What Is the Dominant Crypto Market Narrative?

Hello and welcome to another episode of Casual Friday I'm here with the duck as always the show is brought to you by woo links available in the description below it's been a fun time in the market Don but I would like to take a moment to remind people that you are a fraud who pretended to retire in order to Gar a sympathy did this whole emotional think piece about the state of the industry and meme coins Etc fake for like two Days and now you're fully back in the trenches swinging it on absolutely everything so

I just want the record to reflect uh that are a dishonest person whose word is not to be trusted no no I mean all of what I said was just a meme and was never true to begin with just a prank just a prank bro no I still I honestly still would say that that I'm mostly retired I'm just having some like vacation fun I this not going to be longterm like me trading like this and What does trading like this entail because you also tweeted this morning that you've never traded so poorly but still

made money that's like a quintessential Don humble Flex like oh my God I'm so stupid but hey I still made money just you know just so everyone knows I haven't lost any money cuz I'm really good at this the this is zero% skills just I picked the right thing right so I I mean I've been Shilling xrp for the last I don't know Like three or four days yes um and uh that's the coin that's up the most pretty much and that's the main coin I've been trading so I should be up infinite right but

I've managed to lose money on other things and uh just generally like every time I go to bed and wake up I I wake up poorer for some reason but the Market's still exactly where it was so like that's like I've just not Traded that well I just uh I picked the right coin and uh yeah that's pretty much it what part of it has been dodgy is it over managing is it rotating coin selection basically my my problem is that I think um we have like two scenarios um that both make really like make

a lot of sense to me and I [ __ ] hate that situation uh one is like especially like in the last day or so last two days where we had like a bigger sized pullback on bitcoin um I Could tell that a lot of people were in like stuck in all coins basically and the all coins didn't go up when Bitcoin went up and then you get a Bitcoin pull back like that's the P perfect recipe for like the or Market to just take a massive massive hit right like you get a massive leverage

wipe out everyone gets [ __ ] um but also you want to have allcoin exposure right in in the current um in the current market given that like I think everyone kind of assumes that Like retail is going to jump back in it's going to do dumb [ __ ] like they've always had like whenever we've made a significant new all-time high so it's kind of like this thing where you want to have exposure to all coins but you also expect like a massive leverage nuke and you don't want to be the leverage that gets

nuked right but you also want to have exposure and um therefore you're kind of you're kind of stuck in a in in a between a rock and a hard place where You have to make a choice whether you want to have um the oin exposure with the risk uh sorry about that someone I was going to say may if that goes off one more time I'm reaching through the Monitor and strangling it's almost as bad as my [ __ ] beeping for the entire episode a couple remember and the worst part is that like it's

on my second computer so I can go but I hope this ends it's actually just some random spammer sending me dumb shits um but I Would have to get up to hey if if it's a k round just forward it to me I'll I'll take care of it yeah but anyway like you it's basically like that so I I've kind of like tried to be as aggressive as I could be while being defensive enough to not get like caught with my pants down and that combination just doesn't really work um therefore like I just like

I could have managed the trades much better like that's the problem when you have like two scenarios where it's just Kind of like um that are opposite to each other uh something that we talk about a lot where it's like those are the worst times to trade if you're like not sure which one is going to win out um and uh yeah I got bailed out by having like I said the right coin that I traded xrp is up infinite so I'm still up um and I mean the the the rest is kind of like

scratches but still it's annoying um because it's basically bad trading right like and and I you can Clearly tell when you're trading poorly even if you're making money like it's pretty obvious like it's the same with poker players right when they play poker and someone like a poker player wins and they're like but I like I played so [ __ ] dumb like this was just bad bad playing and I got lucky and that's kind of how I feel like right now uh and it pisses me off like I don't like it um because usually

like I'm more happy with trading well and losing money than I am With trading this [ __ ] poorly uh still making money but um just fumbling a bunch uh so yeah that's kind of the the backstory to that um especially since like at the end of the day uh I actually posted the perfect Hedges on Twitter before like where I was like hey um you can trade like xrp and and Ada and just hedge it with with salana and and E shorts um and that trade moved like 15 20% um and that is very

well positioned For like scenario like that where the market takes a wipe out right because you still have exposure because you kind of have like the dumb coins and that's exposure to retail Mania but you also have like downside protection um so if I just put those trades on instead of trying to be even more fancy than that I would have made much more money what a good problem to have done realistically yeah I mean that's the that's the cool part about like ring Bull markets right where you're like dude I'm such a [ __

] [ __ ] I don't know how I'm up this much and I mean that's just how the market goes right now but that's going to end relatively soon I think so I mean a broader question here that I've seen some discussion of and there are a few discussions going on right now you know how early are we uh does unit size bias matter is the current narrative like AI oriented versus kind of front running a Lighter regulatory um environment and you just kind of buy the shitcoins going to get listed or relisted like on

coinbase Robin Hood Etc there's a bunch of stuff floating around right but one of the interesting ones from like a I guess a macro trading perspective uh is whether this move should be seen as an event driven trade or not right so by event driven trade it's basically that you know this is uh the on the back of the Trump presidency win essentially and A bunch of repositioning and front running of the you know his administration done on the back of that but just like any event driven trade or news driven trade uh there's an

expiration date on it and in general uh the bulk of the move is done ahead of the actual news and by the time the news itself comes um you see some drisking and fewer marginal buyers left or not so intelligent marginal buyers left when the headlines come out right that that's Sort of the basis of uh bu the rumor sell the news in general there are a ton of nuances and exceptions to that type of stuff which we've discussed at length on this show like you need to consider the market as a whole you need

to consider the markets reaction to news you need to get a sense from flows and positioning like how much of it was priced in and also at which point SL how close the new news event itself there are like a ton of nuances but just in General from a categorization perspective uh do you agree or think that you know this move is essentially should be seen as an event trade or do you see it uh in another lens and the other lenses for example would be it's like purely technical right like it's a break from

a six-month consolidation that happened to overlap with a news event and you could also have like again a macro SL regulatory view of it which is less event driven and like yes it's Like the Trump thing but overall crypto the US has now taken a pro crypto stance and that's bigger uh than a single news trade so out of all those Frameworks and all the other ones I obviously haven't discussed in this non-exhaustive list uh where where do you land so a little bit of just a news trade and a little bit of the macro

landscape has changed but mostly the news trade I think um a bunch of people are basically uh very happy to get exposure um because they feel like The the environment has changed and maybe it has right like maybe and this is largely my own feelings on Trump right that dictate this because at the end of the day Trump is the one wants beheading this right so you kind of have to you kind of have to um like Trump makes or breaks this thing and uh given I have been rugged by him on an nft before

I'm not entirely sure he's gonna just rck the crypto space in a way like not as in like not launch crypto and Then rug it but just like go back on his promise [Music] um and I think that's there's a decent chance of that I think it's he's more likely to actually fulfill his promise they're not but I think there's a decent chance that he just doesn't do what he says um like I would give it like the odds of like 20 30% that he just doesn't do it um which would be a massive massive

event right like if he doesn't Do it and it gets priced in um that is considerable downside and then um even worse I think is if if he if he [ __ ] it up um and there's like multiple ways to kind of do it um going to crazy would basically make him look like a lunatic I mean this crypto after all right and I mean he doesn't really need much help with looking like a lunatic from time to time but you don't want to like overdo it completely um and I could see like some

of his his advises kind of like Pushing him in the wrong direction there um but just generally like it depends on how you see Trump if you see Trump as this genius businessman that is never gonna [ __ ] anything up in in his life um and he's always going to fulfill his Pro promises and he's going to do it in the best way possible um then I would categorize this more of a landscape shift right um if you think Trump is just a human being like a normal human being that like does something well

and Some things worse I think it's more of a news event and then it depends on kind of how how it all plays out uh I'm I'm in the camp that I think um The closer the presidency gets and the closer we get to Christmas basically um um the less like the the worst the crypto trade becomes um at least short term I think there's a I I did like I draw I drew something up and before Trump became president I was like if Trump becomes president that's what I think will Happen I was basically

move to 100K and then back down to 60 70 um after he becomes president uh into like sideways into longer term up I mean 6070 would be kind of brutal now uh yeah but I think like a lot of the a lot of this um breakout above 60 70k is just very froy um not leverage froy but just a bunch of people basically thinking they cannot take a loss on this because it's guaranteed money I mean the president of the United States is pushing this right So I think everyone in crypto besides a handful of

[ __ ] Bears um just went all in on that uh and um if you don't get new flows basically if you don't get ba bailed out by the US buying um or if you cannot attract retail I think that can end end quite like poorly um but generally speaking um I think like this is a positive news event is like fundamentally also a little bit positive um not as Extreme as people say um I think it just accelerates the timeline For crypto but um yeah it's it's a positive news event the if it was

just Bitcoin I'd actually be much more bullish on it but given like I said the the history with Trump that he kind of like he he dabbles in nfts dabbles in like making like making coins all that stuff I I legit think I I made this this this point on Twitter that it's crime season and I legit think that given given Trump and what he's done in crypto So far which has been basically the only thing that he's done in crypto so far has been like Ruck pulling me which is like hats off um I

