and hired the only person who would actually pursue litigation against this right uh he is you know about to take the highest office in the land I just highly highly doubt that uh I don't know it doesn't feel to me as ballsy as it seems because um meme coins as much as they are these crazy vehicles that people call like oh these this is crime this is crime that's crime that's crime everyone makes this joke that Meme coins are crime well they're really not

obviously if you create a meme coin and then you rug it like that's a crime like you've done something you know you've you manipulated markets you've essentially um stolen from people but if you create a mcoin and it's successful uh there's no real laws that you're running a foul of like you're just not you're not creating a common Enterprise that people are contributing to with the expectation of efforts from others there's no Securities regulations like meme coins are kind of outside of that bubble because there's no actual activity of the company that's very interesting so

assuming this coin is going to live on for multiple years even past this first phase of his presidency this is going to set something in the future for how meme coins are treated because give it like four years at some point even when he leaves office assuming this hasn't rugged by then it has to have a classification which is going to be representing one of the largest mean coin and how mean coins will be perceived right now they might call them they might call him something else they might call him like attention assets or or

whatever because you're not actually expecting a business to generate revenue for you you're just not pretty cool actually maybe we can have me coins starting from this and setting a president for something that's not a security but also not like utility coin and probably I wouldn't call it commodity but what is this exactly maybe maybe it'll come up with something in this uh it's not a commodity dude I mean I don't think it's any I don't think it's any of those things right and I think that when people I think this is just the friction

of trying to match the new crypto assets with an archaic system that really doesn't match right oil is is a productive asset right and it's a it's an asset that you need to do other things with corn all of these things are Commodities right you use them in business in trade they they are the back stops of of Industries memecoins are just uh internet uh particles right and I think that people will gradually the way I always have seen crypto is a a saying that I think should come back here is it's the internet of

value and I think that really puts the the concept of Internet first which which is like the stuff on the internet is now getting value as opposed to like oh let's take these older classifications of assets and then like Crypt them I think that that's the wrong mentality I think it's like okay look at what goes on on the internet you have content you have culture you have industry you have software as a service you have you have all these things that happen including you know trading assets and now they're just getting this sort of

blockchain rail behind them and financialized I think that they will be a very difficult road if you try to call everything a security or commodity when it it's neither of those things a meme coin is neither a security or a commodity it's just it's just an attention asset that people can trade that's cool maybe this cycle we'll see something at least for this for Trump for Doge paye right the large ones to be together as something new that's actually pretty bullish for memes I I didn't think of it like this because there's not there's no

there's not enough like push there to have Dogecoin being recognized as something new as a asset class because I mean people are okay with it as long as it's it's not a security but with this like he has to it has to be officially something eventually and that that's actually yeah that's a pretty good move actually I I didn't think of it like this it's bullish for memes overall well Securities are defined by the um by the hoe test which is uh silly but it it also fails and most most cryptos fail the how we

test and so which is good you want to fail um and so the real question is just like what are they I think we'll find out um obviously Hester Pierce has kind of suggested that we're going to get this regulatory sandbox so okay crypto projects can launch and then they have two years to kind of achieve certain things or do certain things to tick certain boxes which I can see honestly that being kind of almost productized like oh do you need to pass your security regulation thing to get out of the sandbox like here we

we are actually a protocol that helps your protocol pass those you know oh because you need this type of governance you need this type of vote you need this quorum voters whatever whatever the random tests they set up for are um I think what they have to be really careful of is that they don't discourage building because what's the the real question here is what's best for the industry is it attention assets obviously those will bring people in you think that you can think of that as like the reality TVs of like crypto you know

the sort of um you know the junk food of crypto um but you need also a balanced diet or else the body doesn't survive and so the question is like where is the the substance and if defi all of a sudden to build something that's useful or you know to to the industry is now subject to insane regulation but you could just drop a meme coin um and Achieve an equal valuation maybe higher because you don't have all those regulatory overhead uh costs and stuff and timelines I I think that there's a danger that because

mem coins are really hard to regulate and they don't fall into these buckets and certainly there's not going to be any political will to create new regulations towards meme coins there's there's a danger that now all of a sudden stuff that does stuff gets put into a much harder bucket um to to achieve maybe that's a good thing like if you cut it if you slice it you're like okay well only serious teams can pretend to be serious or whatever can purport to be serious um I don't know it's just hard to see I think

