[Music] [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Music] warning this video in all other videos on this channel for entertainment purposes only the content of this video and all other videos on this channel are the opionions of the Creator only and do not constitute legal trading investment or financial advice of any kind investing car a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money do not invest in capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all all right hello and welcome to camel Finance I'm your boy camel and things are heating
up in the Bitcoin space right things are heating up the setup the backdrop is phenomenal so I'm going to talk about that today I'm going to talk about this whole idea of distribution versus reaccumulation I also wanted to briefly touch on altcoins because if I'm going to be invalidated on my ideas about altcoins then we should start to see that play out in the not too distant future so I was going to talk about that briefly and spend a little bit of time talking about gold as well so look first of all we tagged 80k
and as of the time of recording we're now blasting through $81,300 so that's pretty wild right and unfortunately for most this is a lockout rally to which most people seem to be underexposed okay and so this is going to keep happening I'm going to show you the mechanism for this and why this is going to keep happening and I'm also going to show you that whilst everyone seems to want a dip to buy okay I I don't think you're going to get a dip anytime soon okay which sounds kind of crazy I know but there's
a reason for that people are underexposed they don't have enough Bitcoin they didn't believe Bitcoin could break out okay they just don't have the positions they need and so pain trade right now is to keep locking people out is to keep moving Bitcoin higher people are also doubting this breakout to all-time highs Is For Real okay we spent so much time seven plus months consolidating around the prior alltime high now we've broken out and people are going no I don't believe it it's a trap right which is which is crazy but that's exactly what you
want to see if you're a bull right if you're in position if you're a bull on bitcoin okay then this is perfect you don't want people to be believing this thing is for real you want people to keep doubting it the whole way people are also begging for dips and begging and praying and hoping they can get in lower down because indeed they are underexposed okay they didn't believe in this move they didn't get in position right and now they're just hoping and praying that a Dip's going to show up so that they can get
in a bit lower down they are also psychologically unable to buy here okay and what I mean by this is most people thought that it was going lower here they didn't get positioned at this low even if they did they got shaken out on this little half cycle low and since then needless to say Bitcoin just keeps blasting higher now think about it like this if you were psychologically unable to buy here okay then you're definitely going to be psychologically unable to buy here right if you were like no I'm not buying that are you
now going to fomo in at 82k probably not right so this is what I mean by people are psychologically unable to buy at these levels okay they just can't justify it in their mind I can't possibly pay 82k now right the move must be nearly over but all this does is create an immense pressure buildup right it creates a massive wall of fomo which is eventually going to cause these people that are sidelined to say eff it just get me in I don't care what the price is I've got to start chasing this higher because
it's not stopping it's not slowing down and it's not giving me the pullback that I've been hoping and praying and begging I'm going to get and all of this is occurring against the backdrop where all I see is a bunch of people convinced 85k is the top because of this 5.3 rule right which is intellectually Dishon and the entire space is frankly embarrassing because the entire Market was too lazy to check that guy's calculations right I did it and they're bogus they are completely fake they're completely made up okay they don't work and yet so
many of the market participants think that 85k is the top because of the 5.3 rule okay just doesn't make sense anyway the reality is okay we snapped from 68k to 82k in about one week okay and now we're about 10% we're about a 10% move from 90k okay Bitcoin could do that in one or two candles no problem at all and yet all we have is people going no way it goes higher than this number no way it goes higher than that that number okay but like I said we we just hit 80k in four
candles so this thing is probably just getting started and you definitely don't want to be waiting seven months through this base only to sell in the first week that we get a popup and the absolute harsh reality is this is going to continue okay this squeezing higher this no dip no pullback lockout rally is going to continue until people move from disbelief into hope only once they believe this rally is for Real can they start to get fully exposed and chase this move higher only once they have eventually said f it get me in I
don't care about what the price is I'm too underexposed this rally must be for real even though I was doubting it the whole way only then when everyone starts to chase this Market higher will we actually get the first proper and true pullback and shake out all the while all of these conditions exist okay then expect this lockout rally to continue so is an absolutely beautiful setup right we had this huge move off the lows we digested it for seven months and now we're breaking out and people want to sell here right I mean just