I think a lot of people are basically gonna do a bunch of crime and I think that's bearish crypto um so if it was just Bitcoin uh that' be one thing but I think given Trump and his stance on kind of like regulation and everything I think he's just basically gonna let let Let crypto do its thing and that's going to bullish shortterm but not bullish long term um because if you have too much crime in a in a space that just cannot self-regulate we actually as a space kind of um make the the scammers

into Heroes right like we've had a bunch of people scam and they're like Community Heroes because wow they made so much money if only I could scam like that like it's just absolutely absurd and in A space like that uh um I like less regulation as dumb as that sounds coming from like a crypto background right um is not necessarily A bullish thing I think it's just short-term bullish but it's going to lead to basically and you made a tweet like um with the the whole um credit that we have in in in in crypto

oh yeah crime facilitates easy credit creation and easy credit creation is bullish in the short term um yeah that that's sort of I mean crime bullish I just think it's true it's it's how we built the back of many crypto bull paid for it in every single instance I mean that's where the 90% that's where the 90% pullback comes from right like the crime like that's literally like the crime part makes this go up so much but also makes it go down exactly yeah live by the crime die by the crime you know yeah I

mean that's like a for a Trader it's the best thing possible Right like a market that does so much crime that You like gain 10x more than you should um but then also lose 90 like the market goes down 90% like that's incredible because then you can buy it cheap again uh if you if you get to sell high but it's obviously not the best for for consumers in a way right like there's a there's a reason why retail has been so sluggish um like the the the retail Rush has been so slow and so

like just generally sluggish this cycle um in Comparison to price Cycles if you remember back 2017 once once Bitcoin started breaking out proper um like you the entire space was full of people that had no like no idea what the [ __ ] they were doing right and in 20120 2021 we had the same thing um and this cycle it's just kind of been like everyone that's already been in crypto just trading crypto um and one of the reasons for that is just because most people now have been in crypto Before um so like if

you say like crypto natives you you have a much larger percent of the population but also I think a lot of the people just generally have been getting burned by crypto cycle over cycle so much that they kind of like they got sick of it and the the Trump is backing it it is kind of a good excuse to just kind of jump back in full risk being like Oh but this is backed by the US so it has has to go up um which leads to funny market dynamics um but so Far we haven't

really seen it go into the old coins too much right like it's just been Bitcoin by and large like Bitcoin dominance just completely mooning um and uh most altcoins are suffering um because of the Bitcoin move which is actually quite funny to see except your bags magically of course your bags and meme coins oh yeah I mean xrp's been been up a lot yeah every day it's like up like 10 15 20% [ __ ] love xrp I mean xrp back in the day used to be like that coin which would bleed for months and

then retrace months of bleed in like one week like in one candle that's I mean that's literally my trade yeah that's the thesis there right yeah yeah yeah I'm basically like this bled out for the last entire last cycle yeah um and I think it can just reverse that in a week or two and start the whole old season start criming yeah I mean that xrp That's part part of the name [ __ ] love it um dude the way the way that they used to do Market making and stuff is [ __ ] hilarious

like xrp was so far ahead of the curve in 2017 um oh for sure in the way they they kind of made sure that this thing would go up um I wonder if they still have it in them or not um nowadays the competition is a little bit more tough um but back then quite impressive um I would like to see some of that crime Magic back do you remember the really extensive and to some extent successful gaslighting campaign that we had to endure in the early days where it was like xrp is not Ripple

and ripple is not xrp oh yeah yeah it's just actually [ __ ] unbelievable stuff yeah yeah I mean don't get me wrong right when I'm talking about like hey I'm I'm making a bunch of money on xrp I [ __ ] hate that coin and everyone that like is involved in it right it's just it's it's A good vehicle to make money when the market goes up perfect pause but should why don't you apply that same argument to mem coins I mean I I could that just like low liquidity um like I I mean

the depends on which one you're trading and uh I mean the stuff that is traded by people like if I can pump it right like if I can Pump It by just tweeting about it I will not want to to have like part in it and um that is obviously like a [ __ ] thing to say in crypto because you can just buy something and then tweet about it and then you exactly want to pick the one that you can move because then you're guaranteed to make money um but I'm just not a big

fan of that um so I just generally stick with the stuff that like that's why I don't really have big big problems tweeting about whiff and pepe anymore they're not that big that like I I can talk about them I can be like hey like this is like A trade whatever uh zero problems those are mem coins as well right like and I have no problem problem with them at all as same with Dogecoin like big enough for me to tweet about it um therefore I don't have a big big problem with with doing so

and I I feel much better trading them um if it was just running up a smaller portfolio like I'd probably be in the chend just trading the shitcoins too like it this is what people don't really get with my stance On on on mem coins like it I I think they are worthless and they're all going to zero at the end of the day but there's still some of the best places to trade right and during the cycle as long as you don't get get the end of the cycle wrong um that's where you actually

want to be it's just uh like the I [ __ ] hate the people um that do the whole meme coin Twitter influencer thing because what they're basically doing is they make they're playing a game where They cannot lose because you just have to shill your Your Meme coin you have big enough audience um and then it goes up like 100% just because your audience Apes in a bunch of people see it that that went up 100% byy and two your audience is up like 20 30% too um and then no matter what happens no

matter if you pick poorly or if you picked right or whatever it doesn't matter right you win regardless and I [ __ ] hate that and this is why I like have such an Aggressive stance on the Twitter mcoin stuff just because that's all it is right like uh um 90% of the people that are doing the whole Twitter meme coin thing uh just basically using their audience as kind of like risk-free liquidity right like like I can buy like six figures of this meme coin and then get my audience to put in like seven

figures of risk in this thing and then like I have a comfy cussion right like there's so much money that came in after Me that I didn't have to pay for that kind of like waits for my signal on top of all of it um to get out of this thing so like I have like a I have a confussion of of a bunch of suckers basically um that make trading so much easier for me and I I just don't like it um and that's why I like have a a public strong stance on these

things but I'm not hating the people that are trading these like if you want to trade these just [ __ ] trade them I dislike the Coins I dislike the influences that's all of it fine yeah I think that's that's at least been consistent but it's nice that at least that there's like a path to progression if that makes sense that make them you know if you're like a boot centralized exchange Boomer um it's not just you know Meme coins aren't purely confined to the trenches some of them get this escape velocity and become uh

pretty liquid centralized exchange coins that still trade pretty well and Still have a ton of volatility obviously at that point you're not like early to the super mega multipliers by the time they got into binance or whatever else but from a trading perspective you know I mean [ __ ] looking at mudang right now up 40% on the day right Brett and Bon Dogecoin there's still a ton of volatility there and once they make it to centralized exchanges especially in these conditions um it's kind of like a reasonable version of The Best of Both Worlds

where you still have like meme coin volatility and they trade well but also it's more likely not going to go minus 90% LP pulled rug it's over in one candle and and so you can sort of you know wear a condom essentially that's how I view uh centralized exchange trading of these meme coins you kind of let it escape the trender and take up a more familiar Boomer format without giving up like all the volatility and that type of Stuff but again it's about tradeoffs right cuz by the time it gets listed on the centralized

exchange you're probably not going to be catching the 2050x From The Trenches that's already done uh you kind of have to just view it as another tradable asset like I don't think I'm going to be a spot investor in meme coins that get listed on centralized exchanges I don't think that even if it works out super well I just don't think the multiplier by definition is going to Be as good as someone who caught it when it was uh only in you know on on Salan or pump fun or whatever else yeah I mean the

harder it is to access usually the more like the more multiplayers you can expect in the long run but also obviously more risky all that kind of stuff but usually um the more accessible something is in crypto um the worse of a bet is it actually is like when when something is complicated to buy and it actually sounds like a good idea or like A good meme or whatever um that's usually the places where you want to be because at some point people are going to make it E easier to buy and that's uh the

price is like they're going to make it easier but they're also going to buy before they do right um which is always quite funny when you see this is kind of what the exchange listings do where you have like you have a coin traded on like an obscure exchange and if it like gets enough traction um people are going to Accumulate it um for the exchange listing right and then you have like another exchange listing that is more popular whatever um or the first exchange listing and it's only been been onchain and then um those

people see it as a new listing and they're like oh [ __ ] it's a new listing let's go um but it's already gone up like 100x beforehand um but you don't have that on your chart so it doesn't really matter yeah exactly and uh yeah it's funny how That works I mean there are a ton of crime methods that you can employ to get around that right like again when they get listed on centralized Exchange the kind of the listing candle but most people don't really index based on that they just look at the

subsequent price action whereas if you saw the full chart that might make you view it differently uh and there's also the whole token Rebrand into something else thing like po po whatever Ave did the same thing And that's common move right ways to paint your chart basically you go through bare market and then best best thing to do is at the bare Market lows Rebrand get a new chart and then it goes up and people like holy [ __ ] this is up only dude yeah this is an high so early you know it's like

80% from its alltime high yeah there's no resistance on this yeah yeah yeah thing is it works like it genuinely works that type of stuff it sounds absurd but I Mean you asked me about unit size buys earlier and I mean that [ __ ] works too yeah yeah unit size buy is another one you saw some of these Tik Tok comments right me if I put this much into here and it goes to a dollar that type of stuff that's the peak [ __ ] um I generally think people overdo it with the unitize

bias when they go like a coin that is zero point and then there's like seven zeros and then there starts with a number um I think that at That point like it's a little bit overdone like that's just going to confuse people but when you have something that's like worth a cent or whatever or like anything in that range like numbers that actually make sense um that's going to attract more normies than than otherwise it's just like people are like I mean that's the the the key like one of the keys of success of last

cycle or like not even last Jesus Christ I'm getting old the the Cycle before cycle with xrp uh like 2017 cycle where xrp was like 0.000000 something um and then people like oh this is so cheap like it was cheaper than the scent if I remember correctly at the uh at the beginning of 2017 and then it had a big rally and then it was in that like in that 0.1 range is to like a dollar and people like oh it's still cheap right like it went a lot like it went up a lot but

it's still in that 0 point something Range um and then they bought it not realizing that it actually had flipped Bitcoin for a pref moment in Full full diluted value yeah that's true there is a sweet spot when it comes to unit size bias right you either kind of anchor to easy maths as to how much do I make if it goes to a dollar type of thing yeah or you have like a large number of zeros but not so much that it becomes mentally draining to do calculations pretty much exactly that yeah yeah like

the benefit Of the first one is again you just get to Anchor to a dollar and do moonboy targets like very easily the benefit of the second one is you just feel like you can earn you can hold a [ __ ] ton of the tokens you know like oh I have like 10,000 of this or whatever else um I mean this is just like pure sort of bull market handbook as to what matters you know like the memes where it's listed uh unit size bias fresh chart all these things we talked about there's like

a You know crypto crime handbook basically and I mean more project their tokens I feel like that it's been on that front like what the [ __ ] are you guys waiting for like crime is legal uh Zach is AFK um if you if you're trying to snipe better market conditions than these then I think you put too much faith in your ability to like time the market at that point right just just [ __ ] launch the token no no the problem like even like the it gets like you're completely Correct because I think

there's one big problem with launching during bull markets and it's basically launching a top valuation right you basically [ __ ] your entire project and I don't know why these projects are waiting for better conditions yes allcoins are not doing so well in comparison to bitcoin but that's the perfect situation to launch token in right like bitcoin's at all-time high um everything is kind of struggling versus Bitcoin at least a little bit and what You want is basically you don't want all the value go to early investors right like obviously that's cool for the early

investors but what you want is you want to launch something that goes up after like that's how you hit like escape velocity um you don't want to launch something at the like and that's what I think a lot of people and projects are trying to do at the peak of the market where they make like a shitload of money uh the the valuation is really high um But that not that's not necessarily the way to go right you need people to win uh and then they do the marketing for you um so basically I think

like generally when something gets launched near the highest like yeah that's great for the early investors and everything but I think that project long term is kind of nuking itself um and I mean it's quite obvious right like everything is is is cented around price in crypto so if you launch a token uh that Immediately goes down everyone's going to be like that that project is [ __ ] it could be the best project in the world right like if it's launched at the peak of the bull market at the Pico Pico top and and

then it just only goes down and you get like a 70 80% draw down because that's just kind of how the market Cycle Works everyone is going to disregard that project that's the biggest piece of [ __ ] on the planet right no matter how good it is um so yeah get to [ __ ] Launching because I don't think you have that much time left um I think in general teams shouldn't be trying to snipe market conditions to that extreme degree oh argument not to do it right like at the bottom of a bare

