Cabo Real Estate Market Report

All right. >> Hello. >> Market update 2026.

See how it goes. How you doing? Fletcher Weaten.

Alejandro Danu. >> How are you? >> We're going to go over a lot of people have opinions on the market.

We got some facts from year-over-year just to see how 2025 compared to the year prior and then what we kind of see happening for 2026. You ready to get started or you want to have like a fiveminute intro about yourself? >> Nbody else wanted to hear either.

>> Yeah. >> Okay. We had a uh sale in Pedra.

>> Yeah. >> And the buyer was like, "How do I, you know, this guy from LA, really cool guy. I don't know how to set up utilities or internet.

" You did it. So, this is going to be to help people that are buying real estate here. And the next question they're going to have is, "How do I get this in my own name?

" So what was your experience with both of these CF which is electricity and talmax which is the internet? >> Yeah. Well they had like a couple top top of mind questions.

One will be like is it the same like for foreigners and Mexicans to do the the change of ownership of the electric bill and the internet bill. If you want to do it from abroad and you are trying to do it through someone, which is almost always the case, you have to sign an extra paper with this a power, you know, just to do so they can go to the office and do it by your name. But the thing is mostly about the documentation that will be like the main question.

Okay? like what is the major inconvenience and it is that you will find a lot of bureaucracy in the offices you know >> yeah yeah yeah >> and that comes like with the documentation that is required that's the top thing I had to make like five rounds to the offices to make it make it done you are not going to find the like an official document that will bring that brings all the documents you need right so you have to get to the office and they will give you sometimes this little piece of paper handwritten. >> Yeah.

>> And what with what you need but it is never complete. I don't know if you have to bring an ID they won't tell you that you have to bring it both sides you know little things that will get you back for another round. You have to bring a title for CF, a title for the commiss or something that you can acknowledge ownership of the property and you have to bring the whole document.

Sometimes you need you just need like the first five pages, right? >> Yeah. >> You will need like the whole document because they will make a a complete file about it.

And the thing is the first time you go, you will only be um attended by someone at the entrance and they will tell you like you just need the five first pages, but then in the next appointment while you go in, >> they're all giving you different answers. >> We need the whole case. >> It's pretty clear to me that like it's not worth it's a hassle, >> you know?

So just hire somebody to do it. Unless you're really like a boots on the ground person and especially you obviously being a Mexican and speaking Spanish. >> If it took you five trips, it might take the other person like seven trips and then they're just going to get mad.

>> Oh yeah. >> You know, so there's people here that can do it and it was good for you to do it too just to see the process to see how cumbersome and bureaucratic it was. I finally got through everything and at the end they were like, "Oh, but there is a payment missing.

" And they were like, "You got to have told me this from the beginning, you know. " Yeah. Yeah.

And of course, I just did the payment right there and it was finished like last day, you know, but you're not going to get the all the info you need to solve it. >> Yeah. It sounds really bad.

Sounds like the DMV squared. >> One time the system crashed and my appointment have to be moved to the next day. Yeah, that was a next round, you know, like I have to come back and I was like, come on, >> interesting.

All right, so that's that's uh a little bit more than people care to to chew on, I think. So, >> yeah, it can be, but come it can it obviously can be done if you don't want to go through all the hassle. Well, yeah, for sure.

Just hire someone like somebody like Mark did not want to go through that >> Yeah. >> Cool. All right.

Well, let's get on to the sales. So, we're in 2026. >> We've been busy.

You know, there's a lot of people touring. >> So, we're going to go with uh you know, yearover-year 2025 versus 2024. Meanwhile, people were very bearish on both of these years, entering them.

I'm on record saying that I thought both years were going to be higher than the previous year. Um, and they both were. >> Now, people say, "Oh, you're in sales.

" You know, of course you're gonna say that. We're going to give our predictions at the end here, too. So, anyway, what do you think?

Just homes, condos, and lands through all of Baja. Do you think we're up or down? >> I think land is going to go down.

I think homes are going to up. >> Okay. And then just like overall as the market like what percentage do you think we're up or down?

>> It has to be a small upgrade like I don't know 10%. >> Let's see. Okay.

So, where did they end? Up 6%. >> Okay.

>> Okay. So, we sold almost 1. 6 billion this year on the MLS between homes, condos, and land.

Uh, and it's literally almost the same amount of transactions, right? Three less. So, it's pretty much the same.

That That's flat. Uh, but we were up 6% from last year. And I've said this multiple times.

I think that 25% of our market is done offmarket. >> Okay. >> Not reflecting on the MLS >> and uh so I it was a basically a $2 billion year.

