this is macro voices the free weekly Financial podcast targeting professional Finance high- net worth individuals family offices and other sophisticated investors macro voices is all about the brightest Minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics telling it like it is bullish or bearish no holds barred now here are your hosts Eric Townsen and Patrick cesna Eric it was great to have Darius back on the show now let's get to that chart deck listeners you're going to find the download link for the postgame chart deck in your research Roundup email if you don't have a research Roundup email that means you have not yet registered at macro voices. com just go to our homepage macro voices. com and click on the red button over darius's picture saying looking for the download okay Eric what are your thoughts on Equity markets here well once again we're flirting with all-time highs and I think it's just more confirmation that Trump's policies are gaining traction and popularity with the American people despite the media's Constitutional crisis Tantrums which as far as I can tell the public is finally starting to wake up to for the nonsense that they truly are okay Eric well on page two I have the chart of the S&P 500 and we can see it's trading along 52e highs the big question does it break out I think there's lots of room for it to break out the bigger question is is it a sustainable breakout and in my mind there are only two things that can happen that is going to make the breakout sustainable otherwise it will be a fake out breakout that maybe we have a quick punch to 62 to 6,300 on the upside and immediately it fades all all the way back down so one of the first things is uh that it would need to have a widening of Market breath on page three I have just a percentage of stocks Trading their 50-day moving average in the S&P 500 and we've been pinned in this 50 to 60% range for a month now uh basically when you look at something like the equal weight S&P 500 uh is nowhere near its high the way the S&P 500 itself is and so we would need a broadening of the market in order for this have to have a sustainable move where we' going to 80 85% of the stock market participating and uh that broadening of the market sees a sustainable bull advance I could see let's say 64 6600 uh the alternative to the widening of the breath on page four I have the Magnificent 7 ETF which is talking about the mag stocks and they simply have been huge laggards over the last two months they simply have not broken out not had any momentum uh and uh and many of them are rolling over and um so if you don't have a broadening of the whole market then you need the mag sevens to regain their leadership and if the one of these two doesn't happen then you can't trust an S&P breakout and uh in my mind uh the S&P will potentially he spark out a quick breakout that is gets the attention of the media but if we don't see the underpinning conditions confirming that then I would be fading that breakout uh if we did see that fade happen where it was in confirmed what would be the first warning signs well if a breakout Fades and gets down to like the 6,000 level on the S&P and a you know quick 5% Market correction if we see that kind of damage done then I would be start to speculate that the first quarter high is not only in but then that there actually is room for a bigger or deeper Market correction now before we talk Market correction I want to first see that the Bulls failed to hold these gains and so right now we're going to give the Bulls the benefit of the doubt they just need to prove that this thing is real if we don't see that then uh I will quickly uh uh flip uh to the short side okay let's move on to the dollar here Eric what's your thoughts the prior consolidation range was 107 to 110 we saw a multi-day breakdown below that range this week but we just closed over 107 on Wednesday so the question now is whether we re-enter the consolidation Zone and stay above 107 7 or if the sell-off is going to continue below 106.
5 which is the low we put in just a couple of days ago Patrick I'm leaning toward a continued selloff on continued speculation about the maralago Accord thesis which Jim biano described in last week's macro voices and which Zero Hedge has since picked up and begun reporting on actually they're reporting on the gold revaluation hypothesis they haven't quite got to the zolan bonds yet but I'm sure they'll get that story too from a technical analysis perspective it's still early to call a new downtrend in the dollar but I have a feeling that's where we're head it well Eric there are an increasingly large amount of people starting to talk about the idea that the US dollar top could be in based on the fact that the administration wants a weaker dollar I'm not so sure I'm ready to uh flip to that camp yet uh as far as I'm concerned we had an extraordinary Bull Run on the upside of the dollar and as seen on that chart and we broke out of that 2-year trade range bullishly on the upside and we're now approaching what were the previous highs where they potentially can act as support uh with the fiber trement zones down here I think dollar could easily still consolidate one or two more points down to this 105 to 107 range and still turn around and be bullish and so to me uh I want to first see uh uh whether supports come in here and whether Bulls can sustain a rally on the other side if we see that the dollar rallies start getting heavy fail to follow through and start rolling over I I'll start entertaining a more bearish thesis then but right now I'm giving the Bulls the benefit of the doubt that they're going to hold the line somewhere in here and we're going to see a meaningful rally back up towards the highs all right Eric let's move on to crude oil well we saw a brief test of that critical 100 day moving average at 70 spot 11 on WTI which I emphasized in last week's podcast that was F by a nice bounce all the way up to the 200 