Market you can just be like well there's no volume no attention no users and uh you know will just fade into irrelevance there's no hype and then when it's too hot uh if you manage to find a team that cares about like their actual holders and Community versus the VCS I mean good on you first and foremost yeah that's hard to do yeah that one's tough but then you know there's also an argu the argument there is twofold first is as you mentioned like you know our chart will go down only if the valuation is

too high to start unless there's like an insane amount of liquidity and momentum uh to carry you through it but the second one is just like attention dilution in general like it's much Harder to stand out and compete when everything is [ __ ] ripping uh and then you decide to do your launch and you know there are 50 coins that are up 30% type of thing and why should people give a [ __ ] about yours I I just think there's no good choice necessarily U maybe you can try to optimize one or the

other but just just [ __ ] launch your project and then hopefully your work plus the market does the less of the heavy lifting I don't want my devs so to Speak uh trying to trade this thing you know like oh RSI is oversold let's launch oh RSI is overbought delay test net for a week like what the [ __ ] are you doing yeah I think generally um you're completely correct like this the red flag generally like if your Dev is trying to time like it depends on how big the project is if your

de is trying to pump your coin as hard as he can and he's trading like a tiny like he has like a tiny market cap coin uh godp Speed right like that's going to help you like you want the criminal death because uh as long as he doesn't dump on you right like you don't want to have him be that criminal but at least a little bit criminal in the sense that um they're trying everything to make this can go up um but uh generally I think that coins should launch um like and this is

a little bit of timing right like if you say like hey dude you need to launch now because the market Conditions are good and just generally don't want to launch at the PECO top of the the bull market that's technically also telling telling projects to actually time their launch right um when you think about it yeah if you anchor it that way but I think you can also frame it as far as the regulatory regime just got about as friendly as you could expect it to be because there's this weird lag where we don't know

exactly what Trump's crypto policies are going To be the Senate is very strongly Pro crypto which is I think arguably more important than Trump presidency right just the amount of money that crypto poured into these Senate races andar one I think that's way more consequential than like Trump they only won one H they only lost one time right like any like yeah insane respons cand candidate yeah yeah like I think it was like 15 to1 or something so I think that's the best Argument that like you know the regulatory landscape isn't so much anchored on

the president or the executive branch but it's the legislative branch where crypto ped a ton of money and one and you have an outgoing previously hostile SEC around the same time and it's like this goldilock Zone where you know it's going to be friendly but there's been no time to actually [ __ ] sit down and write the regulation yet the probability of Enforcement action is like pretty low and you can see that some exchangers are starting to take that exact stance cuz they're just like relisting stuff left right in center oh that's bance is

doing yeah that's crime dude yeah bance is having fun um but like if that's not the sign if if that's not clear enough to you as a as a Dev or as a project or whatever else then you're not really going to get a clearer signal than that I think at that point you then descend Into trying to time the market and stuff also we haven't spoken about a single [ __ ] technical level horizontal line this entire time so we're not speaking to like two people um but it's also quite hard to do it

in this context cuz like you know what are you supposed to say like it's it's just gone up I mean it's up like that's the good part when you can throw the when you can throw the TA out the window and be like ah I mean just sell when the vies shift I mean That's that's when when it gets fun right um it's obviously it's out of the comfort zone of most people um when you don't have lines to support your feces anymore sure um but it is where most of the money is made and

lost right and I think that's for that reason right like you cannot draw lines anymore you cannot risk Define anymore you cannot do anything on that front it's a lot of guessing and it's a lot of feeling um of kind of how The Vibes are and um people are generally uh usually bad at that the moment they get like a a regime shift comes in right because you're so used to the old regime like you're so used to trading all these lines in a range and then it just goes up to infinity and you're still

stuck in that range mindset and uh you get [ __ ] and uh just cannot take advantage of it and that's kind of I think a part of what's Happening yeah and I mean who can blame people for that Because we went through some version of it in 2017 right soort of 2018 2019 bitmex era the most UN reverting scammy piece of [ __ ] Market ever there a ton of people from our class who kind of cut their teeth on bitm who were very slow to adjust and that's being charitable and speaking from personal

experience to 2021 conditions where everything is just like everything is a real Trend every breakout is real it can go up for a few days in a row uh quite you know with Similarly sized daily moves without mean reverting that that that was that was a paradigm shift uh if you were trading you know bitm in 2018 uh 2019 I do have the daily chart open for BTC Bitcoin uh the last time you're such a boomer dude oh I know I know I'm you start with Bitcoin not with I know washed moodang or whatever mudang

Brett yeah popat Etc there's also all these AI coins as well um the last time we spoke about this I think was just a really well Ed Casual Friday episode so good yeah because I mean the discussion was rather straightforward at the time it's like hey look this is like a mega breakout across all time frames all the technical stuff all the regulatory stuff but the proximity to validation is still pretty good compared to what it could become right uh and and so the argument was you either just like close your eyes and buy so

that if it starts mooning you're not [ __ ] paralyzed chasing anything dumb Like it's still yeah it's a breakout but that it's not like crazy breakout where your approximate in validation is like 20 30% away so you just like close your eyes and buy some uh and buy yourself some mental bandwidth and real estate as well by not feeling completely sideline paralyze whatever or if you want to be cute with it you low time frame trade it and if you get a setup on like the 4 Hour 1 hour [ __ ] it 15

minute right like anything that looks remotely technical You buy that with the difference being uh you don't close it at the first trouble area or the first resistance or Range High whatever else you actually hold it and treat it as like a Coe position uh now obviously the Market's progressed since then and this point that same proximity in validation is you know a tougher sell uh than than it was last you can't trade that that way anymore you can't trade that way anymore we're too far away from the breakout Point so I need to go

[ __ ] open my door really quickly so this is just like a perfect segue with the daily chart open uh could you maybe discuss how it's progressed since then and maybe how the how the reasonings change now that now that we've had the push and I'll be right back yeah I can uh I mean basically when we talked about it last we were trading at like 75k um up 3% from before Trump was elected and I still remember like the Discussion the whole like yeah um the the breakout is sluggish slow whatever and we

talked about that being because a bunch of people front ran Trump and now are basically repositioning and I still that's kind of and I still think that's kind of true like that was kind of like what happened like a bunch of people position for Trump uh you got the breakout they were like ah I'll take my profit and then we got a little bit of churn around 75 76k and now like then Got the impulse move once we got through all of that um cool part about that situation was that um like we talked about

the the the invalidation was really close um now when we're trading like we're trading 20% is above where we were back then um and your like reasonably like reasonable daily invalidation would actually be below 70k um which is just useless right you cannot really trade that way like you cannot Have an inv validation 20% away not for Bitcoin anyway it's like 20% Now isn't it yeah yeah yeah it's 20% so basically like if if you wantan to if you want to have like a good invalidation it would have to be at 70k and that's useless

as [ __ ] um so that was kind of like the the cool part about that whole 75k breakout was that it gave you a chance to get in with very minimal risk um and U now that is not the case anymore um now it's just basically like you have to go to the 4 Hour and I think even on the 4 Hour you kind of have troubles finding entries uh you're probably going to have to go lower than that um and then any leverage wipe can like a leverage wipe can start at any moment

basically uh when the market goes like this right um will just take you out and that's just part of doing business right you basically you have to buy into strength you have to hope that the strength maintains and the moment it turns you have to get out Which basically leads to overtrading um and uh yeah so right now like the if you're not in from lower the conditions are so much harder um to trade this properly um which I mean that's it's just how the how the game goes when you when you get these when

you get these breakouts um you have to go very low time frame or you have to go to different areas so as in like not trading Bitcoin but trading altcoins but you're kind of in the same boat on the Altcoin front if Bitcoin wipes you're going to get wiped along with it proper wipe um like that [ __ ] like when Bitcoin wipes during bull markets uh you usually get like 20 30 40% pullbacks on on the alt coins right and I think that's what everyone is afraid of and that's why trading is so hard

right now um even though we just keep making new highs um so yeah I mean last last casual Friday was perfectly timed just because Of the basically the the risk to reward ratio being that good um now it's much less good but the Market's obviously teleporting and you can I think uh with the alt coins even if it pulls back a bunch um even if you get like that kind of wipe out um you just need to make sure that you're going to be able to buy it um and that you're not going to be

a forc seller at those levels um and however you get there depends wholly on you right like whether you just don't Want to get in but then risk missing the entire run or if you want to get in a little bit or if you want to get in like a lot and then just manage your position so it's like if it's at risk of wiping out you get out and then um but that gets you chopped it's the reason why at the beginning of the show I was like um I have actually been trading really

poorly still made money but traded poorly um because of exactly that that issue where you like you have to kind of Balance in between like taking a bunch of risk because um there's a very high chance of upside but also knowing that the the the risk is very high given that it wouldn't take much for the market to just kind of fully creater at least on the altcoin front yeah especially on The altcoin Leverage front I mean if you look at the BTC daily chart right it looks insane so it Consolidated for this long it

broke out and there's like like two red candles none of which broke Market structure or pushed prices lower at any point um in any material way right like the these so-called pullbacks like invisible on The Daily time frame and have had close to zero impact but if you look at what how altcoins performed uh during those moves and just the number of like long liquidations both on BTC and altcoins it's actually like a shockingly high amount or I guess not shockingly given it's what happens every [ __ ] time but relative to the size of

