this is sort of generational time to buy Bitcoin. Um, and I think we're gonna we're going to see exceptional returns from these positions. That's kind of where I I would position it.
You know, I've been I've been in Bitcoin a long time, right? And so, uh, you know, I feel like this sentiment is the same as it was in 2018, the same as it was in 2022. It may be even worse than it was when the FTX collapse happened in 2022.
Uh, so we're at peak negative sentiment. Everybody thinks the world's, you know, Bitcoin's over. Everybody thinks Bitcoin is dead.
And Bitcoin is not dead. Bitcoin is going to come right back. It's going to prove everybody wrong again, [music] you know.
So that's kind of where we are. And, you know, you can either if you believe in Bitcoin, and you really have to have strong belief in the in the asset, right? But if you believe in Bitcoin, this is the absolute best time to be buying Bitcoin.
According to Fred Krueger, Bitcoin is about to enter a phase where long-term accumulation, fear, and undervaluation could provide the groundwork for the next significant increase. He claims that while weak hands are pulling out of the market, and stronger investors are setting themselves up for the future, Bitcoin is trading significantly below what many models indicate it should be. We'll discuss why Krueger thinks this uncertain time could turn out to be one of the most lucrative times for long-term Bitcoin investors in this video.
If you're intrigued by bold predictions and deep financial insights, make sure to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and turn on notifications for more engaging content. Thank you for your support, and enjoy the video. Where do you think we are right now?
Kind of broad macro backdrop. [music] Um, Bitcoin, just take all the time you need, just set the table. We are at basically the cheapest Bitcoin's ever been.
Uh, we are at power laws. We uh we never had a full um you know proponents of the four-year cycle uh say that you know every four years we we go down. We never really went up to the point of where we would would normally go in a bull market.
Um, and we had a massive selling that was mainly caused by Bitcoiners, not um, not non- Bitcoiners, not the financial world, but the Bitcoiners, the OGs, you know, people who got in for, you know, close to a decade or more sold at 100,000. And um they als everybody sold in 2025 and they sold in advance of fall 2025 which was supposed to be the top of the market and everybody kind of wanted to you know frontr [music] run that and uh so I would say the the OGs have sold, the ETF buyers have bought, but there was so much OG selling that we're down 50%. And that's it.
That's that's the bottom. We have never been this cheap on every [music] every number of metrics. And what I think is we're we're going to have a hard rally uh at this point.
So, this is sort of generational time to buy Bitcoin. Um and I think we're going to we're going to see exceptional returns from these positions. That's kind of where I I would position.
What are those metrics that you think Bitcoin's incredibly cheap uh based upon? Other than the power law, you can and by all means go into the power as well. The number.
Okay. So [music] I think there's a lot of metrics but none of them are have the validity of the power law right so the power law is is sort of like if you look at bitcoin you say what is obviously we're in bitcoin because it it's going up because number go up right that's why we're in bitcoin but then you have to say well what does number go up mean right you know it it went down number go down from uh [music] from nove last November you know number has not gone up from you know uh November of 2021 right so you know you have to you have to be very careful when you say number go up right so uh you know the question is what is the kagger the compound annual growth rate of bitcoin right and in order to answer that question really there's only one way mathematically you can answer which is create a model of bitcoin prices and then impute the kagger from that model right so one model of Bitcoin prices is exponential growth model which is constant growth rate model right and so you could say okay let's look at the constant growth rates for the last 10 years well okay in January of 2017 Bitcoin is at a th00and right now it's at let's call it uh you know 65,000 so it went up 65x in um you know in 9 years okay well what is that in terms of a growth rate Well, that growth rate is pretty high. It's like 50 60%.
Right? Um, but is that compound growth rate, is that a really good model for Bitcoin? No, it's a bad model for Bitcoin.
Why? Because the growth rate is trending down, right? So, it it was really really high in, you know, January of 2017 and now it's not so high.
And so, how do you specifically measure that? Well, you measure that by saying, let's look at Bitcoin on a log scale. And then, you know, we notice as you have a a a a picture here that on a log scale, we're we're in a in a linear sort of uh regression and that linear regression log log has a 95% correlation rate.
So, it's a very good model, right? That's a very good model of where Bitcoin is. And you know, you will notice that the Bitcoin almost ever goes below 50% of that trend line.