there's a danger that now meme coins get sort of cart blanch and everything else uh has has a hard road if there is if there is that that that's something that I've been aware of I'm I've been thinking about the same as what so um I don't know if I talked about this on video before but it's like um for now we have this like easy moment because we are in this moment and it's not fully there yet we're seeing potential right H Pier SEC reform this like crypto task force we're going to have uh

clear regulation but still it's still regulation and what the SCC can control is just Securities and then they have the cftc for Commodities but doesn't mean everything is going to be a commodity right it's far from it and also we don't want everything to be a security and also this doesn't mean everything else is freely tradeable everywhere right that's not that's not what the SEC does so yeah I don't think anything I think we lose if anything becomes a security right because uh if all of a sudden part of this Market is Securities legally they

can't trade on the blockchain or on exchanges or on anywhere right all of a sudden now you need to have like a government ID behind every trade because that's how Securities are they have to be regulated in their in their trade to certain types of investors or whatever um that is a that's not going to work right it's it's incompatible with the tech right the tech doesn't allow that so if I create a token on chain and then it's on a de which of course it would automatically be so now all of a sudden all

these lws have been broken it's like that to me is we can't accept that as an industry we have to push for Tech compatible realistic stuff which is like okay this is not a security because it's on the blockchain and securities laws are fundamentally incompatible with blockchain um I think that that's just kind of way I see it but we will I don't know I I who knows we'll see what happens with that I think the more interesting question is less about like what's going to happen with The Regulators because right now The Regulators are

in a mentality of like let's be sensible right their whole thing is let's be sensible and so anyone can come out of the the corner a powerful crypto person and say that's not sensible and then that regulation now gets tabled again and now we get like back to the back to the huddle um but I do think that what's interesting here is that we've seen a change to the industry that started with Trump here um I think we should talk a little bit about like did this benefit the industry or not and I think that's

a lot of a lot of the debate right now is like is was this good or bad and I think like to from my perspective it was undeniably um massively positive um but it also did something where it revealed maybe to some people who had more um I guess personal Frameworks around what crypto should or would be in their head it kind of maybe it kind of maybe felt uncomfortable that it ripped the mask off of what crypto what crypto maybe is really yeah I see it like what Trump has done so far even surprised

me a bit cuz I I didn't expect this Meme and honestly um he dropped so much when he was not the president and he clearly understands crypto he he knows how to profit from crypto but I didn't expect so close to his presidency his admin to come in and still pushing more after he has already won right so he could have said a lot gotten the votes and just be done with it that's probably what Cala would have done but um I think this is good one of the things that I would say is uh

important here is he knows that and he views I think crypto as owing him you know and I think that he sees it as like I did so much for this industry they'd be nothing without me and I don't not while I don't think that that's true I think that crypto would always have continued and survived and thrived uh in its own way maybe not at this sort of unhinged level um I do think that he is right like we do have we do we do owe a debt to his boldness in standing up for

crypto he didn't like you said he could have said all these things most crypto people would have voted for him and then we're just here sort of Sitting Waiting begging for something to happen now all of a sudden we're just begging for crumbs whereas first day or first day and a half right Ross Brook freed uh Bitcoin strategic Reserve being talked about his team aping at you know tens of millions of dollars of uh of eth and Bitcoin it's it's it looks like he was being 100% serious and and I think that from that perspective

uh he knows hey look I feel like I did a lot for these guys it's time for them to do something back and um and I think this is an easy way for everyone to do that I mean obviously that's sort of to me I I I know that a lot of people were shocked that he did that he did this but to me I'm just totally not shocked I am shocked about Melania I think that that should have never happened and I think that that was I just don't understand why they did that at

all okay so what you said there is actually very like it's it's breaking down the psychology a bit so basically what you were saying is um giving people this Trump coin to kind of make be his legacy and that's the way we can that's cool that's that's a good way to think about it cuz there was no other way that we could have really contributed to whatever he is about other than the presidency but again like I said he's already voted in so why did he keep going and this makes sense actually um this is

something everyone can do and it will the way I see it how it's phrased right Trump and the mify of it the the more slogan part in his family name instead of um you know like the whole thing or even Maga right it's not Maga related at all it it seems to that um he wants it to extend beyond just this this uh term even um well well I will be clear I think you and I both share the agreement that once he starts vesting I trust him 100% to sell of course so like that's