The pull bag it's like th those are pretty pretty big wipe outs so that that's exactly where the risk is it's that if you correctly identify you know the long-term Trend or the high time frame picture or whatever but you express your views via very leveraged altcoin positions with shitty entries the market could just sneeze and you are out of your position even though materially like absolutely nothing has changed and that's not like a random Fear mongering either that that's literally what happened like a couple of days ago uh you know Bitcoin sneezed and a

lot of these results were down like double digits on the day and looking at like open interest on a bunch of Etc like people people were getting wiped out on those types of Moves Like imagine getting liquidated with BTC at 90k that you've got to just fundamentally feel terrible as a human being uh when that kind of when that kind of [ __ ] happens Um and you know that like there's a there's a very high likelihood of of of an allcoin move coming right like that's the worst of it yes like you get taken

out of your position but you you're pretty damn certain that it's actually GNA go up like that's the worst part of like what the [ __ ] do you do because then you have to reload or whatever because you're like [ __ ] like I I lost the position All Season's coming and I think that's like consensus view um I Think it's a dangerous consensus view because it really doesn't have to um but I think the chances are quite good but then what the [ __ ] do you do right it's it's a little bit

scary like and this is why like Leverage is like I mean it's a gift and a curse right um and I just generally like stop losses in the market like market conditions like this where you all like invalidations of sorts um this why the retards uh do so well now because they don't have they don't Understand that they're actually taking a lot of risk or they don't care and the people that understand that they're taking a lot of risk they have like mental stop- losses physical stop losses whatever the [ __ ] um and then

those kind of wipes take them out whereas the like complete and other idiots that sit there and they're like oh it's even cheaper now let me wire some more money in um and they keep doing that until the market tops and takes everything away From them again um but I think like legit like in market conditions like this just trading spot um is going to be the easiest way to do it like you find something that's decent you don't over rotate you just take the loss like you just take the the the draw down if

it happens right like if you get a leverage wipe uh you just take it and um maybe you can add some on that leverage like wipe uh and then just [ __ ] pray that this is not going to be an like a not Normal cycle that doesn't have like an old season at the end uh and I think the chances of an old season at the end are quite quite High uh with the regulatory landscape that we have right now uh I think the the world's basically the S&P and the entire world stock market

would have to Nuke for to stop this like I think there's no other way um to stop the crime wave it's very yeah I we're getting a crime wave whether you like it or not unless you the entire Market's Creature and right now I think before Trump becomes president I don't necessarily think they would do it um after I could see it honestly and not because of trump this is this is always hilarious right like this is when people talk about politics and like for example like the whole Biden gas prices like where people put

like the whole I did that on the on the gas on the gas pumps right like the sticker the Biden sticker and people are Like don't understand that this [ __ ] takes some time right so basically um Trump becomes president does one thing the stock market nukes and everyone's like Trump's responsible for this right and it's not necessarily true right this in the same way where Trump was like Hey the stock market is like completely Giga sending when he was president and um it's not necessarily because of him right like this is not how

markets work um but people just kind Of attributed to those um so I could see like just generally how it's set up I could see like a bigger bigger wipe on the on the traditional markets once Trump is President um and then people are going to blame him in the same way that he actually took credit and I mean this is how politicians do it anyway right they do it with the economy they do it with everything and look it's very it's not immediately intuitive unless you either study it or come from a Trading background

to understand like the lag that's built into a lot of this stuff so it's it's much easier to just say this is the president this is the outcome therefore outcome comes from the current president you know uh but for a lot of these things it's there are structural forces at play there are time delays at play there are you know Global geopolitical stuff unrelated to that specific Administration that are at play it's it's actually very [ __ ] Complicated and when it gets really complicated the easiest thing to do is to reduce it to I

mean to the point of being wrong in many cases but just just just go back to uh this President is responsible because it's happening right now and he's the president you know just sort of and not think past that I do want to um in the spirit of Casual Friday try to theoretical discussions aside anchor it back to sort of practical reality and trying to be Useful uh in at this juncture of the market last week it was way easier like you know the real tempting answer is you should have just [ __ ] watched

Casual Friday last week because that that's when it was like more straightforward than not I think it's a bit tougher at this point and what also makes it tougher is when you're speaking like Into The Ether to like a broad audience you actually have no idea of like their risk appetite how they're currently Positioned the kind of time frames they like to trade on you know all those things uh which should massively under ordinary circumstances kind of change our not Financial advice answers without knowing any of that information is just hard to generalize you know

unless we go through like a very onerous process of building like a whole if spot and you're like 24 and have a job you know like doing that whole thing uh you can't really do it so but but I mean if we if We try I think at this point if you're still just like if you want I think like the simplest premise to start with is if you want exposure you should have exposure that that just seems generally true for crypto right like a lot of like if you really want something oh I can't

buy it yes exactly that's absolutely like what's the correct instrument to express that type of view I think it's spot uh because if you have spot the probability that you get leverage wiped Is zero I mean unless you're using spot margin or something but I don't count that as spot right I just mean like spot itself um so let let's just try to distill it to like very straightforward principles and I think the most straightforward one is if you want exposure you should have exposure uh and I think an important thing to understand is that

you don't have the luxury or the right to choose your entry if you want to be so indiscriminate with it um I I Think people often try to have the best of both worlds where it's like oh I just want to be like very chill hands off it'll generally go up have some spot exposure taking like a very uh loose and lacad isical approach not there's anything wrong with that but at the same time you know when you tell them okay well then just buy some then then they start looking sending you [ __ ]

15minute charts about order block fvg I think this would be the perfect 618 Retrace like no no no no you can't mix and match those two things together you know like if you're going to be in the camp of I think this is bullish I think the six-month breakout is bullish even if the Trump inauguration is like a riskof thing I think the regulatory environment is a much bigger lever I think crypto is generally going up and to the right then spot is the best instrument to express that view and you do not have the

y or the right to then Be arrogant about your entry like you've given that up stop stop playing Trader if that's your mindset and preferred way of uh taking risk in the market I I that just makes sense to me I don't know if you agree or not yeah I do agree and I I mean at the end of the day when you're trading spot like or like not even trading if you're buying spot um the big advantage that you have is basically that you don't give anyone the chance to take your coins away from

you that the Only thing that can make those coins go is by you pushing right like and that's like legit like a big big difference um like you you introduce some leverage even if it's low leverage um someone can take that [ __ ] from you and if you are certain that something's going to go up um you just suck at trading um and I mean like for example like I would say I've been sucking at trading in the last two three days um like you kind of just introduce The risk uh back into that

thing right like you're like oh I have found a a really risk-free kind of like really good opportunity but let me introduce a bunch of risk to [ __ ] it up um by uh introducing leverage and uh I think that's like one of the biggest pitfalls people fall into that don't necessarily like they they're not professional Traders and they're like I need to make more money than what I'm going to make and that's the one thing that's probably Going to [ __ ] you over the most yes I I mean that's completely true you're

like adding risk on top of risk um and you're almost defeating the whole point of you know oh I want to be hands off and ride it if you're adding leverage because at that point you basically can't be because you've now introduced the chance of you being right but your coin still disappearing which you don't get with spot um from a you know if we if we continue down this okay I think I think this is like a regime regulatory landscape Etc Paradigm Shift uh and I'm buying spot I think when we spoke last week

there was a very straightforward invalidation for that and I think in general if you're taking this first approach your invalidation should be much looser because you're not trading around your entry as much you should almost shouldn't think of it as a trade right or certainly less so um when it comes to invalidations for this type Of thing I think the harsh reality of the matter is that if if you want to be accurate about it your invalidation is still the same as it was last week you're just paying a higher price and a wider stop

for it uh and that's just a reflection of the reality that you miss the post breakout leg like again uh and then I I didn't think there's like an easy way to get around that cuz if you start trailing too aggressive ly and saying oh what about like the low of This consolidation at like 85k Etc I just think that's way too tight for spot I think that that that would be a classic example of like you know Trader creep basically uh when you convince yourself that you're a hands-off low frequency low you know frequency

of rebalancing spot Trader and then your Trader brain starts like sneaking in to influence your decision- making I actually think that's really terrible and I think that's terrible both ways When you're like a Trader and you let your spot brain take over and when you're a spot Trader you let your Trader brain takeover I just think that generally leads to worse decisions so we've answered the first question as far as you know if your kind of long-term Paradigm Shift oriented what to do it's like well if you want exposure get exposure it's not going to

you know Molly Cod all that more than it has to be uh but as far as where's the inv Validation for that I think the harsh answer is it's still the same which is that this entire thing is premised on the high time frame breakout and the invalidation for the high time frame breakout hasn't really changed uh and that's still at like what 70k basically 69 70k um now is that worse than last week yes is that surprising given the market moved up well no that's just the cost of doing business right you waited for

more confirmation you're buying on The back of more strength and you have to pay the price for that one way or another and the price you pay is a wider in validation which in turn can affect your position sizing and I really think the remedy there is from from this spot mindset it's kind of too bad you know like it's too bad there was an A+ opportunity uh that was basically last week and if you didn't take that I think it's almost arrogant to assume that you get another Lazy by spot and ride off Into

the sunset A+ opportunity one week later you know yeah um so so that's another spot consideration as far as invalidation I think the only other thing would be that if if you're not convinced by this I want exposure so I'm going to get some or if you're not convinced by having an invalidation 20% away which I don't blame people for like that's a position I can sympathize with um I think the only other option you have left is to wait for a flush Whatever price that comes at uh now of course that in itself has

different tradeoffs which is to say the flush could come from like 105k to 94 for example right yeah and at that point you're still paying a higher price for BTC than you would be now but the EV in some terms at least of buying spot there is arguably higher than it would be now again the benefit there is you're actually buying off the back of what is a contextually a better entry and I Think second of all with those flush type of spot entries uh your invalidation won't be the 70k breakout it'll be whatever around