Not not too shabby and we'll get into the uh the details here. Okay. But that 6% up uh is that higher price uh properties?

>> Yeah. I mean clearly because you have the same amount of volume, right? >> Yeah.

But is it just bigger homes or is it the same homes but the value has gone up? We'll get into it. >> Okay.

>> So, yeah, it's it's definitely like a higher price point and it's more homes. >> All right. Condo sales.

What percentage of the sales? So, homes, condos, and sales on a dollar basis do the condos represent? >> 40%.

>> See what we got here. So, 28% of the uh volume. So 448 million was the sales volume for the condos, right?

>> Okay. >> But it was 40% of the transactions. >> Okay.

>> Right. So that just goes to show you that it was less than a third of the sales volume, but it was over a third of the sales uh transactions obviously because you have a lower price point than you would on homes. So that represents and we we'll get in to see where that was year-over-year as well.

Home sales. >> That has to be then like 50%. >> Okay, let's see what we got here.

So, home sales, that's close to a billion, right, on the MLS. So, 60% of the sales volume was home sales, but only 35% of the transaction. So, you had more condos sold, but you had more dollar sales in homes.

And that's clearly because you have a higher price point. So last year the average sale for a home in the Cabo C or San Jose corridor was 4. 2 million.

>> Okay. >> Okay. >> Um this all like the high-end stuff.

What do you think it was this year? >> 4. 5 >> 5.

88. So almost like 5. 9 million.

It's close to 6 million. >> Okay. >> That's wild.

>> Yeah. you know, so uh and then in in Cabo it was more like 1 million 1. 3.

What would you what would you answer on that? >> Do you mean like area play however micro you want to get? >> Well, you have to go to S San Jose corridor.

That's where you're going to get the best value for homes. San Jose corridor. Yeah.

Where the average price was like 5. 88. >> Yeah.

Okay. Well, I mean, it dropped it jumped up, what is that? Uh, 37% last year.

So, you're assuming that that will continue. I'm not saying it won't. I do think that's the best value for for hoes.

Okay. Well, I guess you got to start marketing to higherend clients then, right? I'm not sure where I'd go on that.

You know, it really depends upon the client. Um, I think there's there's a lot of different places depending on that, right? I think there's some golf courses that are undervalued right now as well.

Land sales, you know, so we kind of can tell this 13 and a half% right 25% of the transactions, but 13 1. 5% of the sales. So 200 million in sales for land.

And you know, like I've seen a lot of a lot of people are land banking. We have low property taxes here. A lot of those people are starting to build.

>> Yeah. >> You know, and then a lot of the like large tenos, those are going off market, you know, >> of course. you know, especially like in East Cape, >> we we seen that the big parcels are going completely off market.

>> Yeah. >> And as we said, I think in the last market update, people are already changing from buying land to constructing on the land they already bought, right? You know, so like depends, but you've also had lands land sales increase and not everybody wants to build.

So maybe they were like they found a house or they found a condo, right? >> It's building here is not for the fan of heart. It's not for the fan of hard in the US.

>> Certainly not here being remote >> and more in the eastcape or >> Yeah, for sure. Right. >> That you you trust in in those places.

What can go wrong with land sales? We saw this a Well, yeah. But the we don't do a >> Yeah.

>> Period. So, what else can go wrong? We'll say like this.

We always make sure that we have a uh a survey done. Huh. Always get a survey done.

And clearly title, right? But that's why you're not going to do a hedo. >> Yeah.

>> You know, so uh always always get a survey done. We've seen that time and time again. The dimensions can change ever so slightly, but also just make sure it's the piece of land.

We saw this on Saturday. you know, there was like this makeshift fence on the property and you assume that that is the property line, but you could see the fence was put up by, >> you know, Javier, you know, the the campino, you know, it wasn't like an an official line, you know, so you see you see these uh fences up and you assume that that is the property line. That's not necessarily the case.

I've seen that be like a yard off and in one particular instance it was a yard and it like took a yard away from a meter away from us and it was bad. >> We have heard the stories where it's like completely in another part like it's half of the land you know. >> Yeah, it was in front of the third row but it's bad >> for sure.

Due diligence really important. >> Yes. Los Cabos.

Okay. So, what percentage of the sales is uh Los Cabos? And we're going to we're going to say this is Cabo San Lucas, Cabo Corridor, San Jose, Cabo.

And what percentage of the sales on the MLS are in this area? >> 80%. >> It's not bad guess.

