Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

hey everyone and thanks for jumpping back into the cryptoverse today we're going to talk about Bitcoin dubious speculation if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium add intothe cryptoverse decom let's go ahead and jump in so it's already been a fairly interesting month for Bitcoin with it pushing to $106,000 I believe the current all-time high is now around 106 uh 518 so we are certainly seeing some movement and one of the things that I'd

like to do in this video is just go through a lot of the different indicators try to figure out where we are you know is this different than prior Cycles is it more of the same uh we'll take it from there so the first thing is to sort of look on the weekly time frame uh what is bitcoin currently doing and what what's really interesting is that it's it continues to be almost a car copy of what happened last year right we we talked about this a lot where you basically get a move up early

in the year and then you get your summer low right where the the market just kind of doesn't do a whole lot in the summer and then sometime in Q3 Bitcoin continues its Ascent right and and so that's basically how the year played out and you can see that it found sort of a local top right there there in early January and then we just repeated the whole thing again right move up down and then up again what's really fascinating is if you go over here and you look at year-to dat Roi of Bitcoin you

can better visualize it by just looking at 2023 the the year-to DAT Roi of Bitcoin in 2023 and comparing it to 2024 and seeing just how similar of a move it is right it's a very similar move when comparing 2023 to 2024 now there's also other similarities as well for instance if you were to go look at monthly returns by Bitcoin you can see that in 2015 and in 2016 September through December were green we haven't seen that since the only time in history we've seen that for Bitcoin uh where you had September through December

as green the only two times were in 2015 and in 2016 until this cycle where we saw the same thing in 2023 and 2024 in fact the the patterns within those months are are somewhat similar as well there are some slight differences but um like you can see that the September uh of 2015 was only about a 3% gain and then double that the following year and then in 2023 is about four and then almost double it the following year so again there's a lot of similarities to see there even in October right 30% followed

by you know 15 this was 29 followed by 11 so a lot of similarities there and then furthermore the other similarities that we've talked about are Trump becoming the president elect right and the dollar rallying with the long end of the yield curve in Q4 of the having year so if you go look at Bitcoin one of the things you'll note is that the dollar has also been rallying and we we've actually talked a lot about that I mean I I I said many times we' likely see the dollar rally after the First Rate cut

which was right here but I also said that that doesn't necessarily mean that that Bitcoin has to go down because in 2016 we saw the same thing where the dollar rallied starting here right in August well it started earlier but you can see there was a low in August and then another low in November and it just kind of accelerated into the end of the year and so the speculation was that well if if the dollar sort of bottoming out over here in September and it were to Rally about 9 to 10% by the end

of the year that would put it between 109 to 110 the reason I got that number is because that's basically what the dollar did over here in 2016 from around that that same time right September into the end of the year it rallied about 10% and here the same thing right now what's fascinating of course is back in 2016 when Bitcoin when the dollar got that rally Bitcoin also rallied right so you don't always you know it's not true that that just because the dollar goes up Bitcoin has to go down in fact there are

times where they they move together 2016 Q4 was one of those times now you're seeing the same thing play out here in Q4 of 2024 so certainly a lot of of similarities to to sort of make between those two I'd also like to draw your attention to the monthly RSI of Bitcoin and there's this like parallel channel that you can draw um and then you can kind of identify sort of the lower highs on the monthly RSI and actually just because you tag the trend line doesn't even mean the cycle has to be over for

instance in 2013 the monthly RSI tagged the line a couple of times you can see in 2011 it tagged it a couple of times in 2017 it tagged it a couple of times last cycle it only tagged it once but the price of Bitcoin did go higher after that right it went higher here even though it was a lower high on the monthly RSI and and sort of the other way to look at it is actually on the two-e RSI now the two-e RSI is essentially what helped us to identify the you know the quote

unquote midcycle top back in March if you look at the two-e RSI it looked to be fairly extended right it looked to be fairly extended at the time sort of suggesting that you know what we might need to see a longer cool off period more than just like a couple of weeks it might take six to nine months took about seven to eight months but you can see that the two-e RSI when it tagged that trend line that's ultimately where Bitcoin cooled off for about half a year so I would keep that in mind as