zoom out a little bit that wouldn't even look right at least not to my eyeball think about what these people are saying they're saying yep we moved up Consolidated and boom that's the top and off we go okay that's the end that's the entire Bull Run that okay it just doesn't even look right so I think it's more likely that we spent all this time in Here and Now what we're getting ready for is something like this okay that would fit that would look much better and the hardest part of all is going to be
staying on this trend okay not letting it throw you off and not letting it convince you that you know that must be the top because you know look at this big green candle right Bitcoin can do these huge pumps and like I often say Bitcoin does Bitcoin things which means it convinces people it's never going to do it and then it just does it and leaves a bunch of people wondering how could it possibly have done that right but that's exactly what it does that's why we're here in the first place I'm seeing a lot
of people talking about maybe this move is a trap maybe this is distribution right but I think those Market participants are wrong for a number of reasons first of all OB crypto has proposed this a long time ago he's been following it in real time and he nailed it we got this big reaccumulation and now we've broken out and now we're trading at like 82k so Happy Days take this one off I think this is what's in play now there is always a chance that instead of that what we've got is distribution this current move
up to 82k could easily be this part okay utad and then off we go down into markdown campaign that is entirely possible because it's Market I don't think it's very likely but that is entirely possible but when I said the market keeps getting this wrong if this is indeed up thrust and what comes next is a markdown campaign then notice how people aren't really calling for that what they're calling for is this to be a trap a move down and then once we get here a ripped to all-time highs right there's no reason to think
that if this really is distribution if this really is a trap then that's the top and we're going into a bare Market but like I said all I really see is people saying no I'm not buying that this is a crap and what comes next is a perfect Sweet Spot entry for me to buy at 49k before then we get to reverse and uh go up to 150 plus K and I just don't think that makes sense from a cycle perspective as well okay let's also talk about this fouryear cycle low in around November of
2022 we expect another one in November of 2026 right somewhere around that neighborhood and thus we are right in the middle of the fouryear cycle this current month is the halfway point so the whole idea of a left translated cycle top is likely invalidated now we're probably not going to get a left translated cycle top unless of course we are doing that distribution we're about to crash and we're never coming back but another reason why I think this whole idea that this is a trap we're going to go to 49k and then moon is because
that is predicated on this whole corrective wave being an expanded flat a b and then C right now if that's true this leg has to kind of match with this leg in terms of time and if we spend another seven months doing something like that okay if we do something like this let's be generous okay from here just in terms of time and it comes all the way down to whatever the number is okay that means we're not going to find a low until about March or April and then from there we've only got a
few months before an ultra right translated cycle top would occur so from a cycle perspective this doesn't even make sense there's just not enough time to have this big corrective move down to 49k and then see a rip to all-time highs in October okay the top in October that would also look very very strange from a 4year cycle perspective it would have me and Bob calling tops okay we get back below this alltime high now okay and we've got major technical damage this would indeed be up thrust and like I said the thing people are
getting wrong is they think up thrust occurs and then a huge rip to new alltime highs okay that's not how distribution works if this is distribution if this is a trap then that's it that's the top we could say maybe it was left translated maybe it was mid translated okay really depends where the fouryear cycle low forms okay but like I said this scenario of distribution new lows and then new all-time highs doesn't make any sense from a cycle perspective at all it basically seems impossible it seems like there's only really two scenarios left on
the table now one is that was the top and down we go and that's it all the way to the fouryear cycle low no more ball Market no more all-time highs until after 2026 or the other one which I think is what is in play here is we've done this huge move Consolidated it and now we're moving into price Discovery okay and it's going to go way way way higher than anyone thinks and that's simply because people are underexposed to the move okay they don't believe in it they're begging for dips when just getting locked
out they can't buy Here psychologically because like I said earlier oh I'm not buying that at 49k well if you weren't buying at 49 you're definitely not buying at 82 right if you weren't buying at 70 and then 72 and then 75 and then you're going to buy 82 where are you going to buy you're going to buy 85 you're going to buy 90 95 you see what I mean right they they're locked out now this is this is what is going on and very quickly as well you know right now people are happy not