day moving average at 72 spot 66 and now we're retracing back to the downside it's not clear uh how far we're going to go but keep in mind the entire Arab world is in shock over president Trump's messaging about annexing Gaza so there's definitely room for an upside price spike induced by geopolitics if the ceasefire doesn't hold well Eric I'm in the camp where I do believe that the lowend of crude oil has been established and we have now gravitated toward the bottom end of that range is there a few more dollars downside risk to oil that could potentially materialize sure but generally I think that we're at a level where there is still asymmetry where I don't think that there's a room for a big breakdown in oil and ultimately just some new Catalyst has to be introduced that potentially could start up a move towards the top end of its range now I'm not super bullish oil where I think you know in the next year or two we're going to see 100 or 120 on the upside but could we see us gravitate back into the mid 80s to the top end of the range we've seen over the last couple years uh I think that's entirely plausible so while we haven't seen a bull breakout here uh that that is really showing the next move I do think that we are at very key support lines that are likely to hold now let's talk gold well as I explained last week the technical setup was ripe for the market to roll over and it was a good setup for maybe a multi hundred correction because we were massively massively overbought well that's exactly what started to happen on Friday we painted a massive red candle dumping $80 in a single day boy it sure looked like that market was rolling over and maybe headed several hundred dollars lower but I traded emails with Jim biano over the weekend and based on Jim's gold revaluation hypothesis expressed in last week's podcast Jim and I both agreed that this dip was likely to be bought sooner than later and that's exactly what happened from this Sunday Futures open right out of the gate there was a very very brief Spike down for a new undercut low below Friday's low but that didn't last and from there the retracement higher was underway within minutes and by Tuesday afternoon we were once again flirting with all-time highs so despite that the technicals still very much suggest T that we're still overbought here maybe not extreme overbought like we were on Thursday uh there's definitely room for a ongoing correction several hundred lower but the thing is all of these dips keep getting bought faster than anyone expects bottom line I'm leaning toward an upside breakout to new all-time highs and above the price channel that began in October 23 I think that's more likely at this point than the technicals would seem to to admit there are two reasons for my extreme bullishness here number one these dips just keep getting bought faster than makes sense in a normal Market is if there's something more going on behind the scenes in this picture and number two the rapidly growing popularity of the gold revaluation hypothesis that you heard about first from Jim biano on last week's macro voices podcast now all of that said even if we did get a $200 downside correction from here which is still possible that wouldn't invalidate the uptrend channel support is just above 2700 now so it would take sustained action below that level to invalidate the uptrend yeah Eric that completely all makes sense we we are very overbought on the short term some of my uh upper Target zones are in this 3,000 to 3050 area on the upside and at some point here we are going to uh bump our head on the upper end of gold and begin some sort sort of mean reversion and correction and like you were suggesting even a $200 pullback which is actually quite typical in Gold uh wouldn't be a break of the primary uptrend it would simply be a consolidation of the advance and could be the base from which continuation patterns will occur in the second quarter of the year at this moment it's hard to justify this as a new Tactical entry level of gold uh but at this point the trend is primarily your friend it we continue to have higher highs sequentially each day you want to respect this upper Trend recognizing though feels very eighth ninth inning of this part of the advance and at some point uh gold will go through a profit taking cycle of some sort uh but that wouldn't be something that would shake me out of the trade and finally Eric let's just touch on uranium what do you think here of uh the way that it's behaving well it's been another week of mostly bullish nuclear news flow and another week of spot uranium and uranium miners Plumbing new cycle lows defying the bullish fundamentals the uranium Market seems to be puking over president Trump's nuclear disarmament comments when he suggested that both Russia and the United States don't need as many nuclear warheads as they both have that led to what I think is completely misplaced speculation about maybe a version two of the megatons to megawatts program which uh dramatically reduced the excess inventory of high enriched uranium that Russia was holding back in the 1990s look it's a completely different situation now that was at the end of the Cold War that the original megatons to megawatts was negotiated at that time Russia and the United States both had tens of thousands more Warheads than they do today also that was not really about disarming and dismantling Warheads the way most people think it was what the what megatons to megawatts program was actually about was Russia's agreement to sell 500 tons of surplus high-enriched uranium it wasn't that they disassembled 20,000 Warheads it was that they took 20,000 Warheads worth of surplus High enriched uranium about 500 metric tons of high enriched uranium that they had in Surplus and sold that to the United States now if that something like that were to happen again which is frankly unlikely in the first place if it did happen then it would be a smaller number it wouldn't be 500 tons because I I I think they've got more than that but they don't have anything close to what they used to whatever did happen it would make exactly zero sense uh for anyone to even think about down blending it all the way to low enriched uranium what we need right now is Halo that's the high test uranium fuel for the new generation of reactors that are just starting to be built from an economic standpoint it makes no sense to down blend all the way down from high enriched uranium to low enriched uranium when it makes so much more sense to stop not quite a little more than halfway uh down that path at Halo which is about 19 and 3/4% enriched as opposed to 5% enriched low enriched uranium the point is if there was any kind of megatons to megawatt 2. 