the low of the flush is and or whatever horizontal type High time frame range structure we've built at that time so those are good things the bad thing is obviously you're not guaranteed a flush and when the flush comes it much it might come at such a high price that you'd be kicking yourself or not buying at 70 80 90 Whatever whatever but again it's optionality like at that point you're sacrificing uh the comfort of a lower entry price price uh for the benefit of actually you know having a setup and having an inv validation

that isn't [ __ ] 20 40% away so just to summarize the spot section i' love to hear your thoughts if you really want exposure get some [ __ ] exposure and if your stop is too wide too bad that's what happens when the market goes up a lot and you Want to be hands off with it that's just seems straightforward uh if you're still spot oriented and you want that exposure but not bad enough to just like Mark It by High and you want to have some semblance of a up for it and or

some semblance of a superior proximity to validation that isn't 20% away realistically your best option is to going is going to be to wait for a flush and a flush would mean what like double digit down on BTC and more on altcoins And then you essentially just start buying them when the whole thing is [ __ ] bloody uh you have the benefit of having a better entry contextually even if it's not a better entry in absolute dollar terms and you have the benefit of actually having inv validation that's it's not 20 30 40% away

cuzz that would be insane for flush type setups uh and of course again as mentioned the downside of that approach is it could either just [ __ ] never Happen or more realistically when it does happen it could be at a much higher price so if you really care about entry price you're going to have to again bite that bullet and say well this is a better setup even though the price of BTC is higher so I think that's a reasonable framework for spot what do you think yeah I 100% agree just generally like I

mean last week you had the the last week's episode was basically the moment where you could Still introduce leverage to the whole to the whole like thing um because you had a setup because you had tight inv validation you had all of that I I don't think you have like as like a a little bit zoomed out person you don't have the luxury of Leverage anymore it's just spot now and um that leverage like the opportunity to introduce leverage to to the to the equation again uh it's going to come but like you said it

could come uh Bitcoin could go to 150 and then pull Back to 120 and that might be an opportunity um but that's much higher than where it is right now um but that's like that's just how it is like Leverage Leverage is not something that you can just put on because you want to have more size Leverage is something that you can use I mean obviously the traditional ways like there's a bunch of like ways to H yourself with leverage all that kind of stuff like the complicated stuff but just generally like when you want

to Build like a bigger position you normally would just by limiting your risk which you can do with leverage right like if you're like okay I'm risking very little here because my invalidation is tight like we had like a 4% invalidation 3% invalidation last week um where you can lever up like you can be like hey I'm I'm Levering up 2x I'm willing to lose like um 6% instead of the 3% that I would normally do on this trade Um but that's a luxury right that's the luxury of having a good setup and if you

try to force the leverage into the trade um just because you want to have more Bitcoin more gains more whatever uh you're going to lose your money right um you could get lucky and you could buy Bitcoin with leverage right now at 89k and tomorrow it's at 94 and the day after it's at 110 and you just luck out basically but generally it's ill advised and if you do that too many times uh It's just gonna completely take you out and uh so like basically for Bitcoin it's like it's spot market now I think or

like a very low time frame Market where you just trade the low time frames and just take it as it comes um for the old coins it's a little bit similar um the the the the setups are a little bit more R defined because they've been struggling to keep up with Bitcoin but that's kind of like a like that's a they're wearing it disguise right you're Looking at it you're like oh this is risk defined but you know that like bitcoin's ried from 60 to 90k um and if it wants to leverage wipe your risk

defined setup is still going to get stopped out right um but there is some risk definition in some of the old coins at least uh but still like it's it's just harder now like you said I want to give people something like actionable I think it's really really hard now um it's it's much Easier like was much easier last week literally a week ago yeah um I think the spot part is covered now in both of us in passing mentioned you know if you're more actively trading this I think the underlying rule by definition with

these types of Trends if you want to be more active with it lower time frame trading it getting an entry it has to be done on well lower time frames because you're not going to be getting amazing daily signals on moves like this unless we Really start consolidating for a while and then you give the market a chance to build out a high time frame range or cluster and then you can do business but it's still a bit early for that with the amount of days we have right uh so then you know let's say

someone fast forwarded through the spot section was like no I'm like actively trading I like one entry Etc um I think Point number one as mentioned you have to be on the lower time frames I think Point number Two that's generally helpful is that in really strong Trends uh consolidations are actually a form of pullback so it's it's very common to you know if you've just come out of baby Pips or whatever to be like okay well after a breakout and your brain immediately goes to retest and that's it that's kind of the only acceptable

option post breakout um but I think in crypto at least with these types of Trends that's just a really bad bet to make because if it Retests very quickly or soon after the breakout generally speaking the breakout is like a piece of [ __ ] at least on BTC um it's fine if it happens later but in the in the short to medium term if you have like a really big breakout and suddenly it erases the whole thing it's like not a good sign not what you want to be trading uh so that the so

then the only retests so to speak uh that are acceptable would be on on Lower time frames and I'm talking like 1 hour and Below maybe 4 hour but even that seems like a bit of a stretch so uh realistically if you're trading around this type of thing uh most of your entries are either going to be based on uh low time frame consolidations low time frame ranges low time frame fast moving moving averages or I think the last one which is the most interesting one especially when it comes to altcoins which we'll discuss in

a moment is like forced selling on correlated pullback SL Leverage flushers um I really think that's your uh kind of toolkit uh if you want to catch a piece of this and you're more willing to actively trade around it rebalance Etc do you think I've missed any do you think some are better than others um what what stands out to you from that section or is it all hor [ __ ] no I mean it's it's not all hor [ __ ] it's actually like I generally think the the only way to properly trade um

if you don't have a position right now is uh Like waiting for the flush I the the problem that I have right now is I actually don't think it's gonna come uh anytime soon so I think basically basically have to gamble if you want to have like big exposure um because like the sensible trading I think you're probably not going to get um like I mean there is going to be a leverage flush but I just don't like at this point right now um after yesterday and how bitcoin's been trading I think That's kind of

Gone Away Bitcoin looks like I mean we had one right that's the crazy part it doesn't look like it on the chart but like that down day um two days ago or three days ago or whatever like if you look at the amount of long liquidations during that period and what happened to uh premiums across the board and altcoin performance that that was a flush of sorts I think in this kind of regime you almost have to differentiate between flushers that lead to like Significant down moves like on a percentage basis versus flushers that don't

have a don't do a bunch of damage to the Chart but reset positioning especially in altcoins you know but I also think that works both ways I remember there was a there was a BTC move at like 50 something K God when when was that um I think it might have been the no that's the Luna one there was like a BTC move at some point and we talked about it on a casual Friday where BTC itself looked just really [ __ ] good but then the altcoin funding rates and am amount of open interest

that was being ramped at the highs was just absolutely insane and that altcoin weakness spilled over and for a change actually dragged down Bitcoin with it so it kind of works both ways right like if you you know BTC sneezes uh and has a mini flush then your altcoins go down the [ __ ] as well but then if even if BTC looks good but the altcoins are like Way too uh you know the positioning there is pretty terrible they they can also drag down the whole Market uh in that kind of context so I

think in this case we basically had a leverage flush of some sort uh on like in the last couple of days because altcoins got massacred in like relative terms if you're super high leverage by being down like double digits a lot of them a bunch of long liquidations uh even though you wouldn't be able to see it on the chart If you were assessing the percentage move on BTC or the Damage Done or or whatever else so you almost have to adjust I think you must what I'm trying to get to is you have to

have like two types of Leverage flush I think if you're actively trading this one is like a soft reset in positioning when the froest of the froth just pukes as a result of BTC slowing down a little bit or consolidating and that's for like really aggressive Trend following and That happens more frequently and the second type is like the big Leverage flly where it's you know a nu can open interest liquidation going up a [ __ ] ton but then also actual [ __ ] chart damage so to speak on BTC and altcoins uh and

those types of Leverage flushers are generally better opportunities they happen less frequently and the and the moves are also bigger as a result so I think like a two-tier leverage flush Framework is appropriate in these conditions at least historically one being more localized where you know the cream at the top of the [ __ ] cake gets taken off uh but the cake is still intact and just the froest of the froth uh gets nuked and the charts for the whole on the whole especially for BTC still looks intact and you can't really tell uh

if you didn't know that there was a reset and the second one is like the big one like okay holy [ __ ] this is Scary now time to time to get involved and the first one happens more frequently but is generally less good of an entry the second one happens uh less frequently but is you know a better entry and you get better prices do do you agree with that or do you think I'm making two things out of one no no exactly right okay great and any other comments on the if you're actively

trading type because you seem pretty like from my understanding I I think out Of all the [ __ ] I mentioned like the low time frame ranges low time frame Trend following like all that type of [ __ ] you don't find those particularly interesting and realistically if you want like a Trader type entry you either just fomo in and bite the bullet or you need like one of the bigger flushers is that your stance yeah okay I mean you B basically right now you basically just have to have to take a shitty trade no

matter what um like I you just sit it Out and you don't take a trade which is a [ __ ] trade right like that's not fun uh when the market is like when everyone's printing um but that's like I think that's a reasonable thing to do like just sit it out um I just don't necessarily think being reasonable will help you much right now um like you need to be dumb um but if you go dumb and you take the trade uh and you bite the bullet the chance that you're goingon to take like

an absolute [ __ ] beating is Quite High uh but I think right now that tradeoff might even still be on the side of just being dumb and just taking a bad trade um and biting the bullet and just saying [ __ ] it like some of these like some of the the or coins uh I think have big enough opportunity that like taking a risk of having one terrible trade um might actually still be worth it um but I don't think that's the case for much longer um and at that point you're just Going

to have have to wait for the leverage flush and honestly like if if we get like if this Market keeps moving like it does that leverage flush might just get you and that's the shitty part right like that leverage flush might just get you to like the the complacency shoulder um like you get a nuke and then you get a bounce and you're like you bought the nuke and you're like [ __ ] yeah and it doesn't go back to the high and then just completely cres afterwards And I think at this point um in

how how this Market is kind of moving I think that's also a possibility where it's just like it just keeps going up uh until it's actually just topped um at least short term um as in short term like in for like a month or two where it's like you've waited all this time where it runs up and then you get your entry and all it is is the the first low before it actually just goes lower um so there there's no real good trade to be Had anymore um it's just basically closing your eyes and