to buy 85 or 82 or 90 because they really think that that's the top they think it's not going way way way higher than that but what do you think is going to happen when they realize they're flat wrong about this okay and all of this is predicated on a 5.3 rule where the guy lied about the data so absolutely beautiful beautiful backdrop huge monstrous bullish setup under the hood for people that are in position if you're not in position then I understand this is probably absolutely horrible and horrific to sit through and if you
think about it okay this still kind of makes sense and still more or less fits the base case hypothesis of the channel yes I thought that we weren't going to spend 7 months in here I thought what we were going to do is spend significantly less than seven months something like this at the most and then go up to form a left translated cycle top that's what I thought okay clearly we never got that breakout okay until just now but ultimately look how it doesn't change much in terms of the implications if this is in
play and I believe it is I don't believe the macro backdrop is supportive of letting this thing run into October 2025 I just don't believe that personally happy to be wrong about that but if this continues to squeeze in a near vertical manner like I expect it to then is going to top way sooner than October it's probably going to top sometime between I don't know January and March right and yes technically speaking if it does that would be a right translated cycle but whilst I would have been out by a few months in terms
of the month number one if we can sell somewhere up here then we would still get to nail the top and number two and this is the most important part the implications of an earlier than expected top are that there is more time left in the fouryear cycle than we are used to seeing and thus we would still have to spend closer to 24 months in a bare Market than the normal 12 that we are used to seeing for Bitcoin so although I'm out by a few months okay although I was calling for left translation
and that is now clearly invalidated well unless unless this is in play but I don't think it is overall okay the camel crew have been expecting a lockout rally they have been expecting a much earlier than expected top the macro backdrop I think fits this okay because we've got the stock market moving into third and final parabolic blowoff top angles okay let's zoom out and see this yeah one two now in that third going near vertical so if this thing has got a couple of months left in it at the most maybe takes us to
I don't know December January then we see something break okay then what will this look like this will look like this okay and then a break down and then it can start to do its distribution and break down again and in here there'll be just enough time my mouse is wait let me go again in here okay there'll be just enough time for Bitcoin to finish completing that blowoff top move okay so for me this all makes a lot of sense yes it's not going to be left translated yes I was out by a few
months and that's fine but remember it's not about being right or wrong right it's about staying on the right side of the trade which currently we absolutely are we've just printed an 82k Candle by the way in the time of recording 821 now so again this is going to continue until people capitulate until people realize where we are in the cycle and until people say Okay eff it get me in I don't care at what price and then we will have a big shake out I do wonder if that coincides with the 100K level right
I wonder if we get up to 100K and then we maybe get quick boom and then one of those and then That's All She Wrote we're going to find out right we're just going to keep taking it one day at a time and staying on top of this as much as possible but the other thing I think is important to point out here okay is the more vertical this goes then the more this is in play so if you don't want this to occur or you don't think this is going to occur then you need
to see this thing kind of go sideways or have some more severe kind of chop or whatever or roll over and break down if you're a distribution supporter anything other than just rocketing higher here and this is probably not in play but you know if this is in play and I believe it is I also believe this is the best fit for the macro backdrop and the stock market and everything else then this thing is going to get very very violent very quickly and most people are going to get it wrong frankly and the reason
I say most people are going to get it wrong right is not only are they not exposed to this move as I said earlier but they're also all using these weird models be it the stock to flow be it power law be it some Dynamic power law right everyone is using these and note what they're expecting they are expecting a bog standard right translated cycle that tops in October of 2025 and then under goes a 12-month bare market and again I suggest to you that's on a balance of probabilities not likely and the reason is
we've had one right translated fouryear cycle okay two right translated fouryear Cycles three right translated fouryear cycles and now the fourth one is expected to left translate now clearly it's not going to left translate but if it mid translates or here's the important thing slightly right translates which I think is probably what's at Play It's it still implies that extended bare market decline and here's the other thing okay markets moved to harm the most amount of participants now we can invalidate left translation now everyone can say well yeah I told you the cycle was never