0 it would be to make Halo that would go into reactors that haven't even been built yet and that are not part of the equation for evaluating the current market and and all of the deficits that people have projected in other words it's just not going to matter the bottom line for actual uranium consumption is that we're going to consume as much u308 as we have capacity to convert and enrich that's what is throttling u308 Demand right now is limited capacity for enrichment and conversion if they were to down blend a bunch of hu in order to make Halo or in order even to make Leu which doesn't make any sense it still wouldn't change the fact that we need more Le and therefore they're going to continue to convert and enrich as much as we have conversion and enrichment capacity for so it's not going to affect u308 demand even if it happened and frankly I don't think it's going to happen but the retail freakout that occurred in reaction to those comments definitely underscores the fragility of this Market on Wednesday urm dumped to extreme oversold all the way down to an 18 RSI while Ur dumped to oversold with a 31 RSI just uh teetering on Extreme oversold there uh both of those are still pointed down suggesting even lower numbers may still be to come into next week so it's definitely time to be buying here not selling remember folks the idea is to buy low and sell High we're definitely into oversold if not extreme oversold uh territory here on most of these issues but I still have reservations about all the experts that are making the call saying okay the retail capitulation is now in that means that it's definitely time to make your big buy because it's not going any lower than here look there's so much retail participation in this market because institutional investors were locked out of uranium for ESG mandate reasons and have only just begun to dip their toe in this market so it's completely dominated by retail investors who are famous for doing the stupidest things at the stupidest times so if we continue to get news flow as much as I don't think there's going to be a meaningful megatons to megawatts 2. 0 that doesn't mean president Trump is not going to say we're going to have some massive megat tons to megawatts program that's going to it's going to be fabulous it's going to be tremendous uh if he starts saying things like that I think it's going to freak retail investors out and you could see a fullscale capitulation at that point that would be the time to really start buying hand over fist uh now it's only time to be buying hand over hand in my opinion I think the Handover fist buying opportunity might still be to come we'll see what happens at the end of the day today though one of two things must happen here must happen either all these new nuclear plant builds and all the nuclear plant restarts and all the nuclear plant life extensions that have been announced in the last few weeks and months either they all get scrapped and that whole plan gets completely totally reversed and that would probably take World War III in order to reverse all of those things or they're eventually not sure when but if eventually going to have to start buying fuel for all those reactors both the old ones that are coming back online and that were not budgeted fuel for as well as the new ones that are being built so it's one or the other either all of this entire nuclear Renaissance news flow that we've been hearing gets completely totally reversed despite the fact that Chris wri and president Trump and JD Vance and everybody else are all saying that the US government is now completely behind behind it it all gets scrapped and the whole thing goes in the other direction or sooner or later they've got to buy uranium now that doesn't mean we can't have a retail capitulation freak out between now and then maybe there's going to be even better buying opportunities but right now the buying opportunities are strong if you're not positioned at all in uranium it's a great time to be buying on page eight I have the sprot physical uranium trust uh chart up and the chart just looks awful in a sense that it's being regularly distributed here lower highs lower lows uh on the downside and uh and just being unloaded overall I do actually think there's a very important Target zone right here in this 20 to 21 range uh where uh we could see that selling at least subside but uh whether or not we find start finding support lines or bases it's very likely here that this is going to go deep into March in consolidation of some sort before there's room for a uh bullish turn up while I do think that the bull thesis and uranium is still very much intact the bigger puzzle to solve is when will we start seeing bullying again in this space and that currently is not evident and you have to at least anticipate a few more weeks if not a month of uh basing to have to establish a key turn point of where this can technically start to turn up folks if you enjoy Patrick's chart decks you can get them every single day of the week with a free trial of big picture trading the details are on the last pages of the slide deck or just go to bigp pictur trading.
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