praying or being able to just take the flush be nimble enough that if it's actually just the flush that leads to like that the top flush basically that you can get out with decent profit because even if it's the top flush right like let's say the Bitcoin goes to 120k and then flushes to 90 and then it makes a lower high at 100 or 110 like that 9 90 to 110 trade is still quite a Good trade right um but if you're then at that point stuck in your mindset of being like hey this was

the flush and now it has to go high it has to make a new alltime high and you stick with your position for too long uh that' be that' be like a bad trade I think so it it's really hard right now I I think the best cause of action unironically is probably just biting the bullet um on some of these but it's really hard to do when Bitcoin is trading at almost 100K Because that just seems silly right like it was trading at 60k a week ago um or like two weeks ago stud recency

buas on this the thing I tweeted about who the [ __ ] cares about the price two weeks ago I mean to some anyway but yeah that's what I'm saying but still I completely agree Market has some degree of muscle me like you know built-in memory anyway um and I mean the risk is quite high like that's just what you have to realize like if you buy Something that just went from 60 to 100K the risk of that is so much like I generally think last week's episode right um You had much less risk like

even of of it just generally going up right like from here on out like I think because usually it's like the price is higher but at least I have less risk because the breakout is confirmed whatever I think now you have more risk because we moved so much that there is just risk that it's just Greatest um and the reward is also smaller so basically it's just such such a bad trade in comparison but it's still better than just being like completely sideline coping and then buying the absolute peak of the absolute top yeah that

that that's the [ __ ] post I made like you stay sideline then you top blast it like the classic setup and then you puke the pull back like the trif factor um I think you raised a really interesting point like You were like listen even if it's a [ __ ] trade like biting the bullet excuse me Jesus even if it's a [ __ ] trade biting the bullet once isn't like the worst idea in the world and I think that raises like an interesting very interesting like framework question if you know you're taking

a [ __ ] trade there are different types of [ __ ] trades like if the market like what's the oportunity if you're right and there's a good payoff on that [ __ ] trade Essentially or you know what's the EV as a whole like for example let's let's say the market is just like a ranging piece of [ __ ] with no volatility and you take a [ __ ] trade like even if you're right your upside is like so capped that the [ __ ] trade working out like almost isn't worth it uh

especially if you take it several times but if the Market's like this and you take what's technically a [ __ ] trade uh at least it's somewhat easier to justify it's more palatable Than the first example because if you're right and the market bails you out as it has been in many cases uh then you can sort of at least start to justify it from a process point of view like it's still a [ __ ] trade but I think it's less [ __ ] than the first one because you can make at least a

plausible case for uh the reward being worth it if it works out um but but the overall theme and I'm sure you'll agree is that like at this point with leverage and stuff like that It's just shittier than last week that's just the reality of the the situation we can go around as much as we want in circles with regard to oh well you have spot and maybe you get a leverage wipe out and have an update validation but it's just like a worse range of decisions than it was last week and that's just like

the reality of a market that moves like this you know yeah uh I think it'd be really tempting and as I've seen a lot on Twitter and crypto YouTube to some extent when I've seen thumbnails and [ __ ] uh to basically make people feel that the market like always remains risk-free as long as it's going up like oh you know it's up from you know it's up to [ __ ] 90k from 60k but don't worry the opportunity today is just as good and just as clear as it was then and I I just

don't think that's true in in fact I think it's like plainly false um I I think you'd be better off at least being well armed With the trade-offs involved like if I want spot uh if I want Futures what kind of setups are worth it how price sensitive am I specifically to bitcoin like for example you can take a [ __ ] trade at 90 but you can take a really good trade if it leverages leverage flushes and ends up at 100K having gone much higher than 100K right uh but if you're references are such

that you're very price sensitive then maybe the [ __ ] trade is a better trade for you than the Higher EV leverage trade even though the Bitcoin price is better on the worst setup if that makes sense there's like so much stuff that goes into this and I think the only kind of public service if you will uh that we can do when discussing this [ __ ] is obviously talking about what makes sense for us but also at least making the trade-offs clear at any time and as we you know banged on about last

week that's all it comes down to really it's just different Trade-offs the market is never made up of like this like static risk profile and you just like uh you know you can essentially make the risk disappear or it's always the same or just wait for confirmation and then there's no risk like that type of stuff I think is just just really bad um trading practice and that really means that the real answer is you should [ __ ] travel back in time to last Casual Friday where this where our so-called job was a lot

easier Right yeah I poor people that listening to this that were listening to last week and just didn't pull the trigger and like I mean I'm sorry dudes I'm sorry is umh well but it is what it is I I still I we can talk about it he so [ __ ] boring though in comparison to a lot of other setups um but that might I generally think that might turn around at some point but it's like I mean I'm trading [ __ ] xrp now that's true um you just leave I mean you you

are the Manifestation of essentially the uh your description of ether's the midwit trade where you just kind of jump from BTC to meme coins and that's xrp at this point and Doge Etc although I will say that um I mean I'm trading xfp in like coin Yeah well yeah Jesus Litecoin with their social media strategy um that said the eth side hasn't been a completely dud from a technical point of view at least remember last week nice yeah do remember last week's weekly range from like the Highest close at 3.8 the lowest close at three

basically uh and there was a midpoint that came out of that at 3.4 I mean that was dinged perfectly um y there's some really good price action around that uh be it for profit taking or whatever else and that I think it's what's particularly impressive in this context is that look at the candles that led up to it it genuinely looked like it was going to Infinity with like what six seven red cand uh green candles in a row Um so that level was useful but I think we had a very clear decision tree last

time for E being like you know 2.7 breakout uh that should take you to three and then three plus is a banger and in general your update validation is three um do you has any of that changed like would you Reby 3K do you still think that's an update in validation do you have concerns about e BTC I think the risk here is that and I think this is like a very common Behavior with uh Weaker coins in general when BTC is strong people who like to Anchor based on technical levels will just find a

Coin that looks closer to a retest than BTC is for example and that gives them like a mental cushion being like okay well I missed out on BTC and there's no [ __ ] levels on it whatsoever but this thing has you know it's pulled back and has nice horizontal levels so I should so I should buy it instead and I think the re the real trap there is that in Itself it's actually not a good sign that the thing you're trading has levels you know like the very fact that it's offering you a retest

and it's giving you like very convenient horizontal stuff compared to [ __ ] just melting up through alltime highs that's a at least a local sign of weakness relative to the strong stuff not strength it's almost like a it's bait you know like oh well this thing is like really strong and it's up a lot but this other thing has a Nice retest and horizontal levels that's way more comfortable it's like well yeah but it has that retest for a reason and that reason is weakness relative to the strong stuff um so what do you

think of eth what do you think of the levels would you buy it do you think the logic from 15 seconds ago is correct correct or is it Furious uh as the resident e BTC bull uh where do you sit on this I mean I I just think like I want to have e and I like the E USD chart um but I Think it basically Falls exactly in the Trap that you just talked about like it's comfy because it's so close to support which is a really bad sign because everything's just full s right

but um I mean I generally what I'm going to do right um now that I've a bunch of like other crap like xrp and Litecoin and scarious how those are the best movers besides like completing other dog [ __ ] memes um and not like liteco and xrp are particularly good but um what I'm going to do is I basically I'm going to take like rotate the profits into E I think um but for that I need to make some more profits so I I kind of like just from a personal standpoint I just hope

that the E thing is slow and it kind of looks like it right now it looks like basically the E Trade is the pain trade where you see everything else mooning and E does nothing kind of reminds me of last cycle where e didn't really I mean e was really good but it Didn't really do what people thought it would like therefore it would just teleport to infinity and then it just basically um like made a new high after Bitcoin did um if I remember correctly and um like was Stronger after Bitcoin was dying um

not before um so I I just kind of I I I hope that it's slow for personal reasons uh and I think just generally I could also see it just from the chart that like the the E Trade is going to be the pain trade for a while I Actually also think salana is going to be in the same boat like I think it's funny because the salana people made fun of Eve for the longest time I think they're basically in the same boat right now um where it's like sluggish you have overhangs all that

kind of stuff and then when the bull market heats up and people are looking for anything that they can buy um I think those are the ones that are actually going to like go after the other ones um because the Other ones have less overhang are more like like it's easier to speculate on retail just buying them and then once that's done and over with um I think the like the the E Trade becomes more clear um but I mean right now like when you look at ebtc that's horrendous like that's a terrible chart and

it's the same it's honestly the same with most altcoins um the Bitcoin charts look terrible oh my God what the [ __ ] is each BTC dude that's actually disgusting like That's horrendous like and look at Soul BTC like on the on the like it fully retraced it's upov too um so BTC is a little bit more palatable than eth but not by much and then you go and you check like other stuff against BTC I meanin I mean Litecoin good against BTC like that actually like on the weekly uh I mean it's just red

candles but on the daily like that's actually say it's only like an eighty year downtrend on yeah yeah I mean High time frame that's not That great but like low time frame that's actually quite impressive um I en day yeah like that one day I don't know where exactly that came from but one day out of like uh one day out of infinite days yeah no but like just low time I mean I've been trading these right like low time frame strength there some of these and on others it's not and Litecoin for example has

the low time frame strength xrp has had the low time frame strength Uh Solana has had it much less and E basically hasn't had it at all um and that can switch really fast but I think uh right now um it's not time yet so I think if uh if you're trading eusd and you like e it it's in a decent spot I think it's getting close to invalidation again like it's like a decent invalidation where it is right now um like 2.7 2.8k you really don't want to go lower than that and you really

actually don't want to retest it uh in The first place so somewhere between um I think like 2.9 and 3.1 where we are right now e USD is actually interesting for a trade but uh I mean there's good chance it's just going to be outperformed by everything else for like the like the the short time frame and then at some point I think it's going to start outperforming but not right now I think it's a good example of again what we've been hopping on about about tradeoffs is like the trade-off here is That you've got

a nice technical level and better proximity and validation but that comes at the cost of the market being weaker by definition yep and you know like with other coins like you know BTC or some of these meme coins uh you don't have the luxury of that proximity validation but the upside is it's stronger so uh just always know the game you're playing I think it's like a really good mental process to start with like you know if I want to trade this I One of the implicit tradeoffs into the setup I'm taking or the asset