Little little uh so it's basically it's going to be 70% of the total sales, you know. So it's funny you have a lot of people oh like hey like people are moving out to Toto Santos or the Eastcape or La Paz Lorettto but at the end of the day Cabo just so easy you know and that's where 70% of these sales come from and it's bigger you know like maybe people are used to hearing of Los Cabos and now they hear of Toto Santos and all of these places and it's like it's popping up right but the mainstream is going to stay here because it's the main area you Yeah, >> clearly a lot of those places the more rural I guess it gets like Le Paz or Lorettto >> you're going to have more offmarket sales so those wouldn't be showing up but that's going to be a lot less here. So the Pacific side now this includes I've always said this like Pedreal which is like the tip of Cabo is like included >> in the Pacific side.

>> No is included in Cabo San Lucas and then above that so like cava on up is included on the Pacific. >> Okay. So I I'm I'm strong disagreement.

You're bad >> completely. >> I mean it is on the Pacific. >> Yeah, but it's Los Cavos.

Well, uh then I will go for 15%. >> It's 16% of the sales, right? And you're starting to see like Thursday we're going to a presentation in in Toto Santos and that's $2.

5 million homes. I mean that's wild for that area. I remember when they barely had anything over a million.

And they might had like three sales in a year that were over a million >> for a for a house and they're launching a whole project that starts at that. You know, we we were just in To Santos this weekend and I remember when we were going to film a house before we got here and we're on the dirt road, you know, and then it's like it's like, hey, this is a big portion of land off to the beach right here, right? So there's like a five minute drive to the beach and then they goes this way.

It's like a $800,000 price point. and you got the map and you're like, "Yeah, take a right. " And I'm like, "No, no, no, dude.

For 800,000, we're going to be like beachside. " You're like, "No. " >> I'm like, "Man, Toto, Totos is getting getting up there, too.

" You know, but that market will continue to sell. A good portion of this, uh, volume is going to be done in the golf communities. Cavira, uh, Diamonte, Retro St.

Lucas, uh, you got another golf course community coming, right? So um that is a and you have a lot more homes than condos when you get onto these these market as well. >> It's more we know the homes are more you know a higher price point.

>> Yeah. We were looking for homes and condos and the condo market it's really reduced especially in totes right it's home. >> No it's more of it's it's much less low density you know more like a PDU.

If you want condos on the Pacific side, it's really and you don't want to be in a golf course community and you want to be like in this area to Santos Escaros, but you're going to really look at Cerritos and we know this like just be careful. >> Be careful people going on two years without a title thoughts. We just pretty much gave our thoughts.

East Cape sales, >> well, it has to be like 5%. >> Yeah, >> it's pretty spot on. Sound So it's 4.

2%, 2% right. >> Yeah. >> So 66 million in the east Cape.

Once again I I love the Eastcape. I've started going down the Eastcape rabbit hole. You like the East Cape, you know, like big surfer infrastructure is lacking.

You know, for example, in Cabo, you could come down here. You know, Mark, for example, Kascatis, he can come down here, he can stay, you know, and he can leave and he knows everything's good cuz he's in a gated community. he's got the setup, all the maids, you know, everything can be done, you know, whereas if you're kind of more fringe, you know, it's not necessarily the case, you know, and it's like if you just have the house out in the middle of nowhere, you know, it's strength and numbers type thing, you know, you want to be around people and feel safe.

They have to know where what they are getting into. I really like when clients come and like we check the area and it's their first time and it's we can you can see it in their face. is not for them or they love it, you know.

But I can truly see more people looking at at the escape experimenting what the escape is and we have even seen developers trying to get into like what is there like can we get into >> Yeah, development is more riskier right now. So, it's tough. And then it's even riskier when you go to the East Cape, especially in areas where you don't have like power for water.

It gets it gets a lot riskier, >> which is almost >> like I wouldn't do it. I've looked into it. >> East Cape Condos.

>> You asked me this. It was like I said less than 10 condos. >> Yeah.

Yeah. So, it's it's two. >> So, last year in the East Cape >> or in 2025, there were two condos sold.

the year before six were sold. >> Okay? >> You know, and this is like why I was so adamant on getting this condo project started.

It would work. It's just you don't really you don't have the same feel. You don't have the power.

You don't have the water, >> you know? You get the water trucked in everything, but still it's not the same. So, definitely just a different area like it's just kind of wild, you know.

And then, hey, look, a lot of this might be sold person to person, you know. >> Yeah. Um, so >> yeah, there has to be a lot on the escape that is out of the MLS, right?

>> Yeah, I think that's more like land, but you know, it's kind of like if you have a small like I think it's Solar, you know, like in Los Pares, you know, they have like an Airbnb that stays there or like a lot of those are trade hands in between the owners, you know, and then like as soon as it comes on the market, they already kind of like sold it to a friend, you know, there. It's still really really small. I mean, you look at the number of condos sold in Cabo, 223 + 156, that's like that's like 400 condos sold in the same amount of time that two were sold.