going to change I told you nothing was different now ask yourself this question which is more painful for the most Market participants is it a having a bog standard right translated cycle that tops in October and under goes the 12-month bare Market where the entire Market gets to look left and go oh it did it there it did it there it did it there okay so yeah we know EX what months to sell and we know exactly how many months of bare Market is coming right is that the pain trade or like I said is
the pain trade everyone locked out up here they'll be screaming super cycle right 300 900 a million bucks whatever it is that's what they're going to be screaming and no one hardly anyone is going to be saying oh you know what I think 24 months of bare Market makes the most sense here right and all of these power law power model whatever it's called right all of these guys are going to be going no no no my model says my model says October of 2025 right that's not how markets work right if everyone's thinking the
same someone's not thinking and believe me everyone is thinking the same here so I still think it fits like I said it fits the macro backdrop it fits the pain trade idea absolutely wild times to be alive I would love nothing more than this okay if we get to October then I can practically just sell without looking at the price and I would know that I've practically nailed the top without even needing to check the chart okay because that's how Cycles work and the fore ccle low will be due but I just don't think that's
come in I think this is going to be really really difficult for people to deal with and I think it's going to look much more like that so as ever one day at a time right super super wild time to be alive what about alt season okay I still am rocking with the base case that there's going to be no broad-based alt season okay thin breath but what if I'm wrong about this what if I am going to get invalidated on this which is more likely now than ever because whole reason I thought no broad-based
Al season would take place is because I was expecting a left translated cycle time okay the two are married as an idea if we were going to have an earlier than expected top in a big bare market and recession for Bitcoin then it makes perfect sense that we wouldn't see rotation into alt season right but since left translation is now off the table okay and the whole idea that it might top sooner than expected is still to be determined right I could easily be flat wrong about this and maybe it's as simple as just looking
at these silly models and saying yep okay October 25 12 month bare Market maybe it really is that easy and if it is then that likely means I will be wrong and invalidated about season 2 so here's what that would look like okay it would look like this it would look like eth would get sent okay and then the gains would get rotated out of eth and into lower caps and then they would get rotated out of lower caps into absolutely anything that is crypto blockchain related or whatever however if I'm right about alt season
watch for these pumps in SS to stop very short and reverse very fast similarly to how people are getting this Bitcoin trade wrong and the pain trade right now is to just keep locking them out you know what the Real Pain trade is for coins okay everyone thinks I'm holding my bags for the long term right I'm holding my bags for 100x 1,000 x or whatever but the pain trade is most of them having just made new lows pop up I don't know 2X and then die that's what I think the pain trade is or
you know even the good performing ones do 5x okay and if you could sell 5x that's a great trade if you only just got into these alss at the lows and they're up 5x already then again you know well done that's a great trade but I think the majority of the market will F this up by once this thing does 2 3 4 5x off the lows instead of thinking okay I better nail down some of my gains they're going to be sat there going ah Lambo season 100x easy on this right and it's just
not going to give it to you it's going to do this that's what I think so the reason I bring this up is simply to say if I'm going to be wrong this is what you should look out for okay this is what it would look like for me to be wrong and if you are the kind of Trader that just wants to be unbiased and open to all possible outcomes then you would also probably do well to consider this as one possibility it does not have to be the most probable outcome for you it
does not have to be your base case okay but if these pumps start to stop very short and start to reverse fast then you might be able to look back and say okay camel did say that was one possible outcome and that seems to be at play now so just don't be one of those people that's like I'm not selling until I get 100 or a th000 x minimum okay because most of these alts are not going to do that they're simply not and don't be one of these people that says well total 3 is
going to break out to new all-time highs yeah I believe you right I believe it'll probably go to you know 2x 3x even where it is now okay that's absolutely possible for me but it only needs one two three altcoins in there to do 20x plus and the rest can do basically nothing and you'll still get that total three hit and Target so just keep that in mind right there's the difference between ult season and a handful of ss carrying these indexes on their back and of course we saw that exact same thing in tech
stocks right we saw the mag 7 carry the US indexes on their back right seven stocks did really well drag the index X is up and everything else was just doing nothing so again I stand with this until invalidated and hopefully now you can see if I'm invalidated if I'm going to be invalidated this is what it would look like I will say this eth BTC has started to move right eth BTC has made a low right but every time I come back here the thing's got a lot of work to do hasn't it it
