What's up, guys? It's Graeme here, and I hate to say it, but we're all Okay, now in all seriousness, even though Bitcoin was previously the best performing asset of the last decade, today the tables have completely turned. Bitcoin is now officially down more than 50% from its all-time high.
Some of the best investors in the world are calling it worthless. And the situation has gotten so bad that even Micro Strategy admitted that they may eventually sell, leading people to wonder, is Bitcoin finally broken, or is this the exact moment that's about to create millionaires? That's why we have to discuss exactly what's going on throughout the entire cryptocurrency market.
The impacts that Micro Strategy is about to have throughout Bitcoin when it actually makes sense to buy based on the data and then most importantly what history says is most likely going to happen next. Because here's the reality. This could be the single best buying opportunity in years or the biggest mistake of your life.
All based on what I'm about to show you. Although before we start, if you appreciate the breaking news videos like this, it would mean the world to me if you hit the like button or subscribed. Yes, I'm tired of asking for it.
It's annoying, but it helps out tremendously. And as a thank you for doing that, here's a picture of a crab. Oh, and also big thank you to Cook Unity for sponsoring this video, but more on that later.
All right, so to start, let's get right into it. In terms of what we're seeing today, we got to talk about the Bitcoin sell-off. At this point, we really have five main catalysts that are responsible for the recent price collapse.
with the first one being number one, everyone is going risk off. The fact is when investors get scared, they rotate out of risk like cryptocurrency and into safer assets like cash, bonds, and treasuries. On top of that, a lot of money is rotating into other higher upside opportunities like AI, meaning there's less liquidity and money available for Bitcoin.
Leading us to number two, Bitcoin ETFs are now working in reverse. See, when everybody was first buying the Bitcoin ETFs, those ETFs would actually have to go and purchase the underlying Bitcoin to hold as a reserve, pushing prices higher, causing more people to pile in. But now, that's working in the opposite direction.
As people sell Bitcoin ETFs, those funds are forced to liquidate the underlying Bitcoin, causing the price to fall. We also have number three, whales are selling. In this case, large holders sold about 25,000 Bitcoin in a recent single week.
And when the big players head for the exit, everyone else tends to panic right alongside with them. Bringing us to number four. There's no more good news left.
Like, think about it. A year ago, we had all of this excitement about a strategic Bitcoin reserve. New ETFs were being formed.
There was a lot of institutional demand, and we saw these price targets of 250,000, 500,000, and even a million. But now, a lot of that's played out. Some of the legislation has stalled.
Gold, silver, and AI has taken a lot of the spotlight. And when there's not a lot of new money coming in, there's no one new to push the prices higher, leading to number five. There is a loss of conviction.
For years, people bought Bitcoin as a digital gold. Almost like a hedge against inflation, chaos, centralization, and money printing. But this year, when chaos actually did hit, gold went up, stocks went up, silver went up, even Nokia went up, but Bitcoin went down.
Well, guess what? When people lose the story or lose faith, they sell, which causes the price to go down even more, causing even more people to sell. You get where I'm going with this.
Anyway, before we talk about whether or not this is a generational buying opportunity hiding in plain sight or a falling knife going to zero, we need to talk about one of the most influential people that has the power to move the price up or down. And that would be Michael Sailor, or more specifically, Micro Strategy. Now, for those unaware of the significance here, just how big of a deal this is, Strategy is a software company who back in 2020 decided to turn into somewhat of a Bitcoin treasury where instead of keeping their cash sitting in a bank account, they said that we're going to be using a portion of our corporate balance sheet to buy Bitcoin.
But it didn't stop there. As Bitcoin increased in value, Strategy began raising money from investors, issuing debt, selling stock, and using those proceeds to buy even more Bitcoin. In fact, they became such a large buyer of Bitcoin that they now control a whopping 4% of the entire supply, but at an average price of about $75,000 for a total of around 64 billion invested.
The problem though is that with Bitcoin trading at 60,000, Micro Strategy is now sitting at a $12. 5 billion loss. Now, before people say, "But Graham, Micro Strategy could be forced to sell all of your Bitcoin and drive the price down [music] to zero.
" The truth is, Micro Strategy didn't buy Bitcoin with a margin loan to the point where there's a price that would force a sale. Instead, they raised money by issuing convertible debt and preferred stock. So, shareholders are ultimately the ones who will take a hit.