Le Paz the rest, >> but it's going to be what's another 7%. Can't be seven. H 6%.

So, the pause is a little bit higher than the East Cape. Right now I said that 25% of the sales are done off market in Baja same leaz 40% are done offm market. >> Okay.

>> So if you sold 94 million you've probably sold like uh 130 135 million. >> Okay. Okay.

Okay. >> Yeah. 135 for sure.

>> You can see that's like over 300 tour sales, you know. So, and that's land, condos, and uh and homes. >> We're starting to see a lot of like higherend homes there.

Like I mean like really nice stuff. you know, but like on on a cliff side, >> La Pas is one of the cities in in the whole country that is getting a lot of equity increase. >> So, it's a good place, you know, it's growing.

>> Yeah. >> But it's a different kind of vibe for sure. >> Rich from Ricardo always messes with me cuz he he thinks I like have it out for Le Paz.

I don't. I just if somebody's looking at Cabo and they can't find what they want because of price >> and they go to Le Paz, >> it just it's it's it's apples and oranges. >> Yeah.

You know, >> completely. >> Lorettto, >> this is going to be small for the MLS right now, right? >> Yeah.

>> I don't know like 2% 3%. >> Let's see what we got here. Yeah.

So 3% Lorettto like is the fastest growing market this year. But it's funny because we have an office in Lorettto. got a development at Danzante Bay, right?

>> Um, and one of the agents that works at our office there has been been there for 20 years. It's like the amount of people selling real estate in Lorettto now is like it's unsustainable >> for that small of a market, you know? So, everybody's like trying to get in there and it's it's reminiscent of like La Paz a couple years ago where you just started having a lot more activity.

You have a lot more like a ao parcels. So there's not much, you know, Nollo which is like a master plan community, Danzante Bay, and you got a couple other things. And then downtown Lorettto, which there really isn't much, but there's more and more coming that way.

Limited by flight traffic, but really cool area. Lorettto is beautiful. Not for everybody, >> you know, like younger people might get like bored there.

Um, but it's a lot. There's a lot to do there. A lot of outdoor stuff.

Cabo tourism. So, we saw that Cabo got 70% of the real estate sales. What percent of the tourist dollars in all of Baja are spent in Cabo?

>> 90%. >> It's going to be the same number, 70%. >> Oh, really?

>> You know, we deal with a lot of people that are looking for investment, you know, and they want to get a rental income. You know, you have the a lot of the foreign travelers coming here. Um whereas you know you you start getting into more fringe areas like it can change you know like for example if you're you bought a a condo here and you're Airbnbing it and let's say you bought that in like 2019 2020 you're like hey Leaz is growing I'm listening to this like I want to get into it.

There's a lot of competition and it's also just a different clientele. So depending on what it is, I don't think you're going to get the same amount of uh average daily rate, you know, income. Now, each thing is different.

We see it in all, you know, like good luck with uh Airbnb. You're it's kind of like a race to the bottom in my opinion, you know. So, uh that's a whole another thing, but you know, it's just it's interesting because a lot of people I think it's a good stat to know.

It's 70% of the sales and 70% of the money comes to Cabo in all of Baja. >> I will expect that to see more of the money here of the tourist money here, you know, like >> Well, yeah. I mean, most of it's going to like hotels and stuff, right?

But I think even the hotels are starting to wise up and say like, "Hey, why don't we on our tour in Toto Santos this weekend, it's like Hotel San Crisal and then the Pescarero. " Like they're they're named, but they're owned by like Hyatt. When you go to those areas and they're like, "Oh, I'm staying at Sun Crystal Ball, like a boutique hotel.

" And it's like, "It's owned by Hyatt, >> they just don't want you to know because they know in those markets that Sun Crystal Ball and having a more boutique feel. " >> Yeah. >> There's nothing wrong with that.

>> I'm just super, >> you know. So, I think you're starting to see they're they're being intelligent with that, but I think a lot of that development will happen. >> Yeah.

>> Outside. I mean there's so many hotel rooms here >> and they do well but you know it gets to a certain point where would it would it be better to build a like you know wellness resort in like Lorettto or have the 18th one in Cabo >> of course >> you know so what's what's the uh what's your take on 2026? Well, I'm hoping I'm not being too positive, but I can feel the market a little bit different.

Like, it's growing, it's better, you know, like it's a good year. Um, I think we're going to kind of see the same percentages as 2025, but higher volume. That's what I feel.

