2 Months of Chop :(

[Music] [Applause] [Music] warning this video and all other videos on this channel for entertainment purposes only the content of this video and all other videos on this channel are the opinions of the Creator only and do not constitute legal trading investment or financial advice of any kind investing cares a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money do not invest in capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all all right hello welcome to C Finance I'm your boy camel and welcome to the week welcome to

Monday I'm not going to lie I'm pretty disappointed in the price action I'm observed at the moment so unless we can essentially come rocketing out of this current setup and start to print some higher highs and higher lows then this daily cycle is going to fail and if this daily cycle fails it means we have got to waste nearly two months of time until we can find that early March weekly cycle low so it doesn't necessarily mean we have to be crashing but it does mean we've got to waste the time whether that is sideways

or whether that is down nobody knows right we'll have to observe that and deal with it as it comes but if we like I said don't come swinging out of this cycle low if we can't get a big pushup and set some new higher highs and higher lows then we are going to have to put on quite a boring setup as we have to grind our way into that early March time frame to find that Weekly cycle low now the positive news is once we get there it should in theory present a nice opportunity to

get behind a whole heap of tradable swings but I was really hoping what we would get is a squeeze to new highs first and then some kind of quick flash crash into a weekly cycle low but it seems to me the market is speaking right and it doesn't matter what I think or think or anyone thinks when the market speaks it's our job to listen so I'm going to show you a few things some of them are Uber Uber bullish right but again in the more short to medium term I think we are setting up

for having to waste a good amount of time so let's get into today's episode I wanted to say thank you to the people that have been sending me things to the PO Box I really really appreciate it some people have been sending my dog some toys as well so thank you very much to all of you that are very kind and treated me to some Christmas presents you're going to see the theme today is camel super super bullish longer term but in the short term we're at a Now or Never stage if if this is

in play and we've got a triple bottom and this comes next then Happy Days okay weekly cycle low flush can come later that has been my base case for a while if you've been following me for any length of time at all you know that's been the base case and we just so happen to have done all of this and now right about here so there's still a chance until we fail this cycle we could indeed see this weekly cycle low flush okay but if we're about to fail this daily cycle like I said then

we might be in trouble here because that might imply that we've got to build some kind of big base up until early March so let's hope we can get a triple bottom here's what it looks like for Bitcoin hopefully we're about to start to get that squeeze to the upside but you know print a new lower low here especially on a daily closing basis and we have got a failed cycle which tells us we have to waste a whole heap of time into that March time frame longer term though Ral Paul is showing me something

that I find very interesting and just a wee bit exciting to be completely honest with you this chart in White shows Global M2 the money supply between 2016 and 2018 okay when Bitcoin had that huge parabolic blowoff top run reaching about 20K for the first time ever and in this kind of blue color that we've got this is global M2 today so according to Ral we are going to see M2 tick up here so does this imply if this is going to play out that we're going to see some Trump printing does this imply that

we're going to have to see an increase in monetary Supply and perhaps what we're going to have to see is somebody step in and deal with this Dixie which is currently trading at 110 so is someone going to have to step in here and start to print some dollars increase M2 to try to devalue the Dixie and will that therefore give us the backdrop to have a very very similar Bitcoin run such as we saw in 2016 to 2018 and speaking of 2016 to 2018 here is the current bitcoin price the current bitcoin cycle in

bread overlaid against that 2016 to 2017 parabolic ball run so so far it's actually on Pace right and again if it can find a low very soon and then start to push higher we may have to put this on the table Adam back points out if this actually is to repeat and we are to make it up here that would be $1.6 million per bitco coin and I can tell you for sure nobody thinks that's on the table right now however data is data okay it doesn't matter what anyone's opinion is it doesn't matter what

I think or you think doesn't matter if I believe we can go to 1.6 mil or you don't believe none of that matters right what matters is so far we're on Pace for it and at the same time it's against the backdrop of a Dixie that needs debasing and an M2 fractal that may well end up repeating for that same era that we get this fractal overlay from so maybe just maybe absolutely no one is bullish enough including me I haven't even entertained that we could get above about 300K I thought 300K would be absurd

and to be honest it does seem kind of insane that we would just be looking down the barrel of like a 16x from the current prices that just seems that just seems out of order but one thing we can say for sure is in trading it works until it doesn't and right now this seems to be very much in play so start to break down from here start to trade sideways start to deviate away from it and we can say well yeah Told You So 1.6 million was total delusion but if this thing is about