Well, Micro Strategy could hopefully write out any fluctuations in price. Although, there is one more topic that is a bit concerning, and that would be dividends. See, when Micro Strategy was recently raising money, they created a dividend fund to raise more capital to buy more Bitcoin with a stock price that was supposed to trade around $100.
Well, as we've begun to see, the dividend stock is down substantially from its $100 threshold. Well, the market is pricing in the likelihood that maybe they're not going to be able to pay the dividend that was promised. On top of that, their main stock, Micro Strategy, has absolutely cratered, leading Micro Strategy to adjust their framework to include a larger reserve, increase their dividends even further to entice more buyers, and authorized the fund to sell even more Bitcoin if needed.
As you would expect, this sudden pivot invited a lot of criticism, as well as, you guessed it, lawsuits. As of last week, a law firm announced that they would be investigating Micro Strategy and preparing a class action lawsuit. Now, even though this sounds pretty severe, in reality, this is not the first lawsuit against Strategy.
In fact, a year ago, they were hit with an almost identical lawsuit. But wouldn't you know it, that previous lawsuit got dropped. And now that the stock has fallen further again, lawyers are back on the scene.
So, in terms of what this means for the entire market when we are most likely going to see a bottom based on every piece of historical data that I could find, and if this is going to become a generational buying opportunity, here's what you came for. because what I saw was pretty insane. Although, before we go into that, this is exactly why it's so important to take a step back from the charts every once in a while.
Because whether Bitcoin is crashing, people are panicking, or everyone's talking about the next big move. It's so important to actually focus on what you can control every single day. Like for me, the easiest way to stay focused, save time, and avoid making bad decisions when I'm busy is to make sure I'm eating a good meal throughout the day without thinking about it.
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Enjoy. Thank you so much. Now, let's get back to the video.
All right, so in terms of what's most likely going to happen next, when history says is the best time to buy and if this could turn into the next generational buying opportunity, we need to talk about the Bitcoin cycle. To start, it's important to recognize that as painful as this feels, what we're seeing today is not unusual. It's not unprecedented.
This isn't even crazy. In fact, what we're seeing is completely normal. And it's happened many times before.
Like in just the last 17 years, Bitcoin fell 99% in 2011, 56% in 2012, 83% in 2013, 84% in 2018, 50% in 2021, and 74% in 2022. So this current drop of around 53% is pretty normal and it's something that hasn't happened before in the past. In fact, for the last 15 years, Bitcoin has followed an almost robotic 4-year cycle that has so far never failed.
It starts with people slowly accumulating. The price grinds higher. It then all of a sudden goes parabolic.
Everyone feels like they have to buy in immediately, otherwise they're going to miss out and then it tends to crash anywhere from 50 to 80%. Actually, you know what's funny? In early 2017, I made a video on Bitcoin when it was trading at about $1,000.
Back then, no one really took it seriously. So, I made another one when it was $17,000 at the peak back then. And that was one of the most viewed videos on my channel at the time.
But then the price crashed. And I made another video when Bitcoin was trading at $3500. And that was one of the least viewed videos on my channel.
People then were saying that Bitcoin was dead, that it was a dumb idea, that it was a bubble, no one cares. But as it turned out, that was the exact bottom. And for every $10,000 you had invested back then, it would have turned into $350,000 at the peak.
On top of that, when it comes to discovering the best entry price, history says that the best indicator to look at is actually what's called the realized price. For those unaware, this is simply the average price that the typical Bitcoin holder has paid for their Bitcoin. Think of it almost like the break even point for the entire market.
And as of now, that price is roughly $53,000. Why does that matter? Well, so far, every single time, Bitcoin has fallen below that metric.
It's usually marked complete investor capitulation. And historically, in every single previous bare market in 2015, 2018, 2022, Bitcoin briefly crashed below that price before forming a bottom and then parabolically skyrocketing higher. Now, obviously, history could be broken, and just because it's happened in the past doesn't necessarily mean it's going to happen again, but I do think it's something worth considering that maybe there is some good news in the future.
However, not everyone agrees with the bullish sentiment. So, to discuss the other side of things, we need to talk about 0 Bitcoin. Again, some people genuinely believe that this time is different and the consensus seems to be split right down the middle.