Almost never. And right now, it's just a little bit even below the 50% level. So, we're just at the all-time low versus that trend line.
So, that's the most important number, which is how far are we from that trend line? That is the most important number. Now, other numbers, well, there's the 200 day moving average.
You know, a lot of people look at that. That's also telling you that we're at kind of a, you know, 200 moving average low. There's the, you know, uh, fear greed index.
Well, we're kind of all, you know, extreme fear yesterday. I think just fear today. But basically, by every metric and don't the really number one metric is this power law number, we are at, you know, max sentiment low.
Everybody hates Bitcoin. Nobody thinks it's useful anymore. Um, people think that if you want to make money, you just invest in AI [music] stocks.
Yeah, that that's the narrative of 2026, right? And that's usually a great time to take the contrarian view, right? So, if everybody thinks one way, taking that contrarian view is is often that's the best possible view, right?
So, you know, buy when there's blood in the streets. Buy when people, you know, think that Bitcoin's over. It's done.
There's nothing left. You know, where Bitcoin doesn't even make sense anymore. You should be in gold.
Uh, you know, you should be in AI stocks. Uh, well, actually, no, you that's exactly the time you're supposed to be in Bitcoin. So, it does.
So, I continue, Jeff. Continue. Yeah.
Know, I mean, that's that's the argument, right? So, you know, I I'm I'm very sensitive to, you know, um to sentiment right now. And I feel like, you know, I've been I've been in Bitcoin a long time, right?
And so, uh you know, I feel like this sentiment is the same as it was in 2018, the same as it was in 2022. Um it may be even worse than it was when the FTX collapse happened in 2022. Uh so, we're at peak negative sentiment.
Everybody thinks the world's, you know, Bitcoin's over. Everybody thinks Bitcoin is dead. And Bitcoin is not dead.
Bitcoin is going to come right back. It's going to prove everybody wrong again, you know. So, that's kind of where we are.
And, you know, you can either if you believe in Bitcoin, and you really have to have strong belief in the in the asset, right? But if you believe in Bitcoin, this is the absolute best time to be buying Bitcoin. All of these things are power laws, right?
So, price is a power law. adoption meaning number of Bitcoin addresses on the on the network are power laws and hash rate is a power law. Okay, all those things are growing just sort of continuously mathematically.
Um so it is a success. It's work. It's it's it's a it's a great success.
Bitcoin there's there's no uh there's no issues. It's just volatile, right? Um that's the only thing.
So it is volatile and it will continue to be volatile, right? It's It's not going to stop being volatile, right? I can guarantee you once we get up from here and we we're in the 300,000s, we'll have another gut-wrenching crash 150,000.
Again, is does that matter? No. That just comes with the territory, right?
So territory is things going to outperform over the long term every other asset. [music] It also is going to be more volatile than any other asset and you have to hang on to it. Um, in 10 years, Bitcoin will be at a million dollars a coin, right?
So, what I don't really care about, you know, Bitcoin for everybody. I care about Bitcoin for me, right? So, I my entire goal is I I know that Bitcoin is getting to a million dollars.
I just want to make sure that I'm along for the ride. That's it. That's the only thing I care about.
According to Fred Krueger, purchasing Bitcoin is actually the simple part. The true difficulty is in having the endurance to get through the trying times. Investors feel secure as prices climb during bull markets, but emotions can swiftly take control when Bitcoin plummets by 50% or more.
Optimism is replaced by fear and uncertainty, which leads many people to sell at the worst possible time. According to Krueger, every significant Bitcoin correction has resulted in this emotional cycle. Investors who maintain discipline, refrain from panic selling, and have faith in their long-term strategy are more likely to succeed than those who can accurately predict every move.
Please take a moment to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and enable post notifications for future Bitcoin, macroeconomic, and digital asset content. Before we go any further, now let's get into his powerful predictions. Now, uh you know, it's easier said than done.
If you're not if you're not in Bitcoin, this seems like the scariest time to buy Bitcoin, right? But actually, it's the best time to buy Bitcoin. The absolute best time to buy Bitcoin is right now.