>> Interesting. So, like if you had to say on a dollar volume, what are we You're saying we'll be up? >> Yeah.

>> Like what percent? I hope it goes 10%. >> Okay.

>> Increase. >> I think we're going to be down. >> Okay.

Wow. >> I think we're going to be down like two or 3%. I think people like you and me are not going to notice that.

Well, first of all, it's not a big decline, but I think you're starting to see a separation between the people that do business and the people that don't do business, right? Um, so I think a lot of there's a lot of people that haven't had a sale in over a year. >> Yeah.

You know, a lot of people that used to have a ton of sales and like Tazal no longer have sales. So, for me, it's interesting like stock market, you know, the economy in the United States feels like it feels good. Like it looks good, but it's it's kind of like the car is like clean on the outside but dirty on the inside.

You you know, one little thing could kind of erode that. The wealthy have a lot of money, >> you know. Most of the people that are buying these San Jose corridor homes for 56 $10 million, like I feel like those people are very capable of continuing that if they choose to do so.

Although I think they're getting a little bit more cautious. Um I do feel like the submillion market, especially, you know, the person it's like their first time buying outside the United States, I think they're they've been hesitant for 2 years, >> you know, and I think that will continue. Um, so I think we'll be down just a hair, but I don't think anybody will notice it.

And I think the people I think I checked it, man. I think there's an agent here that had like 230 million in sales this year. >> Okay.

It's wild, dude. You know what I mean? That's like LA stuff.

>> You know, what do you tell that guy? Was it down here? >> You know what I mean?

So, uh, but a lot of the people that are, you know, going to that person who is a lot more sensitive to to the price point, >> you know, because we had this, >> you know, like we had a really nice couple from Idaho and they were looking just under a million in to Santos and uh they told us that previously they had looked in San Diego where one of their kids was. >> Yeah. 600 foot apartment for $2 million.

Like really nice, but like dude, 600 feet for 2 million. So you do have to understand that that is like kind of people say like, "Oh, it's expensive. It's, you know, but it's like relatively to a lot of other markets that would be comparable, I guess, in lifestyle.

>> It's still a solid play for somebody that is open to that. >> Yeah, it depends of what you want. And like we've seen that, I won't say with them, but there's a lot of people that are like for political reasons too.

They're just like, "Hey, we kind of want a new chapter. " Like the same old it's like waking up and it's Groundhog Day. >> Yeah.

>> You know, and they're like about to retire and if like, "Hey, if we just stay where we're at, like it's kind of feels like we're coasting where it's like here, you come down here, you get a second wind, you know? " >> Yeah, for sure. >> So, while we're waiting, you already answered.

Would you would you characterize 2026 as a buyer market or a sellers market? >> It's going to be a buyer market >> 100%. >> Yeah.

>> Same thing in the US right now, >> you know. So, uh like Zillow and all these places, uh Resi Club, I was at their conference in uh New York, you know, they're projecting like a 2% growth. >> Okay.

>> In um real estate sales. So, it's the same thing. If it goes up 2% or down 2%, it's really not big news, >> you know, but at the end of the day, people are the buyers have the power, you know, now every project is different, you know.

It's not like you're going to cheno where they're selling stuff, you know, there are options now. >> Yeah. Yeah.

There's there's options. Exactly. So, if you're patient, you know, I think you can get a good deal.

That's what I feel from our clients right now like they are giving themselves the chance to choose you know even if they see like offers for different uh properties they they are seeing that they can find what they want you know they just have to wait a little bit look for it and more options are coming up you know so it's a really dynamic market and it's buying >> so like yeah the FOMO is is gone >> you know so the fear of missing out so it's like, hey, one of the houses they really wanted to see had an offer on it, you know, and they said they didn't want to show it, which means it was probably pretty solid, right? >> But that didn't take away where if that was 4 years ago, it would have been like, "Oh my god, we got to we got to find the place now, you know, and I truly believe those people will. I know I know if they do it, it will be good for them.

" But they have options and it's like that's the smart buyer, you know, and I think they will get a good deal >> just like Marc Gascata has got a good deal. I mean, we got our we got our price on that one. >> That's good.

>> So, that's all we got. >> Well, hope you like it. Like, follow everything for Alejandro, right?

[laughter] >> Keep in mind the bureaucracy in Mexico for the >> man. Just just remind we're on video here. >> He's saying up 10%.

I'm saying down two to 3% on sales on sales uh dollar figures to 2025 to 2026. What's What's the bet for the end of the year though? >> I have to figure out.

We'll let Lissa decide. >> Let's see. Yeah.

Cool.