the thing is I think it I think it becomes a different Dynamic once those 80% coins start unlocking um where he will feel like that's uh his just reward um for everything he's done for crypto and so do I think he's going to perfectly mm out the exit I think he'll probably do what he can but you know if there's if Supply doubles uh in the first few unlocks like I don't know like that's where I that's where I want to be like more or less out of the trade or or have hedged my bets

um before that but at the same time I think the question that we should get to now is was this good for crypto right was this good for crypto not from a regulatory standpoint not from a his standpoint but like for the industry what do you think uh this coin alone I I don't know I I think the the part that the what it means for meme coins maybe it's positive because uh this thing needs something to of a basket to put it in long term um I think he what he has done before definitely

is is positive for crypto and the potential reforms we'll see coming up um what he's doing like this is good for soul obviously a tested Soul like to the biggest extent possible that we'll ever see for decks and clearly it shows like however big of a launch like whatever it is IPO level way bigger than IPO level you can do it on chain on soul on Jupiter whatever on moonshot uh and it it can reach Global virality uh in 3 days that's pretty positive that's that's like a use case perspective for for defi even um

positive what else I mean there's a lot of things he has done like the Bitcoin ethereum side would love to talk about that in a bit but um yeah overall positive obviously I I think a lot of people are saying oh this undermines The credibility of the industry I think that people who have been you know at the Forefront of like and L1 protocol is trying to say okay this is Hardcore Tech this is the next this is the new NASDAQ they're they're struggling right because the most you know talked about most valuable quickest launch

has been a non-productive asset right but at the same time it's it's the tech of it right if we're talking about purely Tech now you can have anything launch on soul and tradeable across every single person with a wallet in the world and have that be done you know be be smooth over the first like like Trump was it was a good launch it was um anyone could have bought like within first hour and um I don't think you can do that on IPO level for like there's so much going on there and then also

a lot of friction there um yeah I think this is I was playing I was playing Devil's Advocate because I think it's I think quite bullish but I think a lot of people thought that it looks bad I think there's a lot of people who still are just very anti- mcoin right um I know you and I have been covering meme coin since 2023 uh so you and I are at least open-minded right I think is is the right term um I know you neither you or I focus on them particularly uh but I think

there was a lot of people who thought okay this is just a bad look uh I guess a little bit for the for the space you could say but um if it rugs obviously it's a back look but so far it's it's fine like melenia is kind of weird I got to I got to give him that um he shouldn't have done that I I feel like that's a something um I don't know like something must have happened after they launched Trump I I highly doubt that they plan to launch two coins yeah um for

these two yeah the thought process that I now that I've been chewing on it I think you you even said this like they couldn't do it once they got into office but but they couldn't do it while Gary gendler was in power either so if they launched it before Gary stepped away on Friday night then they would have gotten sued immediately but if they did it uh before but they had to do it before they got into office so they essentially had to get both tokens out there was a decision made I know that Melania

did nfts as well so I think that there's just a decision that has been made that like when Trump does crypto stuff that's sort of brand based Melania will do it too maybe she's pushing him behind the scenes you know we do we do things for our wies right um but at the same time that was why I think it happened so close together because it was obviously a really bad it was it was horrible timing this is why I think that fundamentally this is is is a bull case right which is a cycle as

people Define it I thought this was really well phrased is fundamentally people showing up because they missed something that's already too expensive and you saw that happen in 2021 where uh nfts you know went crazy where Dogecoin went crazy where Bitcoin went crazy all of these things traditionally Bitcoin is the thing that people miss and and they're like I'm not paying 50 grand for that I'm not paying whatever for that um and then they look for the next thing right and um and so I think that what Trump and its coin could represent here is

the first big Miss of the cycle that has now been globally coverag I I know that tons of normal people that that are in my normal life are talking about this coin um and I think they saw there was almost half a million or a million new wallets created uh through moonshot app uh so we saw hordes of people come on CH we saw a significant chunk of people come on chain just to trade this and what I thought was interesting was the price didn't really move once it got onto coinbase Robin Hood binance so

it showed that there actually is a significant population now on chain and they're not going to need to go to coinbase First they're going to uh they're going straight on chain with things like moonshot and and and other uh sort of consumer apps so I think I think all in all um when people look at like what makes crypto go up which is fundamentally what people want to see this is good for all of those things and at least for the next three months until they get coins I think there's a chance that it could