I'm trading relative to something else so on and so forth and there always is a trade-off I think that's you can't get around it uh do you want to talk about some of your bags uh xrp and then we can talk about some of the some of the memes as well I mean we can there's really not that much to talk about I mean XP the reason like if you if you go on the monthly for xrp yeah um xrp USD um you Can draw a very clean range between like there's a range bottom at

0.32 is and there's a Range High at 0.69 is yeah and uh we're breaking out of that right now um on this monthly and uh like I was like xrp unitized buy pretty good good um costs little um obviously costs the exact same as anything else but like two people two people this will be cheap and um xrp is also the retail coin of old and I generally think with this cycle uh so I Basically think a lot of the 2017 people didn't come back for defi season in 2021 I think a lot of people

basically like it was a different audience like it was the Tik Tok people in 20 21 like the whole like food tokens and then also the meme coins and in 2017 it was like a different audience and I think the 2017 people are probably gonna come back um now that we have like Trump in office and all that kind of stuff um and I think they might look for Something like xrp to start with before they go completely idiotic into like the dumbest [ __ ] ever um and just generally um given that gas out

now and he was kind of like going after xrp like that's like an added kind of added confidence to to just like the trade a lot of people sold because they were afraid of of sanctions and afraid of like regulatory attacks and those people um I think could also come back so you have a bunch of people coming back it's a no Name unit size SP is like decent and um it has a monthly breakout so that's was like that was pretty much all that all I I wanted um from like a coin um and

I basically bought into the first momentum I got which was like 0.6 something um the moment we started breaking out of the daily um I was like okay it's [ __ ] season it's xlp let's go and um I mean it's trading much higher now it's a little bit harder of a trade but it's still technically uh on The high time frames it's still nowhere close to where I would want to like where I would want this to go yeah where is that and is it like 18 it's 15 and 35 and then oh Jesus

okay and then much higher if it goes completely is this going to be one of those where you buy like the cusp of a high time frame breakout outperformer and then [ __ ] paper hand it on uh very possible I mean at the end of the day I Think like I mean yeah probably I mean if it goes to 1.5 and I get tired of like just like having to stare at charts all day because that's kind of what you do when you're actively trading I could see me just paperhand it and it goes

to like [ __ ] five doll after um but just generally uh I think it's at the cusp of a high time frame breakout it's perfectly situated for it um it's dumb enough to attract retail and it's uh interesting enough for like Older money um to play it and it's it's uh they do enough crime allegedly allegedly um for for Market to go up that's kind of like all the reasons that I had um so far so good right um there's no real like lower time frame whatever I was just like hey this is xrp

it just kind of feels right and then I just took the trade and um I did the same with with Litecoin um Litecoin you can draw a diagonal oh God on the USD pair on the USD pair um it's A very long one starts December 2018 oh jesz I the P chart doesn't even go back that far on binance and a spot yeah or likecoin USD on on binance also works oh I see you're talking like the mega [ __ ] trend line yeah yeah and the one that we broke below we yeah the one

that we broke below no no we never broke below it CU I've just redrawn it yeah but if you redraw it it's less clean I think we're basically we're trading below it Um and uh we now are in the process of reclaiming it um I found like the the the Twitter like the Litecoin inter completely unhinged um yes just hide some Zuma to talk [ __ ] about salana yeah yeah I mean perfect like that's exactly what you need to do um I I legit like those two things combined I was like it's reclaiming that

breakdown down I have mental illness so I like to buy coins that I've traded a bunch you can't get away from this thing can you oh I Mean it's just like when you trade some like it's it's like playing a game that you're very familiar with right uh you're just good at trading it and like then you're just like yeah I could make more money trading moodang but I also like would feel much less comfortable um and the chances of me winning on that are much lower even if the reward is is much higher so

I just took like I I like to trade the comfortable stuff where I'm like very in the know I don't like Trading stuff and I mean this is just me being Old Guard um of sorts um where someone just just just can decide like hey I'm just goingon to sell like 5% of this coin because he bought like three weeks ago and it's up 500,000 per and he can just one clip 5% of the entire Supply and I bought like a bunch and now I'm down like 80% in in 10 minutes uh and then maybe

it reclaims all of it um but just generally like this is very hard for me to kind of like identify Those kind of risks on the newer coins whereas on like Litecoin I know that I mean no same person is holding Litecoin in that kind of percent range and if they do they're not going to sell it um you know like not going to One Clip sell it so it's just like a comfortable kind of trade where I'm like it makes sense um it's kind of funny it's very very out there like I don't think

people should necessarily copy trade me on Litecoin uh I somehow never end up losing money on This thing um I always like I always come out with something um it's almost always much less than other coins that I could have bought um but just like if if you always win with something even if you win less um then other people are winning at the same time like is it that bad of a trade I don't know probably but um I'm like I'm fine there's something to be said for the familiarity there cuz you can size

up as well you know the game you know you're playing um Target wise obviously W make it there cuz you'll sell beforehand and what at me at 2 in the morning being like I can't believe I fumbled etc etc what are you thinking 130 129 130 n you go so I I let you draw the trend line right yes um and now you cap it with um uh horizontal at 300 and then that's your target wow okay and obviously I'm going to sell much much before that but that's your that's your target a okay and

in validation for Most of these I'm guessing is generally momentum oriented like if they start get back their breakout candles you're a bit like ah or is it inv validation on most of these is just like if I don't say I don't feel it anymore yeah it's got feeling in validation very useful for the audience um but no it's I mean it's basically just like um momentum loss yeah yeah or like just they go up too much and I'm like [ __ ] it St feeling sick yeah yeah yeah but just generally I Think uh

it's it's more of a more of a momentum kind of vies thing but as we speak Bitcoin is actually reclaiming 90k is not a hilarious sentence for us especially with like trading BTC at 3 4K type of thing and it's like it's reclaiming 90k is hilar completely insane and I mean it's funny because like you now that's like bitcoin's like going up you look through the altcoin landscape right and this is something that I've liked to do in the Last few days and just to kind of see which coins are good which coins are bad

and you scroll through the Bitcoin Pairs and literally everything is just [ __ ] nuking um and uh I mean that's kind of been the the name of the game right like the old coins cannot keep up with Bitcoin right now even at this market cap you that's that's the crazy part like that that's kind of insane and that's a good sign for Bitcoin I think um it's not necessarily the best if You're an allcoin holder right you're not having too much fun um or like not as much as you could have but just generally

for the state of the cycle when Bitcoin is this high and just [ __ ] just walks along and has most of the strength like the the the market gets much weaker to attack uh on any front if if it's the all coin leading oh of course that that's like when the borrowed time counter starts you know when when BTC is like anemic and it Feels like it's being dragged up or it just isn't doing [ __ ] and the rest of the market is just piling on risk on the back of BTC weakness that

that's when it gets really scary um yeah but the other way it's one of those extremes where like it almost all the time if BTC is like a piece of [ __ ] and everyone's pining on risk on alss it's really bad for the market but if BTC is really strong then that just that's just like a safety cushion for the market as a whole You know like it's so it's still so BTC Centric for the most part but I mean it's not going to help like I think a lot of people are kind of

sick and tired of it now um holding their altcoin that is up like 10 15 20% year over year and bitcoin's up like bajillion percent I think people are struggling with it now like I think there's like a lot of pain look at dot BTC for example can we just take a look at that chart yeah yeah and that's actually not one of like That's oh Jesus okay I just zoed out I was like there worst once and then I clicked on the weekly and then I just felt need to demonstrate the example like CU

a lot of people just index when when we talk about altcoins just think about like the the hottest trench meme coin and say what the [ __ ] are they talking about like BTC performance but these things had so much [ __ ] mind share in 2021 and still have a ton of holders for whom crypto equals like Layer one carousel right or crypto equals top 30 top 50 by market cap in like 2021 or even in 202 before uh this is you know we could also do atam BTC for example oh yeah that's the

one that I actually wanted to at BTC this is the state of I think the classical definition of altcoins against BTC just to just to make clear they're not sort of exaggerating how uh miserable this stuff is yeah and I mean if you're holding atam you are literally like Basically not up at all yeah I know there's no bull market for you like there's literally no poll market look at Adam USD on the weekly time frame there literally there's literally no bull market like there's no there's nothing there's no Market there was no bull market

like that you are literally trading at Price levels of 2021 unbelievable yeah and so yeah the dispersion this cycle rounds absolutely insane um yeah 2017 was easier Don you Know oh it was if you could trade it it was up you know yeah the thing with 2017 was that there was much less coins it's impossible to to pump these I mean 2017 was already a lot of coins but it's impossible to pump all of the coins that we have now yes like we have infinite like literally in pump fun has like adds like infinite amounts

of coins every single day right like there's infinite coins which means that like I mean it it's kind of funny because that makes Bitcoin more valuable like the more coins you make the more valuable Bitcoin becomes and I think that's like a really good wol feces for Bitcoin because basically like it makes it so obvious that this is like infinite like the the the altcoin space is infinite yeah it's a hedge against crypto debasement now not just monetary debasement and and for for some time it was like Bitcoin was actually struggling because there was like

a few old coins that were just like Doing different things yes uh and then they were stealing bit bid from Bitcoin away right like and you got like the old season and all that kind of stuff because like oh [ __ ] like this like Eve does this not and that's so much better Bitcoin now like every Oak Quin does this and that and there's like 50 layer ones a million layer twos um and you're like okay what the [ __ ] which one do I buy and then there's so Much choice that you're just

going to be like I just buy Bitcoin like it might not be as good in in transacting as fast as Solana is or it might not be as good as being a piece of [ __ ] like e but at least like I know what the [ __ ] I'm doing and that there's no real competitor I think it's actually like a really really good bull feces for Bitcoin uh and I think like going forward um you're not going to see and there's something that we talked about In every single cycle that we've been in

that you're not going to see Bitcoin be defron and we've always gotten [ __ ] for it right like especially bad in 2021 where people were like e is going to Def Bitcoin um I don't think it's ever going to happen um at this point like with every passing year I think it becomes less likely not more likely to happen um bitcoin's just uh too dominant and everything else is infinite in this space so basically you trade everything To make more Bitcoin um return to tradition 2017 style yeah and I MEC all that stuff opport