well um in 2013 you can see that it tagged the trend line a couple of times like we were just talking about the monthly RSI tagging it a couple of times in Prior Cycles you can see the two we RSI tagged it a couple of times in 2013 and and this actually is playing out in a very similar fashion right if you think about it right if you look at the first top uh and then and then it came down and the first top occurred in April right in April and and then the low was

in June right this time it was March to August march to August and then this was back up into November so far it's still going up and we're currently in December so I would certainly keep an eye on that as well if the two week RSI gets back up here two we RSI is currently at around 78 so you know if it were to get up to like 87 or so that might be an area where the market might start to cool off again uh but just keep that in mind like the RSI is not

really something that you should use to trade in my opinion but it should be used as Confluence with with other indicators right so you know you have you have the year-to-date Roi so you have monthly returns 2023 and 2024 looking very similar to 2015 and 2016 you have the year-to-date Roi of Bitcoin uh still tracking 2023 for the most part right I mean you can see that this is essentially what Bitcoin did uh last year as well where it you know had this sort of final drop into August and September and then it rallied on

up at the end of the year it looks like it's doing the same thing once again if you were to actually look at prior having years which I'm sure a lot of you guys are interested in here's the average of Prior having years now if you just look at individual having years here's 2012 here is 2020 and here is 2016 so you can see bitcoin's kind of right in between them so what's really interesting is if you take the average of those prior having years you can see that Bitcoin is essentially tracking the average for

at least the last month or so last month and a half or so it's been tracking it now if it were to track it for the rest of the month going into say early January it would put it around 120 120k or so if it's able to continue to track that there's no guarantee that it does it's possible that it just kind of does what 20 2023 did and sort of level out before it reaches that in fact the 2016 cycle which seems to be the most comparable uh we've actually exceeded those gains this year

right so bitcoin's gone up more in 2024 than it did in 2016 so that's also kind of an interesting little tidbit you know that that we we've seen Bitcoin go up more in 2024 than than 2016 despite the fact that the market cap of Bitcoin is quite a lot higher so we've covered year to dat Roi we've covered um monthly returns we've covered the RSI but what I'd like to do now is go over to the ROI from the bottom right so Roi after cycle bottom and you can see that Bitcoin is kind of right

in between where it was the last two cycles so doke keep that in mind now it is true that last cycle Bitcoin did get a correction around this point and the cycle before that the correction occurred a little bit later on now I'd like to bring your attention to that idea we've talked about it a few times but there is some validity to the idea that Bitcoin experiences Corrections in January of their post having years that doesn't mean that that the market has to go you know only down in January it just means that you

can get Corrections in January as you saw in 2021 there was a 30% correction in January and in 2017 there was a 30 to 40% correction in January now that doesn't mean it's going to be to a lower price than it is right now um but you can see that there were Corrections in January of the post having years and of course they were preceded by a runup into that level in fact if you look at sort of the weekly candles of Bitcoin right here you can kind of see some similarities right there right this

is November of 2024 this is November of 2016 right so still some similarities in how these Cycles are in fact playing out note is as far as Bitcoin dominance goes if Bitcoin were to accelerate to the upside you would likely see Bitcoin dominance go back up in the short term um as long as you know I if Bitcoin kind of stalls out for a little bit that's when dominance goes down if Bitcoin continues to accelerate higher than normally you would expect Bitcoin dominance to in fact go up so there's a lot of different ways that

you can look at the market you can also measure the ROI of Bitcoin as measured from the peak right so if you measure it from the peak and go Peak to Peak or actually tracking last cycle the closest at the current time if you isolate just this cycle and two cycles ago the 2016 to 2017 cycle it looks pretty similar although this cycle is a little bit more elevated but if you take April 2021 as the top instead of November it looks even more closely related you know to that to that other move right you

even sort of get the bounces and the bottoms around the same time and the initial move up at the same time um now if this is the case then it could mean we're further along than people think we are right it could mean we're on day 13343 um and and would imply we only have a you know a little bit longer to go um now that doesn't have to be true obviously but it is something to keep in mind we're going to follow this obviously you would want to see Confluence with other indicators as well

like you'd want to see Confluence with say the wrist metric um and and and you know sort of like the RSI stuff that we looked at earlier you know if you saw Confluence among sort of an array of different indicators that would would probably provide some some guidance we'll probably do a video specifically on Market Cycle Theory to go through all that if you look at Roi after the having um you you can actually see that this cycle is underperforming uh the last two cycles so you see the last two cycles sort of had a