continue to go up and if it makes new highs here in the near future and continues to Rocket I think that the amount of people that come on chain for this will be um will be a lot right it'll be insane pretty bullish for Moa for sure um so looks like they have a deal with Robin Hood right uh I don't know oh yeah they have the Robin Hood like Robin Hood withdrawal is like an like a wh listed process or something and they said um you can transfer soul from Robin Hood to moonshop pretty

easily now like yesterday I think that they they had that my genuine question to you is what does this mean as far as where we are in the cycle man um what what does this move us forward or backward in Innings and I think that there's you could see it either way you could make a case for either I think that's that's so I think we are definitely like 2021 now so if we go buy the same yeah the same Playbook I think we're pretty close to like January February 2021 at least this is kind

of the first um major uh like disbelief move on Doge I see I was just looking at the Doge chart the other day um like when Doge went from what was it like 4 cents to 10 cents this is kind of what it felt like then uh and that was uh maybe 3 months out before the first big peak where everything was pure fomo so I think we're moving pretty fast cuz even last month before the new year it felt pretty there was still a disconnect like retail CT it felt like it still might not

happen for a while but now this is like suddenly um triggered by this a bit okay so when people say alt season I don't think anyone expects every altcoin to go up rampantly in fact we we don't care we only want our own bags to go up and if you're really a student of of this industry you're not picking bags that are totally irrelevant no one's talked about in years and years and years I think that there's like this weird Gap when people say oh we expect an ALT season I think people think that that

means you expect you know Bitcoin cash and like all these other things like yeah I think Bitcoin cash might have a fomo blowoff top if we get a super cycle whatever but we're talking about the core bags that everyone's like holding and everyone's talking about have Buzz have excitement have Community have have you know hungry teams uh the new interesting stuff or projects that that have that have become interesting again you know um and so that's where I think I do expect there to be some kind of big push and alls and and at least

the good ones right yeah I don't think it'll be like everything runs allog together equal percentages anymore for all season um kind of it was like that last it wasn't like that in 2021 either uh a lot of stuff got left left behind it it was certainly easier than this but it wasn't like 2017 at least 2017 was was like everything was up 50% whatever 2017 was like throw a dart right uh but in 2021 if you remember at the beginning at the end of 2020 first of all it like defi had run and then

there was like do Eco and like a bunch of random little pockets that were like wildly outperforming and then you got kind of like this really heavy Sledgehammer of liquidity but it went mostly into like salana uh some defi uh some L1 like there was L1 season um but there was tons of stuff from 2021 that didn't make it or from 2017 that didn't make a comeback um like Tron never even came close to its all-time highs you know and it was there was a ton of stuff that um that didn't make it right and

and was was obviously the wrong bags to hold um and then you got nft season and then you got gaming season and so there were these uh narrative Seasons but there wasn't um there wasn't like a broad-based alt season but people people called that alt season right and so when I say alt season that's what I mean it's like there will be an AI mega bubble there will be a rwa bubble maybe I'm not holding a lot of rwa but I'm looking to get some exposure here um there will be obviously I think there's going

to be a massive gaming season uh which will my my thought process on that is the wealth effect from the growth in uh majors and l1s will then start funneling into uh nfts and gaming kind of like it did later in the Bull Run um and then play to earn is going to go bananas again and so I think that that's going to be a very underrated part of the bull run but will print uh potentially some of the biggest gains of of the entire run I think it's going to be uh insane the gains

in in that part of the market that's I mean I've positioned my portfolio for that um and then obviously memes right I think that the the power law memes like the top 10 or so memes that are able to continually keep having parabolas are going to make it to some astronomical um values but it's not going to be it's not going to be every Meme and certainly like we've seen the bucket of memes worth holding continues to wither and dwindle um you know there's it seem like everything's going up and maybe we'll get another season

where everything seems to go up but I think especially with Trump it makes it even less likely for some of these other memes to be successful if that makes sense uh I don't know I think um The Narrative driven like narrative based Al coin Seasons I would say it has the first narrative has just clearly proved which is the AI agents I wouldn't even say memes before were really anything very easy mode for Market because it was there was way too many cabals and way too many memes but this AI thing for uh since the

agent since since gold um it has been easy mode if you were just shooting in the blank for two months and uh in that sense yeah there there has been a AI agents All Season clearly for two months yes yeah AI agents are like the defi summer right where like anything in defi summer was just going to go bananas you just had to get there early in the cycle and and early in the growth curve or the pool and then you'd make insane money and that was like the moment we had with AI agents where