to find a low and fire off if it's going to continue to trace this then from my perspective at least there's really no need to doubt it there's really no Rhyme or Reason to doubt this is what's in play so as you can see I'm super super super bullish long term until the market shows me something else and you can also see retail demand at key levels the 30-day change percent in retail demand has dropped to q22 levels and the last time this happened it sparked a major surge down here at the hard right Edge

similar look to back here and we saw a big push for Bitcoin so are we oversold on chain seems like we might be and just before we get into the charts and going show you a couple of scenarios pertaining to the weekly Cycles I wanted to give Jimmy a shout out here cuz he shared this with me via DM and I was very very very impressed with this a very very nice and simple local and major top indicator is the money flow on the weekly time frame you can see here this is a weekly chart

down the bottom is money flow and when we combine a trend line breakdown in price with a trend line breakdown in the money flow index all the way back in 2013 this would have gotten you out of the top what about back in 2017 the next cycle well the same technique would have worked again combined a trend line breakdown with a breakdown on the money flow and you would have gotten out as close to the top as possible in trading in 2021 a trend line breakdown combined with a money flow breakdown at the bottom also

gave you a very very nice exit signal for the first Peak and it even would have helped get you out of the second Peak trend line breakdown very very simple strategy seems to be pretty accurate so far so let's take a look at 2024 2025 well after we had that run to the all-time high preh Haring topped around 73 74k okay we then get a breakdown on money flow and once more it would have got you out pretty close to the ultimate top and notice now today at the hard right Edge bitcoin's price squeezing higher

money flow index working its way up a trend line so if we can get some kind of trend line breakdown coincide with a money flow index breakdown based on historical data it suggests we ought to be paying attention to that so I thought I would share that with you thanks again to Jimmy for sharing that with me and then the question of course becomes what are we going to do about these markets right because the Dixie keeps ripping higher and whilst it sounds cool to look at Ral Paul and his big fractal right whilst that

sounds cool whilst it sounds amazing to say 1.6 million per Bitcoin okay the reality is there's no sign of this yet right there is no sign of this whatsoever you've got a very stubborn fed that seems to not want to be printing or even ending QT at this moment in time right so this to me just seems a bit Pie in the Sky until something changes but this may well given the strength for the Dixie be forcing some people to have some conversations behind closed doors to try to figure out a way to Cil this

but for now at least if it ain't broke don't fix it we've been expecting this thing to move higher and so far it is moving higher for the stock market it's funny how a few weeks makes such a big difference isn't it back here I added a red arrow for the top and said this is where the ultra longterm Cycles are due to top I also Drew this yellow squiggle and all people did is Mock and Jer at me and laugh at me and troll me on Twitter right and then we get a trend line

breakdown Before Christmas the camel crew goes flat particularly in the member section we unwind a bunch of these positions lock in the profit from lower down and everyone says oh you you've panicked sold the low all of this kind of stuff and now fast forward to today and we are going to continue to move down targeting the second angle if we do not get a huge strong bounce after we touch this trend line okay and swing up here then we will have to continue to expect this yellow squiggle to play out and here's the key

part that weekly and daily cycle low is not due until the end of February so this could get pretty nasty pretty quickly I'm not saying it has to and if it follows my yellow squiggle then you can see it's not going to get super nasty but in terms of time there's no real tradeable opport OPP unities that I can see at least till late February now there's always a chance that we could see a big spill here okay and then get a half cycle low inv version I'll be on guard for that but from a

stock market perspective in just a few weeks we've gone from no way camel you're wrong you're wrong you're wrong to okay well now it looks an awful lot like we're not wrong so it's pretty interesting to me how quickly risk happens and how quickly all through here everyone was screaming by the dip right everyone's screaming oh we're early in a bull market whenever I suggested we might not be that early again people got very angry about that and now we seem to be facing one of these moments in time where the people that know how

to manage risk are managing risk are taking it one day at a time of being cautious here and on Twitter all I see is the same old people telling us there's one leg to the upside left right there must be one more High left yeah we're still early so I don't know about you but to me this is not looking very good this is not looking very good at all notice how on Friday okay the Dow Jones broke the second angle and is now working on an even lower move to the downside so this is

pretty significant again risk happens fast and just jumping up and down and screaming by the dip when you have no Rhyme or Reason to and their cycle lows on you for a while I don't think it's going to cut it and so for the stock market we have got all the way until late February perhaps even early March before we can start to entertain some weekly cycle lows and when we look at Bitcoin Bitcoin has had plenty of opportunity if my count is correct and I believe it was day 56 we had the back test