really does and so the thing to look out for here is if this thing starts to blast off and break out then you can start to say h I Told You So camel you were obviously always wrong about alt season right but if what we get here is failure to even make it to the purple okay it rolls over from here or Worse still we get a big pop and then we rejected resistance and move to New lows okay then somewhere in here might be an idea to be thinking oh man maybe that crazy camel
on the Internet is right okay maybe there's some Merit to what he says and again I say all of this out of love right I don't care if alts do nothing or if they go 100x right I I really doesn't make any difference to my life I don't hold any so I don't care right and people will be like wow what about opportunity cost but look I've already I miss pumps every day I have done every day I will do every day I don't care right I genuinely don't don't doesn't matter to me at all
but I am seriously concerned okay because let's be honest very very few people thought this is where eth BTC would be at this point in the cycle very very very few people thought that this is what the E BTC chart would look like many of those olds okay I see it in the comments all the time and stuff people like Yeah well my ult's up 30% today right but your alt just made new right your old did this all the way to new lows below the cycle lows or whatever and then and then it popped
up 20 30% and you're going ha told you so no no bro you you bought here right that's where you bought and now you're going it's up 20% yeah yeah but it was down 90 before that right so anyway again I'm not saying this to crush people's dreams or anything I'm just I'm just trying my best to make you guys aware of one possible scenario okay hope I'm wrong I would love nothing more than to see this really I would okay for everyone else's sake I don't waste as much time as I on here making
daily content every day just for no reason right I do it because I want to help people and all I'm asking is just be aware okay if we reject at resistance not a good sign if we don't even make it to resistance and then reject also not a good sign and you know what else is particularly worrying okay because I see a lot of people going how breakout okay and objectively speaking this is e against the dollar now that is indeed a breakout okay but where's the level to watch right in here okay if we
get up to this resistance line and we don't go straight through it and break out then again alarm Bell should be ringing okay if we do something like this okay and you've really really really got issues okay real big problems there's also another one here that I would be watching if I was going to trade this so even if it does get through this one okay even if we do get a breakout here watch for rejection here as well okay any of that and you should be thinking oh man that crazy cam might just be
right okay and of course the inverse is true we smash through this okay and then smash through this then feel free to come back in my comments I know everyone's going to do anyway and be like ha told you so right that's fine that's absolutely fine so I've been wrong plenty of times before I'll be wrong plenty of times in the future but as always it's not about being right or wrong it's about staying on the right side of the trade and most importantly it's about knowing your invalidations okay so this is what it would
look like other than that good luck to all the holders it's going to be an interesting and wild ride last thing I wanted to point out okay is gold happens to be right here this is what I believe I believe we're on our way to a weekly cycle low and then it should be party time just as the market is underexposed to bitcoin at the moment I genuinely believe the market is underexposed to gold and I still see plenty of people saying things like it's a boomer metal right seriously something worth considering I believe okay
this is a pretty crazy setup and I'm very very excited about it other than that what is there to say right 82k Bitcoin long and strong Happy Days gold I believe is top for that Weekly cycle we'll be looking for the weekly cycle low soon and then like I said it should be party time for gold and the metals the stock market needs to hold its third angles right we'll see about this and I wonder if we do get this yellow squiggle let's get rid of this I wonder if we do get something akin to
this play out okay that would make a lot of sense it would give Bitcoin the space to complete that move as I said earlier and then we would be looking for that extended bare market decline as a global recession takes hold and notice how the Dixie okay dollar milkshake in play deflationary crash in play okay need to see left translation and failure here if we do then we can open up lower numbers and the major cycle lows not being in yet the major yearly ones but this right translates and starts to move higher and again
right the base case hypothesis is slowly but surely becoming more and more validated by the moment I'm your boy camel I hope you're doing well in life Welcome to the week welcome to Monday and until next time take care cheers bye camel finet he's the man to see rocking the marcket with his contrarian stream trads like a pro no fear no shame sticking to his guns in his mighty game he's a bad ass oh yes indeed gam Finance got the lock its key taking a stories on a bumpy ride Cas emo