like everything just went bananas yeah actually like what happens next I feel like everyone is I'm sure you're seeing this every Project's dming you being like Oh we have ai agents now you know it's like it's become quite overwhelming yeah it's just like when oh we we had a D5 Farm we're going to introduce our farm uh late 2020 yeah heavily commoditized now we just we just call that staking now yeah Y and there's no tag required anymore you just you just do it so so what do you think comes next I mean I think

we still get another wave of AI agent hype but then I think we get sort of a peak of inflated expectations and money starts to spill into a lot of other stuff um because my biggest problem with the AI agent thing is that AI agents fundamentally are not AI agents inside crypto are not the the tip of the Spear of the innovation in AI right you're not actually seeing that's not where the behavior is sort of uh natively being Innovative innovated on whereas defi did not exist out doesn't exist outside of crypto right so the

defi season like you couldn't just open AI wasn't working on defi like meta wasn't working on defi um whereas like you you heard about the Stargate uh you know thing yeah so apparently they're going to spend half a trillion dollars in the next four years with all of the the Avengers of of Equity Funds or or of of big banks are going to essentially spend infinite money to create the future of AGI in the United States I mean how does this to me like it kind of once again makes it very clear that the AGI

or the AI agencies in in crypto is just a trade I think it's much less about which narrative blew up because the the AI agent sector is so small even by total Market it's it's 10 billion like Sam Alman could have pumped this himself from zero to 10 billion it's and T tooken taken over the whole narrative it's much more it says a lot more about the timing of that there is bigger liquidity willing to make something happen now um and it coincided with something that sparked like AI agents if it was something else this

narrative uh in in this timing that came up it probably would have been equally as successful as long as you know there there enough funds behind it um so yeah I don't think it's it's AI agents specifically AI is a lot bigger there's a lot more money in AI um yeah but I don't think AI agents plus crypto is the Holy Girl n i do I do think AI agents solve the usability and ux issues and that's what I've been saying since the beginning which is these sort of um mimetic AI are just to me

just Another We're I will say I disagree with you a little on that there wasn't a memec coin cycle in 2024 I I do think there was and I also do think that um memecoins as as an industry have certainly found product Market fit right and I think that there's uh something to be said there um however AI agents to me are just meme coins like that's to me is the biggest problem is that they are being pitched as utility coins coins but really they're just meme coins that satisfy the bell curve better and and

that's where I see it yeah that's really well it's AI agent coins so many of them right now are just meme coins that take their mascot and slap the L on top of it to reply to people on Twitter that that's it so um it's it's smart memes yeah and they're so annoying uh whereas and that's why like to me I'm like okay well if you boil it down they're really just meme coins with a new with a new twist um and a new genre of mem coins uh the real Innovation triggers for AI uh

are not happening inside crypto so like when you get to like where like the interesting actual scalable future stuff is I think dpin is still kind of like very interesting um because it makes total sense and it's found a uh supply side uh product Market fit where they just need to find demand side now um and I just think there's a lot of exciting things happening with AI but the agentic side of it is is still mostly where it gets really interesting to me is when do I get my personal co-pilot where I can just

literally verbally say oh my God I need to get out of like oh I need to get out of this coin oh my God what happened with Trump and they're like oh this is what happened with Trump and like oh I need you to hedge that position like you know what I mean instead of me having to go and kind of find stuff and do it like that would be so amazing if I just had an agent that was constantly monitoring my portfolio and helping me make great decisions and then completely abstracting away the usability

issues like I don't need to touch anything I don't need to go to this aggregator or that Dex or whatever like that's not a decision decision that I should be even thinking about you know that that to me is is the real value yeah I watched your video on and how you use grock that has been a big unlock for me just searching on Twitter yeah Gro is so smart uh for crypto Twitter specifically because there's so much info that's not public on Google but is on Twitter somehow it doesn't index but Gro is able

to find it it's it's pretty cool if well I don't think they're allowed to index it I think like elon's been very smart about um where he allows the information to go because he knows that if you have essentially the largest real-time human-based information funnels you'll end up having the best information like on in the long run U because if you know like anytime anything happens it ends up on Twitter within like two seconds whenever I feel like an earthquake and I think like was that an earthquake in LA I search earthquake LA on Twitter

because that's where you'll know first like it's kind of crazy um that information that you find on Twitter but um but anyway I wanted to close out here with um a few more questions which is just where do you think we are in the cycle and you know with everything considered and what do you think is like do you think we see some short-term like explosive price action do you think like February is going to be February 2021 um and if it is does that make you want to kind of like exit your portfolio in

large part um in q1 or Q2 so I think between um q1 Q2 April May is usually that's that's a really good time um that's what I'm hoping to do again uh maybe by the time it comes I'm going to think just like April 2021 I think this is going to valala right away uh but yeah I assume if we get anything really explosive I think the summer months usually it will cool down um if we get a Bitcoin strategic Reserve then what oh man whole Bitcoin so I I wouldn't exit uh all my crypto