correction coming up and that might be sort of that January correction which I mean I know it it you know January is only a couple of weeks away but obviously a lot could happen uh between now and then so I would also Point your attention to other indicators like the um there there's another one that I wanted to sort of mention over here yeah it was up it's up here actually it's the stable coin Supply ratio oscillator if you look at that you can kind of see sort of a similar Trend where the initial spike

is not the local top the local top occurs as the ssro sort of Fades back down same thing here right the top wasn't there the top the local top occurred as it faded back down even in 2023 right the local tops occurred even after it faded back down and in and 2023 the same thing right this top early 2024 didn't occur until after this Spike as it sort of faded back down and arguably we're seeing something very similar again where you get the major spike up by the stable coin Supply ratio oscillator and then as

it fades back down the price of Bitcoin continues to slowly go up just showing you a a repeat of the pattern that we've continued to to observe so I I I do think that's an interesting indicator for sure um if we check in with the Bitcoin risk it's currently 653 again if you guys want access to this you can always check out the sale on ITC premium if you go look at the running oneyear Roi of Bitcoin it's basically hovering right around two so it does there's a lot of ways that it looks similar to

this cycle over here of course if you connect the Peaks obviously you are getting diminished Peaks so you're probably not going to see an Roi of say you know 20x or 10x from one year to another but that doesn't mean there's not upside right there's been plenty of upside even if Bitcoin just keeps trending at at just around 2x from the prior year so uh certainly another interesting way to look at the market is to sort of view it through the lens of the running Roi now going back to just the price of Bitcoin um

one of the things to to to look at as well are the daily time frames right so if you look at like the daily time frames what you'll notice is that there's kind of a a lot of similarities between this year and and last year where you basically Al get a drop below the 200 day moving average in in August and we saw something very similar happen last year right around the same time and then you get this sort of this initial move up so you could argue that like kind of this phase right there

is the same thing that we saw like right here okay now if it does accelerate higher kind of like it did right there if that's what's happening right now then it could in fact just be sort of a repeat of what we saw in late 2020 where you get this consolidation for a little bit but then Bitcoin takes back over now the reason why that's important is if Bitcoin does continue this move higher Bitcoin dominance could continue to slowly go up that doesn't mean it has to put in a new cycle high but you know

you can see that dominance also dropped back over there in November of 2020 and then at the end of December you can see that dominance shot up once again and so you can already see kind of some similarities right there's a drop by dominance but now it's starting to go back up again as Bitcoin is accelerating so there's a lot of similarities um and I just think it's important to to keep in mind so I also obviously you know it's at least worthwhile to sort of mention that there are other things going on in in

sort of the macroverse that are worth paying attention to obviously we are in fact seeing the yield curve un invert and the lag time on that between when you know economic downturns happen can can range from immediately to you know a year a year away right and then in fact there was one time in like 1967 where it was like 2 years later so you have to remember that there there can be lag times on that sort of stuff um but what you really like to see is sort of Confluence amongst a lot of indicators

to figure out you know is it a market cycle top or is it a local top right and that's really kind of the the the the difficult thing as to you know there's there's obviously local tops along the way but how do you actually identify the market cycle top now what I've been looking at again is the risk metric and that was one of the reasons why I didn't think that March was the market cycle top was because the risk had only gone up to around um you know 7 to point8 and normally Market cycle

TOS make it to the 08 to 0.9 wristband at the very least so that was at least one thing uh to consider back then as to why it like wasn't a market cycle top but it does just sort of remind you of where we are in the cycle the other thing to keep in mind is the social risk right so the social risk is still around. 3 to point4 still relatively low all things considered um and and you know for the people that want alt season to occur you need to see retail come back aggressively

right I know sometimes it feels like it's like 2021 but the social risk kind of shows you that it's not right if if this were like 2021 you would see Bitcoin dominance falling off a cliff okay um but you don't see that right now that doesn't mean you're not going to get it but remember normally all seasons have occurred in post having years not having years so that would correspond to next year if in fact it's going to happen so those are are are some views to just sort of Express there about Bitcoin obviously it's

it's dubious speculation and you know we do have a rate cut coming up this week by the FED I would have you know I I would argue I would have argued that if the bank of Japan had raised rates you'd probably get a correction um the the bank of Japan raised rat because the bank of Japan is also meeting on the 18th right and everyone's going to be looking at what the fed's do going to do but the bankage pen is probably more important so when the bankage pen raise rates in March Bitcoin then got