Like on the bearish side, the billionaire Jeremy Grantham just said that he believes Bitcoin is a useless speculative mechanism going to zero. And Warren Buffett also agrees. But others like Cryptoquaint tend to believe that the real bottom is actually more like 53,600 and warns that it's still too early to call the turn because demand is so weak.
The firm 10X Research is calling for a low around 55,000 with the bottom forming somewhere between late August and October of this year. And the most bearish charts point all the way to 47,000 or below before we might see a reversal. We also have this rather infamous 4chan post which perfectly called the top in October of 2025 back in 2023.
And if you believe they're right, we wouldn't see another all-time high until September of 2029. In fact, if we extrapolate the previous all-time highs and all-time lows with this chart here, it would point to an eventual price of 150,000 to 400,000, just like this person on Twitter analyzed. Even though, again, some people believe the intrinsic price to be more like zero.
However, on the flip side, most major firms still see Bitcoin ending up this year higher, like Coin Shares is calling for $120 to $170,000. Standard Charter forecasts $150,000. And the longer term targets are generally pretty absurd.
Like even ARC believes that a million-doll Bitcoin is still possible by 2030. Anyway, in terms of whether or not Bitcoin is dead, I do have to say so far Bitcoin has survived the single largest liquidation event in its entire history, tariffs with China, a military conflict with the Middle East, the most hawkish Fed in years, and Michael Sailor breaking his never sell promise. Really, through all of that, it is still here trading at $60,000, which just six years ago would have been crazy to even talk about.
But there is a word of caution here, because historically cheap is not the same thing as a guaranteed bottom. Only about 46% of all Bitcoin is still in profit right now, which matches the lows of the 2022 crash. And the data suggests that a real capitulation moment might still be ahead of us.
That's why anyone telling you one way or another that they could predict what's going to happen is just an estimated guess at best. So, in terms of my own thoughts here, what this means for you, and then what I'm doing with my own money, here's what you came for. For those unaware, I have about 8 to 10% of my portfolio in a Bitcoin ETF with money I don't need that I've been dollar cost averaging into for years.
If the price goes up, great. I hold. And if the price falls, I usually buy a little bit more.
I'm totally fine and prepared that if this falls 80%, I'm not going to be doing anything differently. Except the only thing I have been doing now that the price has fallen is what's called tax loss harvesting. In this case, when the price falls, I'm able to sell my Bitcoin ETF, realize the loss, use that loss to offset other capital gains, and then eventually I could buy back in.
Even [snorts] better, but if you actually hold the physical Bitcoin, there are no wash sale rules. so that you could sell, lock in the loss, and immediately buy back in to potentially save yourself a lot of money in taxes. Beyond that though, for anyone watching the market and just wondering if now is a good time to buy or if you should wait, here's what I think.
One, your biggest enemy is your own emotion because hope makes you buy in at the top expecting even more. Fear causes you to sell the bottom. And the only people I have ever seen consistently make money in cryptocurrency have just felt none of it.
So buy only what you could afford to lose and that's it. Number two is that you should only buy enough where the price swings don't phase you. Like if something were to drop 50% and you're going to lose sleep and panic and think the world's ending, then obviously you own too much of it.
So you should only buy an amount where if the price drops basically down to zero, you would be unfased. Number three, I tend to think you should do the opposite of whatever your gut tells you. Like when I start to get euphoric about a price and like, oh wow, it's going to go to a million dollars.
It's probably not the best time to be buying versus when I get that feeling that, oh man, maybe I should sell now and buy an even lower. That's usually a good time to buy. That's why I think if you follow these rules and you have extra money that you don't mind risking, I actually don't think now is the worst time to buy, especially with sentiment being so negative right now.
But you also shouldn't treat this as a shortcut to getting rich or something that's guaranteed because as we've all seen, every crash is different and nothing is guaranteed to happen in the future. So whether you agree or disagree, let me know down below in the comments. I will do my best to read and reply to as many of you as I can.
And if you want bonus videos from me every single week, including members only financial audits where you send me your finances and I react to them, feel free to join as a channel member. You get bonus videos, early access to videos like this, and priority responses to comments. Really hope you enjoy it.
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