Holdings throughout this year at least keeping Bitcoin ethereum salana that's that's kind of good middle ground I think because even if you get a draw down like you're not going to have too much risk uh assuming you already have a bag like you just think oh like Fast Forward we're in May 2021 you know if Bitcoin ye so can double uh but then it draws down another 30% like you just pretend that you you fast forward it four months into the future and you you'll be okay um but if you're I wouldn't buy more at

that point and then yeah so my whole thing is I when you think about what creates these cyclical crushing bar markets fundamentally obviously when things go way up like that they have to come down a bit but I do think that there's also an element of you only get these massive like the world is over type bare markets when people really stop believing in the asset class and you saw that that took place each and every time I think in 2013 people were like well no one even expected it to be worth more than a

few jars of mayonnaise and now it's at a thousand bucks 2017 everyone was like okay anyone who knew this was like yeah this was a bunch of vapor cycle craziness um tether there was all these overhanging doubts of like what's real what's not um and then you got like some enforcement actions there in 2018 from the SEC and people were like oh okay part's over you know this is done this is never going to happen again um and then we got 2021 and it was capped off with Luna and FTX and so I think like

that at each point there was a reason to say well this is never going to happen this is it this is not this is done there's no way this is happening again and if we get a BSR I just don't think that that you'll have that same mentality it'll shift and that could be the ultimate pain trade is that there is a shift from a four fouryear cycle to a long-term um accumulation asset uh and that could cause a tremendous amount of people selling dumping everything than buying higher again um because the buyers of Bitcoin

right now are not buying for a three-month trade and that's where I think that you need to kind of like obviously there's always been a hardcore buyer base for Bitcoin that are that are long-term but the bull market buyers are there to buy and sell and so what happens when the vast majority of buyers start allocating based on the fact that this is a long-term strategic asset for the government I just that is a fundamentally a c change and I don't think that people can um can apply their models to it so if we get

a Bitcoin strategic Reserve let me put caveats on this that where they're actively buying Bitcoin right not where they're just keeping Bitcoin that they've seen which to me is cute but not bullish it's nice but it's not bullish per se if they if they are actively buying Bitcoin as a hedge against uncertainty or as a strategic advantage in the world to me that shifts the the Paradigm and I think this concept of like yeah I'm going to try to dump it all by Q2 I think that that's going to cause a lot of pain and

and certainly at most I'd look to exit like 30 to 40% or so maybe 50% of of my more cheap hot alts in in Q2 um but i' definitely be looking like you said to be moving those into Bitcoin as as opposed to Stables uh and sort of continuing to ride this uh this Paradigm of uh this new asset class which I I just can't imagine if we get a Bitcoin strategic Reserve that most people have the right model for that so I I'm curious are you a very long-term Bitcoin hler like let's say 10

year out do you do you have like um what's your for sure yeah for sure I'm kind of in that camp as well I think um like I I've been at least Bitcoin pilled as much uh as most people um I think uh before it was purely like looking at like before this ETF and this BSR stuff it was a lot more I don't know theoretical you know what it could be now it's much more like math-based like it just takes time but I just don't see how Bitcoin doesn't get to a million eventually and

it's not like oh it I'm going to pass it to to my children grandchildren and they can see a million like I will see it quite soon um while I'm still young so uh yeah correct I I think um and then and then you have to ask the question if it gets to a million why wouldn't it get to 10 million like there there there becomes the real question which is like why would it stop there and you could say oh gold but you could then start making the case that gold doesn't really do the

job that it says it does on the tin you know um it kind of people use it as like yeah I have that life vest under my seat you know um that's how they use gold you know the the the financial entities but they don't actively be like no their whole strategies around gold like nobody has a real strategy that's meaningful around gold um so I think that like gold is kind of like Target one and then then once you hit Target one you move to the the other targets which is like okay how many