Um, but you know what I would say is, you know, if you look at this asset and you know, I'd say step back a second. You're say, okay, if you want to buy Bitcoin and hold it for a very long time, let's just say over 5 years, right? um you're going to have to mentally prepare yourself for the possibility, not just a remote possibility, but the probability that you're going to suffer draw downs of 50% or more, right?
That's just what happens. Why? Because you have, you know, let's just sort of model this thing out.
It's something like a power law which increases at this point, you know, roughly 40% a year, right? but it has something like 65 70% volatility, right? So, if you have an asset that's going up 40% a year, but plus or minus, you know, um 60% ball, what's the chance that that asset hits a peak and drops [music] 50%.
Well, what's the chance it does that within 2 years? Well, you can ask Chat CBT that, right? Say, I have a random walk that's going up 40% a year, right?
and but it has a volatility of 70%. What's the chance that this thing goes down 50% from its all-time high in a 2-year period? And Chat GPT will say 70%.
So you have, you know, what's the chance that it goes down uh 50% from an all-time high over a 4-year period, 90%. Right? So my point is structurally if you have an asset with this kind of volatility and this kind of growth characteristics [music] you will have draw downs right that's just you will right so you know if you're planning on buying it and holding it like I am and like I have right you know um you are going to have massive draw downs right you just you it's going to come with the territory right now so then you ask yourself the question Okay.
Well, is there any way I can avoid that pain? Right? Is there really any way to avoid that pain?
And you know, there's there's a couple different techniques you can do. You can sort of use rebalancing and this Kelly criterion, which is sort of like saying, I'm going to keep a constant [music] fraction of my net worth in Bitcoin, right? So, you say, what does that look like?
Well, let's just say it's 70% of my net worth in Bitcoin, right? Well, actually, turns out that that's mathematically the right number, right? Like you can prove that and mathematically but well if you have 70% of your net worth in Bitcoin and Bitcoin goes down 50% you just lost 35% of your net worth right so [music] even if you're doing that even if you're rebalancing at the exact top right you still could have a 35% you know drop in your net worth so like my point is that pain comes with the territory right now you could say well you know I'm going to be the smart guy I'm going to come and I'm going to buy at the time.
I'm going to look at all these valuation metric. I'm going to get completely out of the market and then I'm going to get back into the market at in the low, right? And a lot of people think, well, that that really works, right?
Uh the problem is that doesn't work either. You know, that that doesn't work from uh from a lot of perspective. Like I can tell you that that doesn't work because psychologically people who do sell never buy back.
They never do. you know, they they basically just get completely bearish on the way down and um and they just they're out of the market and then the market comes back, roars back and they're just out. They're not in they're not in Bitcoin, right?
So, the only people who have managed to hold on to this wild bull, right? The only people who do it are the people who just, you know, you know, hold their breath, take the lumps and and ride it through. That's the only people who do it.
And, you know, I I know I know a a lot of Bitcoiners, right? And the ones that have succeeded are that that they're the people who just held through. That's it.
The key takeaway from Fred Krueger is that investing in Bitcoin requires more than just timing your purchase. It also requires patience and a certain mindset. He clarifies that Bitcoin's remarkable growth potential is accompanied by tremendous volatility.
Thus, significant price declines are a typical aspect of the asset's history rather than an indication that something is a miss. Long-term Bitcoin holders need to be ready for significant corrections, such as drops of at least 50%. According to Krueger, trying to sell at the top and purchase again at the bottom is the largest error made by many investors.
Although this seems like a wise move, the majority of people who sell during a crash never come back because fear takes over. When Bitcoin begins to rise again, they miss the comeback because they are so concerned about losing money. According to Krueger, the most successful investors are typically those who maintained their discipline, disregarded their immediate fears, and just persevered through the difficult times.
He uses investors like Michael Sailor as an example to show that being an early buyer isn't always the key to success in Bitcoin. Many people believe that the only individuals who can profit from Bitcoin are those who purchased it years ago. But Krueger contends that the most important question is whether investors today can weather future cycles.
What distinguishes long-term winners from those who panic and leave too soon is the capacity to maintain patience throughout severe downturns. Remember to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and enable notifications if you thought his viewpoint was helpful so you don't miss any updates. We'd love to know what you think about the future of cryptocurrency markets.
So, please share your ideas in the comments section. We appreciate your time and hope to see you in the next video.