and now as you can see it looks like this thing is going to fail truly fail daily close below all of the lowest lows I know there was some contention at the time and some people were saying no camel this is day 66 well the end result is going to be the same we're about to see a failed cycle by the look of it of course until such time as we are stopped out then it's always possible that we are about to come swinging out of here but given the backdrop of the stock market given

the Panic is probably going to start to take hold pretty soon it doesn't seem likely to me what seems more likely to me is that we've got some daily and weekly cycle lows to find for Bitcoin that's not until early March even later than the stock market so there's kind of good news bad news here the bad news is we're about 2 months away from finding tradable cycle lows that's the bad news there's a good couple of months of either chop like this and then go or perhaps even a much nastier correction all the way

back down to this you know 72 73k range whatever so that's the bad news but the good news is once we get there all of the prior weekly Cycles have provided us with a very very nice opportunity to get behind a massive massive move in Bitcoin and if I turn all of this stuff off and just grab my pen I wanted to show you something very interest in here and I was showing this to the members at the weekend right let's say that we don't have to have some huge huge puke back down to retest

this okay let's say that's not on the table and instead we're just going to kind of chop around and build a base in here something like this weekly cycle low early March and then off we go well all this will be is Bitcoin building a base and doing a double right and it does this routinely this here was a low of about 15K it builds a base it breaks the base and then it does a double up to 30k right and then again it builds a big base it breaks that base and it doubles from

the low point of 26k to 50K then again it builds another base and from the low of 38k up to the high of 74 again is roughly a doubling then it builds a massive base and again from the low of 50k or 49k it then doubles well it overd doubles makes it all the way up to 108k and now it seems to be putting in another base but here's the really interesting thing right even if the low ends up being let's say the worst case scenario from my perspective which would be a back test of

this 73k level okay let's say it goes all the way back down there a doubling from 75k is 150k easy right and if that low happens to be 80k for Bitcoin then of course a double in is 160k or what if we do what my squiggle here suggests and this is actually Bob Lucas's base case at the moment that we're just going to chop around like this until early March if the low can maintain at 90k or 89k somewhere around that neighborhood then needless to say a quick double puts us straight up to 180k and

it will just be this kind of stair step base build and double stair step base build and double and then when we come all the way back here it will have all the familiar symptoms of that right base build double base build double base build double and that's how we very quickly get to a number that no one was willing to entertain so it's by no means a call or a prediction I'm just pointing at stuff and saying as always I want to be open to everything and I've spent an awful lot of my time

being open to earlier tops I've spent all of my time being open to managing the risk and putting the downside scenarios on the table but the reality is Right we've done the work we've caught most of the move from the lows okay yeah we paid a couple of stops in here and it looks like we're going to pay a stop here but that's okay cuz we'll lock the gains from the first trade we know that Weekly cycle low is coming into Focus so I've got two options really I can either try to force things or

I can just acknowledge that the Market's going to do what the Market's going to do we've got a weekly cycle low in focus and out of there particularly if we can get a violent flush we should expect even in the worst case scenario to see a good strong push out of that Weekly cycle low and then if it's going to die it will roll over and die from there and for the stock market you know we've caught this entire move right we've done the work at the lows I said everyone was too bearish you know

we traded in and out of this thing publicly the whole way up we caught almost all of it and sidestep the draw downs and now once again we Sid stepping the draw down and out of that Weekly cycle low we're going to get in the worst case scenario a bounce a left translation and a failed cycle okay in which case we can catch this counter Trend bounce and jump out here and in the best case scenario we can somehow avoid a recession we can somehow say that none of that data matters or maybe the data

improves right maybe like none of that stuff is actually bad and we are indeed early in a bull market and what we can see is this thing resolve to much much much higher numbers but in terms of the work rate and I think we've done it right we caught the moves and now it's just a case of sitting on the sides and waiting for those weekly cycle lows to show up and then out of those weekly cycle lows will have something to do so I'm your boy camel it might get kind of quiet here for

a while on this channel I'm still going to be posting every day but I mean I I I don't really see how I can be putting trades on at the moment given where we are in the weekly Cycles I'll be on guard for inversions and early kind of force lows just in case they're to show up but on a balance of probabilities there's not a great deal of work for me for the next couple of months of course if that changes I will update you of course if you're a level three member and I find

some trades I'll put some trades on but for now I kind of expect to just sit back let the market give me what it's going to give and then we will formulate a plan and keep an eye on the space in the meantime other than that have a fantastic week I'm your boy camel all the best cheers bye camel finet he's the man to see rocking the markets with his contrarian stream trads like a pro no fear no shame sticking to his guns in his money game he's the bad ass oh yes indeed camel Finance

got the lock its key taking a St me on a bumpy ride Cas emotion