people are just putting money passively in real estate how many people are putting money passively into these other assets that because they're scarce right uh when in fact they require you know all kinds of overhead that are that is not present with Bitcoin um and so I think that like there are the the actual mathematical targets for Bitcoin keep extending higher and just to be clear I plan to hold Bitcoin and accumulate for probably the the rest of my life until something changes I I totally agree I think um I was looking at your Tweet

earlier just this uh like I can't believe Larry Fink is actually on the same math um but you you're the one who's the first person I said I literally this is your framework like I did this math right I was like okay um people say Bitcoin should match the portfolio allocation of gold and then if like this is all out there you have the total wealth you have gold market cap total amount of gold in the world it's like 5% average wealth funds Bitcoin is at 0.5 and if we get to 3% of total wealth

Bitcoin is at a million it's actually a very round number um because like even taking into account like 10year time frame growth of total wealth it's it's cool here he says 700k and 2% so he knows the exact same number which is 700 trillion total wealth in the world 2% uh gives you 700k in Bitcoin he's thinking in the exact same model and this is just the the cashup trade to Gold um but I think you're right so uh at first there's a theoretical of what Bitcoin could be and then you have kind of the

proving stage of adopting Bitcoin but then those real technological effects actually come in because there's so much that on that code allows uh to be done on bitcoin that gold can never do that nobody even thought of before like you can't bring gold to Mars like by the time we're at we're on Mars there's going to be so much more gold on the way and but you can make this Intergalactic if we really want this could really be like I don't know the next 10,000 year asset I I I couldn't agree more and I think

that you know once I think the biggest question is if it gets to a million dollars and people have now allocated 5% why would people then stop at 5% it's like that's such a a tow Di number right of of an allocation 2% to your portfolio like anyone's losing sleep over 2% if it if you're best performing most sturdy most like and and you have to take into account how it how much your eyes open to the way the world Works once you once you sort of Step into the Bitcoin world and that's why Bitcoin

is the the reason why I've always been more bullish on bitcoin not just because of all these like ma the math and the this and the that it's because of the way it makes you see the world and you see the world differently once you understand Bitcoin and and um and that's very very addictive and it's very very there's a culture behind it and there's like a personal development cycle that happens with it uh and I don't think that there is I think I'm in this Michael sailor Camp which is like there's really no top

on bitcoin right and so um and I think that any altcoin that finds product Market fit and builds a niche that makes sense will also have no top on it because you're dealing with US dollar which have no bottom and so I think that like you know uh I'm I think that like as Bitcoin reaches these things and becomes completely legitimized you will also see things like salana um uh I believe that gaming will become the massive consumer app layer I believe that you'll see a lot of different segments start to show extreme staying power

um and maybe you shouldn't treat them like Bitcoin but I think you should uh I think they will also uh earn earn a permanent allocation uh in in the larger investor portfolio so yeah I I I I'm definitely going to keep adding to my stacks uh as much as I can each I think there'll be continually different Cycles but you know I kind of hope there's a cycle right because then you could buy low again but I think that there's too many people this time that would want to do that like I think I think

now in the fifth cycle like you want now a fifth time to buy at extreme lows I don't know I don't know if we're g to get that I think it's a lot smarter to just be at least holding like for me it's 50 50% Bitcoin 50% cash if we get to kind of the bottom case like um there's no way to believe in Al coins for some reason um I think that's still a lot smarter than like I understand crypto I understand this space much more than than others and I understand why it's way

more reflexive to the uh the bottom non-existing hole of of dollars so it just makes sense all right man this this was a banger this was our first episode uh what do you guys think what what should we call this should we should we make this a weekly episode one audience chat tell us if we should make this a weekly episode and two what should we call it uh if you guys have any name suggestions that are that are really good we might use them uh any final words Dennis I think we should keep doing

this and I think we should bring on some guests and there's I I really like this dynamic as well like um the way you um I listen to your stuff and then uh a lot of times like your con how you connect ideas and how people can perceive things like the the Trump idea with his coin and when you just confirm what I thought what you were saying that's actually very cool and I I think that um I can get a lot of value from it and having these conversations hopefully other people can as well

yeah awesome and I agree I agree I think that you know obviously I reached out to you early I think you're a great content creator and so let's keep let's keep the train moving man appreciate you guys thank you guys for watching episode one we'll be back soon cheers all right