Look at this chart. Gold is going straight up. And not in a healthy, normal markets doing market things kind of way, but in a someone chugged a four loco and listen to a David Gogggins podcast at 3:00 a.
m. kind of way. Because here's the thing.
Over the last 40 years, gold has averaged about a 6 12% annual return. Cute, respectable, a slow and steady asset class. But over the last 5 years, well, gold has been averaging nearly 20% per year.
So clearly there's something happening that should not be happening in a normal functioning world, which means one of two things. Either A, we're not living in a normal functioning world, or B, I am dramatically underestimating the emotional connection humans have with shiny rocks. Either way, gold is probably hitting another all-time high as I record this video.
But don't worry, it gets even weirder. And that's because nobody can actually agree on why this is happening. Not a trader, not an economist, not an analyst, and not even that one guy on Reddit who spends eight hours a day ranting about how the future is precious metals and canned beans.
Because it seems like everyone has a theory, but nobody has an answer. But before I keep going, this is a perfect moment to say this video is sponsored by Notion. And I don't mean that in a they paid me to awkwardly interrupt my video kind of way.
I mean, this video was actually built inside Notion because normally when I'm doing research for my videos, I have macro reports, spreadsheets, and enough tabs open to make my laptop sound like it's preparing for liftoff. But that's where Notion Agent comes in. Because now, instead of doing all the heavy lifting myself, I have the Notion agent to help me.
Here you can see I've asked the Notion agent to provide a 2026 outlook on the gold industry and a table showing the total gold held by various central banks. And with one click, the notion agent gets to work and handles everything for you. And the best part, if I want to add more data, like the gold holdings as a percentage of total reserves, the notion agent allows you to dynamically update as you go.
So instead of juggling research together from five different places, everything now is able to live in one clean, easy to use Notion workspace. This has helped me streamline my workflow from start to finish. And the tasks that used to take all day can now be completed with a couple clicks.
I'll leave a link below if you want to check it out. And now back to the shiny rock that's making everyone uncomfortable. Because there is one thing that's clear with gold right now, and it's that something big is happening underneath the surface.
Because what's supposed to be a boring asset class is now putting up Wilt Chamberlain numbers. And today, we're going to figure out what that something actually is. So, let's start with debunking the explanation everyone thinks is the obvious, inflation.
And okay, sure, inflation sucks because rent went up, groceries went up, even fast food prices went up so much you'd think Ronald McDonald was hired by a private equity firm. But here's the thing, gold isn't rising because of inflation. At least not in the way most people think.
Because if it was just strictly reacting to inflation pressures, gold would have exploded back in 2021 when the CPI was doing its best impression of a memecoin after an Elon tweet. And it didn't. In fact, it barely moved.
Because only recently has gold started to gain momentum. So yes, inflation is a part of the story, but it alone isn't the answer to what's happening, which means something else is happening underneath the surface. And that something is a lot scarier.
It's that foreign countries are quietly losing faith in the US dollar. And when I say quietly, I mean the same way someone quietly deletes all their couple photos on Instagram before announcing a breakup because the signs were always there. People just pretended not to see them.
[music] Because for 80 years, the US dollar has been the global reserve currency, which means it's the currency that central banks will hold in large quantities in their reserves to facilitate international trade and reduce exchange rate risk. But recently, central banks across the globe are showing signs of change. But they aren't just dumping the dollar.
That would be too obvious and too likely to trigger a global panic attack. What the central banks are actually doing is far sneakier. They're calling it diversifying away from the dollar.
Not dumping, diversifying slowly and strategically, like they're trying to tiptoe out of a room without waking the sleeping dragon. Because 20 years ago, central banks held over 70% of their foreign exchange reserves in the US dollar. But today, well, the share is down to 58%.
That's a 12point drop, which may not sound like much, but when we're talking about central banks across the globe, well, that's trillions of dollars. It's basically central banks saying, "We [music] still like you, but we're also exploring our other options. " And those other options aren't the euro, they aren't the yen, and they aren't the pound.
It's gold. Gold is the side piece, the monetary prenup, the just in case things go south safety plan. And central banks are piling into it at a record- setting pace because for the third year in a row, central banks have bought over 1,000 tons of gold per year, which is more than double their previous decade average of 400 to 500 tons annually.
In fact, 2024 actually marks the highest gold buying year in history. And this buying power [music] isn't showing signs of slowing because over 40% of central banks have said they plan to buy even more gold over the next decade. While 95% of central [music] banks expect gold holdings to continue rising over the next 12 months, it's safe to say this isn't a fad.
This is institutional anxiety. It's central banks across the world starting to get nervous about US debt levels, long-term inflation risks, and being overreiant on the US financial system. And gold, well, it's the asset they can move into when their trust is fading, but they don't want to start a fight.
But don't get me wrong, the US dollar isn't going anywhere overnight. It's still deeprooted into the global financial system. The whole dollar is collapsing narrative you see on social media is usually just written by some guy holding 73 ounces of silver living in his mom's basement because the dollar is still the dominant currency globally.
However, we are seeing central banks shift from blind faith in the dollar to conditional trust and that raises alarm bells because gold doesn't rise when people are optimistic. In fact, when trust is high, gold is boring. When markets feel stable, gold goes nowhere.
And when institutions feel safe, gold gets ignored. It's only when stability starts to slip that gold wakes up. And that's why this move matters and why I'm making this video.
Because what we're seeing right now isn't panic buying. It's preemptive positioning. And central banks aren't reacting to a crisis that's already unfolded.
They're hedging a future they don't fully trust. But here's the part that makes it confusing. The stock market is near all-time highs.
Risk on assets are partying like it's 2 a. m. in Miami, and AI stocks are being valued like they've already replaced half the workforce.
But at the same time, gold is also at all-time highs. And this isn't normal. Historically, markets pick a lane.
Either risk on assets like stocks and real estate are soaring [music] because confidence is high, or riskoff assets like gold are rallying because fear is rising. Not both happening at the same time. We're seeing a world where stocks are priced for optimistic growth, gold is priced for a troubling future, and bonds are priced for confusion.
Every asset class seems to be sending a different signal. And this dissonance across markets creates an environment where two people can look at the exact same data and come to completely different conclusions. We're seeing more mixed signals than that girl who says, "I'm not looking for anything serious.
" And then asks what your love language is. So, leave your take on what's happening in the comments because that's where things tend to get interesting. And there's one thing for certain.
Markets don't behave like this when the future is clear. And that's why this gold move matters. Not because gold is shiny, not because it's hitting all-time highs every week, but because of who is buying it and why.
Because the biggest players in the global financial system are quietly repositioning and nobody is talking about it. And that's something worth keeping an eye on.