F there there's going to be opportunities in the old coins right uh I'm not saying that's not the case but I like back in the day I had a little bit of like I was like okay Bitcoin could get over taken but I think like back then I I made the argument that I think that would end crypto as we know it um just because we need that um like that promise that something has Value right because whenever Lindy Benchmark basically yeah exactly because what you the problem with E and soul right now for example

like people are making the argument that Soul should overtake e and whatever um but then something else can overtake Soul right and basically what what that does is it weakens the entire case for that area of the market like if you can if you can take like overtake e like The Benchmark of like the like the this the smart Layer of of sorts like the the the second big coin um and you just make a new one that is like that that's faster whatever you can always make a new one and a new one and

a new one and that kind of takes away um fundamental value I think from from those like from E and soul and uh Bitcoin doesn't have that which is good and I don't think it's ever going to have it um it's always going to be like Bitcoin at the top which is a good thing um I'm glad we Kind of sorted that out because that was a little bit of a scary Pro like Prospect of seeing Bitcoin get overtaken uh I think would have destroyed basically law of Faith Like longterm in crypto and I don't

think it's a risk anymore thank God for that um we've been going on for ages I don't know if we want to go through like the old coin list it might be a bit too long but uh I mean xrp is your bag I think in terms of mine share uh Pepe and whiff Given the centralized exchange Rel listings are back on the menu Pepe obviously like Mega alltime High breakout uh so is much more interesting than and I think there's like actually a really nice 4H hour cluster there just under 2K that still provides

a decent approximate in validation lower time frame what do you think yeah already did it on the already did it yeah but you know just looking at it that's really the only remotely reasonable area and It's not like a catastrophically far distance uh now relative to where it would be invalidated if you're playing perss that tightly uh on the whiff side I think it's a bit less clear uh because you just had this daily push through but I think again if if it's a hunt for proximity and validation uh this won't be sexy but like

2.8 I think the breakout level is as good as you're going to get uh if you want like clear proximity and validation cuz then if you Look at the 4our there's just like a 4our cluster built on top of that right um so that seems reasonable and in terms of outlier strength there's obviously like the all-time high breakout stuff like mudang um realistically what like if you look at how thing this thing's been marching up respecting like basically every single cluster on the way up uh for some time now again I think if this is

one of those I want a decent proximity in Validation and whether it gets there or not just determines how good my entry is uh 42 to 47 48 cents is basically the base of this impulse candle that doesn't seem absolutely insane uh as a so far away though so yeah that's what I mean percentage wise you look at this thing you're like oh that's like the level but that's 16 to 30% also this thing also moves like 30 40% a day so relative terms it's not too you just take it smaller size exactly Because that's

what you can do right like like if you're like my invalidation is 20% away that's too much for me then you just have to size down and take the trade anyway prely like if you take half your usual size your invalidation isn't 20% away it's 10% and like that's just kind of like study the alemy of Finance yeah yeah yeah but I mean as stupid as that sounds and like as much like everyone wants to just take Max risk but um there's one way to kind of make sure You can still take trades even though

they're very far away from the premium you pay for being late so to speak um I mean if you're late you have smaller size if you're early you have bigger size just how it is yeah you get paid for being early you know um goat AI mea isn't still pretty strong there's some a lot of it has transferred into like the really new new coins uh oh yeah go actually really strong today yeah I mean look it's got this diagonal meme right And then it's got Wicks into alltime high so if there's I think like

an clearance thrust through there is watch list worthy at least it's not like obviously dumb uh actually looks quite good yeah yeah I mean I I'm kind of over it the whole AI thing I think it's so stupid um I mean I was chilling go like much lower um I didn't buy any of it um obvious obviously I mean yeah he was saying I was like one of the few interesting bits and pieces and the Markets got after that so I agree there uh Bon I don't find super interesting at the moment at least compared

to yeah everyone's chilling everyone's chilling Bonk not a huge fan uh Brett that's another meme coin that made it to s changes uh proximity and validation there wouldn't be anything sexy I mean if you had to put a gun to my head maybe the pre- breakout cluster at 14 to 15 cents uh again that's like 12 to 20% away but it's also something that's up 20% today so you have to like adjust your position sizing for this type of volatility but any type of I mean relative strength plus any type of alltime high breakout would

be watch list worthy once again uh what else have I got that I was looking at before the show um that's I mean Ada looks good good ad's yeah I mean this kind of reinforces the the Boomer thesis right the the old coin 2017 uh Ada yeah I mean it [ __ ] horrendous though like don't Buy it please please God don't buy it but 57 cents is like a really clear at least on The Daily uh basically the the lowest close of this really ugly Wiki consolidation uh having cleared all the stuff that it's

cleared it really shouldn't be closing back below there if it's going to do an alltime high push I think this consolidation should be the pullback if it's going to do another leg that L it here in the first place but yeah for [ __ ] Ada Jesus Christ yeah If you look at the weekly um it's just very clean and there's very empty like there's a lot of empty space between 0 point like basically where we are 0.6 and one uh there's really not nothing um on on 8 yeah like 80 cents maybe first trouble

area or something and yeah but I mean that seems like you know like yeah um do I mean animal coins kind of been basically jostling for attention with like I don't know if you saw Nero the CTO version NE r o yeah I mean that Weekly chart doesn't look terrible that's one of those like if that's not the bottom then [ __ ] it type of things what do you think yeah I it's kind of like honestly like everything kind of doesn't look bad it's just like you kind of have to to pick the right

one it's really hard right now to pick the right meta because I think I think we're right in between metas right now so we had we had the whole dog cat whatever the [ __ ] um now like I feel like with the whole Xrp Litecoin thing like I like there's a little bit of a of meta shift where it's like old dumb [ __ ] coins basically yes um that's also getting some light Limelight and you cannot underestimate like how strong they've been in the last two days right like this is unar charistic uncharacteristically

strong thank you yeah in like they've been [ __ ] they've been horrendous some of the worst stuff yeah um and then suddenly like during like rough trading because Bitcoin was going down and people were actually like and this is why it's interest like why those are interesting to me because Bitcoin was going down and people I mean everyone keeps talking about top signals on bitcoin right like or just generally on the market right now so what what happens is basically people are afraid that they're buying the top and then I I looked at kind

of what coins were strong and what coins were weak and like stuff like whiff was Really weak Doge was really weak like a lot of these coins were like pulling back massive and then you had like like I said like the old guard like Litecoin xrp Ada like those dark [ __ ] coins were actually showing strength which I find interesting um so there's like another meta that could come might not right like this obviously can just stop this can just be like two or three players just making a betat um on which meta is

going to win And they like two or three players bidding uh Litecoin and xrp and Ada and that kind of stuff might be enough um for it to hold up better during during in Nuke um like we had like that could just all or it's like just early into the meta and then that was just the the strong outperformance and now you're going to get more of that outperformance I mean it's just like wrestling for attention in this environment it's like the catco catcoin dogcoin [ __ ] uh then There's like I think a distinct

subeta within that of nonat dog animal coins and again it feels funny saying all this in person but it's genuinely think it's true uh so it's like animal meta can be split up into cats dogs and then like other animals then there's the AI meta with some new centralized exchange listings recently uh and then there's coinbase Robin Hood relisting potential Securities meta that's the best one probably to trade like just from like a Like just not not thinking just aping I think that's probably the best one yeah just like a basically news trade plus momentum

essentially on strong charts uh and finally is the Boomer 2 probably on a roll probably the worst but well also just like very quickly do we talked so much about this being the crime cycle essentially running up running it up again yeah you know I've got the TRX chart opened on oh [ __ ] off I've been trying to get you to buy this thing for The last like 80% of its rally surely surely now I mean TRX is an alltime high and crime is back on the menu is there a better thesis than that

uh I mean I mean the USD P looks really good I like like we talked about don't buy this please look at the weekly trend on this thing it's actually likeu yeah I mean it's crime it's crime um it was early to Crime yeah I mean it's always been crime it's the OG crime coin um I mean On the BTC P doesn't really look that interesting um but yeah any everything else just kind of nuked on the Bitcoin pair so the fact that this went sideways is quite strong um and the USD pad looks insane

um but don't just don't buy this [ __ ] don't don't give Justin Sun more money do you think in general doing like the approach you implicitly described of pick a mattera look at BTC pairs know the trade-offs of strength versus retests and trade that way is like a Pretty decent blueprint for current conditions on alts yeah fantastic we just solved it mate yeah I think you're going to basically you almost only going to print if you pick the right meta so good luck with that like it's it's a one and four one in five

great um I like those odds better than my usual trading odds you know and then like and then you also have to hope like the Bitcoin stays up but I generally during sell-offs and this is why like and I mean this like it Feels so dumb because these are literally the worst coins right but during sell-offs like that's the best indication that you can get that there is interest in propelling something higher when it holds up right like if the entire Market is weak and like a sector is is strong during that selloff that's the

highest chance that that sector is going to outperform this is why literally why I've been trading [ __ ] xrp Litecoin um because that's Been the sector that held up and I think that's the the best indication that you can get it's not entirely like 100% accurate because like I said like let's say I'm like like I'm like okay I'm convinced Litecoin is just a misunderstood poor coin and it's going to go back to its former glory and I just put my entire netw worth on this thing right Litecoin isn't like it's not like a

lot of people are trading Litecoin right and if I put like a buy Like a buy order of a couple million um on this thing it's going to hold up better than everything else during the selloff and you can even make it like the the you can make the the Bitcoin pair Moon without mooning the price just by by having a buy wall there and there's not that many people that would dump into you realistically right um so therefore that could just be it but from like what I looked at I think like like my

Personal choice is like these dog [ __ ] dumb piece of [ __ ] coins that uh used to be cool and are now very much not uh I think there's the back holders are pretty much cleared um so I'm not worried about the upside the only thing I'm worried about is that it runs out of steam before it gets going like because a lot of people like hey you're trading xrp or like Litecoin or whatever there's Infinite Back holders right I think there's not Anymore it's been long enough um but I could be wrong

enough we'll find out we'll find out yeah we'll see if I come back on the show next week crying then you'll know that uh that I that I bet wrong excellent yeah I think this is fairly thorough and comprehensive uh we're grateful for all the comments last week let us know whether this week was helpful as well thank you to woo as always for supporting us in the show uh Don thank you for your time and have a wonderful weekend and we'll see you all next week bye-bye