a correction right the next month in April and then when the bankage pen raise rates in July Bitcoin got a correction in August so the bank pan is going to be meeting here in a couple of days but Market probabilities suggest they're not going to raise rates and and that there it could be deferred until either January or March now if it were deferred toward January it might line up with a typical January of the post havinge correction furthermore though even if they do raise rates in December it doesn't mean that you necessarily have to

have an immediate correction for instance when they raised rates in July uh you know earlier this year the the market didn't actually get the correction until August right so it wasn't even immediate when it even did happen so even if they were to raise rates in December you might not see the markets really reflect that until sometime in January so uh I would you know i' would certainly keep that in mind so a lot of stuff going on in the markets uh bitcoin's continuing to to climb the wall of worry as as the unemployment rate

you know came in last week or a couple weeks ago at 4.2% and I I I said that as long as it doesn't come in really above I I think I said what I said was if it comes in at 4 to 41 it's really bullish if it comes in at 43 or higher it's we'll probably get a correction if it comes in at 42 it you know it's more so neutral um but you know Bitcoins continue to to go up and it kind of just reminds you that it doesn't need a reason to go

up it needs a reason to go down so until you get a reason for it to really go down the market just sort of slowly continues to to go to the upside so I would be watching the RIS metrics i' I'd watch sort of that that monthly RSI the week the twoe RSI um watch the stable coin Supply ratio oscillator I would be mentally prepared for some type of a correction in in January um and I I will do another video soon where we talk about Market Cycle Theory and and we'll go through you know

sort of the different scenarios and you know what's the most probable and at what point could we sort of lean towards one over another right I mean at this point everything is still up in the air right you know every all these cycle theories for the most part are up in the air you have left translated Cycles you have sort of the normal cycles and so on and so forth so we'll do another video on that I don't want to make this one go too long um a lot of people have in fact requested shorter

videos so we're try to keep this one not an hour like I tend to do uh you know at other phases of the market cycle but let's see where Bitcoin can go and and I I'm just going to keep looking at at you know some of these other charts that we've been following for a while and that's just you know look guys if it's not broke don't fix it and Bitcoin just continues to track basically what it did last year you know for all the indicators out there telling you what was going to happen or

the news stories it's just doing the same thing it did last year and in addition it's also doing at this point in the cycle it's just tracking what it did during the average of the last three having years right it's it's it's been tracking it almost perfectly for the last five or six weeks so I you know I hope these videos are useful to you guys just trying to keep everything you know trying to stay on track with the cycle and and and figure out where we are and what are the most likely outcomes um

but I think one of the reasons that you get Corrections in January is because there's you know there's uncertainty associated with changes in administrations with the US president um that doesn't mean that Bitcoin can't go higher after that but I I think you you will get and this time you know what it could be is it could be Bitcoin gets a correction after the inauguration or sometime just to sort of figure out all right are we actually going to get a strategic reserve and if we do then Bitcoin will likely just continue higher if we

don't obviously that could set the stage for you know a larger correction um um but that's where I think we are in the cycle right now and uh let's just see if it continues to be a carbon copy of what happened last year now again what happened last year is that you know Bitcoin did sort of slowly go up then it accelerated into December and then it kind of stalled out until January where it had that correction in January and then in February it continued but you can see that it also had a correction in

January so I would be on the lookout for that sometime in about say 3 to four weeks um but obviously a lot can happen between now now and then with Bitcoin and if hopefully Bitcoin can just continue tracking the the the prior years where it goes up sort of at the end of the the year and this is why I've mentioned before that the cyclical view is extremely compelling it's a very strong View and unless you have a reason to fade it you're probably better off not fading it okay one of the I you know

I actually disagree with most forms of technical analysis uh even though I try to I try my hand at it at times but really what you want to focus on is just sort of momentum right you know momentum usually precedes you know the the the continued momentum and and you need sort of a reason to get those those Corrections so we'll see if we can see something like that happened uh this cycle as well and then hopefully the next video I do will be sort of a more complete view about Market cycle theories and sort

of going through all the different theories so we can try to best figure out where in the cycle are we if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and again check out the sale on intothe cryptoverse premium at intothe crypto.com I'll see you guys next time bye